NFL Slants for Week 5

Checking Down:

-The Colts clearly don’t trust Donald Brown. Addai is out of the game, and Brown isn’t in. He can’t pass block, ergo, he can’t play.

-The CAR-CHI game was pitiful. Chicago needs a better backup. However, what this really shows is that the Panthers are truly terrible. Collins: 5-13, 26 yards, 4 INT. Ouch.

-There’s Ray Rice!

-I feel bad for Buffalo. They played hard, and probably knew that they had their chance to avoid 0-16. However, Fred Jackson and Spiller should develop into a great combo in the backfield. They need run defense and some better offensive lineman.

-Amazing. Denver looks totally overmatched, the Ravens do a good job of making their one dimensional offense look silly….and Orton has 314 yards passing.

-Brandon Jackson only had 40 yards on 9 carries if you take out the 71 yard run, which he didn’t score on. Don’t jump all over him because of his cracking a 100 yards. He didn’t have that good of a game, and you probably have much better options going forward.

-Greg Jennings is an elite receiver….right? He has 80 catches for 1200 yards with 7 TDs in his last 20 games. I mean, it is good, but not great. And, he really isn’t a burner, or big, or a great leaper. And his hands are not great. I still like him, but I am not sure elite is the proper term for him anymore.

-Clearly Carson Palmer has not completely lost it, but he throws some terrible balls and balls that just take terrible bounces. Owens is putting up numbers, but is distracting and drawing too many passes?

-Josh Freeman is a real, grown up QB. He’s not elite, but he is serviceable. I see a little of a younger McNabb in him. Maybe the Bucs knew what he was doing when they drafted him after all.

-The Raiders are really trying. They need more discipline, and tougher play from the front 7 to be serious though. Oh, and a franchise passer.

-Roddy White (5 rec, 101 yards, 1 TD) is quickly turning into the most consistent of the NFL’s elite WRs, an NFC version of Reggie Wayne. He is an awesome blocker on runs and is one of the best at stripping INTs and potential INTs away from DBs.

-Vince Young’s numbers may look acceptable, but they are seriously skewed. He will screw up again, and soon.

-Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie made a great play at the end of regulation to intercept Drew Brees. But, for the love of all things football, get down! The game is over if you take a knee my friend.

-There are some absurd passing totals today, mostly in losses. However, Brees, Rodgers, and Manning are not among the big totals.

-Kevin Kolb may not be stylish, but he is accurate. I don’t see any reason why he cannot develop into a Drew Brees type of quarterback. Also, Vick is almost 30, and will not be the long term option there. Ironically, he has probably priced himself out of Philly for next year, and Andy Reid will want a real QB who can run the west coast offense for the long term.

Going long:

-SF is NOT the worst team in the league. I really just want to make a decent offensive coordinator work with this group for a few years and not allow him to be fired no matter the result the first year. Also, Gore, Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and the offensive line are all solid and getting better. Alex Smith either needs to do it or not. This team will be set up to WIN NOW next year player wise except for the QB. They also need to settle the coaching situation. Given this division, they can become competitive quickly. However, this year seems to be over for them.

-I love two announcers above all others: Jim Nantz and Al Michaels (sorry Gus Johnson, you are entertaining, but sometimes enough is enough). Nantz proves his worth by actually criticizing the officials when they screw up. He makes a great point: why can’t an official just be watching the game like the rest of us, on a large screen. Then, he can say “no, it is this way, reverse that call” rather than take 4 minutes. I am all for getting the call right: but we can do it faster than this in 75% of situations. 

Al Michaels will actually reference the fact that betting takes place in America (by the way, they can’t reference spreads, but they can show Go-Daddy, beer, and sexual health commercials during games? Really?). He clearly knows the spread and the point total every game, and somehow alludes to it. He knows it is why many people are watching, and thus gives that population some shout out. I am stunned we for some reason as a society cannot even reference it is happening.

