NFL 2015 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Pats -5.5 over Chiefs

-Last week I took 3 underdogs, and hit 3 of 4 overall. The theme is a bit flipped this week. Wild Card rounds are growing odd because so many of the 5-6 teams are better than the lowers, especially the 4s. We saw both get killed this past weekend. This time however, the better teams are fresh and hosting at home. It is going to be hard to convince me to stray away from those teams. I just don’t bet against the Pats in the playoffs often. Sometimes if the point spread increases to unmanageable levels, but 5.5 points isn’t excessive. It comes down to Brady and Belichick, at home, laying less than a touchdown, versus Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Despite how beat up New England is (which at this point is overstated), I am sticking with Brady/Belichick.

Cards -7.5 over Packers

-I really like what the Packers did last week, and appreciate the .5 edge on the line. But I picked the Cardinals to go to the Super Bowl, the matchup between this team has been aptly showcased this season, and the Cardinals are just by far the more complete team. Kirk Cousins was inexperienced. Carson Palmer is anything but. I love the defensive playmakers the Cardinals have, and the overall depth and talent is much larger for Arizona. They remain my NFC Super Bowl pick.

Panthers -3 over Seahawks

-Seattle is probably a better team, let’s put that out there first. They can pass better, are tougher on defense (Carolina is no slouch), and I like their special teams and depth much better. But it is so difficult to play a game in Minnesota like they did, and then have to travel again, to the East Coast far away from their home. The record of teams playing tough physical playoff games and then turning around and doing it again and winning is pretty much nil. The Panthers are rested, ready, and have focused on this matchup for two weeks. I really think this results in a win for them, but it is a low confidence bet that I won’t be investing much in.

Steelers +9 over Broncos, DEN SU

-That is just so many points! Beat up Big Ben, Antonio Brown sitting out aside, 9 points is a lot for a playoff game. And since as a rule I don’t trust Peyton in playoff games, I’m taking those points. The Steelers will still be able to move the ball, and even though the Denver moneyline is probably the simplest bet here, I’m sensing a 20-16 game where those points will be vital.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 136-87

By Spread: 117-104

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 931-511
By Spread: 762-666