NFL 2018 Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions

Bengals +2 over Ravens, 26-20

-I had this, I swear. Bengals are going to win this division, though the loss of Mixon hurts.

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers, 27-19

-I am choosing to believe in my initial read of the Falcons, and chalk their first game up to losing to the Champs at home. I don’t know the Panthers are for real: They should have blown the door off the terrible Cowboys last week.

Chargers -7.5 over Bills, 33-6

-Oh Bills. This is going to be ugly. At least it’s Josh Allen.

Vikings +3.5 over Packers, 24-20

-Just a value bet that either Rodgers doesn’t play or plays very limited. Even if he plays well, the Vikings can totally win anyways so this bet just makes too much sense.

Saints -7.5 over Browns, 34-10

-Browns fought hard for their moral victory. With a tie, they have their best record after opening week since 2004. I wish I was making that up. Saints lost badly but truly played very well on offense. Were that game 15 more minutes, the Saints would have won easily.

Chiefs +4.5 over Steelers, 30-27

-Big Ben’s health aside, something just isn’t right with the Steelers right now. The Chiefs can score, and that will be enough to at least cover.

Eagles -3 over Bucs, 26-16

-Bucs come down to Earth playing the defending champs. Fitzmagick likely oscillates back to his opposite personality and performance.

Washington -3.5 over Colts, 27-22

-I still don’t love Washington but the Colts are a below average team. If Luck ever went down, this would be really bad.

Rams -10 over Cards, 30-9

-Eliminator pick of the week. Play Rosen Cards, please.

Lions +3.5 over 49ers, 23-22

-The Lions aren’t as bad as they looked, and the 49ers are about as good as we saw last week. I’m just taking the 3.5 points because this should be close.

Broncos -4 over Raiders, 20-12

-Raiders just may be very bad. Broncos may be adequately competent. You know what would be good though? This Lindsey fellow to not out snap Royce Freeman.

Pats -1.5 over Jags, 24-17

-Honestly, with a limited or missing Fournette, this is a team the Patriots are still better than. Brady over Bortles. That’s so simple, sometimes it is the perfect thing to return to.

Giants +3.5 over Cowboys, 21-18

-I don’t think the Cowboys are good, and the Giants played reasonably well very an awesome defense last week. Their challenge is significantly less this week.

Bears -3 over Seahawks, 29-19

-The Bears should have won that game, and learned lessons about finishing and conservative game plans. The Seahawks have something like 6 starters missing for this week and generally are just in rough shape.

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 9-5

By Spread: 8-6

Record in 2017:

Straight Up: 165-95

By Spread: 133-125

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1271-689
By Spread: 1045-919

NFL 2018 Week 1 and Season Predictions

So clearly, I waited until the last minute to even write this. There will be very little proofing or resting on these picks, and my research level is a bit lower than it would be. This is the last year I am in school for a while at least, and I will be excited to embrace the NFL season a bit more extensively next year. However, due to popular demand, and the positive benefits writing each week on something other than my dissertation has on me, here we go again. Year 10 of SportsWorldBliss.

2018 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots – Bills have Josh Allen and Peterman, Dolphins have a Tannehill, and the Jets are starting the youngest rookie in league history. Thanks for the double digit wins and playoff berth before we even start the season.

AFC North – Bengals – They got better on the lines, got healthier on defense, and generally have more talent than most think. Something strikes me as weird about the Steelers too. Just a feeling.  

AFC South – Titans – I like the changes here, believe in Mariota, and think people are forgetting this team is young, good, have already been successful, is now healthy, and added several impact players.

AFC West – Chargers – Hate to bandwagon, but this one makes sense to me. Hopefully Bosa is healthy long term, but in general they are balanced and if healthy better than anyone else in this division on paper.

AFC Wild Cards – Steelers based on pure talent and Ravens based on coaching and a lack of good options elsewhere.

AFC Championship – Patriots over Titans (which is what I had last year).

NFC East – Eagles – Not loving this but the Giants are relying on an aging Eli, Washington continues to lose its best coaches and players rapidly, and the Cowboys could throw 3 guys off the street at receiver and produce about the same results.

NFC North – Packers – Aaron Rodgers is involved and is the best football player on the planet. I’ve written this for many years now, and not had to change a word.

NFC South – Saints – There is a Patriots-South vibe here (well, okay, that’s the Titans too, but this is FURTHER South and in the NFC). Established elite passer, innovative offensive play calling, sustained winning, and some young dynamic offensive players. Falcons worry me, Panthers still don’t scare me because of their offensive weapons (and left tackle situation), and Bucs well…there is a reason Dirk is the odds on favorite for first coach fired.