Both of these points reflect that the NFL seems to think that their sport is “perfect” and morally untouchable. Their officially must be given the power of an omniscient being, to be feared and never challenged. And far be it to think that some of the popularity of the game comes from the fact that humans have found a way to make themselves a competitive part of it by gambling. They take themselves too seriously. It is a game. We like to have our fun with it. Officials will sometimes make mistakes. NFL, lighten up a little.

BLISS

And the 1st Quarter MVP of the Season is...Philip Rivers?

The season is a quarter done, so I feel the need to anoint an MVP. For me, this MVP is clear, even if I don't like it. He makes his team better, and propels them forward. He hates losing, and if not for him, I don’t know if his team would have a win. He has risen above injuries and suspensions, the loss of his leading WR and LT, and still has put up some of the top numbers in the game. He plays under a blackout at home, and is hated on the road. Despite that, he excels. For me, the argument is clear: Philip Rivers is the MVP.

I was looking for a nickname for Rivers earlier today. We have one for several other players (Peyton Manning: The Sherriff, Tom Brady: The Surgeon, Aaron Rodgers: Ace, Eli Manning: Easy, Matt Schaub: The Scrapper, Matt Ryan: Matty Ice, Drew Brees: The Machine, Mark Sanchez: The Sanchize, Brett Favre: The Gunslinger, Ben Roeslithberger: Big Ben), but I feel like we are missing nicknames for Rivers and Cutler. Both are strong personalities and many other cities hate them. Heck, some of their own fans hate them. I felt cheated when Cutler was traded from Denver: I felt had they stayed in the same division, we could have seen the QBs going at it at midfield during a timeout or something.

I have heard Cut for Cutler, and Raging for Rivers, but those are not good nicknames. So, I came up with nicknames for them both together, as is appropriate. Cutler is The Punk while Philip Rivers is The Brat. Cutler is overly self confident. He may be good, but I am not sure he will end up with a ton of production over the long term. He is too self consumed. Rivers is significantly talented, but has an over inflated sense of self and what he deserves. He reacts against anyone who thinks they are better than him. He is also overly willing to take it on himself. But, you know what? The Brat is succeeding.

The last two years, Rivers has played well enough that the average fan would acknowledge him as a top 10 QB, and let you argue for him to be a top 5. However, most people would not buy him being a top 3 QB or better. Now, I love statistics. Today’s date of 10-10-10 makes me extraordinarily happy. So, I am going to look at what Rivers has accomplished statistically. He had 4000 yards and 34 TDs in 2008, and 4200 yards with 28 TDs in 2009. Both are good numbers for fantasy and real life. However, those are not the numbers that got me to take notice.

The first big stat that pops out to me is his attempts. In 2009, he had 486 pass attempts. He had 8 fewer the year before that. That may sound like a lot. However, Matt Schaub had 583, almost a hundred more. Those 6 attempts per game add up. Rivers’ 486 attempts last year ranked 18^th in the league, behind such luminaries as Jason Campbell, Matt Cassel (who missed a game and still had more), and Matt Hasselbeck (who missed TWO games and still had more). That is almost a crime. It also begs the question, how can you throw for so many yards and TDs if you aren’t getting the attempts? That question led me to the second statistic that made me christen Rivers my first quarter MVP: YPA.

Rivers had so many yards with so few attempts because of his absurd Yards per Attempt. He led the league in YPA with 8.8 last year, and had 8.4 in 2008. Arguably, Rivers gets more out of every pass than any other player. He gets the ball down the field, and creates big plays.

So, if he has been doing this for years, why am I so hyped about him now? Well, that is because despite the loss of his best WR and Left Tackle, he is playing EVEN better. His YPA has jumped again, to 9.4 yards per attempt. He is lapping the field by more than half a yard over the next best QB in that QB this year. He has taken the Chargers on his shoulders this year. He has also responded to tough situations in a more mature way than he has before. He freaked out in the first game, but has since settled in and done what he needed to do.

