NFL 2011 Week 20 Predictions: Conference Championship Round

The Conference Championship Round!

Reasons to love it:

Truly the best teams of the season are playing, in terms of talent and continuity. They have earned their way here. Each team played a good game last week, no byes to come off of but everyone is relatively healthy. Normally there are good storylines and rivalries from this conference games, and that exists here.

Reasons to hate it:

We all suddenly have this realization football is almost done. We only have football one day a week (considering at one point a month ago you could get Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, this is a big shift). This is the end of the continuous football season (The Super Bowl is after a two week layover, with all the pomp and circumstance, in a neutral site. Not as bad as the BCS title game coming after 5 weeks off but similar.) Also, it is sad that some good and favorite teams are now out of it and will not be playing. During the Divisional Round there is a good chance you have one of the eight teams that you want to see win. By the final four, there is a good chance you don’t.

Overall of course, this is a great time for football. While conference championships don’t really mean much, it is nice to see back to back QUALITY games on Sunday.

AFC title game: Pats -7 over Ravens, 34-20

-A solid two touchdown victory is in the cards here. Before I get to any other analysis, I would like to dispel some notions.

The first is that Flacco is terrible in big games. The guy won twice versus Pittsburgh this year. He has won playoff games each year of his 4 year career, and this isn’t by accident. His defense is good, but he had more to do with those wins than Sanchez had to do with the Jets’ wins the last few years.

However, Flacco isn’t exactly good either and he can get very stiff and rarely gets past read #2. The Ravens are a tough team and unlike the Pats did beat a winning team this year. However, the QBs they played against included Dalton twice, Colt McCoy twice, The Colts terrible two, Skelton, Bradford, and Sanchez. They lost somehow to Jacksonville and Seattle.

While we are on the subject, the whole “Pats not being a winning team” thing is becoming extremely overblown. Technically you could say that. However, they did beat people when those teams WERE winning teams. The Broncos were an 8-5 team in the regular season when they played, and a 9-8 team in the postseason when they beat them the second time. The Pats also beat the Chargers, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets (twice) and all finished directly at .500. So, without the matchup with the Pats being taken into account those teams were over .500. Actually, the Jets were 8-6 against teams not named the Patriots. The Pats were not beating 4-12 teams every week. And ask anyone who played the Dolphins this year if they were pushovers.

When it comes to the title game this week, I actually think the result is simple: the Ravens can’t score 30 points. Nothing about their season in general or the Texans game in particular suggests that they can score nearly enough points to be competitive. I fully expect that the Pats will struggle more than they usually do against what is a good Ravens defense. But they will score 27 points minimum. That by itself should be enough to win this game.

The Patriots did lose two years ago, but these are not the same teams. The Ravens got older and a bit slower. Rice is wearing down a bit. The Pats did not have Welker due to injury, and hadn't even drafted Gronk and Hernandez yet. Those TEs change Baltimore's ability to blitz, cover the middle of the field, and move Brady around.

Ed Reed being hurt really hamstrings the Ravens’ ability to defend the deep passes and run creative blitzes, as does the fact that the Ravens run defense is so good…but the Pats don’t really run the ball. Suggs will be rushing against a good O-Line or forced to cover TEs that he simply cannot stay with. Thus his usefulness will be limited. Yes, the Ravens feel good about themselves, have won here in the past, and the weather won’t bother them. But honestly, it just won’t matter because NE can produce points. The Ravens struggle to produce points. It is that simple.

NFC Title Game: 49ers -2.5 over Giants, 22-19

-Here, we have a clash not of styles like the first game, but of momentum.

The Giants are all about momentum. That are running on some kind of awesome ride the last month or so. They are hitting on all cylinders, and the wave is carrying them so hard and fast many are penciling them in for a win here already. Even their play style is in waves. Deep passes, floods of pass rush. It is easy to get caught up.

The 49ers don’t really know the meaning of momentum. Sure, they had a nice run of wins this season, totally unexpectedly too. But each win was a grind it out, to the last minute, field goal laden, punching fest. They got 5 turnovers last week and barely won. Previous to the bye week, they struggled to beat a bad Rams team. This team has little sense of momentum at all.

So, why pick the 49ers? Well, here’s the thing. The Giants are built to beat the passing teams, and showed it by beating Green Bay last week. This is a totally different monster. The 49ers will run it at the Giants, and chew the clock. They will force the LBs to cover Vernon Davis (who will not drop balls like Jermichael Finley, theoretically), and I actually like Crabtree to have a comeback game after his stink job last week.

