2016 Week 1 Predictions & Season Predictions

2016 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots

AFC North – Bengals

AFC South – Colts

AFC West – Raiders

AFC Wild Cards – Chiefs & Texans

AFC Championship – Patriots over Bengals

NFC East – Giants

NFC North – Packers

NFC South – Panthers

NFC West – Cardinals

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks & Saints   

NFC Championship – Packers over Cardinals  

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-Luck or Newton may have better raw numbers, but Rodgers will have a ton of wins and his typically efficient season

OPY: Newton

-A ton of touchdowns are still coming for Cam with better WRs this year.

DPY: JJ Watt

-This is one of those “until further notice this will likely be the pick each year” situations.

ORY: Zeke Elliot

-Talent and opportunity.

DRY: Jalen Ramsey

-Again, based on opportunity. Was going to be Joey Bosa, but that didn’t work out well.

COY: Belichick

-If he goes 12-4, 13-3 with Brady missing and so much hubbub…

Last season my spread picks were not nearly good enough. The goal is to clean that up a bit this year.

Week 1 Predictions:

Titans +1.5 over Viks, 20-13

-Just because I love Mariota and the Vikings are in transition at quarterback.

Chiefs -7 over Chargers, 27-17

-Someday, the Chargers will fix their running defense and offensive line health.

Bears +6 over Texans, 20-21

-Bears cover. Sneakily, they had the 10^th best offense last year and Cutler was a top 2 QB under pressure. Texans have a bunch of new toys they need to figure out how to use. Watt isn't fully healthy yet. 

Raiders +1 over Saints, 37-35

-Shootout alert! Irrational Derek Carr love! 

Packers -4.5 over Jags, 34-27

-The game that made me think how much I am allowed to allocate to line guessing this year! Wow this is delicious. 4.5? Aaron Rodgers?!

Bengals -2.5 over Jets, 23-17

-Bengals are just so physical on both lines, and the Jets’ offense will stay good as long as it takes the league to figure out Fitzmagick. Yeah…I’ll stay with the Bengals.

Browns +4 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just taking the points between two bad teams, one having a veteran QB and one with a rookie one.

Ravens -3 over Bills, 20-14

-Bills had the offseason from hell. Ravens quietly got healthy from their many injuries.

Falcons -3 over Bucs, 26-20

-Still the veteran team versus the young team. Almost Bucs.

Dolphins +10.5 over Seahawks, 21-27

-That’s just too many points for the first week of the season. Just need to cover.

Giants over Cowboys PK, 27-23

-All about the Romo injury. I like the Giants offense a little this year too.

Colts -4 over Lions, 27-14

-One team gains its superstar back, one loses theirs to retirement….4 point game? Yes please.

Cards -6 over Pats, 30-23

-I really like this Cards team. Too much in Arizona without Brady.

Ethnic Slurs +3.5 over Steelers, 27-30

-You like this pick? It’s really just for the cover versus a still below average secondary.

LA Rams (!) -2.5 over 49ers, 19-16

-The 49ers are going to be really bad. Blaine Gabbert everyone! Los Angeles has football again! 

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:

Straight Up: 935-514
By Spread: 765-670

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 4: NBA Finals Preview

The 2015-2016 NBA Finals is not a rematch. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The names of the teams are the same, but overall it is really different.

Golden State has won 73 regular season games since its title win last year. The Death Lineup isn’t a novel idea or something sprung on the league from nowhere: it was a staple this year and we know the havoc it causes. Steph was a superstar last year, an MVP, and this close to a Finals MVP (I love that Iggy got it, no arguments). But Steph this year is really a different player. He is a “top 5 player of the last 20 years” kind of guy. His whirling set of ways to score is a Human Torch like ability to affect the game in drastic ways over short periods. He pairs that inhuman and almost wild ability to flummox defenders with a perfect calm on defense and running the offense strategically. As so many announcers say, his superpower is that he almost never makes bad decisions, dumb fouls, misses his switches. He's Captain America there: a superpower that is being so calm and direct in his intent and focus. Unable to make the play athletically, sure, that happens. But his focus is crazy, and I love watching that combined with his crazy explosive ability as a scorer. The offensive savant has become a basketball savant. 

