Division Winners
AFC East – Bills – They’re just the best team in the division with the best player in the division…again
AFC North – Bengals - Baltimore remains a really good team that just had a lot of bad injury luck. However, I’m not convinced all of that injury luck has been rectified. Dobbins still is not healthy and Lamar, by nature of his skill set, will be injury prone. The Bengals are young, talented, won the conference last year, and fixed their only weakness.
AFC South – Colts - Boring, but not an exciting division. JT + Offensive Line = Boring 10 wins.
AFC West – Chargers – Maybe the most top-heavy talented team in the league. Quietly impressed with how good the offensive line and pass rush has gotten while everyone is looking at the glitzy offense and corners.
AFC Wild Cards – Chiefs.Ravens.Patriots (Honorable Mention: Jaguars)
AFC Championship – Chargers over Bengals
NFC East – Eagles – Hurts got better and they added a real WR.
NFC North – Packers – Am I worried about the WRs? A little bit. But the rest of the team is a solid B+ at every position and they still have a Jedi master at QB.
NFC South – Bucs – The least good about this I felt in the Tom Brady/Bucs era…but do you want to pick anyone else?
NFC West – Rams – This paper-thin team worries the heck out of me...but fully healthy...it’s still going to be a monster. Despite what happened Thursday night.
NFC Wild Cards – Vikings.Saints.49ers (Honorable Mention: Lions)
NFC Championship – Packers over Eagles
Superbowl: Chargers over Packers
-Herbert cements himself as the best overall player in a highly competitive, generationally talented, QB grouping.
Awards
MVP: Justin Herbert
-Fully loaded. I’m not halfway in, I’m all in.
OPY: Justin Jefferson
-He’s a younger, faster, more athletic Cooper Kupp in the Cooper Kupp role.
DPY: Nick Bosa
-Quietly a monster on what might be the best defense in the NFL. Donald is probably a hair too old, Myles Garrett is on a team that is too unlikable, and TJ Watt unlikely to repeat.
ORY: Chris Olave
-Opportunity + team success + there’s no starting rookie QBs = Chris Olave. He’s just so damn smooth.
DRY: Aidan Hutchinson
-Biggest name. Kavon is already hurt + Hard Knocks bump.
COY: Brandon Staley - Chargers
-The Chargers even winning the division over the Chiefs means that he’s going to get recognition.
2021 NFL Week 1 Predictions
Eagles -5.5 over Lions, 28-22
-And I like the Lions, too. But the Eagles got a lot better.
Colts -7 over Texans, 27-19
-Maybe your easiest Eliminator pick of the week. Assuming Matt Ryan isn’t completely shot, this is going to be your most predictable 8-win floor, 11-win ceiling team. Texans are probably going to take a few small steps forward this year (I like Mills better than most), but not enough.
Panthers pk over Browns, 24-22
-Baker gets “revenge”? The Browns still have a lot of talent, but all of the juju is against them. They are at Carolina and CMC is theoretically healthy.
49ers -7 over Bears, 37-10
-Honestly, Lance makes me nervous. But the Bears could be so atrociously bad this year, it won’t matter. This should be a romp.
Jags +3.5 over Commanders, 24-20
-I sneaky like the Jags as a competitive 8 or 9-win team this year. I like nothing about the Washington Commanders.
Patriots +3.5 over Dolphins, 24-23
-Am I nervous about the Patriots offense? Sure am. Am I grabbing any Belichick team getting 3.5 points in a season opener? Sure am.
Bengals -7 over Steelers, 31-22
-This is a sneaky important game for the Bengals. They are the favorites, conference champs, and should roll over the Steelers. And if they do, we have a new Bengals team. So let’s do it, friends.
Ravens -6.5 over Jets, 31-9
-This feels like a free half point.
Saints -5.5 over Falcons, 26-15
-We have no way of knowing what the Falcons offense will look like. However, the Saints just have way more talent and spent time adding rather than subtracting.
Chiefs -6.5 over Cardinals, 31-20
-I get the Cards had a nice record last year and are at home, but this feels like a free half point. Cards also just have so many injuries in addition to all the weirdness around this team.
Titans -5.5 over Giants, 20-6
-I want to say this feels like a really easy, “take the favorite, lay the points” especially because it’s not even 6. However, something doesn’t feel right about the game overall. To be clear, I like nothing about the Giants right now. But I’ll be staying away from this game overall.
Packers -2 over Vikings, 33-30
-Ok, let’s do this. It’s Week 1. It is a ridiculous statement to say this is a must-win for the Vikings. But it’s kind of a must-win for the Vikings. They’re all hyped up to finally take control of the division. But if they lose…at home…to a Packers team that is kind of auditioning guys at WR from the local YMCA…it’s going to be really hard to come back from that. Absent anything else, I trust infrastructure and consistency.
Chargers -3.5 over Raiders, 34-28
-Raiders offense is much improved. But their weaknesses on the offensive line are badly matched with all of the Chargers’ additions at pass rusher. Plus, you know, the Raiders still can’t stop the Chargers. So there’s that, too.
Bucs -2.5 over Cowboys, 27-23
-I have like, Level 2 weird factor with Tampa right now. But I got Level 4 weird factor with Dallas. Thin at WR, no offensive tackle, Zeke about to hit a cliff, Mike McCarthy is still involved. I’ll take Tampa.
Broncos -6.5 over Seahawks, 26-16
-This, ladies and gentlemen, is in fact a free half point.
Record Last Year:
Straight Up: 175-100
By Spread: 147-128
Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1888-1037
By Spread: 1545-1383