BLISS

After note: I finished the majority of this column a day ago, but while I was posting it, the Chargers went down 12-0 early to the Raiders. Rivers was 1-4 for -4 yards. I watched closely to see what would happen. He finished that half 17 of 24 for 290 yards and 1 TD. The team went from being down 12-0 to winning at halftime, 17-15. That is a 16 for 20 for 294 yards run when the Raiders KNEW he had to pass to bring them back in the game. Tell me this guy isn’t the most important to his team so far this year?

NFL 2010 Week 5 Rankings and Predictions

Parity, parity, parity. I am hitting 750 in pure wins, but 333 against the spread. I noticed the parity also when putting together my top and bottom 8. Let’s see how this week goes.

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Green Bay (5) – They won, and that is what counts. Eventually, they will find somewhat of a running game, and then they will be nearly unstoppable. Charles Woodson is a hall of fame talent.

2. Baltimore (NR) – All they needed to show was that the QB could step up. Point proved. Also, Ray Rice isn’t nearly 100%. They’ll get better once he is.

3. New Orleans (4) – Like GB, they won. Also, they WILL get a firm running game back. I know Ivory and Betts ran okay, but Pierre pass blocks, run blocks, and catches so well, his loss hurts them. Brees will find his rhythm soon.

4. Houston (7) – They run it so well, their pass game will be awesome once Andre is back at 100%. I also have the return of Brian Cushing on defense as key to raising their bottom ranking on that side of the ball. He covers the TEs, pass rushes, and limits backs catching passes from the backfield. With Ryans, Cushing, and Diles, they have an awesome LB core now intact.

5. Atlanta (8) – Playing well, I am waiting for them to really explode putting it all together. This week should be a trouncing of the Browns. We’ll see.

6. Indianapolis (1) – They never could stop the run, but it is the injuries that worry me. The WRs and secondary are getting bashed, and those positions always covered for line and LB deficiencies. I am sure they will bang out 10 wins. However, it could be only enough to get ousted in the first round.

7. San Diego (NR) – A good team, so talented and vibrant. Rivers makes this team succeed. If they could get something for Jackson (Mankins from NE?), and shore up the pass rush, they can excel.

8. Pittsburgh (2) – A good team, but I just don’t know. The defense cannot win by itself, and although Ben helps them, the O-Line and WRs aren’t that great. I see a 10-6 season, but the Ravens are the better team just in their own division.

Honorable Mention: Kansas City (6) – they are a nice young team, but I think Indy handles them this week. A win over the Colts would force me to put them in the top 6.

Fell out: Chicago (3) – Cutler means too much to them, and even that should be an indication of their status.

My bottom 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

25. Jacksonville (31) – Just not impressed, no faith in the pass rush or QB. They did let a receiver run up 196 yards on them.

26. Arizona (NR) – They were 2-1, but they got 7 points versus SD and needed about 3 times that many. They are who we thought they were. Good luck Max.

27. Cleveland (29) – They did win versus Cincy, but they is not quite the feat we thought, and they let up 222 yards to 45 year old Terrell Owens.

28. Seattle (NR) – Yeah, the Rams are an okay team, but seriously?

29. San Francisco (NR) – The team is not this bad, but they just don’t play together well. See, you need a coach who is either a great team chemistry creator or a great X and O’s guy. They have neither.

30. Carolina (32) – A for effort, but this team is just not good. Explosion out of both their backs still got them a loss. Without Smith, this is even worse.

31. Oakland (30) –Run DMC now hurt, this could get ugly. Cable survives until week 10? I’ll take the under.

32. Buffalo (28) – This might be the only week to avoid 0-16.

And now, the picks.

NFL 2010 week 5 picks:

Bucs +6.5 over Bengals, 17-20

-The Bengals really need this game. However, that probably means 3 point win. Owens also used up all of his energy last week.

Falcons -3 over Browns, 33-13

-Dear Falcons: I do believe in you. The win over the Saints was nice, even if you did pay Garret Hartley to kick that badly. However, you must blow out a bad team when you get them on the schedule. If you do, I will fully back your claim as an elite team. Thank you for your time.

