2019 NFL Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions

I really wish I could just start predicting games after week 4 each year. I mean, I guess I could, I just don’t feel like that is the whole exercise. My numbers almost each year feel lower in the first three weeks while we are figuring things out.

I feel like I have in fact figured some things out. For example my Washington-Chicago pick last week was based in Chicago’s underperformance, and what I saw as some tight games by Washington. Clearly now with evidence, it seems Washington is truly bad, and Chicago is the overly talented but QB poor team that will pummel bad teams. Basically the 2017 Jaguars.

We are getting to the point of the season I call “transitive property understanding”. If the Pats (a presumed great team) beats the Steelers (a presumed good team) in week 1 when the Steelers have lost their best offensive player, then well, the Pats are better but how bad are the Steelers? When the Steelers lose to the 49ers despite 5 turnovers created…well, now we know the Steelers are just bad (injury to Ben aside). But how good are the 49ers? They beat the Bengals and Bucs, and there’s not much there to tell me they are good. The 49ers have the Browns and Rams next, and then we will know.

Here are the picks:

Texans -4.5 over Panthers, 27-20

-Nice game from Kyle Allen, but the Texans are an established team versus one holding the edges together. If the O-Line holds up for the Texans, they should win easily.

Browns +7 over Ravens, 27-30

-Ravens should win but that’s too many points. This could be a fun fantasy game, especially if the Ravens lose OBJ in the secondary like they did Mecole Hardman.

Chiefs -7.5 over Lions, 31-20

-I have a weird feeling about this covering, but the matchup makes no sense to take the Lions. The injured secondary doesn’t help.

Chargers -14.5 over Fins, 30-10

-Ekeler owners, enjoy one more week. It should be a beauty.

Bills +7.5 over Pats, 23-27

-That’s just a lot of points. Bills are a reasonably talented team, and we haven’t seen the Pats really play a great team.

Colts -7 over Raiders, 28-16

-Here it is. If the Colts are really a good good team like so many are espousing, the Luck retirement aside they should swat this Raiders team away. I’m giving faith it will happen, but if it doesn’t I am adjusting for weeks to come.

Falcons -3.5 over Titans, 24-13

-I really like Mariota. It might be time for him to be done in Tennessee. I really hope there is a second act for him somewhere. Julio, let’s keep the TD streak on track.

Giants -3 over Washington, 27-20

-If you had told me even a week ago that the Giants would come into this week with Daniel Jones and no Saquon, be favored, and I’d jump on it, I would not have believed you. But I am legitimately excited about it.

Cards +6 over Seahawks, 27-29

-I want one more piece of data on the Seahawks, who are feeling strongly like a 7-9 team to me. The Cards manage to score and be competitive every week, so I’ll take the 6 points. I’ll say one thing, it might be only 2-4 wins this year, but the Cards are absolutely more exciting, and full of promise. Just giving Larry Fitz a final act to his career is worth a damn medal.

Rams -9 over Bucs, 31-20

-If the Rams stomp the Bucs, I will officially anoint them as the NFC frontrunners. I also gleefully look forward to the 3 INT game coming from Jameis here.

Jags +3 over Broncos, 22-20

-Broncos are worst kind of bad. Just old and not exciting. Flacco might be the most boring QB, and he is just competent enough to have no real job threat. How a Fangio team has no sacks or turnovers in 3 games is wild to me. On the other side we have a feisty defense and the GFMII show from Jacksonville coming into town.

Vikings +1.5 over Bears, 20-10

-Okay. I wish the Vikings would run an offense from this century. But it is relatively working, and I can’t really say that about the Bears offense.

Cowboys -3 over Saints, 27-20

-I really like the Saints, but there’s no way there should only be 3 points here. It just isn’t enough for such a limited offense. The Saints got a vital win last week, but that’s about all they could hope for.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 24-23

-Mason was fine, and improved during the game last week. But the Bengals have been feisty and able to at least create yards and points, late if nothing else. I’ll take the extra half point, especially versus what I truly think is a bad Pittsburgh team.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-6

By Spread: 7-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 29-15

By Spread: 20-24

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1436-782
By Spread: 1176-1043

2019 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions

Falcons +1 over Colts, 24-22

-Colts have played well and been a nice story, but Falcons are still a far more established and veteran team, so I’m going to stay with that for one more week.

Ravens +6 over Chiefs, 27-31

-This is a more a bet than Arizona is decent and the Ravens win was a good one over them last week. Chiefs are better and likely win, but 6 points is a lot versus a good team.