NFC West – Rams – Talent wise, the best team in football. If Goff can go from manager to point producer, forget it, it’s all over.

NFC Wild Cards – Vikings, who might be the second most talented team in football but have to play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, and Bears, who sneak in. Yes, I picked three teams to make the playoffs from each conference. Don’t do the math and check me on it, I don’t want to know if it’s possible. Seriously, don’t do the math, I want to live in my bubble.

NFC Championship – Packers over Rams.

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots – I keep picking Packers over Patriots, essentially the most accomplished QB of all time versus the most talented QB of all time, for years. It’ll happen at some point, you would hope. This would be like how we never got a Kobe-Lebron Finals, which is a travesty.

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-Feels like a comeback tour is happening.  

OPY: Gurley

-There is just going to be so much funneled through him.

DPY: Aaron Donald

-People don’t understand how good he is.

ORY: Darnold

-He’s starting from day 1 and plays in NY.

DRY: Bradley Chubb

-Opportunity based to make an impact on a still well thought of defense (even if it has fallen off more than people realize).

COY: Belichick

-I mean, it’s like Popovich. They should win every year. But they rarely do.

Week 1 Predictions

Let’s review last year, shall we?

Record in 2017:

Straight Up: 165-95

By Spread: 133-125

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1262-684
By Spread: 1037-913

I’ll take it, especially since that record was terrible as of about week 5. I’d like to push the percentage for picks against the spread though, too close to .500 for two seasons in a row.

Onto the Week 1 lines:

Browns +3.5 over Steelers, 14-13

-Start of my predicted weird season for the Steelers, who are traveling to Cleveland in a terrible storm without Bell and with a ton of distractions.

Vikings -6.5 over Niners, 30-23

-Jimmy G finally loses a game. Niners will be better and show progress, but Vikings are a really good and solid football team at home.

Bengals +3 over Colts, 23-20

-Oh, I’m so excited to take advantage of suppressed lines for the Bengals this year. Colts have terrible depth, questionable third choice coaching, and a QB that may or may not be able to throw over 20 yards. I’ll take AJ Green and Geno Atkins any day over that.

Ravens -7.5 over Bills, 20-6

-That tease is just screaming for someone to take. With Saints….?

Saints -9.5 over Bucs, 34-17

-Oh Bucs, that’s just a brutal draw for week 1 without Jameis and a mess on the roster right now. Good luck. Here’s your eliminator pick for the week friends.

Jags -3 over Giants, 22-16

-I almost feel bad for Eli. Almost.

Pats -6.5 over Texans, 31-17

-Pats under a TD? Always.

Titans -1.5 over Dolphins, 23-10

-Add the Titans to the Bengals for me as teams that seemingly are undervalued all over the place.

Chargers -3.5 over Chiefs, 27-23

-Ugh, I guess. Am I the last person who doesn’t trust Mahomes?

Broncos -3 over Seahawks, 20-16

-I have no idea. None. Don’t like either team. Taking the home team by default.

Panthers -3 over Cowboys, 20-10

-To be clear, I have the Cowboys being BAD this year. Like really bad.

Cards -1 over Washington Professional Football Team, 17-13

-I don’t know. I guess get a few wins correct before Bradford suffers the unfortunate next accident? I just don’t trust Washington to be able to score.

Packers -7.5 over Bears, 34-17

-I like the Bears this year. But Truthbisky on the road at Lambeau on primetime TV in an opener? Yeah, good luck.

Lions -6.5 over Jets, 24-13

-Darnold’s first start isn’t in a hornets’ next, but it is versus a competent team and professional players. Likely this is the result.

Rams -4 over Raiders, 30-13

-What is Jon Gruden doing?

NBA 17-18 Round 4: NBA Finals

Finals:

Dubs over Cavs in 5 games

-I’m only not picking a sweep because the Dubs can get so bored and so lackadaisical they will likely give up a game. But holy hell when they are on. They are +500 in the third quarter this season. Think about that, they beat each team by an average of 5 points in the third quarter alone. The Dubs are, an Iggy injury aside, essentially the best they have been over the last 3 years, the most experienced and machine like. The Cavs are the worst they have been not only since the beginning of the 4 year run, but the 07 team that had no business getting to the Finals. Not having Love might actually be better for them, but….Hill versus Curry? JR versus Klay? Good luck playing Korver too, they will go at him mercilessly again. 5 game gentleman’s sweep with the point disparity of a true sweep. Lebron will put up numbers, but this is a losing battle, and the Dubs cap off 3 in 4 years.

