2017 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

I’m going to preface this listing by saying these are both stay away games. The four QBs are Foles, Keenum, Bortles, and Brady with one good hand. Watch the games, enjoy, but please don’t bet, I beg of you.

Pats -8.5 over Jags, 27-16

-I don’t know what to do with Brady’s hand. It totally could be just a bad cut and scare that he is already mostly healed from. It could be a broken thumb they don’t want to call that. Hoyer could be playing going forward. It could be a jammed thumb, with Hoyer ready in case Brady either can’t play or has to come out partway through the game. This creates fascinating strategy options. Is Brady just going to play out of shotgun, throw quick slants and seams to TEs, and run over 50% of the time? That would actually make sense as the Jags as weak against the run relative to the pass and weak against TEs. Playing in shotgun and throwing quick passes early would also likely push Dareus off the field, allowing more running.

Ironic Burkhead was the one who injured Brady as his return was one of the things I was most excited about returning and being utilized. I want multiple backs on the field as much as possible. The Jags are worse against the run, the best against 1 back – 1 tight end – 3 wideout formations, and have some slower linebackers RBs can take advantage of. I think they still will.

The Jags are likely going to regress, and against the stout NE defense will score more in the 16-23 range. NE will score more than that, and I think it is more likely than not Bortles will not be able to help himself. The Pats will take away Fournette and take away quick seam single read passes. They will make Bortles make reads and/or go down the field. NE still has strength in the secondary, and I think that is a tick in their column.

Eagles +4 over Viks, 19-16

-Quarterback A: 28 year old QB on four teams with a 22-17 record, career stats are 9752 yards, 61 TDs, 29 INTs for an 87.4 rating.

-Quarterback B: 29 year old QB on four teams with a 20-18 record, career stats are 8771 yards, 46 TDs, 27 INTs for an 86 rating.

I have no real idea what to do here, because the narrative is that Keenum is better than Foles. He likely is. But Foles also now has had time to adjust to the primary role and settled into being the QB again. Quarterback A is Foles, B is Keenum. As much as I like looking Keenum better right now, I do note Foles throws touchdowns in bunches.

My first blush is that the Vikings are better. The Eagles it appears are just too weak without Wentz. The Vikings have this smart, fast, variable defense that I don’t know how Foles can work against. However, that Vikings defense is also a bit hurt and beat up right now. That was a hugely emotional win. The Saints ripped through them up in the second half. The Eagles stayed tough all the way through their game. Sark was only part of it. The Eagles have a great defense that people are forgetting about. I’m going to say that Foles does enough, and Keenum regresses a little, enough in total for an Eagles feel-good win. Ajayi and Blount will be a big part of this, and so will Jeffrey if the Viks secondary is weak. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 163-94

By Spread: 132-123

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1260-683
By Spread: 1036-911

2017 NFL Week 19 Predictions

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Falcons -3 over Eagles, 27-10

-I feel bad for the Eagles, but this is likely the easiest one on the board. The Falcons have rounded into shape just in time, are sharp and experienced, and catching Philly at time where the Eagles have no flow. It is just hard to expect Philly to win this game or really be close.

Pats -13.5 over Titans, 34-17

-The number scares me, but honestly this should be a blowout. The Pats have been playing with one hand tied behind their backs for a few weeks now on offense, and it should all be unleashed. Their defense is much improved, and should dominate an inconsistent Titans offense with injured players in key spots. I like Mariota, but not this year Tennessee.

Jags +7.5 over Steelers, 23-27

-Okay, this is by far the hardest one for me to figure out. I’m arguably biased against the Steelers. I am worried about their health, with Shazier not playing and Antonio Brown not definite in his ability to dominate as usual. The Jags dominated the Steelers earlier this season, picking Ben 5 times. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen again, but 2-3 is totally in play. Okay, so there is the case for the Jags. For the Steelers, they have enormously more experience, more versatility at running back, and they are playing rested against Blake Bortles. End result...I’ll take the points but the Steelers to win SU.

Saints +4 over Viks, 24-23

-The Viks looks like the tighter team right now. The Saints are winning, but not decisively. Not going to lie, the Saints hurt my feelings by not covering last weekend. But I have the Saints going to the Super Bowl, and am not going to let up on that now. It is still Brees versus Keenum, and the talent at the running back position vastly favors the Saints while Lattimore can play Adam T well enough. The defenses are both good with impact players, so I’ll take the experience and points. My 50-1 Saints preseason bet stays alive.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 0-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 162-91

By Spread: 130-121

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1259-680
By Spread: 1034-909

2017 NFL Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Round

Chiefs -9 over Titans, 24-13

-This is a big line to lay for a team I am not convinced is any good. However, Mariota hasn’t been right all year and now Murray is injured. The Titans’ identity just isn’t quite right, and the Chiefs are a professional team. They should cover this nicely.