I had one major question about the Niners and they answered it last week. It had nothing to do with Alex Smith ironically. I wondered if their talented but very young offensive line could block the blitzing Saints defense. They did an AWESOME job doing just that. While the Giants style is different, rushing only 4-5 most times, I think the lesson learned still applies. They should be able to stop the JPP/Osi/Tuck combination, and through running the ball, 2 TE/2 RB sets, and ball control offense will grind out a win here.

Eli has been great, don’t get me wrong. But the ride has to stop somewhere. Nicks will stop ripping off long TDs at some point (hello Charles Rodgers), and Bradshaw won’t get anywhere against this defense. I am betting on the balanced SF team to stop the dynamic Giants team. Setting up, yes, Alex Smith in the Super Bowl.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-62

By Spread: 111-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 388-195
By Spread: 320-270

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 19 Predictions: The Divisional Round

Divisional Round: Finally, we get to see the big boys play. We have some good matchups this weekend too. Everyone wants to see the Saints play outdoors. The Giants look like the correct kind of team to challenge the Packers. Texans-Ravens is an interesting matchup because of some strong similarities in team make up. Oh yeah, and a guy named Tebow is going to play in Foxboro.

Let’s get rolling then, shall we?

Saints -4 over 49ers, 34-17

-This one is simple. The 49ers just can’t score with the Saints. Okay, need more? Well, Alex Smith is playing in this game. Gore looks broken down. The 49ers have never been here before, and the playoff experience of the Saints will make a difference. I also think the Saints’ inconsistent but potentially thrilling pass rush will flourish in this game versus a young offensive line that allowed way too many sacks this season (percentage of almost 9, which is terrible). Brees is lighting it up right now, but also will remember the lesson of going to the West Coast and losing to an inferior team last year. It won’t happen again. Prediction: Sproles spends a lot of time on the edge and while he will not be “running the ball” he will rack up combo yards in this game. Aldon Smith will get minimized and the Saints will be productive as ever.

Pats -13.5 over Broncos, 41-23

-I was sad to see this line wasn’t lower. Denver is getting no respect here…but they don’t really deserve any so I guess it is fair. The problem here is that the Patriots are just much better. They needed the rest but despite getting it won’t be dull or rusty. The Patriot defense, which was basically running in place all year due to the trio of inexperience, injuries, and lack of talent, will have cured 1 and possibly 2 of those issues. The offense will be ready to go as usual. Brady at home isn’t an absolute anymore but it is still pretty good if all else is equal. And truth be told, it isn’t equal anyways.

We have a case study for this game because the Pats won a month ago, in Denver, by a lot. Now, I know that that game turned on the second quarter turnovers and turnovers are inherently unpredictable, but still the Patriots dominated them so well I am confident it will happen again. The Broncos just cannot score 35 points, and they will need to score around that many to win. They allowed 23 points to a banged up Pittsburgh offensive team on the road. They are about to get NE at home firing on all cylinders. 13.5 is not enough to cover the onslaught coming. No Decker, Dawkins, so many other hurt players, and Willis in whatever shape he is in. Sorry Broncos, your season ends here. And yes, I barely discussed Tebow in these two paragraphs. But the truth is, he isn’t going to matter much here anyways.

Giants +8.5 over Packers, 31-27

-The Giants are going to give the Packers a run for their money. The case for the Giants to be able to win this game is reasonable and has many areas. They are hot while the Packers haven’t been at completely full strength for almost a month (including Jennings/Starks being at full health but also the bye and the mini bye that was Detroit when many players like Rodgers sat). The Giants defensive line is extremely strong and can get after the Green Bay offensive line that is a bit beaten up. The Giants, unlike the Saints (dome) and 49ers (good weather) can acclimate well to the climate in GB.  It won’t be as much of a factor. The Giants can throw the ball deep very well and the Packers let up big pass plays frequently. The Packers are good, and talent wise are much better than the Giants. However, that talent isn’t really in the right places to beat this Giants team right now. I don’t like all that time off, the little injuries, and the stress that the extended season put on them (they made a full Super Bowl run, from the Wild Card position last year, and had to burn so much energy keeping the perfect streak going it wore on them). It is really hard to repeat. The Packers will lose sometime. I would take the points here because I can totally see it being this week.

I just picked against Aaron Rodgers and with Eli Manning. To quote a great writer, I will now light myself on fire.