Jags PK over Bills, 21-17

-I know, this is the Bills chance to avoid 0-16. However, I just think the Jags are better.

Colts -7 over Chiefs, 28-20

-Chiefs try really hard, but if you think the Colts are losing this game, you don’t watch football.

Rams +3 over Lions, 20-16

-Lions without Stafford still makes the difference. If the line is still 3.5, take that because this should be close at least. Pretty sure the Rams are a better team. I am also sure Sam Bradford is already better than Stafford, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, or Jason Campell EVER were. He might hit his first 3000 yards game.

(Side note: Peyton Manning had 3700 yards and 26 TDs with 28 INTs his rookie year. Bradford can replicate that, right?)

Packers -2.5 over Redskins, 31-17

-I mean, the Redskins aren’t that good, right? They just hurt Vick and McNabb played on emotion last week. And the Packers are really good, just need a kick.

Ravens -7 over Broncos, 30-17

-The Broncos have no running game, and the Ravens are going to embarrass them. Of course, Orton will have 300 yards regardless.

(Side note: Imagine if the record book for most passing yards was: 5. Brady (2007), 4. Warner (2001), 3. Brees (2008), 2. Marino (1984), 1. Orton (2010)? My head hurts.)

Texans -3 over Giants, 24-20

-Cushing inspires the defense, and Eli falls apart. Also, the Giants will not be able to run because Bradshaw is hurt and the other option in Brandon Jacobs.

Cowboys -6.5 over Titans, 27-17

-Chris Johnson does break a big one, but it doesn’t matter. The Cowboys are better, and need this. I would love to see how they cover Austin, Bryant, and Williams. Actually, I am excited to see how they don’t.

Saints -7 over Cardinals, 24-13

-Max. Hall.

Chargers -6 over Oakland, 33-10

-The Chargers are getting in gear, and are a much better team. Ryan Mathews has a big game here, but Gates gets shut down by double coverage and/or Nnamdi Asomugha.

Vikings +4.5 over Jets, 24-21

-I don’t trust Sanchez, and think they get him to throw a few picks slash the Vikes also stop the running game. I think Moss either lights up Cromartie if Revis doesn’t play, or Revis if he does. Favre goes sandlot, but it works. The Vikings need this game much more.

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-4

Against the Spread: 5-7

Record this year:

Straight up: 25-8

Against the Spread: 14-21

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 143-76
Against the Spread: 115-106 

BLISS

A Tweet about Moss

                 Late last night, I was up late working on a project, and I saw this tweet from my favorite writer, Bill Simmons:  

Sportsguy33: Moss Minny trade rumor

               

So, I sit there for a second, and go, WHAT? That doesn’t make sense. In fact, I will give you all the reasons it doesn’t make sense. There are plenty of them.

1. You don’t trade players in season. It happens in the NBA and MLB, and sometimes in Hockey. However, in the NBA, 16 games is a reasonable adjustment period. In the NFL, it is the season.

2. You don’t trade a top 3 player in general. Moss is still one of the best Patriots. He affects the game. He makes Wes Welker so productive.

3. If they were going to trade him, why not do it in the offseason and work other guys in earlier?

4. The team isn’t sinking. If the team is sinking (like Buffalo), you trade your good players that might be a little older. The Pats are 3-1, with a QB on the wrong side of 30, and are coming off of a great win. They can win now. The window is there. And yet, Moss is now not there with them.
5. Randy Moss is one of the top offensive players of all time. I would make an argument that he is actually pretty equivalent to Jerry Rice because of how he produces AND severely affects defenses. By the way, Rice has 197 TDs in 303 games over 20 seasons. Moss has 151 TDs in 180 games over 12.25 years.
6. Moss make coverages move, and gets other people open. Randy Moss has also been on the top two scoring offenses of all time, ten years apart. I mean, that isn't by coincidence. 