Rams -5.5 over Falcons, 30-23

-I was on the edge about this game, and perhaps even leaning toward the Falcons a bit based on prior experience. However, I don’t know I like how the Falcons play in big games, and the Rams have shown the youthful quality of not knowing they should be scared or intimidated. I have believed in Goff all year, and Gurley isn’t going to care it’s a big moment. He’s going to dominate the ATL defense, and I’m not sure Julio and Freeman are consistent or healthy enough to counteract that. The Falcons are also easily the more injured and tired team, having multiple high stress and impact games down the stretch. The Rams don’t have to travel, don’t have the baggage of last year, and are fresh and rested. I like them fairly comfortably in this game. Oh, plus Aaron Donald is a monster that there is no way to deny.

Jags -9 over Bills, 27-13

-Wow am I going to enjoy taking the winner of this game versus either the Pats or Steelers next week. Jags shouldn’t be laying 9 to anyone in the playoffs, but with McCoy hurt and I’m assuming either not playing or playing seriously affected, I can’t take the Bills even with the 9. Nice of the Bills to make this, but I would have rather had the Chargers in this spot to make it a game. Jags score on defense and cover the spread.

Saints -6.5 over Panthers, 31-20

-Cam is going to have to throw the ball, and I am not sure he can. Nothing from this season has suggested he has the weapons, health, or skill level to be an elite level passer right now. The Saints could have absolutely come into the playoffs better, but are a more complete team that has beaten this team twice already. The RB tandem in NOLA will get 35 combined touches and have a ton of opportunities in this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 160-89

By Spread: 130-117

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1257-678
By Spread: 1034-905

2017 NFL Week 17 Predictions

Week 17 Predictions

Lions -7.5 over Packers, 27-13

-Lions want a winning record and even though I’m not sure Stafford plays a full game it may not matter. Packers are done for 2017.

Colts -4 over Texans, 20-12

-Colts are fighting, Texans are not.

Vikings -11.5 over Bears, 23-11

-Vikings want and need to lock up that 2^nd seed, likely getting them all the way to the Super Bowl if things break right. Bears did a great job last week and are fight hard, but this is a motivated, elite team. Bears are one of the best bad teams though, and look good to make a leap next year in an uneven division.

Pats -15.5 over Jets, 34-10

-Pats aren’t losing this game. It is just whether they cover this insane spread or not. I think they do, and the Jets are about done.

Ethnic Slurs -3.5 over Giants, 20-14

-Washington is ending strong enough to earn Kirk a bunch of money elsewhere.

Cowboys -2.5 over Eagles, 24-18

-Eagles have only barely won, and don’t have motivation for a matchup the Cowboys will be mad enough to play full out for. Also, low key likely Dez’s last game in Dallas. Witten’s too?

Steelers -14 over Browns, 27-10

-This is the Browns’ Super Bowl, but with Kizer that may not matter. Can he gets to 25 picks this year? Let’s see.

Falcons -4 over Panthers, 27-20

-The desperation for making the playoffs will replace the generally better play from Carolina lately. Carolina may actually have to throw here: At some point they will, and that will be the moment we see whether they can actually make a run. Julio, also, you know touchdowns are possible, right? Please replace Sark Falcons, it ruined your year.

Broncos -3.5 over Chiefs, 20-13

-Chiefs are locked into their seed, and Broncos have many players playing for their futures. I actually hope Lynch is decent, otherwise he may not get another shot.

Titans -6 over Jags, 20-10

-One might think that the Jags would love to knock out the Titans, a divisional foe and their likely week 18 matchup. However, the Jags reached to securing their division last week by letting down versus the Niners. They are a young team, and the first trip for this group to the playoffs may be distracting from this relatively meaningless game.

Chargers -7.5 over Raiders, 30-13

-Raiders finding ways to lose right now. Chargers need a win.

49ers +3 over Rams, 24-14

-Ram are sitting everyone, so thanks for the Brady MVP McVay! Jimmy G inexplicably will be 5-0. 

Seahawks -7.5 over Cards, 20-7

-Seahawks aren’t perfect, but need this to try to get in, and the Cards are facing so much Arians uncertainty.

Saints -7.5 over Bucs, 31-16

-There are a lot of uncomfortable 7.5 point lines here this week, but that makes sense I guess. Saints still in position to decide some spots and some seeding. It will also be better for them to start the playoffs in better rhythm.

Bills -3 over Fins, 17-13

-Generally more motivation for the Bills here, and plus Cutler is literally days away from the beach.

