2021 NFL Week 3 Predictions

 2021 NFL Week 3 Predictions

 

Panthers -8 over Texans, 24-13

-How bad do I think this is going to be? I considered playing Darnold, CMC, and DJ Moore in a KOM league.

 

Ravens -8 over Lions, 33-20

-Ravens showed more resiliency last week than I thought considering all of their injuries. 

 

Giants -3 over Falcons, 23-17

-To be honest, I like this Falcons team WAY more than I like this Giants team. Talent-wise, the Falcons offense is healthier, makes more sense, and is more dynamic. However, despite their identical records, clearly, the Giants have been better. At home, outdoors, I think you just have to take the Giants. 

 

Pats - 3 over Saints, 24-16

-We know what the Pats are. They’re going to score about 23 points a game, with hard running, high accuracy, short distance passing, and low turnover football. The Saints...we have no idea. Are they as good they were in Week 1? Or was that just a motion coming off of the hurricane? I’m willing to bet this Saint’s team is just that limited offensively and the Pats grind one out.

 

Bengals +4 over Steelers, 24-23

-I took the Steelers last week for the first time in about five years. This was clearly wrong. With no TJ Watt, the Bengals are able to move the ball enough to win.

 

Titans -5 over Colts, 27-20

-No way I am betting on a team that will either have Jacob Eason or Carson Wentz with TWO sprained ankles. 

 

Bills -7 over WFT, 31-20

-I like Heinicke and that’s why I am giving Washington this many points. I’m super disappointed in their defense, which I dropped in four leagues this week. 

 

Chargers +7 over Cheifs, 37-34

-It’s happening! We’re doing this! Everyone with me? (looks back over shoulder...is alone...continues trotting...)

 

Listen, I get it. It’s tough to make this leap. But Herbert can do this! They should have way more points this year than they do because of dumb penalties and bad circumstances. The Chiefs can be run on and denied the ball...and I think that’s what is going to happen here. HUGE game from Ekeler coming. 

 

Cards -7.5 over Jags, 32-14

-Honestly, I wouldn’t bet the over because the Jags look a little rough.

 

Browns -7 over Bears, 23-12

-There are interesting components on both teams. I want to watch next to nothing of this game. 

 

Broncos -10 over Jets, 27-3

-*shrugs* 

 

Raiders -4 over Dolphins, 28-10

-I might be at the Acceptance stage with Tua. 

 

Seahawks -1.5 over Vikings, 39-37

-1. Great fantasy game. 2. Strong uniform and color combination. 3. Neither team knows how to finish a football game. 4. OVER

 

Bucs -1.5 over Rams, 31-27

-Kupp might have a great game, but I just don’t like the matchup anywhere else here. But, this should be an awesome contest. I would not be surprised if this is the NFC title game. 

 

Packers +3 over 49ers, 30-17

-I’m confused. I also watched what happened to the Packers two weeks ago. But, this is still Aaron Rodgers...versus Jimmy Garppolo...this is Rodgers in primetime. I’m getting points? Sign me up for THAT. 

 

Cowboys -3.5 over Eagles, 27-20

-Eagles have been...okay. But, trying to match offenses with Dallas likely isn’t going to work out well for them.

 

 

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 7-8

 

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 18-13

By Spread: 14-17

 

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1740-955
By Spread: 1421-1279

2021 NFL Week 2 Predictions

 2021 NFL Week 2 Predictions

 

Broncos -6 over Jags, 23-16

-Broncos are a much more solid team. Their defense is a significant step up from the Houston team Trevor Lawrence played last week.

 

Bills -3.5 over Dolphins, 26-20

-Bills aren’t going to lose two in a row and while the Miami defense is solid...it’s not Pittsburgh.

 

Browns -12.5 over Texans, 31-10

-That was nice, Houston. Good luck versus this team.

 

Bengals +3 over Bears, 24-23

-Until Fields plays, there’s a very low ceiling for this Bear’s offense. As weak as the Bengals are on the OL, and various parts of the defense, they’re so good at the skill positions. And with the Bears so bad at defending skill positions, it won’t matter. 

 

49ers -3 over Eagles, 26-16

-I can’t wait until Week 8 when the 49ers are on their 7th RB off the streets and I still spend 40% of my FAAB budget on them. Excited to watch Devonta Smith, though. 

 

Saints -3.5 over Panthers, 27-13

-The Saints might be a real contender that was hiding in plain sight. It’s possible that losing the limited version of Brees that they had, and the idea of what the team with Brees was, actually freed them from self-imposed constraints. I also like the idea that they started Taysom last year so Jameis couldn’t play well and garner a better contract. The Panthers tried hard last week, but the Saint’s are NOT the Jets.

