NFL Slants for Week 6

Sorry they are a bit late, busy week.

Checking Down:

-The Lions will be much better when they get Stafford back. They have mastered the “throw it to Calvin” offense though. No reads or anything

-The Pats have to be in the top 5 discussion right? I feel like I am blinded by being a tremendous homer, but I think Pittsburgh is the best team, and Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, and NE beat Baltimore…

-My concern is this: I see like a scenario where Pitt/Bal/Indy/NYJ/NE all make the playoffs. This is like 90% likely at this point. That would only leave the AFC west champion (more appropriately named the AFC survivors) as the sixth playoff team from the AFC. Sorry Houston, screwed again.

-In the NFC, I’ll take the Saints and Eagles to get in….and that’s it. No idea on the rest.

-By the way, the odds for the Super Bowl are AFC -3.5 over the NFC, no matter the teams. I gave you the AFC teams two posts above. You buying any team in the NFC except maybe the Saints can beat any of those five more than twice out of ten times. Those are good odds to take friends.

-Houston, that defense was terrible. I love the heart you showed to come back (and nail my prediction from last week of Chiefs+4.5 but winning the game), but without DeMeco Ryans, they have no chance to stop anyone.

-Chicago….I don’t even know what to say. The defense is playing okay, the special teams is great, Cutler wasn’t very accurate but he was effective. Forte had only 8 touches in the run game, that number has to jump. I just don’t know what to make of this team. I think Cutler will get beat up/the pass game won’t be as effective in the December games. However, they can win this division.

-Green Bay is in trouble. Write it down now, Vikings win the division (and lose in the first round).

-Giants win a game they should, and the Osi-Tuck combination proves it can win games by itself.

-Your second leading rusher in the NFL behind Arian Foster? Ahmad Bradshaw. Who had that in the preseason, Arian Foster and Ahmad Bradshaw? Put your hand down!

-So, Philly is good now? At this point 9-7 might get you a bye in the NFC so who the hell knows. Of course, they have a great win but lose their best playmaker and now have a QB controversy again.

-Pittsburgh looks scary. Harrison should be fined and suspended for his hits though. I just cannot root for Big Ben, he just doesn’t deserve it.

-STL! I have so much pride for calling Bradford’s emergence a month ago. He has been awesome, best rookie QB in a long time. STL being 3-3 is awesome, and they can seriously win that division. At 7-9. And perhaps get a bye.

-New Orleans finally laid a butt kicking on a team, and we think Tampa is pretty good too. The game clearly showed the Bucs need a young stud RB. The Saints got the downfield mojo back. They have the potential to emerge as the class of a weak NFC with the return of Pierre, Bush, and Sharper. Atlanta doesn’t seem to want that title.

-Denver showed good heart. The Jets should have lost that game. Pass Interference should be 15 yards in all cases. That is significantly fairer than what happened to Denver on that play.

-SF beat a bad team, but at least it was something. They are still alive, and Alex Smith just needs a Singletary pep talk every game to get going. At least Mike is doing something on the sidelines now.

-Indy still doesn’t look dominant, but I give credit to McNabb for developing an offense with no true stars and no star back. Perhaps we have somehow underrated him. Hall of Famer though, right?

Going Deep:

-So, MNF was terrible. Titans at Jacksonville is not your marquee matchup to begin with. But Chris Johnson, Mojo, and Vince Young are somewhat exciting. However, the game’s pace was slow. We lost Garrard and Young to injuries. While neither is Manning like in putting up huge numbers, offenses normally look better with starters running them. So, the teams look horrible. We have 55 year old Kerry Collins and Trent “wait, I’m not in Buffalo anymore?” Edwards flinging it around. Furthermore, the two elite backs were bottled up.

