NFL Slants for Week 10

Checking Down:

-NE made a statement….that Pittsburgh can be beaten when they don’t have a LT or Aaron Smith

-ATL and BAL both impressed me, and it was a game where someone had to lose but both won in the long run. Baltimore came out much better than Pittsburgh this weekend

-Congrats Buffalo, you got one. You might only get that one, so enjoy it. Detroit would have won that game by 14 if they had Stafford healthy

-Say what you want about Chicago being the worst 6-3 team in history (they might be), but they find ways to win games, and Cutler looks good when protected. If they draft/sign some good O-Lineman and a good WR next year (Vincent Jackson?), this could be a good team next.

-That being said, I am praying the Bears get in the playoffs so I can pick against them first round

-Childress firing in 5,4,3,2….

-The Jets deserve to be about 5-3-1, winning maybe 1 out of 3 of their fluke games and getting a tie in another. I still think Sanchez will self destruct in the playoffs despite their inflated win total

-Houston, that was tough. KNOCK THE BALL DOWN!

-Carolina, wow

-Tampa Bay made a great case for a being a good but not great team. They are doing the “beat the bad teams” thing, but not rising up against tough teams. This team will benefit from a playoff experience and be a force next year

-Indy is getting it done and will be there in the end, but if they are on the road at Baltimore, Pitt, or New England in the playoffs in winter, it could be bad. Actually, we are getting a preview of that next week….

-Denver erupted, but it was just Kansas City unable to keep pace. This is why the Chiefs are going to top out at about 9 wins, and need to be more dynamic. However, Denver was due for a big week. They are going to wish they saved some energy when San Diego creams them next week.

-Seattle/Arizona….eh, meh

-The Giants got “CLE-NE”d, it was their trap game to a close foe, and that was it. However, I would take ATL/NO over them in the playoffs because this tremendous tendency to self destruct and look terrible

-And Vick scores again……and his salary goes up to 12 million a year next year….

-Sam Bradford proves, in a loss, how he is going to be awesome. Seriously, 12 of 42 passes hit the ground, with those receivers. STL must be doing back flips

-Troy Smith should remain the QB for San Fran until further notice….don’t worry Mike Singletary, I’ll tell you when to switch

Going Long:

-MIA winning despite their QB losses was admirable. Thigpen isn’t terrible, but this win was a more a statement of how Tennessee isn’t quite there yet. I don’t see enough to make them a true contender or even challenge a flawed and hurt Indianapolis for the division crown.

You know, Tennessee is pretty consistency a decent or better team but only has one Super Bowl appearance and 0 wins in the Jeff Fisher Era. This is because the team is tough on Defense, has good O-Line play, and good running. However, the quick, athletic QB does not win the big game. The field general does. Brady/Manning/Manning/Brees and Roeslithberger have won the Super Bowls this decade, and what is the correlation there? Good passing in the two minute drill and great WR play. Tennessee can get 10 wins on toughness, but not win the big game.

-Donovan McNabb confuses me.

Physically, he looks good. He is big, strong, and still really mobile. For 33, he looks pretty good in terms of energy and youthfulness. However, his numbers have never been awesome, especially because he never finishes complete seasons. And yet, because he is on year 13, he has a good chance to end up in the high echelon passing charts. He has gone to 4 Conference title games and over a decade of playoffs, but never won the Super Bowl. So, he’s Jim Kelly? You know, Andy Reid’s success with Kolb and Vick (and to a lesser degree with Feely, Detmer, Garcia, etc), leads me to believe while Donovan was good, Reid made him much better, as did the system they run. 

So, Donovan got benched last week. They gave up a second round pick, have no real second QB (Rex Grossman, don’t get me started), and then benched him when they needed him most. Was he slow in the 2 minute drill? Yes, he was. But, he still gives them the best chance to win by my examination. So, he plays for this season. But, he is only going to get older and slower next year (as will Shanny, by the way). So, why ink him to a 5 year 78 million dollars extension? I understand that if he is cut before next year he only gets 4 million, but that 4 million is wasted money even by itself. They will probably end up playing him in 2011 due to lack of options, really figure out they are screwed, and then regret the 40 million guaranteed they gave him.

Wait, and why are the Washington Redskins unsuccessful every year again?

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 10 Predictions

WEEK 10 NFL predictions and statements:

So, here goes:

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. New York Giants (6) – I still think the AFC wins the Super Bowl, but this team may have the easiest run up to the big game, with really only Atlanta in their way. Their pass rush is still the difference, and Eli may actually be a field general and a decent leader.

