Favorite Young PG

+3. Remember that number. It will be important later. Also remember 23-10-9.

Let’s talk about players A, B, C, and D first though. All are point guards. 

During Player A and C’s first two seasons, they averaged 16/21 points per game, and 18/22 respectively. They were playmakers in other senses, with just under and over 7 assists respectively in those seasons. They took a franchise in a non glamour city and made them relevant. They were cool, flashy, SMOOTH, and were the hope of the league. And, they were injury prone, undeniably. Player A was better from the field and Player C better from 3, but otherwise these two guys profile similarly. They are HIGHLIGHT players, dynamic in personality, and the name recognition is strong and lasting.

During Player B and D’s first two seasons, the point averages were more like 12/15 and 10/13. However, the assists were higher. Player B hit 7.5 and almost 10, and D just under and over 8. Both players showed a ridiculous tendency to turn the ball over…but also thieve it. These players are more complicated by the percentage splits, shooting in the late 30’s, barely forcing a 3 in per game. But both players are LEADERS on their teams. They don’t lead the team in scoring, but have the biggest presence. And man, sometimes it gets turned over, but their passes look GOOD. Players A and C put on the SHOW. Players B and D RUN the show.

It seems like all 4 will be successful, but different, players. Their careers should be exciting to watch. But as much as I have admiration for them, player D consistently jumps out as my favorite. He is my hope for Best Point Guard of the future. Player D is Ricky Rubio. Player C is Kyrie Irving.

I love Kyrie, I do. I pretty much scheduled a 4 day trip to Brooklyn to see the Cavs come play there. And he is a silky smooth scorer, no doubt about it. But this injury thing is starting to worry me. Sure, Rubio had his too, but it was a single freak occurrence in a 5 year professional career bereft of them. Kyrie missed time in college and his first two years with a litany of small ones, weird ones, and oddly broken bones. This is one reason I am buying more Rubio stock than Kyrie stock.

The other is Players A and B. Player A, so closely profiled to Kyrie, was Penny Hardaway in 93-95. He had such a similar beginning and fizzled out. Player B, who is so close to Rubio’s beginning? Jason Kidd, 94-96.

These comparisons are of course somewhat arbitrary and unfair. But I just see it all lined up too well. I see Rubio’s basketball IQ allowing him to work with some better teammates to get to the Finals 3-6 years from now. I can also see him slowly develop a better jump shot, and a set 3. He can totally follow that Jason Kidd path of being the 3^rd or 4^th best player on a contender later in his career as well. And funny enough, I can totally see it being on another team.

Like Penny, I think Kyrie will have too much on him, especially considering he is already injury prone. And I hope I am wrong, I hope he more mirrors Iverson (for longevity and sustained excellence, not attitude). That will be amazing to watch. But I don’t think I’m wrong. Maybe if Lebron comes to Cleveland and does the Wade thing all over again (lets the slashing guard take 25% less hits and get 25% more open shots) it will really push Kyrie in a better position, but I still see a player who will average 60 games a year instead of 80. And more importantly I think his prime is shorter than Rubio’s.

Rubio is already showing better than Jason’s curve in shooting. He is also going to the line more, earlier in his career and shooting close to 80% there. His turnovers are also a bit smaller at this point. His steals numbers are pretty on average with Kidd’s for steals, but they have spiked more lately. And that’s the funny thing. Rubio’s season averages this year are going to look pretty similar or actually worse than last year’s. It is a nice illusion (one I hope will get his draft ADP to drop next year for fantasy purposes). See, during the few weeks he was getting used to his new knee, he had quite a few 0-3, 4 assist kind of nights. But since February 1^st, Rubio has absolutely dominated, putting up a 13.5 / 5.4 / 8.6 line with 2.7 steals. Not only is this sustainable, he can better it easily.  

That brings me to last night. I was looking at two Rubio related numbers. The first was +3. That is what the Wolves got in terms of points versus Memphis. A bad team minus its All Star in Kevin Love is only getting 3 points versus one of the best teams in the West, a team which has a top defense and will probably host the first round of the playoffs. I don’t know if that is respect, the sharps and bookmakers actually following how competitive the Wolves currently are, or Memphis’s run of back to backs, but it is still a tiny line.

After all, the Wolves this month lost to the Lakers by 3 and CHI by 7. They beat OKC by 8, DET by 13, PHO by 31, SA by 24, and WAS by 5. Without Love, frequently without Kirilenko and Pekovic, Rubio is making the Boston Steamer and Dante Cunningham semi efficient scorers right now. Bill Simmons should get credit for this point: “Rubio is making Derrick Williams look like a professional basketball player”. Yup, that’s actually all I really needed to write.

The second numbers I was looking at were 23-10-9. That is what Ricky threw up in said game versus tough Memphis last night. They lost, but he was brilliant. And he was 10 of 12 from the line. Yeah, I’m hoping on this train. And guess what? David Kahn may have been right in saving the 5 year deal for Rubio and not giving it to Love.

And one final thing? Rubio reminds me a lot of Rondo too. Rondo is better, has been better. But now I am convinced Rubio will be the superior player long term. It is all there in the numbers. And, in the way he holds himself. This guys lives and breathes high IQ and exciting basketball. Here’s hoping for 15 years of it.

And I will allow myself one excessive Rubio call.

Rubio! Rubio! Ru-be-OOOOOOH!