NBA 17-18 Round 3

No excuse, I was just lazy and didn’t write round 3 in time.

East:

4. Cavs over 2. Celtics in 6 games

-Respect is even getting me to 6 games. This was my thought before the Celts blew out the Cavs in game 1, and maybe that will be the overall result. It certainly seems in play. However, I think there is too much chance Lebron has now processed the basketball calculus from the first game and will have a few monster performances. I hope I’m wrong.

West:

2. Dubs over 1. Rockets in 5 games

-I actually don’t think this will be close. Rockets have a nice team and have had a great year. But this is still the Warriors we are talking about. They have more than enough defenders for both Paul and Harden to be reasonably limited, and that will be enough. This for me will be more about seeing how healthy Curry is, but ultimately won’t matter. Durant is going to feast here, and a 1-1 or 2-0 lead for GS in Houston may be enough right off the bat.

The path is now extremely clear: The WCF is the Finals. Dubs have like a 55% chance to win the title, the Rockets 30%, Cavs 10%, Celtic 5%. The next three years though? We are now at a point where I will be surprised if the Celtics don’t win a title in that window. What they have done without Hayward and Kyrie is amazing.

NBA 17-18 Round 2

You know what isn’t good? When Round 2 starts before Round 1 does. That doesn’t help me get predictions done for the round. Also what doesn’t help? Your final spring class ending on the same weekend as the turnover of the rounds. However, I don’t really feel bad about making predictions for series that already have results. Mainly because, most the readers of this know my thoughts already on who is going to win or not, and also, because as much as I am going to pick some teams who did win their Round 1 game (Dubs) I will be picking against others (Celts).

Round 2, let’s go.

East:

1. Raps over 4. Cavs in 5 games

-Okay, here we go. Am I going to pick against Lebron when he is playing Toronto, or when the guys guarding him are 24 and 20 years old respectively (Siakam and OG)? Yeah, I think I am. Toronto is just crazy deeper, younger, and more enthused everywhere else on the roster. Maybe Love has an advantage over Serge, but not by much and not based on that first round. DeRozan could have a big series, and this a chance for playoff-challenged Kyle Lowry to take advantage of a great matchup versus whoever is out there for Cleveland at PG.

3. Sixers over 2. Celts in 6 games

-Nice game one win, amazing they did that without Brown (+Kyrie, +Hayward, +Theis). Value of a coach is still really high, and also having versatile, young, long defenders. Tatum is getting so much golden experience. But it can’t last, the Sixers can’t be that bad again. They will take lessons from this and also will get a huge boost at home. Respect to my boy Horford, but it won’t be enough.

West:

1. Rockets over 5. Jazz in 4 games

-Respect to the Jazz and their defense. But this series will just show how badly the Thunder were overall by comparison. This won’t be close. The Jazz just can’t score with the Rockets. The Rubio loss is tough, but ultimately, I’m not sure it will really matter.

2. Dubs over 6. Pelicans in 5 games

-Maybe one home win for New Orleans, on a big AD game, but they just don’t have enough even without Curry. Golden State should actually control its Curry usage and just warm him up for the Western Finals. That’s going to be a great show.

NBA 17-18 Round 1

Sanity dangling on a string, almost 2/3s of the way through my doc program, I almost just didn’t do this column. But, one of my bucket list goals is to have a perfect prediction post season, so it makes sense to take the swing at this again. It has been an awesome NBA season (albeit about 10 games too long). I can’t wait for the Dubs to be healthy: I wish the Celtics would be healthy at all. But we are still going to get a great set of series, and the many stories will be fun to follow.

Okay, here we go for round 1!

East:

1. Raps over 8. Wiz in 5 games

-Gentleman’s sweep. Wiz need to keep it together, but their “best” player is fighting implications from his own team, may not be fully healthy, and the Wiz’s depth is concerning. Lowry, this is going to be the easiest warmup you can get on the quest to shake your post season reputation.

2. Celts over 7. Bucks in 6 games

-Giannis is the best player in the series (2^nd best player in the East, really). However, their depth is terrible, they don’t have enough shooting, their coach is temporary, and the Celtics have the wings of death and a far better coach. Nice draw for the Celts, though it will only get them to the second round.