 

Rams -3.5 over Colts, 38-13

-Wow is this team loaded. To my eyes, the Rams are better than the Seahawks, who just rolled this Colts team. 

 

Steelers -6.5 over Raiders, 17-10

-I am really going to try to not watch one minute of this game. 

 

Pats -5.5 over Jets, 27-16

-Bill doesn’t lose to rookie QBs and I love what I have seen from Mac so far.

 

Cards -3.5 over Vikings, 31-27

-Just take the over, baby. 

 

Bucs -12.5 over Falcons, 34-20

-This could get ugly in Tampa. 

 

Chargers -3.5 over Cowboys, 37-33

-I am so excited for so many points! They’re all going to score points! There are so many points!

 

Seahawks -6.5 over Titans, 31-24

-Yikes, the Titans are our surprise 0-2 team, aren’t they? Oh well, they will still win the AFC South. 

 

Chiefs -3.5 over Ravens, 33-27

-I’d love to pick the Ravens, but this broken shell of a team is only getting half a TD versus Mahomes. You just have to take the Cheifs here. 

 

Packers -12.5 over Lions, 33-12

-That’s a lot of points to lay after watching the horror of Green Bay’s performance versus New Orleans last week. However, this is the Lions we’re talking about.

 

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 8-8

By Spread: 7-9

 

Record in 2020:

Straight Up: 169-88

By Spread: 130-128

 

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1730-950
By Spread: 1414-1271

2021 NFL Week 1 Predictions

 2021 NFL Week 1 Predictions

 

Falcons -3.5 over Eagles, 24-20

-I don’t trust the Eagles mismatched roster and I’m at least somewhat positive about what Arthur Smith can do in Atlanta.

 

Panthers -4 over Jets, 20-13

-The Jets may be a professional team, but need to be treated as if they aren’t one. The Panthers are at least a professional team.

 

Chargers +1 over WFT, 30-20

-I actually like WFT’s defense a lot, but the Chargers are my sleeper team and I’ll still take the dominant offense over the dominant defense. 

 

49ers -8.5 over Lions, 31-12

-To me, this is the safest eliminator pick. Might be the best days all season for the 49ers RBs and Defense for fantasy. 

 

Bills -6.5 over Steelers, 29-13

-It makes me sad that here I am, ready to fade the Steelers, but Vegas is there in front of me. This line could’ve been 3.5, but people seem to have caught on that Steelers are not going to be good. 

 

Seahawks -3 over Colts, 31-24

-I’m somewhat excited to see what Shane Waldron does with the Seahawks offense. I’m not excited to see what Carson Wentz does with the Colts offense. 

 

Vikings -3 over Bengals, 26-22

-This could actually be a high-yardage game for both teams, but the Vikings are a far more complete entity. 

 

Jags -3 over Texans, 17-10

-I’ll take the team with some excitement over the team with pending court cases.

 

Titans -3 over Cards, 34-30

-Just take the over, baby.

 

Pats -3 over Dolphins, 28-24

-Looking forward to Mac’s efficient and boring first win as a Patriot. 

 

Broncos -3 over Giants, 20-16

-What a change for Daniel Jones. It’ll be a bunch of Broncos on top of him instead of a bunch of the Giants. 

 

Packers -3.5 over Saints, 33-23

-Does this line feel too low? Really feels like this line is too low. 

 

Browns +6.5 over Chiefs, 31-30

-History is kind to SB winners in openers. It is generally not kind to SB losers. I’m just taking the points and am just a little nervous about the Chiefs’ WR depth. 

 

 

Rams -7.5 over Bears, 31-17

-Really I just want this to be bad enough that we see Fields. 

 

Raiders +4.5 over Ravens, 29-27

-The Dobbins and Edwards injuries are unfortunate and painful. But, overcomable. The Peters injury actually really hurts them more and was the catalyst for thinking, “uh oh, we actually have a problem here.” Finally, thinking to yourself, “I have a problem, but Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell are the answer,” brings it over the edge. 

 

Record in 2020:

Straight Up: 169-88

By Spread: 130-128

 

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1722-942
By Spread: 1407-1262

2021 NFL Playoff Predictions, Awards, and Opening Night

Division Winners

AFC East – Bills – They’re just the best team in the division with the best player in the division

AFC North – Browns – Not picking the Patriots in the AFC East and picking the Browns in the AFC North...what world are we living in?

AFC South – Titans – Worried about Derrick Henry’s workload and Arthur Smith leaving for Atlanta...but with the rest of the division, this is kind of a default.

AFC West – Chiefs – I so want to pick the Chargers...but Mahomes.  

AFC Wild Cards – Chargers. Patriots. Ravens. 

AFC Championship – Chiefs over Chargers

 

NFC East – Cowboys? – Assuming any and all parts of Dak’s body work correctly.   