2. Baltimore (3) – I still think they are better than Atlanta because of special teams and because their pass defense can be so much better.

3. Atlanta (4) – The Saints will probably make a run at them, but they are clearly a solid team with perhaps the league’s best young QB/WR combo.

4. New England (1) – Belichick will miss what ails them, and Brady won’t be in a rut for long.

5. Indianapolis (2) – This team will be fine but I doubt whether they will ever be elite this year. However, in this weird year, will that matter?

6. Pittsburgh (5) – The injuries are mounting, and while they are still very good and well coached, something is not quite right about them.

7. New Orleans (NR) – They are starting to roll, and have a week to get healthy.

8. Green Bay (NR) – See above, but mostly this is about the defense finding itself.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Buffalo (30) – They are really trying! I almost feel bad for them.

30. Dallas (NR) – That’s right Dallas, you are below Buffalo. How does that feel?

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow anyone?

32. Carolina (32) – Tony Pike anyone?

NFL 2010 week 10 picks:

Bucs -6.5 over Panthers, 24-10

-This should be a laugher, and Blount could have a huge fantasy game. However, I predict this starts a string of useful fantasy days by DeAngelo Williams. He is a free agent to be you know.

Cincinnati +7.5 over Colts, 24-31

-I’m not crazy: Indy is winning this game. However, the Bengals showed me they aren’t totally done by their effort versus Pittsburgh. Also, Indy may not be able to hold off the late surge.

Buffalo -2.5 over Lions, 17-14

-Detroit is too beat up, and Stanton might be the QB. Buffalo needs one, this is a home game (whatever that means for Buffalo anymore).

NYJ -3 over Browns, 17-10

-Another grudge match for Mangini, but I don’t see the Browns hitting a 3 game win streak versus the Pats, Saints, and Jets. That might cause the apocalypse.

Titans -1 over Miami, 34-10

-The Chad Pennington Era will be rough on many people. The Titans will roll Michael Griffin towards Brandon Marshall and take him away. Moss will draw some guys from CJ2000, and I think this will be a laugher.

Arizona -3 over Seattle, 24-20

-I officially don’t believe in Pete Carroll as a pro coach. SHOCKER.

Rams +6 over 49ers, 23-20

-Not line needed, I think the Rams win outright and continue their run toward a 500 season and possible playoff spot. The 49ers are not good, and Steven Jackson should run them over.

New England +5.5 over Pittsburgh, 30-28

-I think New England falls behind and then makes it interesting late. However, Pittsburgh is probably better right now. I will say, New England is heading up, and Pittsburgh down in the grand scheme of things. I also never want to have Belichick mad or ashamed. The Pats don’t lose back to back games.

Eagles -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-13

-Redskins dissolve into disarray, and Eagles cruise despite not truly being dominant.

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-3

Against the Spread: 4-7

Record this year:

Straight up: 60-32

Against the Spread: 43-50

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 178-100
Against the Spread: 143-136

NFL Slants for Week 9

Checking Down:

-Wow, Chad Henne, that was a lot of turnovers

-Somehow Larry Fitzgerald has almost the same stats as Anquan Boldin, despite Boldin having a much better team/QB

-The Pats got caught in a trap game versus a feisty opponent. Belichick will make them learn from this, and they will win at least 1 of the games versus Indy and Pittsburgh, maybe both

-Atlanta made a statement today, but it didn’t surprise me Tampa was feisty. Josh Freeman may be the next McNabb, but Atlanta will cruise into a top seed this year.

-Buffalo, again, nice try. But, when Chicago out games you, you know you have problems. Fitzpatrick should stay though.

-Again, the Jets get a win they don’t deserve. Theme of this week: kickers getting hurt. There should be a rule you have to carry 3 kicking specialists between punters and kickers at all times. I don’t want to see Suh kicking anymore.

-San Diego, we’ve seen this run before. However, we also know how it ends. Still, Phillip Rivers deserves an award for doing what he is doing with no Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Nanee, or Gates. They could call it the….MVP award.

-Brett Favre was impressive. And the Vikings showed heart. However, Childress still might be fired within the week, and should be. I think Leslie Frazier can do everything Childress is, and not affect the offense.

-Don’t look now, but NO is dominating again. They have a week to get healthy and refocus.

-The Giants showed why they are the dominant team in the NFC right now. If only they can keep it up…

-KC-OAK was nice, but both teams had so many mistakes and missed opportunities to prevail over the other it showed why in all likelihood they will need another year to fully mature. SD will win this division again, somehow.