3. Sixers over 6. Heat in 6 games

-This is going to go longer than people think. Spo is scheming right now around Ben’s lack of range and Embiid’s absence. However, what actually makes me feel great about the Sixers here and beyond is the people they have added. Ersan, Redick, Belinelli have added enough spacing and experience to this core. If Fultz can influence 2 games a series as an above average, athletic, backup point guard that would awesome.

4. Cavs over 5. Pacers in 5 games

-The Pacers have been a great story, but it’s still Lebron, the cyborg terminator who is not human. It’ll be fun to see how the Cav’s newcomers experience the playoffs for the first time though.

West:

1. Rockets over 8. Timberpups in 5 games

-I feel bad for the Wolves here, this is a tough draw. Towns gets them one win, but this is a series for the Rockets to cruise through. Harden, you won this MVP, but you need to prove it in the post season or the noise will be deafening this summer.

2. Dubs over 7. Spurs in 5 games

-Dubs are hurting, but I wouldn’t put much thought into their .500 record the last 20 games. They will be fine. The Spurs have been a great story, much respect to Pop for an amazing job, but the talent gap is extreme here.

3. Blazers over 6. Pelicans in 5 games

-Blazers drop one just because they are so jump shot reliant, but assuming Nurkic has his competition switch turned on, the Pelicans just don’t have enough. Lillard deserves MVP mention for this year, and this is a good draw for the Blazers.

5. Jazz over 4. Thunder in 6 games

-The Jazz have the best defensive player in the series, and roster of lesser talented but clearly defined role players. If Melo shows up and Russ is efficient, they can totally win this series. But somehow that seems unlikely, and Paul George had been oddly quiet for over a month now. It comes down to Donovan Mitchell, and if he plays like a rookie in the playoffs or like it doesn’t matter. I’m betting on the young man, and on an organized, cohesive team.

2017 NFL Week 21 Prediction: Super Bowl Sunday

Hello friends,

I’m not going to lie; it was nice to have a week off. This is a good writing outlet for me, but the time has come to wrap the NFL season and focus on basketball (and, you know, my doctoral work). However, one more contest remains, one with less hype than I am used to. Maybe it is the Patriots fatigue. Personally, I never understood that. I would watch Golden State-Cleveland forever. It is more impressive to me to maintain than to see something new. Newsflash, every team is new, every year. There are only 14 players on the Pats from their SB win over Seattle three years ago. 14, with only 5 starters! There is 1 from the Pats-Eagles last decade (and only 1 other player active in the league from that game). The contest to me is more about evoking a kind of feeling.

So let’s talk about feelings. Strange, I know. I like numbers, patterns, data, and definitive answers. I love the NFL and watch as much as humanly possible. I pour over the numbers, follow the sassy twitter accounts, and listen to the podcasts. I didn’t even flick the channel over to the Pro Bowl this weekend. That isn’t Football to me. It’s football, but not Football. No motivation, no assumption everyone is going to give full effort, no complicated system everyone involved is working within. The Pro Bowl is useless because I love knowing the kind of patterns I’ll see in a Seattle-New Orleans game for instance.

The Pats are feelings. Sitting there with some friends watching the Jags game last week I was stunned at how much I fully thought a comeback was coming. Brady is something like we will never see again. Aaron Rodgers is a Jedi Master. He is the best QB I think we will ever see. Look at the efficiency numbers. He has won a Super Bowl. He’s more super powerful than anyone. But man is Brady the person you don’t want to war against. Aaron is the Achilles like hero: Brady is Obi-Wan, Odysseus, or Steve Rogers. Good luck holding him from coming back or winning when it matters most: He can do this all day.

I have no idea how you bet against Brady. Spoiler alert: I’m laying 4.5 for the Pats. You are seriously going to stare at Nick Foles and take him? The Eagles can win, absolutely. But I’d never bet for it. I like my money. If Brady is up in the fourth quarter I feel like they are going to win. If Brady is down in the fourth quarter, I’m waiting for the comeback win. Who else creates that feeling? I don’t even care anymore about the potential loss. Every time Lebron loses I watch the weight of such a skewed Finals record seep in. Brady wins and he’s 6-2. He loses he’s 5-3. I mean, Magic Johnson was 5-4 in Finals, Bird was 3-2. Getting to that many is the ridiculous achievement, as is the feeling that it is always in reach. They could lose this game and I wouldn’t lose the primary feeling this gives me: Awe.