NFC North – Packers – Aaron Rodgers. That is all. 

NFC South – Bucs – Brady. Brady. Brady…..Brady. 

NFC West – Rams – This paper-thin team worries the heck out of me...but fully healthy...it’s going to be a monster. 

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks. Saints. 49ers.

NFC Championship – Packers over Bucs 

 

Superbowl:  Packers over Chiefs. The Aaron Rodgers drama is overshadowing how awesome a team this is top to bottom. They’ll figure out the offensive line and give Rodgers one more go. 

 

Awards

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

-I’m looking for a way for the answer to not be Patrick Mahomes. But the answer is Patrick Mahomes.

 

OPY: Alvin Kamara

-He’ll have to be. 

 

DPY: Aaron Donald

-He’s actually just the best player in football.  

ORY: Mac Jones

-Opportunity meets visibility meets success. Najee Harris will be on a team that I don’t think is going to do well. Lawrence and Wilson are far more talented, but their teams suck. Fields and Lance aren’t going to play right away. Mac just kind of has all of the boxes.  

 

DRY: Micah Parsons

-He’s going to call the plays, have gaudy tackle numbers, have exciting plays rushing the passer, and he plays for Dallas. It’s Micah Parsons. 

 

COY: Brandon Staley - Chargers 

-Herbert’s step up, defensive improvements (especially with Derwin James returning), and the fact that the Chargers can’t have worse kicking and close-game luck means the formula is there for Staley to win. 

 

Opening Night: 

Bucs -8 over Cowboys, 34-24

-This is a big line, but the Superbowl Champs win at home in these situations all of the time. Add in uncertainty about Dak, Dallas health issues on the offensive line, and a new defense. You kind of just have to lay the eight. 

 

Record in 2020:

Straight Up: 169-88

By Spread: 130-128

 

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1722-942
By Spread: 1407-1262

NFL 2020 Week 21 Predictions: SB Sunday

 2020 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Weekend

 

Bucs +3 over Chiefs, 27-24

 

I am honestly not entirely sure what to do with the game. I've looked at it from a lot of perspectives and tried to figure out how high my confidence is for the various things we can pick. Here are my favorites in order: Brady over 291 yards, game under 56.5 points, and Bucs +3 (3.5 if you can still get that). 

 

In terms of game, I'd believe KC blowout, KC win close, and TB win close. I am heartened taking the Bucs by the result from Week 12. TB had no answers for Hill and he screamed all over the field for massive yardage and game defining plays. The Chiefs looked far the better team, it was in TB just like this is, and the Chiefs created so many problems for the Tampa game plan. And then they only won by 3. 

 

Two things are true. The Chiefs are hot and cold. They haven't really run the ball well for 2 months. They wake up late, have miscues, and rely on Mahomes to bring them back. Also true: They are the best team on the planet at coming back, because of the most lethal passing attack we have ever seen. They have won all those games they were super close in, despite errors and lapses. They really only have been beaten by two people in the last three seasons in any game that mattered: Themselves and Tom Brady. 

 

So here is the thought and hope at why Tampa can do this. Saying "Tom" is reductive and simplistic. It's a factor. And he knows his legacy has a piece here: 7 isn't a ton more than 6, even if it surpasses Jordan. It's more stopping Mahomes from his second, and making Mahomes 0-2 vs. Tom in the playoffs, which will make Mahomes' GOAT case much harder 20 years from now. Tampa can move the ball on offense fine anyways, and Tom will pile up yardage. I have no idea to whom, that's why I'm taking his yardage total and none of the individual receivers'. And Tampa can and should try to shorten the game, run the ball, tucker the defense out, and keep their defensive ends energetic and rested. But I'm actually more interested in the other side of the ball. 

 

KC creates problems with Kelce and Hill. The other receivers aren't awesome, but they benefit from the attention elsewhere and because of their pure speed. TB is a good team to try to disarm Kelce and Hill. They failed terribly for a half to do that in Week 12. That lesson will help, and their full personnel will too. They have the LBs to try to cover Kelce. And they likely will use their young and fast safeties to cover Hill rather than leaving Davis on an island again (he also literally can't be worse). I foresee so much more bumping and jamming, and man coverage across the rest of the players. Tampa's ability to get pressure with 4 and use LBs to cover the middle gives them hope at winning. 

 

Again this is a low confidence prediction. That's why I like the Brady over the most, and the under second (I like the under because Super Bowls are traditionally slow starting and scoring. Brady has scored 3 points in the first quarter of Super Bowls. All of them). Chiefs win this game 60% of the time or more. But at home (what a rare quirk), with the GOAT, in a weird year, and with offensive line injuries in KC, I will take the 3 free points and Tampa Bay. Good luck all, and see you next season.

