2022 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday
I got both title games wrong last week, but really feel like emotionally I got them correct. The 49ers QB injuries were unfortunate, so we have no idea how that game would have turned out. The Eagles did have the luck of the 4th down conversion (that was not a catch by DSmith), and the turnover on the play Purdy got hurt, so it was looking down for SF regardless. And I don’t know what happened in KC other than the team with the better coach and QB won. A corollary we have to remember more often. And I may ignore it in about five minutes.
So for this game, I don’t know. My confidence level for this game is low, a range of outcomes would make sense to me. Super Bowls are normally lower scoring and have nervous starts. But the Eagles have been fast starters all year with dynamic and consistent running options that have been fairly matchup proof. The Chiefs score at will, and again, have the better QB. For much of NFL history, the better team, especially on the lines, has won the title. That would be Philly, by a fair margin. They also happen to have better skill possession players, by a fair margin even after accounting for Travis Kelce. But in the last twenty years, the team with the better HC/QB has more often than not (often named Belicheck and Brady). That’d be KC, and that has already worked in the last half decade versus a SF team that isn’t that unlike this Eagles team. Here’s the difference, and why I’m leaning Philly.
Hurts is something else. His dynamic nature is going to be a big problem for a leaky KC defense, especially if Chris Jones is weak/sick or Snead isn’t really 100%. He has been hurt, but got two weeks off, then after 1 game a bye, then two relatively easy games where he didn’t have to take a lot of hits/contact. He should be closer to week 6ish Hurts than week 18 Hurts.
The Philly pass rush was already a strength. With the Chiefs O-Line not quite living up to its impact on the payroll, and Mahomes still having some lingering effects of the ankle injury, I think that plays a huge role. They signed a bunch of rushers in their prime or post prime to win a title. Now’s the time for them to ring up 6-8 sacks.
The Eagles were 16-1 with Hurts as a starter, and were rolling as the best team in the NFL only 6 weeks ago in a division that sent 3/4 teams to the playoffs and the 4th team was only eliminated with 1 week to go. Strength of team, depth, and they destroyed teams when they won. The Chiefs have won close games, and that’s a skill. But I think the talent edge takes over here. Finally, while Andy is fairly rated as the better and more experienced coach, I actually like Sirianni’s game management, timeout and challenge use, and general aggressiveness more. I like them to have some long drives that chew up time, yards, morale, and produce touchdowns instead of field goals.
So I’m taking Philly, in a relatively high scoring game for a Super Bowl. I’m glad the line is under 3 either way, because there’s no way I could bet against Mahomes in a Super Bowl and deal with more points than that.
Eagles +1.5 over Chiefs, 34-30
Props I like:
Hurts will score a TD - Just feels like that goal line push is happening once.
Goedert over on yards - He had a really high yards per game before getting hurt, and they haven’t had to use him since he came back. This number has been really low everywhere I’ve seen it because of that perceived dip.
Travis Kelce over 25 yards in each half - That seems like free money.
There will be a special teams TD - Good returners, shaking kicking, really good secondaries at returning turnovers.
Miles Sanders over rushing yards - Wherever it is set (seeing it around 72 many places), that’s too low.
Chiefs under rushing yards - Just seems like the plan will be Mahomes and running back screens (which count as passing, not rushing).
Record Last Week:
Straight Up: 0-2
By Spread: 0-2
Record This Year:
Straight Up: 168-97
By Spread: 133-132
Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2055-1134
By Spread: 1678-1605