                However, after my initial stunned reaction, I had thought of one past Patriots player: Richard Seymour. Quick story, I was at a Boston College game last week and was thinking of Seymour. He was my favorite Patriot, and his is still the jersey I wear. Someone commented on how he wasn’t there anymore. First, I was insulted that apparently this person has no knowledge of what a throwback jersey is, or that Seymour helped them win 3 Super Bowls. Second, I had the thought, “Yes, Seymour IS still here”.

                No, I am not saying this because Oakland is so bad he doesn’t even count as having played there. What I mean is, what we got for Seymour is still really important and a part of this 2010 Patriots team: Oakland’s first round draft pick. The Pats are planning to have a very high draft pick. Imagine if the Pats got Mark Ingram with that pick? Now, Seymour was drafted early in the 1^st round. He gave NE 3 Super Bowls and a high 1^st round pick. Did the Pats lose two years of his productivity? Yes, they did. However, they got higher value than he was worth. The Pats were willing to give away something good now to get something great later.

               This is the reason they made this Moss deal. A 3^rd round pick is pretty decent value for a player who they got for a 4^th round pick, got 50 TDs out of, and won a lot of games with. They turn assets into better assets. The Patriots care little for personal feelings, friendship, or loyalty. However, this is why they are one of the most successful franchises. It is also why they turn people off.

                So, this deal makes total sense. For fantasy owners (4 Favre bombs a game, minimum, plus Moss will not have a bye week this year). For the Pats. For the future. For the NE fans and this year? Not so much. But, who cares what we think anyways? 

BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 4

Checking Down:

-STL is impressive. I saw them with the longest odds to win their division. Really? They are 2-2, ARI has no QB, SF has no heart or brain, and SEA just got embarrassed by STL.

-Speaking of Seattle, are they trying to turn over their entire roster by December? Pete Carroll, I know you are excited to be able to cut and trade for people, but calm down.

-Peyton is a machine. The Colts will be fine. That defense is terrible though, especially the run defense. However, if they get a lead, they are still the best team in football.

 -Orton continues his great play. Why did they select Tim Tebow again? A great lineman or pass rusher wouldn’t have helped this team? (copied from last week, but it needs to be said again)

-Derek Anderson, meet bench. The pick he threw to Shaun Phillips was so terrible it wouldn’t even happen in Madden. Is Larry Fitzgerald spending more time in therapy, or calling in to vote for the other players in Dancing with the Stars so Warner will get voted off?

-The Bears without Cutler are not good. They need to fix the O-Line, but without Cutler it doesn’t matter.  

-The Saints make me nervous. They are struggling, and it is not due to the running back injuries. They need a bye to get Pierre, Reggie, and most importantly Darren Sharper back. He gives them an edge.

-The Ravens aren’t scintillating, but I still think they are one of the most balanced teams in the league. Ed Reed is coming back, and like Sharper, he’ll advance them a level. I like my Super Bowl pick with them.

 -SF, that was better. Good effort. You are not out of it yet. Hell, when you are 2-9 you may STILL not be out of it.  

-Washington caught the Eagles in a weird moment, and hurt their two most important players. I still don’t buy them. Actually, all this win did was open things up for the Cowboys to retake command of the division.

-Officiating has been terrible this season. The end of half issue with Philly was horrendous. There should be an official upstairs watching everything that happens on the field with the best technology available, and they can call down to the field and make obvious changes.  

Going Long:

New England impresses me for a number of reasons. They have a very young team. They are teaching people to play in key positions (O-Line, DBs). The overall talent is not incredibly high compared to some other teams, and some of the offensive key players are getting older or recovering from injury. However, they are still 3-1. 

What really strikes me about NE is how well coached they are. The game turned on special teams, and that is where you can see good coaching at work. Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the NFL (who else is even close? Mike Tomlin? Norv Turner? Mike Shanahan? Mike McCarthy? I think this is the top 5, but are any of them really on Belichick’s level?)
 

NE will be fine come December. I am still not sure they advance far in the playoffs, but they will get there with 11 wins. Belichick also seems significantly more invested than in 2008 or 2009. He has his mojo back, and he knows he has like 2-3 more years of Brady-Moss-Welker prime. When Bill is on (and vindictive), it gets ugly for his opponents. 