Bills -6 over Bengals, 20-9

-Bills are decent, Bengals are trash. Check. Have to reestablish expectations.

Packers -7.5 over Broncos, 24-10

-I’d feel better if the Packers had had an offensive breakout by now, but Joe Flacco is involved so its fine.

Lions +6 over Eagles, 23-26

-Lions are playing things tightly, and the Eagles are not playing well and are very injured. Taking the points.

Cowboys -23.5 over Fins, 30-3

-Commit to the bit Fins, commit.

Patriots -23 over Jets, 34-10

-It’s almost worse than Miami because the Jets are trying

Vikings -9 over Raiders, 26-10

-I wonder if we will remember the end of the first quarter last week as the competitive part of the Raiders season. Very likely. The Vikings however have made offense sad to watch, especially since Dalvin Cook will break at some point. Also very likely.

Cards -2 over Panthers, 20-17

-Wow, can’t believe this is a confidence pick for me. Cam should be shut down, he doesn’t look right. Also, I want some of whatever Larry Fitz is consuming.

Bucs -6 over Giants, 23-13

-I guess? I am so excited A. The Giants are actually embracing reality and B. The Bucs are going to be 2-1 and I can’t wait to take favorable lines against them the rest of the way.

Texans +3 over Chargers, 31-30

-Texans have to have an offensive explosion somewhere and the Chargers don’t look right. This could be a high scoring affair though.

Seahawks -4.5 over Saints, 20-13

-I just don’t trust a non-Brees offense to score enough points. Maybe they will and surprise me. But for now I’ll take Russell over Bridgewater.

49ers -6.5 over Steelers, 23-14

-The 49ers are finding ways to put up a lot of points, and Ben is not coming through that door.

Rams -3.5 over Browns, 34-29

-Rams aren’t a offensive whirlwind, but still winning with solid football. I love the 3 WRs and how they bring consistent but different things to the offense. The Browns can absolutely compete in this game, but I worry about the lack of consistency from them. The over though, seems safe.

Washington +4 over Bears, 17-13

-The Bears haven’t shown any kind of offensive consistency yet. This is a Jags/Bortles situation right now, and until they either get Truthbisky to go up a level or cut bait entirely, that is where they will be stuck. I of course can’t wait for the middle ground, cap killing, 2 years 36 million dollar extension instead.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 7-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 20-9

By Spread: 13-16

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 155-87

By Spread: 126-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1427-776
By Spread: 1169-1035

2019 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions

Ravens -13.5 over Cards, 27-10

-What a schedule start for the Ravens. Big line, but I don’t think the Cards can start the way they did last week and cover.

Chargers -2.5 over Lions, 29-22

-Pieces are literally falling off the team, but the Lions had to fight to a draw against a team last week that didn’t start playing until the last third of the game.

Packers -2.5 over Vikings, 26-20

-As a fantasy participant, please tell me that wasn’t really what the Vikings will be. It will be good only for Dalvin Cook, and then only until he breaks in week 5.

Texans -8.5 over Jags, 26-16

-Hard to bet against Minshew…haha I couldn’t even get through the sentence.

Pats -19 over Fins, 34-9

-I don’t even know what to say. That’s a huge number. But it’s really bad in Miami right now.

Bills -2 over Giants, 23-20

-I mean, who knows really? But I’ll go with the team with a quarterback.

Seahawks +3.5 over Steelers, 24-22

-I mean, I know the Seahawks didn’t blow the doors off the Bengals last week, but this Steelers team scored three points last week. The Seahawks won and are getting 3.5?

Titans -3 over Colts, 20-14

-Nice story Colts, but the Titans look like the “10-6 but they are boring and physical and well coached and wait, they are in the playoffs!” team this year.

Cowboys -5 over Washington, 26-20

-5? Gimme that. Washington threw everything it could against the perennially slow starting Eagles last week and still lost. I don’t love the Cowboys, but it is real.

Chiefs -8 over Raiders, 34-20

-Honestly, 8 may not be enough. Nice win by the Raiders last week, but Mahomes is going to light them up this week especially with the absence of our favorite Hard Knocks rookie Jonathan Abrams.

Bears -2.5 over Broncos, 20-10

-Almost seems like Joe Flacco getting 30 pass attempts does nothing to create points. It’s like the Ravens knew this.

Saints +3 over Rams, 37-24

-I don’t think the oddsmakers remember what happened between these two teams in the playoffs. Cute.

Eagles -1.5 over Falcons, 30-17

-I know the Eagles didn’t look hot in the beginning of their opening, but they opened a can in the second half. Falcons never got going at all. So, I’ll hit the Eagles number under 3 hard.

