A Wonderful and Exciting Thursday Night

This is going to be a wild Thursday night.

I am so excited. There will be high scoring, high octane athletes, and a pumped up crowd. This has some implications down the line for the playoffs, but really is just an exciting regular season game. We could have seriously out of the ordinary stats going up. Fantasy owners will be on the edge of their seats. Phoenix-Golden State is going to be awesome!

Wait, you thought I was talking about something else?

Right, Houston-Philadelphia is on tonight. Because it is on the NFL network, I forgot for a minute. Much of the same arguments apply. It will be high scoring.  Houston is terrible defending the deep pass, so this could be an aerial show.  Philly can take a hold of a playoff spot with a win tonight, and Houston knows it needs a win to even be considered for a spot, though the AFC South is more wide open than it has even been.

Oh, still thinking of something else?

Right, that Lebron guy is going somewhere tonight. Cleveland? Didn’t he used to play there? I think they may have been pissed off about it or something like that.

Okay, I’ll ditch the mocking tone. This game should be fascinating. It is fascinating in a way sporting events rarely are. The point result almost doesn’t matter. A Cleveland win would be nice for the fans, but if Lebron has a bad game and gets clearly affected by the crowd, they would so take that. The win or loss would mean little for the overall picture. This isn’t deciding any playoff spots, and the HEAT are no longer in any kind of race for 70 wins. Also, despite Miami’s struggles, it is clear which team is more talented.

I found this story really interesting this morning: http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/14387010/heat-flight-lands-safely-in-cleveland-after-reporting-trouble. I found it strangely ominous for tonight’s game. Everything is warning Lebron from returning to Cleveland tonight. It is going to be bad. Bill Simmons tweeted last night that a scandal would break out if Lebron “got hurt” in Detroit and was magically unable to play. That didn’t happen but I wouldn’t have been surprised. Lebron ducks out on his other commitments, why would this have been any different?

Dan Gilbert has garnered a lot of attention this year. He was fined for his letter and reaction to Lebron leaving Cleveland, and I supported Gilbert in his emotion. He had a right to be mad because this whiny kid wanted to go play with his friends. He has spent 300,000 dollars on investigations into collusion, and I support his right to do that too, even if Stern would never do anything about it. However, here I have interesting divergence of opinion from the general population.

I actually do not believe there was collusion. Now, I think Bosh was planning to go to Miami the whole time. He did have a conversation with Wade about it, and collusion was there between Wade-Bosh. It would have been Kobe-Gasol all over again, and would have worked well. They did reach out to Lebron, but I don’t think they thought Lebron would actually go through with it. Wade admitted that much this week. And while Wade would never admit it, I think it is possible he never wanted Lebron to come. The positives outweigh the negatives so Miami had to take Lebron. However the negatives most affect Wade. He is now in an alpha dog battle against a guy with similar skills to him. He has to fight for it to be HIS TEAM when that hasn’t been questioned since Shaq left. Lebron and Kobe are perhaps the only two players who really could have laid claim to the HEAT being their team, and that is exactly what happened. Lebron came in, and as Wade ages and declines (he is injury prone, 28, and has a lot of damage on him), it will become Lebron’s team.

If Lebron had gone to New York, Knick-HEAT games would have been epic. I think Wade is like Kobe in that he is motivated to take down the other alpha dog. The problem is, the HEAT’s competition in the East is compilation teams. The Celtics are made up of several good players, no real top 10 players. Same thing is true for the Magic. Though Howard is really good, Wade is not going to match up with him. The Bulls could be a good matchup for Wade (Rose, ownership of Chicago), but that is a matchup that really features Lebron over Deng. I think one of the most understated parts of this season is Wade’s lack of motivation and silent frustration with the transformation he “asked for” but is not really enjoying.

The other thing is, had Lebron gone to NY, we would have had a much better league. We would have three teams in the East with dominate slashing players (Lebron, Wade, Rose) and secondary power forward scorers (Amare, Bosh, Boozer). As Boston and Orlando fade, we would have 3 interesting teams, well matched, in three good cities. Any of them are good matchups for the Lakers as well. It is really too bad.

It is also funny what this has done to Lebron’s legacy. He was a top 3 player in the NBA for talent, was on pace to become a top scorer in NBA history, if not the top scorer. It was obvious when he was on the court. He radiated dominance, and all eyes focused on him. Now, #6 just looks like another player. As Bill Simmons says, “Lebron on TV isn’t a mandatory viewing anymore”. He is a top 10 player, even if his talent has not dropped. His stats have gone way down. Somehow, despite the better players around him, his looks being better, and his energy being up, his % are way down. He is no longer on pace to break all kinds of scoring records. Lebron might have mired himself in a nightmare where he isn’t going to win a title OR be the best stat guy ever.