Bill Simmons tweeted something along the lines of there being a handshake deal between Bud Selig and the NFL, “Oh, MLB playoffs are on? We’ll give you TEN-JAC that night”. It certainly seems like that could be true. That was among the worst NFL games I have ever seen, and I have seen many. I was flicking over to Pawn Stars on the History channel instead of watching. I will say that having Chris Johnson get a carry on 4^th and 5 while up 20 with a minute left and ripping off a 35 yards touchdown was stupid, inconsiderate, showy, unnecessary, and also won me a fantasy matchup this week and almost a second. So, it was totally allowable.

-SD’s collapse is so hard to peg. Here they are still the best ranked team in the league. http://www.realgmfootball.com/src_wiretap_archives/18907/20101019/nfl_power_rankings_after_week_6/

They create yardage, stop people, and score a ton of points. They control the line, and have good talent. However, they are 2-4. They can easily come out of this and end up 10-6 or 11-5. They have done it 4 straight years. The division is not very good, and the Raiders might actually just say “you know what? We aren’t even going to play. Just take the W, we’ll all go home healthy”. (Somewhere Al Davis is saying, “Wait, we are playing football now?”)

I don’t buy those who say the lack of Vincent Jackson, LT, and Merriman is the problem here. VJax really only broke out last year. They managed their success with 35 year old Keenan McCardell and Chris Chambers at WR for years. LT hasn’t been LT for years in San Diego: that isn’t the problem. Merriman has barely played the last two years. Thus, how could they really have been missing these guys that badly? I think they do pull out of this, they are too talented and the division too ripe. However, it is still troubling. I will also say had Marty Schottenheimer stayed as head coach, or they had gotten someone better than Norv to replace him, they probably would have won a title or two the last few years. Not that Norv is terrible, he is not. He is just not elite.

Rankings and prediction columns coming up soon.

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 6 Predictions

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Baltimore (2) – I still don’t see them as an elite talent. However, they are winning their games, don’t have a true weakness, and are getting the best safety in the world back next week. Of course, I also think they’ll lose to NE this week, but that is another story.

2. Atlanta (5) – They are winning their games, have the pieces for a great run, and look like they will be a team with a bye week in the playoffs. The pass defense needs work, and the Saints won’t go away though.

3. Indianapolis (6) – The Colts got it done, and KC is a good team. They still have the pieces, and until they are really put down I will maintain faith in them.

4. Chicago (NR) – 4-1 and the last win without Cutler and DESPITE Todd Collins puts them squarely in the top 5. I don’t see how I can omit them. The defense is really solid, and their effort and special teams are great too. If Cutler can be consistently good, this team can win this division with the injuries to GB and dysfunction of the Vikings.

5. Pittsburgh (8) – They get Big Ben back, but I am not sure that is really going to be so great right away. However, they didn’t lose this week, and so many other top teams did.

6. New York Jets (NR) – I still don’t like the long term composition of this team (No true stars on defense other than a hurt Revis, weakness in the middle with no Kris Jenkins, QB who could melt down, LT eventually showing age). However, they are winning, and beat NE, so I have to rank them here.

6. New England (NR) – Well, the bye week wasn’t boring. And they didn’t lose this week either. They are 3-1, and the only loss to the team above them. However, the demolishing of Miami and Cincy is no longer looking so good because those teams probably aren’t that good.

7. New Orleans (3) – Uh oh. This team can pull it together, and the returns of PT, Reggie, and Sharper over the next few weeks will do wonders for them. They need to survive the time in between though.

8. Kansas City (NR) – That’s right, they lost, and they rose on my list. However, they played hard and did great in a loss to the Colts, who could not score for the life of them. KC showed me something. A little QB play would vault this team very high.

Fallen out:

-Green Bay (1) – #1 falls off the list. The running game is a big problem, and the injuries have killed them. Aaron Rodgers seems to be okay, but Barnett kills them from a leadership perspective. Finley was something special they had that separated them from other teams, and now they’ve lost that. I don’t know if this team can hold itself up for long.

-Houston (4) – Play in the back 7 is killing them.