In tight games, coaching does matter. Too many times we have seen above average coaches get killed because of timeouts blown and penalties for stupid things (Hello, Brad Childress). Clock management is also something that consistently rears its ugly head (I am looking at you Andy Reid). The Patriots, despite anything else they do, will not struggle with this issue. 


BLISS 

NFL 2010 Week 4 Predictions

So, week 3 has come and gone. We are revving up for what I call the “real season”. Weeks 4-10 of the NFL schedule are my favorite. No one has won anything significant yet, and no one has lost anything significant yet (Do we really think the 0-3 49ers are out of it?). Some teams are still finding their identities. There is still time to fix a major problem with a team. Over the next 7 weeks, teams will be made. We will get the “feel” of the 2010 Packers, Patriots, etc. Vegas has at this point decided what teams are and aren’t, and lines will be set off of these impressions. Personally, I will make my decision by about week 10 as to my favorites for the playoffs and Super Bowl.

Weeks 4-10 is also the most key time for fantasy. Here is where the micromanaging becomes important, as byes happen. You have to make decisions on your pre season sleeps: most of the time it is either to play them or cut them, there is not much bench room. The bulk of your record is made up during this time, and you have a pretty good idea after week 10 if you are going to be dancing or watching college bowl games during December.

I am starting to see what these NFL teams are about, and my top and bottom 5 are as follows:

My top 5: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Indianapolis (4) – I know Pittsburgh is undefeated, but Indy is just rolling. They clearly are the best team playing right now. And, I am not sure Big Ben’s return in two weeks might not a DISTRACTION for the Steelers.

2. Pittsburgh (NR) – Clearly the second best team thus far. I hate doing the whole “give them points for having an inferior QB.” However, how they are playing right now even with Charlie at QB is still 2^nd best in the league.

3. Chicago (5) – Undefeated, and a serious threat. They can soak up wins in that division, especially after getting 1 from GB already. Martz keeps them in games, and maximizes the talent they have. I like the defensive speed, and also the special teams which can boost them.

4. New Orleans (1) – Still dangerous even if they are missing key parts. However, the injuries (especially to Brees) scare me. They’ll be fine, but Atlanta could win the division.

5. Green Bay (2) – The lack of running game is pretty painful. I still like my GB Super Bowl pick, but the key for this team is to stay ahead. If they score early, the defense (especially Woodson and Matthews) feasts on mistakes. This team can look dominant or hover with the game’s score tied.

Honorable Mention: Kansas City, Houston, Atlanta

My bottom 5: previous ranking in parenthesis

28. Buffalo (32) – They did show effort, but they really need Mallet.

29. Cleveland (28) – Just bad, but they did try. Why is Jake Delhomme coming back?

30. Oakland (30) – Just Oakland, just now their hopes are up for Gradkowski.

31. Jacksonville (NR) – So, Trent Edwards time? Almost as bad as Bruce Gradkowski time.

32. Carolina (31) – Just terrible. Two best players play the same position. Just give them 20+ carries each. At least the games will be over more quickly.

Seattle rises a few spots, Jacksonville takes a plummet.

And now, the picks are in.

NFL 2010 week 4 picks:

Ravens +2.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-This will be close. However, I just think Flacco versus Batch in a close game, 2 minute drill type situation, vastly favors the Ravens. Too bad Big Ben wasn’t here, these are always good games.

Titans -6.5 over Broncos, 27-13

-The Titans are better, and Broncos do not match up well. Chris Johnson should bust out here. Great line, it may creep over 7 though.

Packers -14 over Lions, 38-17

-The Packers need a “get right” week, and there are the Lions. The Lions are trying really hard, but they need a bye week in the worst way. When they get Stafford and Best back at full health, they’ll be more competitive. For now, this might get ugly.

Saints -13.5 over Panthers, 33-13

-Panthers are terrible. If the Saints are missing Pierre Thomas or the line jumps 14, think again. If the Saints miss Brees, then expect a closer Saints win, but no cover.

