NFL 2016 Week 18 Predictions

Week 18 Predictions:

Hello friends. It has been an up and down season for me. I honestly considered not continuing this prediction column each week because of how busy my life has become, especially as I am back in school pursuing my doctoral degree. However, I have found this simple little space for predictions allows me to flex my writing muscles a little and lets me get out the snark somewhere other than my academic work. That’s probably better for all involved. I wish my results were more steady (I’ll take the last 60% of the season but not so much the first 40%), but it has been and helps center my football thoughts and determinations before they are applied elsewhere.

Another major reason I continued the column is that one of my major life goals is to find a way to finish a post season having picked it perfectly. 11 games up, 11 down, that’s the goal. Without the regular season to get me there, I wouldn’t feel right doing just the playoffs. So, here I am, staring at my goals. 11 games left in this season! Standing in my way of course, is this horrid set of round 1 matchups. I stared at a lot of these for far too long. Let’s go.

Texans -3.5 over Raiders, 20-10

-Okay, first, I have loved the Raiders all year. Seriously, go look, I’ll wait. I also really like Connor Cook. Really, I loved him in college in the past few years and had some financial confidence in him pushing MSU to some solid finishes and surprising wins. But I just can’t pick a rookie making his first ever start on the road in the playoffs versus a competent defense. Even with Brock, the Texans are fundamentally sound, will pound the hell out of the Raiders defense, and go after Cook. Texans, unfortunately, advance to the next round behind a big game from Lamar Miller, but you should take the under.

Seahawks -8 over Lions, 24-13

-On one hand, the Seahawks have been 30^th against the pass since Earl Thomas got hurt. That’s with folks like Colin K involved. This terrifies me, and this team won’t be getting to another NFC title game. However, I think it is enough for this week. Stafford hasn’t been the same since finger injuries occurred (go figure!). Seattle is still 7-1 at home, and has vets who have been here before. A running back named Zenner is intimately involved for Detroit. Detroit had to confirm a coach who is about to coach a playoff game who has a winning record over three years and a Super Bowl appearance with his last team will be back next year. Russell Wilson isn’t late 2015 Russell Wilson but he isn’t early 2016 Russell Wilson either. Seattle gets it done by 10, and go get plastered by Atlanta next week.

Dolphins +10 over Steelers, 20-23

Okay, first, not all 4 home teams can win. So, we can start there. Does this mean the Dolphins are the upset? I don’t know but someone has to do it. I think they have enough to keep it close. Did you know Pittsburgh ranks 10^th in offense (that’s way too low) and 10^th in defense (way too high)? Weird team, doesn’t match the optics or expectations. Fins also are a weird team to figure out. I think they can hit some deep ones here, know they need Ajayi to go off again and will feed him, and keep it close enough. Ben probably wins, but I won’t have investment in this game.

Packers -4.5 over Giants, 30-20

-The Giants took a day this week and went to party in South Beach. I mean, they didn’t start there, and aren’t playing the Fins later this week or something. New York to Miami to New York to Green Bay on a playoff week. I’m actually kind of disgusted. It’s like this a job for them, and they may not care as much as we irrationally do as fans! Justin Bieber was involved!

The Giants do have the exact right kind of defense to stop the Packers (red zone and 3^rd down efficiency). However, it’s Aaron Rodgers and he is back to just skinning people alive 9 seconds into a play that should have been over. If the Giants beat the Packers in Green Bay, I’ll officially be afraid of them. Until then, show it to me Eli. Beckham is going off here though for the record, even though I feel strongly about the Packers winning.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 7-9

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 143-92

By Spread: 121-112

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1087-608
By Spread: 895-785