-San Diego (7) – I believe in them, and I know they do this 2-3 dance every year. So talented, and I think they’ll be on my top 8 in the end.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Seattle (28) – Just despicable. The team isn’t horrible: I honestly think most of the problem is that the coach turns over 5 new players a week. I know it is a new thing for him and in college he couldn’t trade, cut players, etc. However, this team has zero continuity. Play it out with what you have, and let Whitehurst play at some point.

30. San Francisco (29) – I don’t think they are this bad, but 0-5 has to count for something.

31. Carolina (30) – Wow Jimmy Clausen, really?

32. Buffalo (32) – Ouch. Their best move was ditching their best back.

NFL 2010 week 6 picks:

Steelers (-13.5) over Browns, 28-10

-Because it is Colt McCoy. Enough said?

Saints -4.5 over Bucs, 26-20

-It may not be pretty, but the Saints are truly the better team.

Chargers -8.5 over Rams, 31-17

-Chargers turn it on about now, and still look like a top 5 team in the league despite being 2-3. The Rams are a nice story, but they don’t have enough.

Packers -3 over Dolphins, 27-21

-I am not sure the Dolphins have enough ammo, even with Green Bay a little hurt. Needless to say, if the Packers don’t have Rodgers, forget this.

Falcons +3 over Eagles, 27-16

-Dear Falcons: you won last week like I thought you would. I now will have belief in you. I also believe the Eagles won’t be able to stop Turner. Until next week, MIKE

Patriots -3 over Ravens, 34-20

-Because Bill never loses twice in a year span to any team. Because Flacco  has not really shown development and Bill will pick him apart. Oh, and the Patriots haven’t lost after a bye for 7 years (look it up).

Chiefs +4.5 over Texans, 24-27

-Texans win but Chiefs cover. I love everything about the Chiefs in this one except their QB in tight situations. So, I thought the Chiefs outplay them, but Schaub is the difference in the game.

Giants -10 over Lions, 24-13

-Good defense by the Giants and no Calvin Johnson.

Bears -6.5 over Seahawks, 27-20

-Cutler just makes them much better than “get 5 new players a week” Seattle.

49ers -7 over Raiders, 21-13

-Because they have to get a win at some point, and Oakland is playing too well for their low standards.

Broncos +3 over Jets, 24-10

-If Revis doesn’t play, this could be an aerial display by the Broncos. Either way, I see a close game and a West Coast letdown by the Jets.

Vikings PK over Cowboys, 31-29

-Someone has to win. The things is, the Cowboys are firing on most cylinders, their best players playing pretty well. The Vikings are not. So, if the Vikings get up for this and have everybody go off (Favre complete game, Jared Allen gets a few sacks, etc), they should win. And then Wade Phillips gets fired.

Colts -3 over Redskins, 34-17

-Redskins are exposed, Colts don’t lose in primetime, and the line is 3? Eliminator pick….

Titans -3 over Jags, 27-13

-Chris Johnson has a HUGE game. The Jags aren’t this good, and the Titans are tough in divisional games.

Record last week:

Straight up: 5-7

Against the Spread: 5-7

Record this year:

Straight up: 30-15

Against the Spread: 19-28

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 148-83
Against the Spread: 120-113


 BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 5

Checking Down:

-The Colts clearly don’t trust Donald Brown. Addai is out of the game, and Brown isn’t in. He can’t pass block, ergo, he can’t play.

-The CAR-CHI game was pitiful. Chicago needs a better backup. However, what this really shows is that the Panthers are truly terrible. Collins: 5-13, 26 yards, 4 INT. Ouch.

-There’s Ray Rice!

-I feel bad for Buffalo. They played hard, and probably knew that they had their chance to avoid 0-16. However, Fred Jackson and Spiller should develop into a great combo in the backfield. They need run defense and some better offensive lineman.

-Amazing. Denver looks totally overmatched, the Ravens do a good job of making their one dimensional offense look silly….and Orton has 314 yards passing.