Jets -5.5 over Bills, 20-13

-In the no man’s land of 4-6.5 points, but should be a solid Jets win. I think LT and Shonn Green have good games, and the Bills are unhappy to pull off what they did last week.

Colts -7.5 over Jags, 31-14

-I would follow this all the way past 10. The Jags are terrible, the Colts are good. I know the Colts traditionally have problems in Jacksonville, but this isn’t the same team. And MoJo is not 100%.

Texans -3 over Raiders, 28-19

-The Texans do have a legitimately awful secondary, but really, Bruce Gradkowski, really? The Texans are much better, and they know they have to win the easy games because the division games are so hard.

Chargers -8.5 over Cards, 31-20

-The worst 2-1 team takes on the best 1-2 team. It is time for things to equalize. The Cardinals cannot hang with the Chargers, especially with some practice squad players making up the bulk of the ARI WRs. The Chargers should force some serious turnovers from Derek “fling it down the field somewhere within 20 yards of a WR” Anderson.

Eagles -5.5 over Redskins, 23-13

-I love Bill Simmons. But, I have no idea why he likes the Redskins so much. They aren’t good, and the Eagles are at least good enough. DeSean Jackson could have a huge game again.

Bears +4.5 over Giants, 30-27

-The Bears are for real, and I am pretty sure the Giants are not. In a game of scoring, the Bears can keep up better. If they play from behind, they will at least cover. If they get ahead, they will trounce the Giants. Either way, Bears get it.

Patriots -1.5 over Dolphins, 27-23

-The Pats need this game vitally to get some identity and stop the rise of the Jets and Fins against them. I really do think they are better. Brady does normally hate Miami, and it is one of his worse games every year, but I think they will be okay. This makes sense as a game where Moss goes off for big yards.

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-3

Against the Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 17-4

Against the Spread: 9-11

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 135-72
Against the Spread: 110-99

Rams and Chiefs: Bright Futures past Week 4

Rams and Chiefs: Bright Futures

                Parity doesn’t exist in the NFL. The same basic teams stay at the top, and a bunch also stay at the bottom. There really aren’t as many 8-8 teams as you would think, and they are typically the ones people don’t talk about. The Jags and Broncos have been mired in mediocrity for years, simmering around .500. We talk about the Bucs, Rams, Chiefs, Lions, Raiders, and Bills because they are bad every year. Actually, they aren’t just bad…they have been embarrassing. All of these teams share one quality I have talked about at length this year: a lack of a true quarterback.

                However, four of these teams (Lions, Rams, Bucs, and Chiefs) share something else: signs of life and reason to hope for their future. I find it perfect that the four teams that have something going at QB of these 6 perennial doormats are the ones developing. Raiders, Bills, meet Andrew Luck and Ryan Mallet. Please, meet them. The Raiders and Bills also both also have administration and organizational tendencies that are quite frankly laughable.

                The Lions and Bucs are doing things the right way. They have spent many draft picks on defensive emplacements, and skill players on offense. Both QBs have not proven anything but look legitimate and by all accounts have the faith of their teammates. Specifically, Mike Williams and Jahvid Best look awesome and like they could be difference makers. Both have some decent depth in the defensive backfield, with one or two veteran leaders left to keep things going. At least one of these teams looks like it will rise in the next few years, and perhaps both. However, the two teams I find truly fascinating are the Rams and Chiefs, for completely different reasons.

                The Rams I have long thought of as truly the worst team in the league. They managed to regress two seasons in a row from 3 wins. Although the Lions had the winless season, I really think the Rams have been worse. They could not do anything except run the ball a little. That was because Steven Jackson managed to make talent overcome situation. He might have been the only Ram to crack a top 100 NFL player list the last 3 years. However, they did a couple of things correctly. One, they got rid of some of their failures, including coaches and offensive line draft picks like Alex Barron. However, they did most important thing they had to do: get rid of Bulger.