We aren’t going to see this again. It’s the greatest run ever. Jordan’s 6-6 is like Montana’s 4-4 to me. Dominant. Hard to ever “beat”. But to get there twice as much as Montana, to have a run twice the length of Jordan’s being in the final four at least in the sport…it simply won’t happen. Casual fans want to see their team have a turn, and new teams at least to watch in the finals of their sport. That’s why they hate the Pats. The league hates the Pats because they aren’t supposed to be able to do this. There is supposed to be a year like the Broncos had, or the Packers had three years ago. An injury occurs, or there is some bad play for a time, or something changes in the team and even the best can falter. The Pats have those issues…and it doesn’t matter. I’m in awe they are consistently here.

The Eagles are actually likely the better team. Non-Brady and Foles related things get me there. The Eagles youth and depth is impressive. Their free agency adds have been shrewd and worked out well. Their injuries don’t seem to have affected them that much, and the Hightower one killed us. I still feel the Edelman one on occasion. I’m a little nervous Gronk isn’t a full go. I’d love for him to be, but it would be a good statement for the league’s stance on player safety if he truly isn’t ready and they hold him out. This Eagles team is physical and motivated and unified. I respect them a lot.

But in the end, I trust Bill and Tom to figure it out. Pederson is a fine coach, but this is something different. The Pats have played 7 straight close Super Bowls: I am actually kind of wondering if this is the first one that won’t be.

Pats -4.5 over Eagles, 28-17

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-0

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 165-94

By Spread: 133-124

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1262-683
By Spread: 1037-912

The Stats:

Pats are wearing white. White jersey teams are 33-18 in the Super Bowl, 12-1 since 2004, and Pats are 3-0 in white. You know what this means: absolutely nothing.

The last Pats-Eagles SB’s definitive score was Mike Vrabel, a linebacker, catching 1 of his 10 career touchdowns from Brady. Mike Vrabel this week was named head coach of the Titans. I keep thinking I’m going to wake up finding out Brady retired in 2012 like a normal human and it’s all been a dream.

Brady has 7 SB starts. The Eagles have 7 as a team. Several come from former Patriots.

The Pats would tie the Steelers for most Super Bowls ever with 6, one of the few records I want for this team, rather than just appreciate seeing as they happen.

Belichick has been to 11 Super Bowls in some form. That’s more than 1 out of every 5. He’s been to more than 1 of every 3 since he starting coaching in 1986 with the Giants. Essentially he’s been in a third of Super Bowls in my lifetime.

The Pats have never scored in the first quarter. Odd. I’d bet that changes. Some of that is just the nerves. Their 7 opponents haven’t exactly lit it up: They’ve combined for 15 points total, about 2 a piece. The game is slower, more deliberate, and with two weeks off between to create rust.

I love the Pats are near the top in scoring defense but near the bottom in yardage. Bend don’t break, luck, red zone specialties, I have no idea. But I’d bet on it continuing.

Prediction, Janet Jackson makes an appearance in the Super Bowl halftime show.

Passers who lead the league in passing have never won the Super Bowl. Odd.

The Props:

Pats have won and lost SBs by 3 and 4 points mostly, with last year’s 6 being the largest difference. There are good 22 to 1 and 20 to 1 odds on the difference in the game being precisely 6 and 4 points respectively….

“Will Pats have a rushing TD” is -160. I love this bet.

Tease gets the Pats to +2 and over 41.5 is nice and clean.

Brady -.5 TDs over Foles is easy money. So is over on Brady yards at 289.5.

James White over 24.5 yards receiving...it’s a playoff game. This is happening.

Ertz over 57.5 yards is a good bet: Foles is going to default to him a lot.

I am waiting on Brandin Cooks to just absolutely explode. It hasn’t happened yet, and maybe it won’t. But a 5 catch 160 yards 2 TD game is coming. It’d be nice to happen now though. 67.5 yards feels easy.

Amendola in big games: 5 for 81 versus BAL a few years ago, 5 for 48 and 1 TD versus Seattle, 8 for 78 and 1 TD versus Atlanta, 11 for 112 versus Titans, 7 for 84 yards and 2 TDs versus Jax. Break in case of emergency, and with Edelman out and Gronk of questionable status in the Super Bowl, it’s time to crack the pane. The props are 47.5 yards and 4.5 catches. OVER.

As always, if you truly want to bet the Pats, it is probably better for you to just bet Brady’s MVP odds. It’s -110, while Pats -4.5 is -115….and you have to lay the -4.5. With the way the Pats are constituted, it is almost certainly Brady who would win it.