-Brandon Jackson only had 40 yards on 9 carries if you take out the 71 yard run, which he didn’t score on. Don’t jump all over him because of his cracking a 100 yards. He didn’t have that good of a game, and you probably have much better options going forward.

-Greg Jennings is an elite receiver….right? He has 80 catches for 1200 yards with 7 TDs in his last 20 games. I mean, it is good, but not great. And, he really isn’t a burner, or big, or a great leaper. And his hands are not great. I still like him, but I am not sure elite is the proper term for him anymore.

-Clearly Carson Palmer has not completely lost it, but he throws some terrible balls and balls that just take terrible bounces. Owens is putting up numbers, but is distracting and drawing too many passes?

-Josh Freeman is a real, grown up QB. He’s not elite, but he is serviceable. I see a little of a younger McNabb in him. Maybe the Bucs knew what he was doing when they drafted him after all.

-The Raiders are really trying. They need more discipline, and tougher play from the front 7 to be serious though. Oh, and a franchise passer.

-Roddy White (5 rec, 101 yards, 1 TD) is quickly turning into the most consistent of the NFL’s elite WRs, an NFC version of Reggie Wayne. He is an awesome blocker on runs and is one of the best at stripping INTs and potential INTs away from DBs.

-Vince Young’s numbers may look acceptable, but they are seriously skewed. He will screw up again, and soon.

-Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie made a great play at the end of regulation to intercept Drew Brees. But, for the love of all things football, get down! The game is over if you take a knee my friend.

-There are some absurd passing totals today, mostly in losses. However, Brees, Rodgers, and Manning are not among the big totals.

-Kevin Kolb may not be stylish, but he is accurate. I don’t see any reason why he cannot develop into a Drew Brees type of quarterback. Also, Vick is almost 30, and will not be the long term option there. Ironically, he has probably priced himself out of Philly for next year, and Andy Reid will want a real QB who can run the west coast offense for the long term.

Going long:

-SF is NOT the worst team in the league. I really just want to make a decent offensive coordinator work with this group for a few years and not allow him to be fired no matter the result the first year. Also, Gore, Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and the offensive line are all solid and getting better. Alex Smith either needs to do it or not. This team will be set up to WIN NOW next year player wise except for the QB. They also need to settle the coaching situation. Given this division, they can become competitive quickly. However, this year seems to be over for them.

-I love two announcers above all others: Jim Nantz and Al Michaels (sorry Gus Johnson, you are entertaining, but sometimes enough is enough). Nantz proves his worth by actually criticizing the officials when they screw up. He makes a great point: why can’t an official just be watching the game like the rest of us, on a large screen. Then, he can say “no, it is this way, reverse that call” rather than take 4 minutes. I am all for getting the call right: but we can do it faster than this in 75% of situations. 

Al Michaels will actually reference the fact that betting takes place in America (by the way, they can’t reference spreads, but they can show Go-Daddy, beer, and sexual health commercials during games? Really?). He clearly knows the spread and the point total every game, and somehow alludes to it. He knows it is why many people are watching, and thus gives that population some shout out. I am stunned we for some reason as a society cannot even reference it is happening.

Both of these points reflect that the NFL seems to think that their sport is “perfect” and morally untouchable. Their officially must be given the power of an omniscient being, to be feared and never challenged. And far be it to think that some of the popularity of the game comes from the fact that humans have found a way to make themselves a competitive part of it by gambling. They take themselves too seriously. It is a game. We like to have our fun with it. Officials will sometimes make mistakes. NFL, lighten up a little.

BLISS

And the 1st Quarter MVP of the Season is...Philip Rivers?

The season is a quarter done, so I feel the need to anoint an MVP. For me, this MVP is clear, even if I don't like it. He makes his team better, and propels them forward. He hates losing, and if not for him, I don’t know if his team would have a win. He has risen above injuries and suspensions, the loss of his leading WR and LT, and still has put up some of the top numbers in the game. He plays under a blackout at home, and is hated on the road. Despite that, he excels. For me, the argument is clear: Philip Rivers is the MVP.