-IND needs a little adjustment time, but I fully expect them to get to 10 wins and win the division.

-Green Bay had a great game, but the story of that game was that Dallas has quit, period.

Going Long:

-In some ways I applaud Jerry Jones’ idea of not firing a coach mid season, but he has to do it in this case. They have to try Jason Garrett, and see if he has the stuff or not. They also need to accept they are done at 1-7. Play Dez Bryant and Martellus Bennett and make sure they get all the experience they can. Focus on rebuilding Felix Jones’ frame to what it was. Start really coaching that secondary. Let McGee play QB (Kitna is not the future), and let Romo call plays or something productive. Put Romo on IR, play some young player in that spot. Get rid of Marion Barber. This team needs an infusion of youth and solid role players. The Cowboys need to be shaken out. This loss was so bad because at the end the team looked like it just thought it should have won but they were never even competitive. They are so past game plans and schemes. Wade has lost them, and he looks shell shocked. 0-8 Buffalo and 2-6 Detroit are worlds ahead in progress, effort, and optimism. This team does have a lot of talent. It just needs to be shaken up, with some line help on both sides, and a new approach. This season just needs to end. 

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 9 Predictions

WEEK 9 NFL predictions and statements:

At this point, we should know who teams are and what the situation is. And, I thought we did. The AFC was better than the NFC. Pittsburgh, NE, NYJ, BAL, and IND were playoffs locks, opening up only 1 other AFC spot. The NFC was hurting, with the Saints and Packers having injury and consistency issues.

Now? Not so much. The NFC won more conference matchups than the AFC last week, the Packers and Saints dominated previously dominant AFC teams, and Troy Smith led the 49ers to a victory.

Funny, we thought we had a lot figured out and then things went wrong. Despite that, I had my best prediction week to date. Nothing makes sense. Oh, and Randy Moss is a Titan.

So, here goes:

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. New England (2) – No homer pick, by record they are best team in the NFL. Tom Brady is doing more with less and might be the frontrunner for the MVP. That secondary is really growing. The schedule is lined up really well for them and they could be looking at 13-3.

2. Indianapolis (4) – That win was impressive, overcoming injuries and odds, and the team that embarrassed them a few weeks before. They have Peyton, so they will still win 11 games. NE-IND should be awesome this year.  

3. Baltimore (3) – They didn’t lose.  

4. Atlanta (4) – See above. I think they win convincingly this week, setting up a high seed in the playoffs.

5.  Pittsburgh (1) – This is still a really talented team, but I still don’t trust them. The loss of Aaron Smith really hurts, as it did last year. Also, they will really miss Troy Polamalu when he is invariably suspended for 3 seasons for speaking out against the commissioner.

6. New York Giants (7) – They have been impressive, and I would give them good odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They have pass rush, good running game, and have a QB that has won it all.

7. New York Jets (5) – They lost in a bad and I do not trust Sanchez. But, the defense is still really good.

8. Kansas City (NR) – We will see. I honestly had to rank someone, and I think they are really talented. However, they may lose their spot with a loss this week to Indy.

On the bubble: New Orleans, Tampa Bay (I know, right?)

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Cleveland (NR) – We will see Colt, we will see.

30. Buffalo (32) – Ryan Fitzpatrick is trying really hard, of course that is probably the position they will address in the offseason.

31. Denver (29) – That was terrible. And it was San Francisco too.

32. Carolina (31) – Over under on Steve Smith punching someone out soon? 2.5 games?

NFL 2010 week 9 picks:

Vikings -8 over Cardinals, 27-13

-The Vikings really needed this game, and I have no idea how the Cardinals will stop Adrian Peterson. Oh, and Derek Anderson is starting.

Chicago -2.5 over Buffalo, 24-20

-I totally agree with the pundits and specifically Bill Simmons that Chicago is a terrible team, badly put together. However, it is still better than Chicago, this is a neutral field game, and Cutler might throw for 500 yards. With like 6 sacks.

Miami +6 over Baltimore, 23-27

-I think Baltimore will win, but they haven’t had a truly dominant game yet. Miami will stay close, and cover. They can also just win outright, but the lack of their ability to run versus Baltimore might prevent that.

Saints -6.5 over Carolina, 34-10

-I know the Panthers played them close a few weeks ago, but really? Carolina is terrible, who knows who the QB will be, and don’t have their best player. The Saints got right last week, and the bye is finally in sight to shore up their injuries. They will be focused to enter the bye 6-3 and in good position. Carolina might not get in the end zone here.

