2017 NFL Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

Let’s review last year, shall we? I have added the Super Bowl, which I got correct, into my year end stats.

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1097-609
By Spread: 903-788

Well, that could have been worse. I increased both lifetime marks in terms of distance from .500, but my win percentage didn’t really get any better. I will try to do better this year, and my problem tends to be these early weeks. I think I think I know more than anyone thinks they should know this year, and overthink. So, I am going to try to go simpler until more data reveals itself.

Pats -8.6 over Chiefs, 34-17

-Pats cover at home celebrating a title, both teams having suffered a major injury to an offensive player and the Chiefs still starting Alex Smith at quarterback for some reason. Also, the Chiefs have never won at Gillette, have lost 5 of 7 against NE, and Dion Lewis is still 17-0 as a Patriot with an average per game victory margin in those 17 wins of +17. Good enough for me.

Bills -9 over Jets, 17-6

-The night is dark and full of terrors. Some of them are named Peterman, Hackenberg, and McCown. McCoy gets like 35 touches and this is painful to watch on the 7^th screen at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Falcons -7 over Bears, 27-17

-What is this, the “oh, Falcons got the hangover lower the line” Vegas adjustment? Hit the 7 before it tips to .5.

Bengals -3 over Ravens, 20-16

-Home field plus unsure about the health of Flacco.

Steelers -9 over Browns, 24-10

-You are doing this right Browns, just one more year.

Cards -2 over Lions, 30-27

-I somehow have Stafford and Palmer going in multiple leagues, and also the Cards defense. No good. Cards are a more complete team, and the RB comparison is way out of whack. Also, we are starting the year off with a 2 Vegas? Way to pick a solid number and stay with it.

Texans -5.5 over Jags, 20-10

-….And then they give me 5.5. Higher Vegas, it should have been higher. Blake Bortles is intimately involved.

Raiders +2.5 over Titans, 27-24

-A lot of respect given to the Titans here. This should be an awesome game: It is the preview of my AFC Semifinals. Titans are still a growing team however and Oakland should do well throwing the ball.

Ethnic Slurs +1 over Eagles, 26-24

-No idea, taking the home team with the more established quarterback. Even if he did sign a 1 year deal because God told him to.

Rams -3.5 over Colts, 17-12

-Okay, unpopular opinion alert: The Colts should rest Luck as long as it takes. This team may not be good. Gore might be done. They are thin all over the place, and light. They have young guys not ready yet and old guys about to end who need to come off the cap. Maybe a mini reset is needed. Second unpopular opinion alert: I like Jared Goff still, and think the Rams are going to be sneaky, like 2015 Raiders, good before a leap the next year. The door still over there? Great, I’ll be over there.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-23

-Can you believe the Fail Mary was 5 years ago? Or that the Seahawks somehow got another elite defense front 7 guy for little conveyance? Or that Richard Sherman is somehow still on this team? Or that Aaron Rodgers will Aaron Rodgers this game for them? Yeah, that last one I am actually easily on board with.

Panthers -5.5 over 49ers, 27-14

-It’s kind of like the Browns. One more year, doing it the right way Niners. Might need to try to develop a young QB though. Newton might not even need to push himself here, though it’ll be exciting to see Christian M and how he is used.

Giants +4 over Cowboys, 23-20

-Giants spent the offseason quickly adding defensive and offensive weapons, and the Cowboys spent it getting arrested, suspended, and not looking hard enough at natural regression for Zeke and especially Dak. Taking the points here.

Buccaneers & Fins – Best wishes to the residents of Florida and those affected by the current storm systems.

Saints +3.5 over Vikings, 30-23

-Saints love MNF, Saints love in door facilities, Saints had Brees spending the offseason cooking up new ways to get randos 1000 yards so he’ll get to 5K again. I also still don’t trust Sam Bradford.

Chargers +3.5 over Broncos, 24-16

-You need a quarterback, and I’m still not sure Pro Bowler Trevor Siemien is the answer. Yeah, that happened, look it up. I love the Chargers a little bit, they got the QB in Elway mode, and a juiced-up pass rush.