Even when Boston declines, Chicago may rise up and be a better team because their construction is better and Rose/Boozer/Noah matchup well with Arroyo/Bosh/Joel. Even if they figure it out and win say 2 titles in four years, it will be because of Wade, not Lebron. He will be always remembered for that. Think of Kareem’s half dozen titles. He is celebrated, but those are Magic’s titles. And Lebron won’t sniff 6 rings. Same thing with Pippen and Jordan, which may be the perfect comparison.

So, back to tonight’s game. CLE has all the tools to win this game. Mo Williams is a perfect matchup for this team, and Jamison-Varejao will dominate Joel Anthony-Bosh. If you don’t see Bosh disappearing in this game, you haven’t been paying attention. I think Jamison throws up 25 on Bosh, and Varejao puts up 12 and 18. Cleveland will clearly shake Lebron. I almost don’t care if they do something really vile, and disagree with ESPN arguments that this will turn him into a victim. I am not sure anything can turn him into a victim. This will be a big test, because in the playoffs, Orlando and Boston will test the resolve of the HEAT. They will torture Lebron and Bosh will be tested in his inner strength.

So, Cleveland wins a close one, 101-97. Lebron bricks free throws near the end, and Mo Williams is huge. Cleveland erupts and Lebron is escorted all the way to a plane, running away and being shielded yet again.

In the NFL, Philly explodes, but Houston keeps pace enough to cover late, 38-31. Do remember Houston’s defense has improved 120 yards a game since the defensive coordinator has come to coordinate from the sidelines. It should help a bit, and Mario Williams is one of 6 guys who can outrush and control Mike Vick (Trent Cole, Freeney, Mathis, Peppers, Tuck). I have no confidence that Philly covers 9.5.

As for where I started? Phoenix beats Golden State, 121-115. Nash erupts with 20 assists, and Hakim puts up an awesome 25-10 on David Lee trying to defend him. Remember this is a big game for Jason Richardson too (his time with Golden State, great matchup with Monta trying to defend him, contract year push). He should hit 4 3’s minimum. When it comes to the actual value of sports matchups, this is my game of the night.

So, you might ask, which of these games I am so invested in and intrigued about am I watching? None of them. I am having Hanukkah dinner with two wonderful friends and catching up on Glee. I am a complex man. Oh, and I can catch highlights (and probably the second half of Phoenix-Golden State). I may also be watching my phone all night waiting for some report of Lebron running away crying. Feel free to send me impressions as you are watching.

Enjoy!

BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you enjoyed the full slate of games. There is a lot to process from this weekend, so here we go:

Checking Down:

-Roy Williams, what was that? GET DOWN. Can we start teaching players that once a first down is made, or an interception occurs, and you have less than 2 minutes remaining, up by any score, you GET DOWN. I don’t care about you wanting to score. 

-The Jets won a game that was in contention for way too long. This will catch up to them versus New England this week.

-The truth is, I don’t blame NE, NO, or NYJ for their slow starts/close portions of games to inferior opponents. They played on 80 hours rest, 2 of them on the road. They won their games, with the Pats and Jets pulling away at the end. Just getting through the circumstances is good enough.

-ATL pulls out another close game versus a good opponent. This team can hang with anyone because of its methodical and complete style. Home field is huge for them. Green Bay showed great strength though. Atlanta seems the most consistent NFC team, if not a dominant one.

-Buffalo won a great moral victory today, and the Steelers showed they are the better team. However, they also showed they are incredibly vulnerable. Baltimore should take them head to head and win that division.

-CLE-CAR was just a big pile of yuck. Can Jake Delhomme just be done now? Steve Smith looks ready to kill someone.

-Tennessee is done. This is a good team done in by a lack of true Quarterback. Randy Moss anyone? His 4^th team might be coming soon.

-Rusty Smith is officially the worst starting QB in the league, congratulations. When you dethrone Jake Delhomme and Derek Anderson, you’ve accomplished something.

-Poor Chris Johnson. And his owners. Like me. Randy Moss creating spacing my…..

-Houston won a game versus an already defeated foe. Do not read into it. The Texans are not going anywhere either.

-Did either team really want it in the NYG-JAX affair? Neither one is going anywhere but a first round exit at this point if they do make the playoffs.

-Don’t get too excited Viking fans: it was just the Skins. Adrian Peterson’s injury is worrisome. They should shut him down if he has any kind of real issue.