Golden State also learned a lot about their limits and abilities this year. Klay is a superstar. Sorry, not sorry, I truly believe that. He has rounded out his offensive game. I’m not terrified when he backs a guy down and does a turnaround, or switches hands around the rim. His shooting was already otherworldly, and he is a top 10 shooter all time already by my book. We do not talk enough about his perimeter defense. I’d take him over Tony Allen, Chris Paul, Avery Bradley. Klay has discipline, length, intelligence, and lateral speed. Draymond also grew a lot, both in being a pure big in the rebounding stats, and a pure point forward as a facilitator. He isn’t the same player even as last year, and is still only just finding himself. Kerr and the coaching staff has changed a lot too, especially in the time he was away. The team learned more autonomy, and a few things from Luke Walton as well. And they certainly learned from Oklahoma City.

Cleveland, likewise, are not close to the same team. Last year’s team was hurt, defensive, slow, and Lebron-centric on offense. Lebron himself was tired, and they had an older head coach who made mistakes in the NBA game and was disconnected from his players. This year’s team is much better on offense and much worse on defense. Players who were playing out last year and giving tremendous defensive output in Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert are available but not being used. Iman could play in this series but probably won’t. Tristan just really shouldn’t unless it is spot minutes at center. Kyrie and Love are around, and the offense is flowing as a result. It really is Kyrie’s offense when he is on the court. Love is overpaid as a glorified spot up shooter, but it is effective because of his stretch of the floor while still having great rebounding prowess.

The offense sings with Kyrie and Love on the court now, but the defense is horrid. Specifically, the Pick and Roll defense when Kyrie and Love are the 1 and 4 or 1 and 5 is abhorrent. They are getting gashed each time, and it is a perfect storm of factors. They aren’t naturally defensively inclined, aren’t physically gifted specifically for defense, and don’t talk. If Lowry and Bismack can destroy it, what will Curry/Draymond, Curry/Iggy or Curry/Ezeli do to it?

Prediction: I like the Warriors in 5. I think 6 could make sense as well as 4. I actually think the advanced stats will say afterwards this series was a strong win for the Warriors, but because the 3s are going to fly it is likely the Cavs get a game or two. 3s by definition are a high variance stat, and a game or two will swing. A 1-1 start wouldn’t surprise me, especially as the Cavs have had so much rest. But the Cavs will take control of this series.

It will unfold mainly because the public is forgetting one thing: The Warriors can SCORE. Even more than last year’s team. If the Cavs go big to try to maximize rebounds, they will get blasted by the Death Lineup. If they go small, the Dubs will isolate the 1-4 PNR with Kyrie and Love and destroy that mismatch and it’ll be death by a thousand papercuts. The Thunder had exactly the right set of tools to stymie the Warriors: length, athleticism at each position, and communication. The Cavs just don’t have that.

Okay, so let’s talk about Lebron. He’s a top 3 player even now, has tons of experience in this spot, and is rested after going into last year’s Finals gassed. He loses in the Finals, pretty much every year. I discount the lockout Finals to some degree (sadly, the same for the Spurs win in 99, for the same reasons), and the win over San Antonio in 13, while great in some ways, still feels like San Antonio should have won. But for the most part, Lebron is still great in them. Even last year, it is a misnomer to label the defense Iggy, Barnes, and Draymond played on him as “great”. Klay played okay on him, but he will definitely be needed on Kyrie. Iggy is probably a bit slower than last year, and Lebron is about the same. Lebron will likely be great again: I just don’t think it will matter. It won't be why they lose. I do find Lebron’s lack of a jumper concerning. It really doesn’t make sense in his overall evolution as a player. However, it just isn’t the big concern here. 

For the Cavs to really have a chance, Kyrie needs to equal Curry, and Love needs to be tough enough to make Green’s fire and offensive impact negated by Love’s rebounding and reasonable defense. I think one significant element of the series, and a big difference from the OKC series, and is we see the reemergence of Draymond Green as an offensive scorer by himself. He just couldn’t do it on Ibaka with Adams behind him: on Love and Frye it’ll be cake.

I also really believe in the value of trial by fire rather than preparation by rest. The Cavs are fresher: this is very true. But the Warriors are hardened and tested. They took a monumental hook to the head by the Thunder, whirled around, and absolutely took control of the fight. They learned, they grew, they faced real adversity for the first time in a year and learned again how to excel. And worse of all for the Cavs, the Thunder gave Steph 7 games to REALLY get back to being “Steph Curry” about his layoff. He’s ready. The Cavs are done. Steph for Finals MVP this time. 