I was looking for a nickname for Rivers earlier today. We have one for several other players (Peyton Manning: The Sherriff, Tom Brady: The Surgeon, Aaron Rodgers: Ace, Eli Manning: Easy, Matt Schaub: The Scrapper, Matt Ryan: Matty Ice, Drew Brees: The Machine, Mark Sanchez: The Sanchize, Brett Favre: The Gunslinger, Ben Roeslithberger: Big Ben), but I feel like we are missing nicknames for Rivers and Cutler. Both are strong personalities and many other cities hate them. Heck, some of their own fans hate them. I felt cheated when Cutler was traded from Denver: I felt had they stayed in the same division, we could have seen the QBs going at it at midfield during a timeout or something.

I have heard Cut for Cutler, and Raging for Rivers, but those are not good nicknames. So, I came up with nicknames for them both together, as is appropriate. Cutler is The Punk while Philip Rivers is The Brat. Cutler is overly self confident. He may be good, but I am not sure he will end up with a ton of production over the long term. He is too self consumed. Rivers is significantly talented, but has an over inflated sense of self and what he deserves. He reacts against anyone who thinks they are better than him. He is also overly willing to take it on himself. But, you know what? The Brat is succeeding.

The last two years, Rivers has played well enough that the average fan would acknowledge him as a top 10 QB, and let you argue for him to be a top 5. However, most people would not buy him being a top 3 QB or better. Now, I love statistics. Today’s date of 10-10-10 makes me extraordinarily happy. So, I am going to look at what Rivers has accomplished statistically. He had 4000 yards and 34 TDs in 2008, and 4200 yards with 28 TDs in 2009. Both are good numbers for fantasy and real life. However, those are not the numbers that got me to take notice.

The first big stat that pops out to me is his attempts. In 2009, he had 486 pass attempts. He had 8 fewer the year before that. That may sound like a lot. However, Matt Schaub had 583, almost a hundred more. Those 6 attempts per game add up. Rivers’ 486 attempts last year ranked 18^th in the league, behind such luminaries as Jason Campbell, Matt Cassel (who missed a game and still had more), and Matt Hasselbeck (who missed TWO games and still had more). That is almost a crime. It also begs the question, how can you throw for so many yards and TDs if you aren’t getting the attempts? That question led me to the second statistic that made me christen Rivers my first quarter MVP: YPA.

Rivers had so many yards with so few attempts because of his absurd Yards per Attempt. He led the league in YPA with 8.8 last year, and had 8.4 in 2008. Arguably, Rivers gets more out of every pass than any other player. He gets the ball down the field, and creates big plays.

So, if he has been doing this for years, why am I so hyped about him now? Well, that is because despite the loss of his best WR and Left Tackle, he is playing EVEN better. His YPA has jumped again, to 9.4 yards per attempt. He is lapping the field by more than half a yard over the next best QB in that QB this year. He has taken the Chargers on his shoulders this year. He has also responded to tough situations in a more mature way than he has before. He freaked out in the first game, but has since settled in and done what he needed to do.

BLISS

After note: I finished the majority of this column a day ago, but while I was posting it, the Chargers went down 12-0 early to the Raiders. Rivers was 1-4 for -4 yards. I watched closely to see what would happen. He finished that half 17 of 24 for 290 yards and 1 TD. The team went from being down 12-0 to winning at halftime, 17-15. That is a 16 for 20 for 294 yards run when the Raiders KNEW he had to pass to bring them back in the game. Tell me this guy isn’t the most important to his team so far this year?

NFL 2010 Week 5 Rankings and Predictions

Parity, parity, parity. I am hitting 750 in pure wins, but 333 against the spread. I noticed the parity also when putting together my top and bottom 8. Let’s see how this week goes.

