2017 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

I’m going to preface this listing by saying these are both stay away games. The four QBs are Foles, Keenum, Bortles, and Brady with one good hand. Watch the games, enjoy, but please don’t bet, I beg of you.

Pats -8.5 over Jags, 27-16

-I don’t know what to do with Brady’s hand. It totally could be just a bad cut and scare that he is already mostly healed from. It could be a broken thumb they don’t want to call that. Hoyer could be playing going forward. It could be a jammed thumb, with Hoyer ready in case Brady either can’t play or has to come out partway through the game. This creates fascinating strategy options. Is Brady just going to play out of shotgun, throw quick slants and seams to TEs, and run over 50% of the time? That would actually make sense as the Jags as weak against the run relative to the pass and weak against TEs. Playing in shotgun and throwing quick passes early would also likely push Dareus off the field, allowing more running.

Ironic Burkhead was the one who injured Brady as his return was one of the things I was most excited about returning and being utilized. I want multiple backs on the field as much as possible. The Jags are worse against the run, the best against 1 back – 1 tight end – 3 wideout formations, and have some slower linebackers RBs can take advantage of. I think they still will.

The Jags are likely going to regress, and against the stout NE defense will score more in the 16-23 range. NE will score more than that, and I think it is more likely than not Bortles will not be able to help himself. The Pats will take away Fournette and take away quick seam single read passes. They will make Bortles make reads and/or go down the field. NE still has strength in the secondary, and I think that is a tick in their column.

Eagles +4 over Viks, 19-16

-Quarterback A: 28 year old QB on four teams with a 22-17 record, career stats are 9752 yards, 61 TDs, 29 INTs for an 87.4 rating.

-Quarterback B: 29 year old QB on four teams with a 20-18 record, career stats are 8771 yards, 46 TDs, 27 INTs for an 86 rating.

I have no real idea what to do here, because the narrative is that Keenum is better than Foles. He likely is. But Foles also now has had time to adjust to the primary role and settled into being the QB again. Quarterback A is Foles, B is Keenum. As much as I like looking Keenum better right now, I do note Foles throws touchdowns in bunches.

My first blush is that the Vikings are better. The Eagles it appears are just too weak without Wentz. The Vikings have this smart, fast, variable defense that I don’t know how Foles can work against. However, that Vikings defense is also a bit hurt and beat up right now. That was a hugely emotional win. The Saints ripped through them up in the second half. The Eagles stayed tough all the way through their game. Sark was only part of it. The Eagles have a great defense that people are forgetting about. I’m going to say that Foles does enough, and Keenum regresses a little, enough in total for an Eagles feel-good win. Ajayi and Blount will be a big part of this, and so will Jeffrey if the Viks secondary is weak. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 163-94

By Spread: 132-123

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1260-683
By Spread: 1036-911

2017 NFL Week 19 Predictions

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Falcons -3 over Eagles, 27-10

-I feel bad for the Eagles, but this is likely the easiest one on the board. The Falcons have rounded into shape just in time, are sharp and experienced, and catching Philly at time where the Eagles have no flow. It is just hard to expect Philly to win this game or really be close.

Pats -13.5 over Titans, 34-17

-The number scares me, but honestly this should be a blowout. The Pats have been playing with one hand tied behind their backs for a few weeks now on offense, and it should all be unleashed. Their defense is much improved, and should dominate an inconsistent Titans offense with injured players in key spots. I like Mariota, but not this year Tennessee.

Jags +7.5 over Steelers, 23-27

-Okay, this is by far the hardest one for me to figure out. I’m arguably biased against the Steelers. I am worried about their health, with Shazier not playing and Antonio Brown not definite in his ability to dominate as usual. The Jags dominated the Steelers earlier this season, picking Ben 5 times. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen again, but 2-3 is totally in play. Okay, so there is the case for the Jags. For the Steelers, they have enormously more experience, more versatility at running back, and they are playing rested against Blake Bortles. End result...I’ll take the points but the Steelers to win SU.

Saints +4 over Viks, 24-23

-The Viks looks like the tighter team right now. The Saints are winning, but not decisively. Not going to lie, the Saints hurt my feelings by not covering last weekend. But I have the Saints going to the Super Bowl, and am not going to let up on that now. It is still Brees versus Keenum, and the talent at the running back position vastly favors the Saints while Lattimore can play Adam T well enough. The defenses are both good with impact players, so I’ll take the experience and points. My 50-1 Saints preseason bet stays alive.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 0-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 162-91

By Spread: 130-121

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1259-680
By Spread: 1034-909

2017 NFL Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Round

Chiefs -9 over Titans, 24-13

-This is a big line to lay for a team I am not convinced is any good. However, Mariota hasn’t been right all year and now Murray is injured. The Titans’ identity just isn’t quite right, and the Chiefs are a professional team. They should cover this nicely.

Rams -5.5 over Falcons, 30-23

-I was on the edge about this game, and perhaps even leaning toward the Falcons a bit based on prior experience. However, I don’t know I like how the Falcons play in big games, and the Rams have shown the youthful quality of not knowing they should be scared or intimidated. I have believed in Goff all year, and Gurley isn’t going to care it’s a big moment. He’s going to dominate the ATL defense, and I’m not sure Julio and Freeman are consistent or healthy enough to counteract that. The Falcons are also easily the more injured and tired team, having multiple high stress and impact games down the stretch. The Rams don’t have to travel, don’t have the baggage of last year, and are fresh and rested. I like them fairly comfortably in this game. Oh, plus Aaron Donald is a monster that there is no way to deny.

Jags -9 over Bills, 27-13

-Wow am I going to enjoy taking the winner of this game versus either the Pats or Steelers next week. Jags shouldn’t be laying 9 to anyone in the playoffs, but with McCoy hurt and I’m assuming either not playing or playing seriously affected, I can’t take the Bills even with the 9. Nice of the Bills to make this, but I would have rather had the Chargers in this spot to make it a game. Jags score on defense and cover the spread.

Saints -6.5 over Panthers, 31-20

-Cam is going to have to throw the ball, and I am not sure he can. Nothing from this season has suggested he has the weapons, health, or skill level to be an elite level passer right now. The Saints could have absolutely come into the playoffs better, but are a more complete team that has beaten this team twice already. The RB tandem in NOLA will get 35 combined touches and have a ton of opportunities in this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 160-89

By Spread: 130-117

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1257-678
By Spread: 1034-905