                Don’t get me wrong, I liked Marc Bulger. I owned him in many fantasy leagues, especially in the early part of the decade. However, they were not moving forward with him, so why play him (and pay him)? It was wasting time and just making the team look worse (Cleveland Browns, take notice of this situation. If you cannot connect the dots…Marc Bulger=Jake Delhomme). St. Louis did the right thing. Even though the success rate of #1 picks for QBs has not been great in the past decade, they still went for it. They found someone that they liked. They drafted him, got him signed, and put him right in. They went through the process the right way. And, they got lucky.

                We’ve had busts at the #1 pick (David Carr, Tim Couch come to mind) and others not quite pan out the way we thought (Alex Smith anyone?). However, Sam Bradford, even through 3 games, seems to be what the Rams needed. He is a leader, the Rams are responding to him, and he is making the best of his situation. His receivers are not great. The TEs definitively aren’t helping, and the line is nothing to celebrate about. However, he has shown good quality already. He made one throw two weeks ago down the right sideline towards the end zone to Mark Clayton that about 10 QBs currently can make. Maybe less. Bradford is so accurate it is almost scary. I still do worry about his frame and the fact that his arm strength isn’t elite. However, he is smart, accurate, went through a good college system, and is turning ordinary (MARK CLAYTON) receivers into above average performers. The Rams should feel lucky about this package, especially because I pretty much just described Drew Brees. They are in good shape. The Colts and Saints have proven for years you can get by with an elite accurate QB and an ordinary team around them. In the NFC West? The Rams could be kings sooner than you think.

                So, I am clearly excited about the future for the Rams. However, the team I loved coming into the season was the Chiefs. I even picked them as a playoff team BEFORE the 3-0 start. Check the records. Here is why:

-They have a proven coach who has a clear plan. Haley is focused. He has given his offense and defense to very proven coordinators in Weis and Romeo. They have worked together, and with GM Scott Pioli. None have been true superstars away from Bill Belichick, but the consistency and familiarity is what makes this a good situation.

-The special teams is awesome. Kicking is at least adequate, but the return game is excellent. Not since the days of Dante Hall has this team had such dynamic options. And, they have two! McCluster and Arenas are both awesome, for punts and kickoffs.

-KC drafted heavily on defense. The DLine is now set, and the additions of Arenas and Berry make the defensive backfield dynamic.

-The team took 2 years to add all those DLine players and let them mature. Then, this year they unleashed players on offense that serve specific purposes. Between Charles and McCluster, they have dynamic players that can score from the backfield, the flats, or by going out in routes down the field.

-They have consistency and veterans that do something needed. Thomas Jones is a pounder and leader in the locker room. Chambers, Derrick Johnson, and Bowe have been around a few years, know what they are doing, and you know what you are going to get from them. Mike Vrabel provides a championship pedigree, and is still a viable force on the edge. He also links well to the front offense.

-I really like the offense because while it is not dynamic, it is versatile. It can create points no matter how the defense is arrayed against them. They can pound the run, or run in flashes. They can throw short, do the screen game, go with possession routes, or go deep. It isn’t always pretty, but it works. And, they minimize the pressure on Cassel.

                Yes, I got this far without discussing Cassel. I am not fully sold on him either. However, he is consistent. He is smart, still young, and has a grip on what his job is. Haley clearly knows what he has. The Chiefs at minimum have a serviceable passer who will probably get better and grow further into the system. I see a lot of Eli Manning in him, and that did get the Giants a ring.  

Finally, the Chiefs pass the simple test for determining whether a team is a contender:

A.      Is the QB good enough to not kill them? Yes

B.      Do they have at least one dynamic offensive player? Yes, two

C.      Do they have enough of a running power to kill the clock at the end of games? Yes

D.      Can they stop an opposing running game from killing the clock on them? Yes

E.       Do they have good special teams? Yes

If you hit these questions, you can at least be competitive. The Chiefs may do more than that, especially in the next few years.

Coming tomorrow, my week 4 picks.