-There’s Oakland! Who smells 5-11 coming?

-Miami is much better with Chad Henne, and no one should talk about Chad Pennington, Tyler Thigpen, or anybody else again. He is at least as good as a 2003 Jake Delhomme or 2005 Jake Plummer or the like, so he can be a usable starter, given time and more help at receiver. They need a running game. And a healthy Jake Long.

-Ricky Williams is clearly the better back in Miami right now. He needs to play more, and then be resigned to a decent deal. Ronnie Brown has never been healthy, and his skill at “Wildcatting” is overrated. They need a fresh new back, not overpay an old and overrated Brown. Of course, they will.

-KC won the game it should win, mainly because Bowe and Charles were awesome. Seattle pulls its Jekyll and Hyde routine again. Next week, we get “pumped and jacked” Pete Carroll or “let’s cut half the team and see what happens” Pete Carroll?

-TB made the game versus the Ravens close, but showed why they are one year away. They need a consistent second receiver, and an edge rusher.

-Chicago is for real people. When the offense clicks like that, the team is hard to beat. Hester makes a big different, and swings emotion and excitement at Soldier Field if nothing else.

-STL showed growth in this game, both in exploding to a lead and then barely holding one. Bradford showed progression and really just needs an ace wide receiver to grow with. Denver shows a lot of fight, but is really a bad fundamental football team. We do need to see Tebow at some point soon. You know, to firmly prove he is NOT an NFL QB.

-Chris Long, you have grown up! He made two great plays to close out the game for the Rams. While I am not sure he will be Jared Allen, being another Justin Smith is not out of the question. That is not a bad thing.

-SD made a statement, winning in Indy in primetime. Indy should recover from NE/SD in enough time to win this division. They should run the division games at least. However, this is a flawed team that is going to get killed in the second round on the road at New England or Pittsburgh/Baltimore. Hell, if they get San Diego at some point they’ll get killed there.

-This loss knocks Manning off the MVP list. Vick’s so so games and general low number of starts should prevent him from winning. At this point I have Matty Ice third, Brady second, and Rivers first.

-Yes, Rivers. He is now 6-5, and 4 of the wins are his alone. And, 2 of the losses would be wins by Rivers if the Bolts had any special teams at all. He is now the MVP favorite, deal with it.

-Funny stat: Rivers could break Marino’s mark this year and win the MVP but still be second in all time passing yards for a season. Kyle Orton is slinging it with no inhabitations right now. I think Tebow plays at some point and thus Orton is slowed, but you never know. 

-I am posting this column before Monday Night’s SF-ARI game. You know why? Because I don’t care about it. It doesn’t matter. And ESPN is going to take a ratings bath on it. The teams suck. I laughed so hard when I heard the commercials with Jon Gruden promoting “Derek Anderson’s big time arm” and “Patrick Willis’s toughness”. Hey ESPN? We don’t spend our time watching a QB ground balls ten yards from their receivers no matter how hard they throw it.

Going Deep:

-The Patriots are rolling, and are showing themselves as the class of the AFC at least, if not the NFL. It is like the 2003 Patriots offense with deeper routes. Their defense is growing all the time. They need a great pass rusher, and this unit will be above average at absolute worst next year. 

This win against Detroit was impressive for one particular reason. All this season, the Patriots have come out and dominated first halves, especially versus good teams. In the second halves, the other team adjusts and comes back, normally falling short. Other teams can do this because the Pats team, especially the young secondary, is not talented or developed enough. The win against Detroit is interesting because the opposite was true. They came out lethargic, clearly out of energy on short rest after two tough games versus Indy and Pitt, traveling to Detroit on a holiday. But, they came together in the second half and asserted their talent dominance. So, that was impressive.

The true test however, is the Jets next week. The Colts may not be very good anymore, and Pittsburgh has some clear issues. The Jets seem to be their truest test and the last thing controlling New England’s destiny in the AFC playoffs and division. I think they bet the overachieving Jets, but we will see. If they do, no matter how Atlanta plays, NE will jump into the top spot in my power rankings.

-We need to get over network rules. When a channel (cough, CBS, cough) has an hour of after game shows scheduled, there is no reason to switch away from an overtime game to let us watch the analysts talk about nothing. You know what you had CBS? An overtime game versus the first quarter of Fox’s game. You know what you did with it? You threw it away by “having to switch away”. Now, if you have another TV show starting up, I would understand more. However, you did not. You had an hour of the studio talking about the early games. Show the overtime game! I changed the channel to the Bears-Eagles game and looked up the Bills overtime on the internet. Congrats CBS, you lost a chance to keep some audience when they weren’t planning to be watching CBS.