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Green Bay (5) – They won, and that is what counts. Eventually, they will find somewhat of a running game, and then they will be nearly unstoppable. Charles Woodson is a hall of fame talent.

2. Baltimore (NR) – All they needed to show was that the QB could step up. Point proved. Also, Ray Rice isn’t nearly 100%. They’ll get better once he is.

3. New Orleans (4) – Like GB, they won. Also, they WILL get a firm running game back. I know Ivory and Betts ran okay, but Pierre pass blocks, run blocks, and catches so well, his loss hurts them. Brees will find his rhythm soon.

4. Houston (7) – They run it so well, their pass game will be awesome once Andre is back at 100%. I also have the return of Brian Cushing on defense as key to raising their bottom ranking on that side of the ball. He covers the TEs, pass rushes, and limits backs catching passes from the backfield. With Ryans, Cushing, and Diles, they have an awesome LB core now intact.

5. Atlanta (8) – Playing well, I am waiting for them to really explode putting it all together. This week should be a trouncing of the Browns. We’ll see.

6. Indianapolis (1) – They never could stop the run, but it is the injuries that worry me. The WRs and secondary are getting bashed, and those positions always covered for line and LB deficiencies. I am sure they will bang out 10 wins. However, it could be only enough to get ousted in the first round.

7. San Diego (NR) – A good team, so talented and vibrant. Rivers makes this team succeed. If they could get something for Jackson (Mankins from NE?), and shore up the pass rush, they can excel.

8. Pittsburgh (2) – A good team, but I just don’t know. The defense cannot win by itself, and although Ben helps them, the O-Line and WRs aren’t that great. I see a 10-6 season, but the Ravens are the better team just in their own division.

Honorable Mention: Kansas City (6) – they are a nice young team, but I think Indy handles them this week. A win over the Colts would force me to put them in the top 6.

Fell out: Chicago (3) – Cutler means too much to them, and even that should be an indication of their status.

My bottom 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

25. Jacksonville (31) – Just not impressed, no faith in the pass rush or QB. They did let a receiver run up 196 yards on them.

26. Arizona (NR) – They were 2-1, but they got 7 points versus SD and needed about 3 times that many. They are who we thought they were. Good luck Max.

27. Cleveland (29) – They did win versus Cincy, but they is not quite the feat we thought, and they let up 222 yards to 45 year old Terrell Owens.

28. Seattle (NR) – Yeah, the Rams are an okay team, but seriously?

29. San Francisco (NR) – The team is not this bad, but they just don’t play together well. See, you need a coach who is either a great team chemistry creator or a great X and O’s guy. They have neither.

30. Carolina (32) – A for effort, but this team is just not good. Explosion out of both their backs still got them a loss. Without Smith, this is even worse.

31. Oakland (30) –Run DMC now hurt, this could get ugly. Cable survives until week 10? I’ll take the under.

32. Buffalo (28) – This might be the only week to avoid 0-16.

And now, the picks.

NFL 2010 week 5 picks:

Bucs +6.5 over Bengals, 17-20

-The Bengals really need this game. However, that probably means 3 point win. Owens also used up all of his energy last week.

Falcons -3 over Browns, 33-13

-Dear Falcons: I do believe in you. The win over the Saints was nice, even if you did pay Garret Hartley to kick that badly. However, you must blow out a bad team when you get them on the schedule. If you do, I will fully back your claim as an elite team. Thank you for your time.

Jags PK over Bills, 21-17

-I know, this is the Bills chance to avoid 0-16. However, I just think the Jags are better.

Colts -7 over Chiefs, 28-20

-Chiefs try really hard, but if you think the Colts are losing this game, you don’t watch football.

Rams +3 over Lions, 20-16

-Lions without Stafford still makes the difference. If the line is still 3.5, take that because this should be close at least. Pretty sure the Rams are a better team. I am also sure Sam Bradford is already better than Stafford, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, or Jason Campell EVER were. He might hit his first 3000 yards game.