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 3

East:

1. Cavs over 2. Drakes in 6 games

-I want to find a way for the Cavs to win this. But like always, until they meet one of the power teams in the West, the Cavs will only lose to themselves. The Raptors have had a great year. Their backcourt is far and away better than the Cavs. But the frontcourt difference, especially if Jonas isn’t able to go, is tremendous. Even in the backcourt if Derozan isn’t efficient their advantage will be nullified. The Raptors do have a possibility of stopping the 3-point barrage that is coming because of their defensive abilities, but it isn’t enough. Lebron goes to yet another Finals.

West:

1.  Warriors over 3. Thunder in 5 games

-The Thunder have come a long way. I was supremely surprised at the shutdown of the Spurs, and Donovan did a much better job than anticipated. But the Warriors are just about ready to have everything click back into gear, and when fully on this team kills the Thunder. When it comes down to it, the Warriors will blitz the heck out of the Thunder’s big lineup, but unlike the Spurs, will actually be able to muster the guard advantage to do so. The Thunder will win the rebounding advantage, but that’s it. Westbrook will be goaded into going full board, and his lack of discipline and defensive focus will be exposed. Unless Draymond’s ankle is worse than they are letting on, this will be over in 5.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should remain the favorite, with only the Raptors without any real chance at the title. For the first time, I’ve been seriously considering the possibility of a Thunder-Cavs Finals. If so, I think I’d lean to the Thunder. The Warriors, remain the most logical Champion overall.

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 2

East:

3. Heat over 2. Drakes in 6 games

-The inconsistency of the Heat meets the inconsistency of the Raptors. You could tell me a lot of things will happen in this series and I’d believe you. However, the Heat are in a much healthier place and Wade versus Derozan is laughable even if Wade is a little bit too old. Lowry doesn’t seem healthy and Hassan is going to dominate Jonas athletically. Deng again has a good chance at a really effective series, and I like Goran to keep rolling as well. 

1. Cavs over 4. Hawks in 6 games

-At some point, this Cavs team is going to breakdown because of its lack of ability to switch and communicate effectively on defense. They will, in effect, defeat themselves. This will likely be against the Spurs or Dubs in the Finals, but it could happen here because of the kind of team the Hawks are. The vital components will be the wings for the Hawks, especially Bazemore. Korver will need to match JR Smith and space effectively and his age, athleticism, and inconsistency scares me. Millsap and Horford will be really effective against the Cavs’ bigs though, and an upset would not completely stun me.

West:

1.  Warriors over 5. Blazers in 5 games

-I am hesitant to even give the Blazers one win. Honestly, I’d sit Curry the series to make sure he’s healthy. Klay is impressive with his expanded chances/production. The Blazers are going to learn good lessons here but ultimately be pushed aside pretty quickly.

2. Spurs over 3. Thunder in 5 games

-Again, the one game for the Thunder is a stretch but a nod to the superior athleticism of the Thunder. Years ago, the Thunder simply outclassed the Spurs on athleticism. The Spurs have added Leonard since and the Thunder lost Harden. It is now much closer and the Spurs are a professional organization. This won’t be close, and the Durant rumors start flying.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should remain the favorite, but if Curry is slowed and San Antonio keeps rolling, they become the frontrunner. It already just a monstrously well-oiled machine right now. Cleveland gets about a 10% chance just because they are highly likely to make the Finals (unfortunately).

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 1

East:

1. Cavs over 8. Pistons in 6 games

-The Pistons are actually matched up well versus Cleveland, but Lebron is still Lebron. KCP can show how good he is defensively in this series.  

2. Raptors over 7. Pacers in 7 games

-Bad matchup for the Drakes here, but they will be okay eventually.

3. Heat over 6. Hornets in 6 games

-Too much experience for Miami.

4. Hawks over 5. Celtics in 6 games

-I really like the Celtics core, but the advantage at the two big spots is too big to ignore. Plus, Jae Crowder really doesn’t have a role in this series and that sort of wastes him.

West:

1.  Warriors over 8. Rockets in 4 games

-The Dubs are going to kill this team. Houston is a mess, especially on things like defensive switches and team communication. I mean, Josh Smith and Michael Beasley are prominently involved.  

2. Spurs over 7. Grizzlies in 4 games

-Sweep. Too many injuries for the Grizzlies. They will give good effort but ultimately this will be a crazy boring series.

