NFL 2011 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend!

Fun stats from this year before I make my picks: 

Packers were 15-1 this year, despite allowing more yards than they gained. Same for NE at 13-3.

NE had the #1 and #3 TEs. This from the team that was bombing it to Randy Moss as recently as two years ago. Intriguing.

With Matt Flynn’s 6 TD game the Packers actually beat Tom Brady’s 50 TD mark from 2007….with the combined stats from all throwers.

The Steelers somehow still had the number 1 defense. I don’t like them, but respect. They are just dodging father time. Maybe next year it will catch up.

Wild Card round selections:

Bengals +3 over Texans, 21-17

-I could just say Jake Delhomme or Gary Kubiak and be done with it. But, there are other reasons. The Bengals are a youthful, energized team while the Texans just look happy to have made it. They have lost three in a row. They have many injury concerns. The Texans do have a strong running game and we just saw Ray Rice hit the Bengals hard. But, the Texans are out of sync, Andre Johnson is not  nearly right, and I trust Dalton over Delhomme or Yates. I think AJ Green breaks a big one and the Bengals win a nice little contest. They played a few weeks ago and the Texans scored in the last seconds to win it. I think it bounces the other way this time, the Bengals will have learned from that. And no, this has nothing to do with me wanting the Bengals going to NE in round two over the Steelers…

Denver +9.5 over Steelers, 15-13

-…Because the Steelers won’t advance anyways. I think Denver wins this game and the Steelers won’t be an option. The Steelers are beaten up with Clark out, Ben having his high ankle sprain recently tweaked, Mendenhall gone (though I don’t think that is a big deal), and the offensive line perpetually beaten up. I think Denver can play with them tight and close, with better special teams and a better running game. I think Denver has over 40 total carries, and this contains the pace of the game to limit scoring in general. Now let’s be clear: I don’t believe in Tebow. He isn’t good. But even he isn’t as bad as last week vs. KC or the 4 INT monstrosity of a game we saw in Buffalo. This is a moment where he can rise and do the impossible. And in a contest between Tebow needing to be mediocre and Big Ben needing to be great…well, I am going with Tebow. Because Ben has continually shown me he can be terrible in big playoff games. For all those who laud his Super Bowl wins, go back and look at the game logs. The Steelers defense won those games. And it could propel them to a win here as well. But I think the Broncos squeak one out, and Ben throws a bad pick late to help that happen. A late Prater kick to win? Sounds about right with how this season has gone. 9.5 is just too much anyways, especially at home. The Steelers tried to beat the Browns and couldn’t do so convincingly. Denver is at least as good as Cleveland. Take the points.

Saints -11 over Lions, 45-31

-This one is pretty easy because we have the case study from a month ago. The Saints could have scored 60 in that game. The Lions can score, but they just cannot stop anyone. The Packers had half their team going on half motivation and STILL lit them up. So, the Saints do the same, at home in their dome. Calvin Johnson though? Another 200 yard day could be coming. The Saints though will not let up this time, and may approach 50 points before it is over. Stafford has played well, but I trust Brees far more.

Giants -3 over Falcons, 28-23

-So, the Falcons are hot and no one trusts the Giants this late in the season. But, let me make my case for the Giants. They still have an awesome defensive line and that solves so many things this time of year. I trust Eli more than Matty Ice at this point in their careers, especially in Giants Stadium. The Falcons simply aren’t as good outside the dome, and the high flying nature of the passing offense won’t be as effective in those winds. I have seen Eli win games completing 9 passes this year. The Falcons won’t be able to do that. The Giants have been here before and won or been competitive. The Falcons got embarrassed in the playoffs last year and the team if anything got worse. I trust Coughlin over Mike Smith due to experience, and this game is a win for the Giants.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 137-60

By Spread: 106-89

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 382-193
By Spread: 315-267

BLISS