(Side note: Peyton Manning had 3700 yards and 26 TDs with 28 INTs his rookie year. Bradford can replicate that, right?)

Packers -2.5 over Redskins, 31-17

-I mean, the Redskins aren’t that good, right? They just hurt Vick and McNabb played on emotion last week. And the Packers are really good, just need a kick.

Ravens -7 over Broncos, 30-17

-The Broncos have no running game, and the Ravens are going to embarrass them. Of course, Orton will have 300 yards regardless.

(Side note: Imagine if the record book for most passing yards was: 5. Brady (2007), 4. Warner (2001), 3. Brees (2008), 2. Marino (1984), 1. Orton (2010)? My head hurts.)

Texans -3 over Giants, 24-20

-Cushing inspires the defense, and Eli falls apart. Also, the Giants will not be able to run because Bradshaw is hurt and the other option in Brandon Jacobs.

Cowboys -6.5 over Titans, 27-17

-Chris Johnson does break a big one, but it doesn’t matter. The Cowboys are better, and need this. I would love to see how they cover Austin, Bryant, and Williams. Actually, I am excited to see how they don’t.

Saints -7 over Cardinals, 24-13

-Max. Hall.

Chargers -6 over Oakland, 33-10

-The Chargers are getting in gear, and are a much better team. Ryan Mathews has a big game here, but Gates gets shut down by double coverage and/or Nnamdi Asomugha.

Vikings +4.5 over Jets, 24-21

-I don’t trust Sanchez, and think they get him to throw a few picks slash the Vikes also stop the running game. I think Moss either lights up Cromartie if Revis doesn’t play, or Revis if he does. Favre goes sandlot, but it works. The Vikings need this game much more.

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-4

Against the Spread: 5-7

Record this year:

Straight up: 25-8

Against the Spread: 14-21

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 143-76
Against the Spread: 115-106 

BLISS

A Tweet about Moss

                 Late last night, I was up late working on a project, and I saw this tweet from my favorite writer, Bill Simmons:  

Sportsguy33: Moss Minny trade rumor

               

So, I sit there for a second, and go, WHAT? That doesn’t make sense. In fact, I will give you all the reasons it doesn’t make sense. There are plenty of them.

1. You don’t trade players in season. It happens in the NBA and MLB, and sometimes in Hockey. However, in the NBA, 16 games is a reasonable adjustment period. In the NFL, it is the season.

2. You don’t trade a top 3 player in general. Moss is still one of the best Patriots. He affects the game. He makes Wes Welker so productive.

3. If they were going to trade him, why not do it in the offseason and work other guys in earlier?

4. The team isn’t sinking. If the team is sinking (like Buffalo), you trade your good players that might be a little older. The Pats are 3-1, with a QB on the wrong side of 30, and are coming off of a great win. They can win now. The window is there. And yet, Moss is now not there with them.
5. Randy Moss is one of the top offensive players of all time. I would make an argument that he is actually pretty equivalent to Jerry Rice because of how he produces AND severely affects defenses. By the way, Rice has 197 TDs in 303 games over 20 seasons. Moss has 151 TDs in 180 games over 12.25 years.
6. Moss make coverages move, and gets other people open. Randy Moss has also been on the top two scoring offenses of all time, ten years apart. I mean, that isn't by coincidence. 

                However, after my initial stunned reaction, I had thought of one past Patriots player: Richard Seymour. Quick story, I was at a Boston College game last week and was thinking of Seymour. He was my favorite Patriot, and his is still the jersey I wear. Someone commented on how he wasn’t there anymore. First, I was insulted that apparently this person has no knowledge of what a throwback jersey is, or that Seymour helped them win 3 Super Bowls. Second, I had the thought, “Yes, Seymour IS still here”.