Patriots -4.5 over Cleveland, 30-13

-Okay, so the case for the Browns is: they play tough, they are at home, and they have Eric Mangini (vs. Belichick). The case for the Pats: they are better at every position except RB and have better coaching. And Colt McCoy vs. Bill could be humorous.

Lions +4 over Jets, 24-23

-Upset alert! The Jets are a false team. They only beat Denver by getting bailed out by an official, and we know how bad Denver is now. In addition, the Packers exposed who they really are on offense, limited the running and cutting in Sanchez’s lanes. The Lions have some good pieces, and are still alive in that horrid division.

Falcons -8.5 over Bucs, 27-13

-Falcons clamp down on the Bucs, who are a nice story but not elite. Also, the Falcons are awesome at home.

Giants -6.5 over Seattle, 28-20

-The GMen are dangerous to take here, because Seattle is so good at home. However, then I heard Charlie Whitehurst was starting.

Colts -3 over Eagles, 24-20

-Colts haven’t lost in November in 4 years. Colts are a consistent team, and the Eagles are continually in flux. Colts can score on this defense, and the Eagles will not be able to catch up, and Vick may get leveled by Freeney/Mathis. The Colts defense may be the perfect one to line up with Vick.

Chiefs -2.5 over Raiders, 24-19

-Oakland cannot keep this up. The Chiefs haven’t lost in Oakland since 2002. And this is one matchup (one of like 3) in which I trust Matt Cassel more than the other QB. Romeo will stop Run DMC, and the Chiefs will pound it at Oakland.

Packers -8.5 over Dallas, 27-17

-Kitna may get pick sixed twice, and the Packers need this game. Dallas officially packs it in here.

BLISS

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-2

Against the Spread: 7-3

Record this year:

Straight up: 52-29

Against the Spread: 39-43

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 170-97
Against the Spread: 139-129

NFL Slants for Week 8

Checking Down:

-David Garrard is 10-10 for 126 yards and 2 TDs at half. However, please listen when I say it is a total mirage. One play was an outstanding 41 yard TD by Mercedes Lewis that Garrard cannot take much credit for. The rest were check downs and defensive lapses by Dallas. He is not the long term solution. It is like looking at Jason Campbell numbers in Washington some games: West Coast created numbers.

-The Dolphins really need to stop kicking FGs. It is killing them, and they will lose more games like they did against Pittsburgh if they cannot get more points out of their opportunities.

-Dallas looks like they have given up. I am pretty sure this is because they have given up.

-Kansas City dominated Buffalo today, but the scoreboard will not reflect it. The running game is so very good, and Cassel is settling well into a task master who can find people when he needs to.

-There’s the real Mark Sanchez! 40% completion, 1 pick, 2 other should have been picked passes.

-GB is in trouble. Their win today was nice, but this is supposed to be a high scoring team.

-Welcome home Matt Stafford. Detroit Lions, your 2011 NFC North Champions everybody!

-Patriot home reds are an awesome alternative uniform.

-SD starts the game with a safety, why am I not surprised?

-I really like the Chiefs and what they are doing. However, they need to put away teams like Buffalo if they want to make a playoff run.

-McNabb isn’t very good anymore, but it anyone surprised Rex Grossman fumbled on his first play?

-So, Oakland might be decent? I can’t believe I am saying this, but it is Oakland and Kansas City.

-Hey, a Darius Heyward-Bey sighting!

-The Raiders have racked up 92 points the last two games. Um, what.

-Green Bay showed good heart and with the win over the Vikings and the Vikings loss today, they will probably win that division. However, Detroit has 16-1 odds to win the NFC North. It isn’t crazy….

-The Jets and Sanchize were exposed. He is too inconsistent to lead them on a serious Super Bowl run as he is right now. If they hadn’t beaten New England earlier in the year, they’d be in some trouble right now.

-There are my Saints! Pittsburgh gets exposed for not being truly dominant, especially for Big Ben’s accuracy under pressure.

-With the 1^st pick in the draft, the Dallas Cowboys select…..

Going Long:

-From what I’ve seen, Troy Smith should be the 49ers QB the rest of the year. I am not thinking he is perfect, but he does give them a chance to win and possibly grow into being the future at the QB position for them. He reminds me of several positive qualities from David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck. Several times in Baltimore it was apparent he had something to offer, and he did win the Heisman. Alex Smith is always hurt and has never proven much, and we know David Carr is worth nothing. So, let him play, let’s see what happens. He is more innovative, and he did well today despite being in a different country and not having Vernon Davis to throw to.