3. Thunder over 6. Mavericks in 5 games

-In some ways, this is very similar to the 2-7 series. The Mavericks get a win based strictly on Carlisle, but they can’t stand up to OKC athletically.

5. Blazers over 4. Clippers in 7 games

-Just a feeling. Chris Paul has to slow down at some point, hack a Jordan is in play, and the Blazers have a crew of 3-5 games to throw at an aging Pierce/Crawford backup unit.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should be the prohibitive favorite. It’s either them, San Antonio or Cleveland. And honestly, I can’t see Cleveland winning the title. 

NFL 2015 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Week 21 Predictions: Conference Round

Panthers -5.5 over Broncos

-I have been working on comparisons for these two teams from the last few Super Bowls, and this terrifies me. I want to support the Panthers. The numbers support the Panthers. And their relative performances in the post season scream Panthers.

However, I think the best comparison game is the Super Bowl between the 07-08 Pats and Giants. Award winning, record breaking QB on the top scoring offense (Brady and Newton), underrated defenses by those relative teams with playmakers at each level (Seymour/Charles, Bruschi/Luke, Asante/Norman). The other team (Giants/Broncos) spent all year pulling wins out of their butts, have a Manning, and have a dominant pass rush/D-Line. Of course, that comparison doesn’t help me much because the Giants WON that game, and I really feel like Carolina will win this one.

Cam is simply so much better than Peyton it isn’t funny. Perhaps the better game comparison is from two years ago: Seattle/Carolina have the dominant defense with crazy athleticism and a young dynamic QB. Denver has many of the same pieces, but its defense is in the position the offense used to be. Manning remains a weak post season QB and that is unlikely to change here. I called a blowout in that Seattle game, felt great about it, and then watched it happen.

-Carolina has met each challenge this year. They would be an astounding 18-1 if they win this game. In talking to a friend this week and I summarized as thus: they don’t have a dominant characteristic (no 50+ consecutive weeks or defense not allowing 10 points per game), but their body of work is a dominant feat. They remind me a little of the 03-04 Pats actually, the team that won 20+ straight games. They found ways to win and even win big, and got contributions from many areas.

-The injuries to Jared Allen and Thomas Davis worry me a little, but the defense is still stocked with playmakers. The key to the game should be the ability for Carolina to move it through the air. Denver should take away Greg Olsen and other TEs/FBs should be occupied helping with edge pass rushers. It will be up to the WRs, especially the 3^rd and 4^th WRs, to get open and make plays. I think Cam makes the magic happen here. Peyton is also a key because the one positive thing he has done since coming back from “injury” is not throw picks. That has to end here, and probably will. I think the game turns on the Panthers getting up and Peyton making a major mistake to bury himself further.

24-13 Panthers over Broncos

Record last week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 0-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 140-89

By Spread: 120-107

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 935-513
By Spread: 765-669

NFL 2015 Week 20 Predictions: Conference Round

Week 20 Predictions: Conference Round

Pats -3.5 over Broncos

-I feel very strongly about this assertion. Not even two months ago, New England was in Denver. They played really well without Edelman and then without Gronk. Denver had its defense healthier than it is now. New England still almost won, losing in overtime with some….unbalanced calls impeding their chance at that victory. Now, Denver has an ailing Chris Harris, has leaked yards on defense in general, and has downgraded at QB since that game. Osweiler moved the ball, even when he made mistakes. Peyton failed to avoid mistakes in the first half of this year, and in the second half he has not had those but really hasn’t moved the ball. The Pats are healthier than they were in that first game, have Edelman and Gronk rolling the offense again, and overall this year were a better team. One of my fun facts for this game is Brady has 3 TDs in Denver this year. Peyton has 1. That’s my final point, Brady versus Manning. 11-5 overall. Continued peak versus dropoff. 22 playoff wins to 12. Only 8 losses to 13. I’ll stick with Bill and Brady.

Cards +3.5 over Panther, ARI SU

-I have loved Arizona all year, and am not backing off now. Carolina is probably a more physical team, and has the special athlete in the game. But Arizona has more depth, better skill position weapons, and a coach in Arians that is at least equal if not better than Rivera. I am betting Palmer was getting the rust out last week, and now that he has a playoff win he can be comfortable in his execution. Injuries to Olsen and Jared Allen don’t help Carolina’s case. This might finally be the game where Carolina’s lack of weapons finally catches up with them.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 140-87

By Spread: 120-105

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 935-511
By Spread: 765-667