It is time we ignore these “network regulations” and show the end of games. We want to see the whole product. In an era where CBS and FOX football games are slowly getting drained by RedZone, On Demand, every game on a NFL channels, and internet sites broadcasting individual games instead of watching a channel that happens to have a game, it would make sense to change the rules a bit. I mean, it is also important to show the end of games more than the beginning of others. See, TNT and the NBA does this. Even MLB will do this (On TBS no less). But the NFL is so tied up in contracts; they have forgotten that they have to finish what they start to show. We really don’t care about the analysts. Show us the games. Hell, even the Analysts seem to be annoyed by this to be honest.

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 12 Predictions

WEEK 11 NFL predictions and statements:

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Atlanta (1) – They didn’t lose. And St. Louis is pretty good. It is a good test at home this week for them.

2. New England (2) – We’ll see if they roll over Detroit this week, but I’m a believer.  

3. Baltimore (3) – They creamed a team they should have, so we didn’t find much out.

4. New Orleans (6) – They are rolling, SHHHH!

5. Green Bay (7) – Quietly rounding into shape. Still too hurt to be a true contender, but a butt whopping is still a butt whopping, and they just laid one down on a tough opponent.

6. Philadelphia (8) – Won versus my number 5 team from last week, even if it was unconvincing.

7. New York Giants (5) – Injuries are now hitting them at the skill positions.

8. Pittsburgh (NR) – I have no faith in this team, but they did win convincingly against a team that was over .500.

Dropped Out: Indianapolis – This team is way too hurt, and Manning cannot do it all. The defense still rushes great, but without leads that advantage goes away. Brady showed how to beat them: middle draws, 1 and 3 step drops, and big tight ends punishing short. Plus, stay on the field.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Cincinnati (NR) – You know, I almost put Buffalo here, but then realized they dropped 45 on Cincy. So, welcome Bengals.

30. Detroit (30) – Without Stafford, this will get bad.

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow anyone?

32. Carolina (32) – Tony Pike anyone?

NFL 2010 week 12 picks:

Patriots -6.5 over Detroit, 30-21

-Pats may be a little tired, but I don’t see them losing to both Cleveland and Detroit in a month where they beat Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. Belichick makes sure they focus.

Saints -3.5 over Dallas, 28-17

-Saints are much better team than Dallas, and we are getting to the time of the year where each game matters so there is no let up.

Jets -10 over Cincinnati, 21-10

-Jets run over the Bengals. See logic for Saints-Dallas.

Vikings +2.5 over Redskins, 24-13

-This tells you all you need to know: New interim coach. Vikings win this one because Washington cannot stop Peterson.

Atlanta -2.5 over Green Bay, 30-27

-Atlanta wins at home, and can pound the run. Green Bay storms back to make it close, but falls short. 

Giants -7 over Jacksonville, 21-13

-Giants have huge injury issues, but win this game because they are much better. The pass rush will kill the Jags.

Houston -5 over Titans, 31-17

-Rusty Smith, and Houston can actually score.

Bears +3 over Eagles, 27-23

-The Bears expose Vick, and the defense forces mistakes. Forte has a good game finally.

Rams +5 over Broncos, 24-17

-Teaser alert, take Rams +11. We might be seeing Tebow soon.

Chargers +3 over Colts, 31-28

-The Colts are too banged up and Rivers marches toward his MVP with Jackson back. 

Cardinals over 49ers, 20-17

-SF is terrible, Cardinals are only somewhat bad. Wow, ESPN, wow.

Buffalo +11 over Steelers, 20-26
-Buffalo has another close game, but cannot finish it. Still, Steelers, this is your trap game....

Record last week:

Straight up: 10-3

Against the Spread: 9-4

Record this year:

Straight up: 77-37

Against the Spread: 58-57

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 195-105
Against the Spread: 158-143

BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 11

Checking Down:

-The Colts are just too hurt, and Peyton knows it. That is why he played for the win and not overtime. He knew he wasn’t going to get another chance

-Houston needs a secondary badly

-The Jets win again, and while I don’t believe in them still, my own logic with the Pats applies. The team that comes from behind every week is still winning

-Baltimore dominated like it should, but the defense took a long time to come around

-Buffalo unloaded a can of whop ass on Cincy. Maybe we need to see the other Palmer soon

-Dallas is decent team. We knew that, but they were apparently sleeping. Now the question is: Does Romo come back?