Ravens -9.5 over Bengals, 17-6

-Bengals may want to play spoiler, but the Ravens need a win to be in. Bengals go quietly into their post Marvin Lewis future.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 8-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 149-84

By Spread: 121-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1246-673
By Spread: 1025-898

NFL 2017 Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 Predictions

Ravens -13.5 over Colts, 20-3

-Bad news, I’m starting 3 Ravens in a fantasy finals this week. Good news, it’s Tucker, the DST, and Alex Collins. Do I need a shutout? Yes, Yes I do.

Vikings -9 over Packers, 24-12

-Without Rodgers, and the hope for the playoffs, this might be ugly. Good Hundley or Bad Hundley? I’d bet on Bad. Viks want that seeding.

Lions -4 over Cincy, 26-13

-Cincy flat quit last week. Marvin needs to get out of here in two weeks before they turn on him.

Chargers -7 over Jets, 30-3

-Jets are done, and are now the team that I thought they would be to start the year. Maybe McCown should be considered for next year. Chargers need to win out to have any chance now, so they will be up for this game.

Rams -6.5 over Titans, 27-13

-Titans somehow are still right at the edge of the playoffs, but are not a good team. The Rams are going to illustrate that this week. Good luck scoring Mariota.

Bears -6.5 over Browns, 17-9

-Oh Browns. I thought about taking the Dogs with so many points and this being their last real chance to win this season (they have Pitt next week). But the Bears are at least a real team, and the smart money is probably on Chicago. Wish I had made the Finals in the league I have Jordan Howard: It should be a big week for him.

Panthers -10 over Bucs, 26-6

-Bucs are done, and the Panthers defense is vicious. I wouldn’t be playing Jameis this week.

Saints -5.5 over Falcons, 30-22

-Big set of NFC South games the next two weeks. The Saints are due for a stronger showing than the last two weeks, and perhaps have been looking ahead at these games. Falcons still don’t seem quite right, and Julio is nursing multiple injuries.

Broncos +3.5 over Washington, 16-13

-No. Just no. Don’t watch it.

Chiefs -10.5 over Fins, 26-10

-Fins are done, the Chiefs seem to be mostly on track again. KC closes the division, and Cutler is counting down the weeks to arriving at whatever beach he aims takes his next photo at.

Pats -12 over Bills, 30-17

-I am a little scared about Gronk and White, but overall this is where the Bills get finally and completely knocked out. Brady firms up the MVP here with a big game. Lewis and White will both be good fantasy plays with Burkhead out.

Jags -4 over 49ers, 20-12

-49ers have had a nice run, but this is Jimmy G’s first really big test. Jags secondary will show him down some. 49ers don’t want to ruin their pick that much.

Giants +3.5 over Cards, 20-18

-Eli is awake now, and flinging the ball all over the field, mostly to his team too. Cards couldn’t beat what remains of the Washington Professional Football team last week, couldn’t even cover. I’m not bitter at all. Not even a little.

Cowboys -5 over Seahawks, 24-17

-Two teams with different emotions and paths, though about the same playoff chances at this point. Seattle needs the NFC South to completely combust to get in, but after that shellacking last week there is no way I am betting on them. Zeke coming back finalizes my feelings on this one.

Steelers -9.5 over Texans, 20-10

-Steelers are going to win out knowing they have to in order to hold the #2 seed from the Jags (the effing Jags).

Raiders +9 over Eagles, 24-27

-I don’t know Foles can do that two weeks in a row, the Eagles may have things sown up by this point on Monday night, and the Raiders are still alive. That’s just too many points.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 138-79

By Spread: 113-102

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1235-688
By Spread: 1017-890

2017 NFL Week 15 Predictions

Week 15 Predictions

Broncos -2.5 over Colts, 20-10

-Broncos have righted the ship a little bit, and the Colts have to feel finally defeated after that loss in Buffalo.

Lions -5.5 over Bears, 26-20

-Bears are fighting hard, but the Lions are still alive for a playoff spot in a suddenly very interesting NFC North.

Chargers -1.5 over Chiefs, 24-22

-Chiefs righted the ship last week, but the Chargers are rolling behind dark horse MVP candidate Phillip Rivers.

Fins pk over Bills, 17-16

-Without Tyrod, you have to think the Fins continue their positive run.

Eagles -7.5 over Giants, 24-13

-Stay away, because I have no idea what happens in this game. But I figure, Wentz seems about as important as Zeke is to their relative teams, but Foles is a better backup relative Alfred Morris, and if Dallas beats the Giants by 20….yeah I worked too hard on that one.