                No, I am not saying this because Oakland is so bad he doesn’t even count as having played there. What I mean is, what we got for Seymour is still really important and a part of this 2010 Patriots team: Oakland’s first round draft pick. The Pats are planning to have a very high draft pick. Imagine if the Pats got Mark Ingram with that pick? Now, Seymour was drafted early in the 1^st round. He gave NE 3 Super Bowls and a high 1^st round pick. Did the Pats lose two years of his productivity? Yes, they did. However, they got higher value than he was worth. The Pats were willing to give away something good now to get something great later.

               This is the reason they made this Moss deal. A 3^rd round pick is pretty decent value for a player who they got for a 4^th round pick, got 50 TDs out of, and won a lot of games with. They turn assets into better assets. The Patriots care little for personal feelings, friendship, or loyalty. However, this is why they are one of the most successful franchises. It is also why they turn people off.

                So, this deal makes total sense. For fantasy owners (4 Favre bombs a game, minimum, plus Moss will not have a bye week this year). For the Pats. For the future. For the NE fans and this year? Not so much. But, who cares what we think anyways? 

BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 4

Checking Down:

-STL is impressive. I saw them with the longest odds to win their division. Really? They are 2-2, ARI has no QB, SF has no heart or brain, and SEA just got embarrassed by STL.

-Speaking of Seattle, are they trying to turn over their entire roster by December? Pete Carroll, I know you are excited to be able to cut and trade for people, but calm down.

-Peyton is a machine. The Colts will be fine. That defense is terrible though, especially the run defense. However, if they get a lead, they are still the best team in football.

 -Orton continues his great play. Why did they select Tim Tebow again? A great lineman or pass rusher wouldn’t have helped this team? (copied from last week, but it needs to be said again)

-Derek Anderson, meet bench. The pick he threw to Shaun Phillips was so terrible it wouldn’t even happen in Madden. Is Larry Fitzgerald spending more time in therapy, or calling in to vote for the other players in Dancing with the Stars so Warner will get voted off?

-The Bears without Cutler are not good. They need to fix the O-Line, but without Cutler it doesn’t matter.  

-The Saints make me nervous. They are struggling, and it is not due to the running back injuries. They need a bye to get Pierre, Reggie, and most importantly Darren Sharper back. He gives them an edge.

-The Ravens aren’t scintillating, but I still think they are one of the most balanced teams in the league. Ed Reed is coming back, and like Sharper, he’ll advance them a level. I like my Super Bowl pick with them.

 -SF, that was better. Good effort. You are not out of it yet. Hell, when you are 2-9 you may STILL not be out of it.  

-Washington caught the Eagles in a weird moment, and hurt their two most important players. I still don’t buy them. Actually, all this win did was open things up for the Cowboys to retake command of the division.

-Officiating has been terrible this season. The end of half issue with Philly was horrendous. There should be an official upstairs watching everything that happens on the field with the best technology available, and they can call down to the field and make obvious changes.  

Going Long:

New England impresses me for a number of reasons. They have a very young team. They are teaching people to play in key positions (O-Line, DBs). The overall talent is not incredibly high compared to some other teams, and some of the offensive key players are getting older or recovering from injury. However, they are still 3-1. 

What really strikes me about NE is how well coached they are. The game turned on special teams, and that is where you can see good coaching at work. Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the NFL (who else is even close? Mike Tomlin? Norv Turner? Mike Shanahan? Mike McCarthy? I think this is the top 5, but are any of them really on Belichick’s level?)
 

NE will be fine come December. I am still not sure they advance far in the playoffs, but they will get there with 11 wins. Belichick also seems significantly more invested than in 2008 or 2009. He has his mojo back, and he knows he has like 2-3 more years of Brady-Moss-Welker prime. When Bill is on (and vindictive), it gets ugly for his opponents. 

In tight games, coaching does matter. Too many times we have seen above average coaches get killed because of timeouts blown and penalties for stupid things (Hello, Brad Childress). Clock management is also something that consistently rears its ugly head (I am looking at you Andy Reid). The Patriots, despite anything else they do, will not struggle with this issue. 


BLISS