-Jacksonville just keeps on winning. I almost hope they make the playoffs, because that would be entertaining to watch them get blown out first round

-KC blew out Arizona, like we thought. Funny thing is, Larry Fitz continues on pace to be better than Anquan Boldin this year

-This was an assertive moment for both Pittsburgh and Green Bay to put potential challenges essentially out of their misery and assert themselves as clear upper echelon teams. It is truly impressive for Green Bay

-There’s the Oakland we all know

-Tennessee proves my point from last week that this is a QB driven league, and they have someone called “Rusty Smith” at the position. Yup

-New Orleans is rolling…..shhhhh

-TB puts SF out of its misery, but we didn’t really learn anything in that game, did we?

-ATL won convincingly, but St. Louis showed its quality again. Bradford is going to be SPECIAL

-Philly and the G-Men both showed deep flaws (PHI-red zone inefficiency, scoring without the big play, and NYG-consistency and throwing from behind). It is why the NFC champ will most likely come out of the South

Going Deep:

-The Pats again dominated the game. That they almost let up the lead again (like the BAL, PIT, and SD games) just shows a young secondary and normal garbage time effects. However, that they have “almost” let up 4 times against 4 really good teams but never did really does show something about them. Best coached team in the league, by far. They, and Brady, will matter come playoff time. Now, they just need to beat the Jets and they will have head to head tiebreakers over the Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, and Colts for top seeding. Now THAT is impressive. 

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 11 Predictions

WEEK 11 NFL predictions and statements:

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Atlanta (3) – They proved they can win close games, and this is a well built team.

2. New England (4) – I am giving them the benefit of the doubt with the Cleveland game, and I think they beat Indy this week.

3. Baltimore (2) – They slip only a little with a loss, because it was to my number 1 team.

4. Indianapolis (5) – They won, and are figuring out how to win games. I am excited for this week.

5. New York Giants (1) – To the Cowboys? Well, this could be their Cleveland-NE game.

6. New Orleans (7) – They didn’t lose.

7. Green Bay (8) – They didn’t lose either.

8. Philadelphia (NR) – I have to rank them after that EXPLOSIVE performance. They may not win anything in the playoffs, but you what? Take the over.

Dropped Out: Pittsburgh – Injuries and inconsistency

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Washington (NR) – Welcome to the basement Ethnic Slurs.

30. Detroit (NR) – Without Stafford, this will get bad.

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow anyone?

32. Carolina (32) – Tony Pike anyone?

NFL 2010 week 11 picks:

Chicago +2 over Miami, 24-13

-There is no way Miami can win set up like this. Plus, analysts might explode if Chicago is 7-3, and that would entertain me.

Baltimore -9 over Carolina, 31-3

-I think the Ravens smell weakness over in Pittsburgh and turn on their best from here on out. Carolina is terrible and this could be epically bad.

Cincinnati -5 over Buffalo, 28-17

-That was nice Buffalo, but this is one team the Bengals are actually better than.

Cowboys +7 over Lions, 27-17

-Lions have good effort, but the Cowboys are hitting right now, and they will roll over Detroit here.

Cardinals +9 over Chiefs, 20-16

-Chiefs win a grinder, and Derek Anderson makes a late mistake to seal it.

Packers -3 over Vikings, 31-21

-Packers blast Favre, and seize their division. This week might see the end of Favre and Childress, though Peterson should have a great game.

Texans +7 over Jets, 24-23

-The Jets have won several they shouldn’t have, and to a lesser degree the Texans have lost some they shouldn’t have. The Texans have to have their bounce back game, and I think this is it.

Raiders +8.5 over Steelers, 17-21

-Steelers are not great, but they are good enough to beat the Raiders.

Titans -5.5 over Washington, 27-10

-This might be more grinding than the Eagles victory, but I think it will as total.

Saints -11.5 over Seahawks, 34-7

-This could be ugly. Saints roll.

Falcons -3 over St. Louis, 24-17

-This is a better game than most think, especially the schedule makers back in August. However, the Falcons are better, and take care of business here. STL cannot stop the run and Michael Turner should have a big game.

Patriots -3 over Colts, 31-27

-These games are always close, but the Colts are too beat up and this game is in NE. I think NE gets out ahead early, and Manning makes it close late. Big games out of Reggie Wayne and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.

NYG-PHI could be many things, but it will be OVER

Chargers -10 over Broncos, 35-21

-Obviously, the over is in play here, even though it is 49. Chargers need this, and the Broncos burnt out last week.

Record last week:

Straight up: 7-2

Against the Spread: 6-3

Record this year:

Straight up: 67-34

Against the Spread: 49-53

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 185-102
Against the Spread: 149-139