Cards +4.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-18

-Cards are still technically alive, and I’m not sure the Washington franchise can technically field a fully healthy team right now.

Vikings -10.5 over Bengals, 26-13

-Bengals need a hard reboot after what we have seen the last few weeks. Ugh, that was painful. Vikings will just keep collecting wins.

Saints -16 over Jets, 31-6

-Wow that’s a bit line. But no McCown presumably, Saints coming off 10 days rest and a tough loss, they will be out for blood. Big game from Ingram here I think.

Packers +3 over Panthers, 27-23

-Any time you can take Aaron Rodgers and points, you do it. You know what the best part of that sentence is? WE HAVE AARON RODGERS BACK!!!!

Ravens -7 over Browns, 20-9

-This should be a blowout, and a big game from Alex Collins. Am I saying that because he is intimately involved in my fantasy title hopes? Goddamn right I am.

Jags -11 over Texans, 23-10

-Texans are done and the Jags are hot. Bortles isn’t really Bortling right now, so the Jags look…settled, organized? Scary thought.

Rams +2.5 over Seahawks, 24-23

-This should be close, and I’ll take the points and the younger team that is healthier. Goff, this is it, your time to seize the division…perhaps for the foreseeable future.

Patriots -3 over Steelers, 31-27

-Pats are unlikely to lose two in a row, unlikely to suffer bad back to back Brady performances, and generally own this Steelers team. It is time for the Steelers to win a close game.

49ers -2 over Titans, 20-13

-49ers go to 3-0 under Jimmy G, who is quickly asserting himself as an awesome dynasty option. The 49ers could be your quick turnaround team next year in what could be an awesome division for years to come.

Raiders +3.5 over Cowboys, 23-22

-Cowboys had a nice win last week and the Raiders a demoralizing loss, but I think they reverse profiles this week mainly due to each’s status in the playoff race.

Falcons -6 over Bucs, 30-22

-The Falcons will dominate this game versus a defeated Bucs team. Cmon Julio, one big one for the fantasy playoffs?

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-7

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 127-74

By Spread: 104-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1224-683
By Spread: 1008-883

2017 NFL Week 14 Predictions

Week 14 Predictions

Saints +1 over Falcons, 27-23

-Am I confused or missing something? How are the Saints not favorites by at least 3? I know the Falcons are at home, but the Saints are trending some positively and the Falcons are treading water at minimum. This is also such an awesome Thursday night game to start the fantasy playoffs, good job schedule-makers.

Bills pk over Colts, 20-10

-Bills are still a better team than this group that quit weeks ago.

Bengals -6 over Bears, 17-10

-Bengals, you hurt my feelings by not winning last when you had the chance. And for contributing to a gladiatorial version of a football game that singlehandedly reminded people

Packers -3 over Browns, 20-12

-Bill Belichick could coach for 52 more years at 0-16 and still have a higher winning percentage than Hue. Fun fact.

Raiders +4.5 over Chiefs, 20-19

-There is no way I can take the Chiefs, not with how they are trending. Since the Raiders game, really…

Cowboys -4.5 over Giants, 24-10

-I have to, just makes too much sense.

Lions -1 over Bucs, 24-22

-Just don’t trust Jameis. Hopefully Stafford is a bit healthier than last week.

Vikings -2.5 over Panthers, 24-20

-Vikings showing how much strong schemes, lines, and coaching can overcome injuries and changes at skill positions and QB. Panthers are…not showing that at all.

49ers +3.5 over Texans, 21-13

-Jimmy G! Texans in free fall.

Jags -3 over Seahawks, 20-13

-Okay Seattle. If you can win this on the road on a shorter week and with your injuries, I’m in. For now, I am staying with Bortles. Wait, what?

Jets -1 over Broncos, 20-8

-I am stunned I am saying this, but clearly, this Jets team is MILES better than their opponent this week. I need to go bathe now.

Titans -3 over Cards, 20-16

-Titans aren’t that much better, but they need it and the Cards are done.

Chargers -6 over Ethnic Slurs, 26-19

-Chargers keep rolling on a good schedule. Question for a friend…will Jordan Reed be healthy ever again?

Eagles +2 over Rams, 28-26

-Just seems like a bounce back week for the Eagles. Let’s not forget how good they have been: Teams as good as them have gone to Seattle and lost as well.

Ravens +5.5 over Steelers, 16-17

-Injuries adding up for the Steelers, and their win streak has been built on tenuous contests. It has to come due at some point.

Patriots -11 over Fins, 30-13

-Fins will likely put up a fight, but Pats are in cruise control now. Big Cooks day coming.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 12-3

By Spread: 12-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 118-67

By Spread: 95-88

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1215-676
By Spread: 999-876