Browns -6.5 over Jets, 27-13

-Rough for the Jets. If they don’t have both Darnold and Bell this week, they might be looking at 0-3 before their bye and just already done.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 6-9

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 155-87

By Spread: 126-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1427-776
By Spread: 1169-1035

2019 NFL Week 1 & Season Predictions

The 11^th Year of SportsWorldBliss is here, and I am excited to spend some actual time thinking about predictions. So of course here are my picks put together at the last minute and extremely quickly.

2019 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots – Death, taxes, the Patriots win the AFC East.  

AFC North – Browns – I’m on board. I like the Ravens too, but the Browns are loaded. It’s time to take the step.

AFC South – Texans – Kind of by default. Titans are boring but only somewhat effective, Colts are a nice story but now have a lower ceiling, and Jags have two halves of a team that hate each other.

AFC West – Chiefs – I wanted to pick the Chargers, but the wheels are already falling off there.  

AFC Wild Cards – This is brutal. Ravens I guess, and Chargers?

AFC Championship – Patriots over Chiefs.

NFC East – Eagles – Cowboys are close, but the Eagles are still loaded.  

NFC North – Packers – What can I say? I trust Aaron Rodgers. Bears are very good, but the QB disparity overrules general talent.

NFC South – Saints – A competitive division, but the Saints are still loaded with talent and have Drew Brees.

NFC West – Rams – Hugely talented, but I’m interested to see what Gurley has, especially come November.  

NFC Wild Cards – Falcons, due to pure offensive talent and continuity, and Cowboys based on a reasonable defensive projections.

NFC Championship – Saints over Eagles.

Superbowl:  Saints over Patriots. Feels like one Brees-Brady Superbowl needs to happen, and the Saints have been so close.

Awards

MVP: Mahomes

-Hard to go elsewhere right now.

OPY: Barkley

-Opportunity, talent, youth, big city.

DPY: Aaron Donald

-People don’t understand how good he is. Still.

ORY: Kyler Murray

-Press and opportunities.

DRY: Josh Allen

-Just because people are excited about him.

COY: Doug Pederson.

-Every year it should be Belichick. But it never is.

Week 1 Predictions

Packers +3 over Bears, 24-23

-Bears are probably better, but Packers have Aaron Rodgers. I’ll take it.

Browns -5.5 over Titans, 30-20

-Browns should roll over this team. Should.

Ravens -6.5 over Fins, 24-10

-I am so excited to bet against the Dolphins this year.

Falcons +4 over Vikings, 31-26

-Vikings make me nervous. They have the “overpriced team underachieves and falls apart” vibes all over them. Falcons at least have a consistent

Jets -2.5 over Bills, 20-16

-I just don’t trust the Bills’ roster fully, and the Jets are a bit closer. Not having to drop 3 got me here.

Eagles -10 over Washington, 26-13

-Excited to bet against Jay Gruden and whoever replaces Jay Gruden in week 7 this year.

Rams -1 over Panthers, 30-26

-With the uncertainty of Cam’s health, I’m taking the defending NFC champs with strong confidence.

Chiefs -3.5 over Jags, 28-24

-I’d love to grab the extra half point here. But the Jags are too much of a mess. Maybe they will pound it and run clock and toughen up on defense, but I don’t think so.

Chargers -6.5 over Colts, 26-17

-Chargers are already an injury riddled mess, but the Colts will need some time to gel and find their new identity.

Seahawks -9.5 over Bengals, 17-6

-I don’t love the Seahawks this year, but this is a slogfest waiting to happen.

Cowboys -7.5 over Giants, 23-10

-Giants are going to have a long year, especially if they don’t think it is about to be a long year.

Lions -2.5 over Cards, 20-16

-Either the Lions slog out a boring game, or the Cards explode and we are about to see something fun this year.

Bucs -1 over SF, 29-27

-I’d love to pick against the Bucs, but I’m not sure Jimmy G is really ready to go. Arians might make them a professional team and everything too.

Patriots -5.5 over Steelers, 31-20

-Do I love this? No. But the Pats beat the Steelers at home. Rinse, repeat.

Saints -7 over Texans, 34-26

-Bigger number than I’d like, but the Saints are primed for a big run and the Texans will be figuring out all their new pieces.

Broncos -2.5 over Raiders, 23-17

-I picked up the Broncos defense in so many leagues. The Antonio Brown situation has gone past concerning to ridiculous and firmly in the area of “team effecting”.

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 155-87

By Spread: 126-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1417-771
By Spread: 1163-1026