 

 

Record Last Week: 

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 0-2

 

Record this Year: 

Straight Up: 168-88

By Spread: 129-128

 

Lifetime Record:

Straight Up: 1721-942

By Spread: 1406-1262

NFL 2020 Week 20 Predictions

  

Bills +3 over Chiefs, 35-34

-I am so nervous betting against the Chiefs and Mahomes. But here is why I will do this. Bills are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. They are hot and in rhythm. Beasley is getting healthier. I do think they miss Z. Moss, but otherwise I love the matchups. Tre’Davious White to my eyes is still the best corner in the NFL, and I trust him on Tyreek Hill. 

 

Mahomes looked cleared to play, and I’m glad he is healthy. The league is better with its best players. But to not expect rust and the possibility of inconsistency, especially when KC has had a decent amount of inconsistency this year, would be folly. KC last had a good win I guess week 14 (by 6 over the Dolphins were at the height of their powers). Week 15 they beat the Saints by 3 in Brees first game back, barely beat Atlanta Week 16, rested 17, had a bye 18, and ecked out the game Mahomes got knocked out of last week versus the Browns. And when KC beat the Bills earlier this year, it was a ton of running behind CEH’s season high, but he may not even play or be gimpy if he does. 

 

Now Travis Kelce could murder the Bills across the middle. But I’m going to take the FG, the upstarts, and the very talented Josh Allen and Diggs combination. 

 

 

Packers -3.5 over Bucs, 33-27

-This is very close. And like last week, I am so afraid to pick against Tom in the playoffs. But, the Packers are at home versus a team from Florida. The Packers are playoff tested, and for the Bucs most of them have been there once, this year. The Bucs have no Antonio Brown, a gimpy Ronald Jones, and a newly re integrated Vita Vea (who is amazing, I’ll admit). Aaron Rodgers is at the height of his powers, the Packers are far more balanced, healthy, and consistent. I like that consistency, and will drop the 3.5, which I wouldn’t normally do, for this game. 

 

 

 

Record Last Week: 

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-2

 

Record this Year: 

Straight Up: 168-86

By Spread: 129-126

 

Lifetime Record:

Straight Up: 1721-940

By Spread: 1406-1260

NFL 2020 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

  

2020 NFL Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Weekend

Packers -6.5 over Rams, 31-17

-I have a lot of respect for the Rams defense and Sean McVay as well. However, I can’t ignore the fact that their offense has been inconsistent and unable to produce big plays with any regularity. Goff has a broken thumb, Kupp is limping around, and this is in Green Bay. The Packers are rested. They are rolling. It is starting to snow. 

 

Bills -2.5 over Ravens, 30-22

-The Ravens are on a nice roll. And I wish the Bills had been a bit more convincing last week over the Colts. However, I have to reflect that I’ve undersold the strength of the Colts all year in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and how that makes them hard to blow out. The Bills are tested, the Ravens have had a relatively easy schedule in the second half they rightfully dominated. The Titans I still think are a good team, but made horrible decisions in that game last week. The Ravens ran it all over them, dominated the ball, and looked like much the better team by the eye-test….and only won by 7. Lamar Jackson, much like Jared Goff, is going into snow for the first time. I’ll take the Bills, especially under the half point. 

 

Chiefs -10 over Browns, 34-23

-Honestly, I want to support the Browns here. And I will be rooting for them. The script is there: underdog story, blue chip players on both sides of the ball, innovative new coach with a new culture in a football loving city. reminds me a bit of 2001 Patriots playing the Raiders. But there is no snow game, and Mahomes is miles above Rich Gannon. The Chiefs are rested. The Brown’s hope is the running game, controlling the clock, and keeping it out of Mahomes’ hands. However, there are way too many ways for the Chiefs to win this game. If it becomes a shootout with Baker and Mahomes, that’s going to be a disaster. 

 

Saints -3 over Bucs, 31-27

-Listen, I hardly even would or would encourage betting against Tommy in the playoffs. It tends not to go well. But here’s the case for this game. It is in New Orleans, the Bucs tend to go through spells without dominating games, and the Bucs are beat up in several places. The Saints for whatever reason, I’m assuming schematic and continuity based, have thrashed the Bucs twice this year. And, Kamara didn’t have a huge game in either contest. I think that changes for this contest, and the Saints win again. They have been tested this year, withstood injuries, and built depth and experience. Now with everyone back, it is time to roll. 

 

 

Record Last Week: 

Straight Up: 2-4

By Spread: 4-2

 

Record this Year: 

Straight Up: 165-85

By Spread: 127-124

 

Lifetime Record:

Straight Up: 1718-939

By Spread: 1404-1258