Ravens -8.5 over Texans, 27-13

-TJ Yates is inexperienced, and will come to pieces in Baltimore. It is just as simple as that. Flacco isn’t great but a 12 of 19 for 205 yards and 1 TD game is all they need. Rice should have a productive day and I think a defensive score for the Ravens will be in order. This will probably be a game in which it will somewhat painful to pay full attention. I won’t be surprised to see a few injuries here either, though I don’t wish that on anyone. Baltimore hasn’t had the greatest record at home, but will get up for this game. Arian Foster won’t be enough to get this done, and the Ravens move on.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 140-61

By Spread: 109-90

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 385-194
By Spread: 318-268

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend!

Fun stats from this year before I make my picks: 

Packers were 15-1 this year, despite allowing more yards than they gained. Same for NE at 13-3.

NE had the #1 and #3 TEs. This from the team that was bombing it to Randy Moss as recently as two years ago. Intriguing.

With Matt Flynn’s 6 TD game the Packers actually beat Tom Brady’s 50 TD mark from 2007….with the combined stats from all throwers.

The Steelers somehow still had the number 1 defense. I don’t like them, but respect. They are just dodging father time. Maybe next year it will catch up.

Wild Card round selections:

Bengals +3 over Texans, 21-17

-I could just say Jake Delhomme or Gary Kubiak and be done with it. But, there are other reasons. The Bengals are a youthful, energized team while the Texans just look happy to have made it. They have lost three in a row. They have many injury concerns. The Texans do have a strong running game and we just saw Ray Rice hit the Bengals hard. But, the Texans are out of sync, Andre Johnson is not  nearly right, and I trust Dalton over Delhomme or Yates. I think AJ Green breaks a big one and the Bengals win a nice little contest. They played a few weeks ago and the Texans scored in the last seconds to win it. I think it bounces the other way this time, the Bengals will have learned from that. And no, this has nothing to do with me wanting the Bengals going to NE in round two over the Steelers…

Denver +9.5 over Steelers, 15-13

-…Because the Steelers won’t advance anyways. I think Denver wins this game and the Steelers won’t be an option. The Steelers are beaten up with Clark out, Ben having his high ankle sprain recently tweaked, Mendenhall gone (though I don’t think that is a big deal), and the offensive line perpetually beaten up. I think Denver can play with them tight and close, with better special teams and a better running game. I think Denver has over 40 total carries, and this contains the pace of the game to limit scoring in general. Now let’s be clear: I don’t believe in Tebow. He isn’t good. But even he isn’t as bad as last week vs. KC or the 4 INT monstrosity of a game we saw in Buffalo. This is a moment where he can rise and do the impossible. And in a contest between Tebow needing to be mediocre and Big Ben needing to be great…well, I am going with Tebow. Because Ben has continually shown me he can be terrible in big playoff games. For all those who laud his Super Bowl wins, go back and look at the game logs. The Steelers defense won those games. And it could propel them to a win here as well. But I think the Broncos squeak one out, and Ben throws a bad pick late to help that happen. A late Prater kick to win? Sounds about right with how this season has gone. 9.5 is just too much anyways, especially at home. The Steelers tried to beat the Browns and couldn’t do so convincingly. Denver is at least as good as Cleveland. Take the points.

Saints -11 over Lions, 45-31

-This one is pretty easy because we have the case study from a month ago. The Saints could have scored 60 in that game. The Lions can score, but they just cannot stop anyone. The Packers had half their team going on half motivation and STILL lit them up. So, the Saints do the same, at home in their dome. Calvin Johnson though? Another 200 yard day could be coming. The Saints though will not let up this time, and may approach 50 points before it is over. Stafford has played well, but I trust Brees far more.

Giants -3 over Falcons, 28-23

-So, the Falcons are hot and no one trusts the Giants this late in the season. But, let me make my case for the Giants. They still have an awesome defensive line and that solves so many things this time of year. I trust Eli more than Matty Ice at this point in their careers, especially in Giants Stadium. The Falcons simply aren’t as good outside the dome, and the high flying nature of the passing offense won’t be as effective in those winds. I have seen Eli win games completing 9 passes this year. The Falcons won’t be able to do that. The Giants have been here before and won or been competitive. The Falcons got embarrassed in the playoffs last year and the team if anything got worse. I trust Coughlin over Mike Smith due to experience, and this game is a win for the Giants.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 137-60

By Spread: 106-89

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 382-193
By Spread: 315-267

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