NBA 2012 Playoffs: Semifinals

2012 NBA Playoffs

So I was unable to get round two picks in before the round started because of the staggering of game 1s. However, the results of the Celtics-Sixers and HEAT-Pacers game ones honestly didn’t change my picks there.

Eastern Conference Semifinals:

HEAT defeat Pacers, 4-2

-I liked certain matchups for the Pacers in this series but thought the Wade-Lebron factor would mean the best player in the series is always playing for the HEAT and this would cause them to win. But the fact that Indiana played hard in game 1 and Bosh got hurt means I can see this going 7. The fact that the Pacers hung in despite Granger going 1-10 is even more encouraging. But 6 games still seems like the right answer.

Celtics defeat Sixers, 4-1

-Only the fact that game 4 is in Philadelphia makes me give this series 5 games. Boston will take care of business, which could be the name of this series. Pierce will get his rest because they will be waiting for HEAT-Pacers to finish up. Put it this way: Philly played its rear ends off in Game 1, Celtics played badly, and the Celtics still won. Another dominant Rondo game is coming, and a better Pierce-Allen shooting game is coming. That will get them two more wins easily. Series over in 5.

Western Conference Semifinals:

Spurs defeat Clippers, 4-1

-Again, only the fact that the Spurs will have to win two in LA makes me give a fifth game prediction for this series. The Spurs may be a bit rusty because of the extended time off, but they will click into place just fine. The Clippers are hurt and tired. Chris Paul is meeting one of the other quickest PGs on the planet. Manu is going to be defended by Nick Young. Tim Duncan draws DeAndre Jordan and Kenyon Martin. There are just egregious mismatches across the board. But the real story is Pop versus Vinny. Wait, maybe I should make this a sweep…

Thunder defeat Lakers, 4-1

-The Lakers are good enough to beat the Thunder. They just won’t get close this year. First, the Lakers’ biggest strength is somewhat nullified by the defensive tandem of Iblaka and Perkins. Perkins knows how to defend Gasol/Bynum. While Metta and Kobe will do a decent job on Durant, I have no idea how the Lakers, who couldn’t guard Andre Miller, will slow down Westbrook. But honestly, the rest factor, and revenge factor for James Harden, will make this look easy for OKC in this particular year. An OKC win will be billed as a changing of the guard. However, it honestly isn’t. The Lakers just don’t have enough in the tank to do this right now.

Finals pick:

Obviously, my Thunder over Bulls prediction isn’t going to work. I will stay with the Thunder, but now over the Celtics. I know, the homer pick accusations come now. But I actually think it makes sense. The HEAT have a better chance of being upset by the Pacers than the Celtics do by the Sixers. The HEAT may have a serious Bosh problem. The Celtics are proving time and again they may be the most clutch last two minute team in the NBA. Rondo is dominating right now; he is clearing the field in assists per game in the playoffs. His bad games are triple doubles. And I am reminded of the blowout win late in the season over the HEAT by the C’s. Something just seems right about that matchup. Whether it is the Celtics or HEAT, it actually doesn’t matter to me: the Thunder probably win the title and the winner is coming from the Western Conference guaranteed.

BLISS

NBA 2012 Playoffs: Quarterfinals

2012 NBA Playoffs

Ah, NBA playoff basketball. My favorite time of the year. A time where the “old guys” like Kobe, Dirk, Pierce, and Duncan turn it on and show the kids who is boss. Where at least one young guy like Durant or Rose raises their game a level and suggests a future where they dominate.

Where Lebron crashes down in fear of the moment. Okay, had to get that in there.

Here are the picks:

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals:

Bulls defeat 76ers, 4-1

-I will give Doug Collins 1 game, but this team isn’t right and they don’t match up well. It may not matter how dominant Rose is or isn’t.

HEAT defeat Knicks, 4-3

-You heard me. I think the Knicks give the HEAT a legit run. But the HEAT have too much. It isn’t that the Knicks are good per se (I think they would have lost 4-1 to the Bulls), but they match up well with the HEAT. Lebron-Melo is a potential cancel, Iman Shumpert can work wonders on Wade, and 80% Amare is better than Bosh. But in the end, no way Wade doesn’t push it over the top.

Pacers defeat Magic, 4-0

-I almost gave the Magic 1 win because the Pacers are inexperienced in the playoffs, but I just don’t see it. Maybe if Ryan Anderson cans 5 3’s in a half or something, but I think by game 3 the Magic will be trying to figure out if they can forfeit the remaining games.

Celtics defeat Hawks 4-2

-The fact that game six will be in Boston and game five in Atlanta made me say this will go 6 instead of 5. The Hawks have put together a respectable season, playing without Horford in a tough division. But the Celtics are clicking, have more talent, and have more experience. Rondo is the biggest mismatch. Good luck Teague.

Western Conference Quarterfinals:

Spurs defeat Jazz, 4-1

-I give the Jazz one game based on a big game from Big Al and Millsap where they shoot 70% and get 55 points together or something. Ty Corvin has done a great job but is about to be schooled.

Thunder defeat Mavs, 4-3

-I have to think the Mavs fight tooth and nail in this series. They got the Thunder last year and while the Mavs got worse the Thunder may not have Harden. But the Thunder get game seven at home and they have Durant.

Lakers defeat Nuggets, 4-1

-I like Denver. I really do. But not this year. And not in this series. Something doesn’t feel right. Faried is a nice player. But versus Pau and Bynum? Lakers tighten up and take care of business.

Grizzlies defeat Clippers 4-2

-Feels like most of the Hornets playoffs from the last 5 years. They have the best player in Paul, and like the 3^rd best player in the series (David West/Blake Griffin), but players 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 are on the other team. Too much from the Grizzlies with Gay really lighting the Clips up. Paul singlehandedly pushes them to 2 wins.

Overall I still like the Thunder over the Bulls, but this is wide open. Would I be surprised if it were Lakers-Celtics? Not at all. And I think a Lebron-Kobe Finals, just one, would be legendary.

BLISS

2012 MLB Board Bets: Bliss vs. Orsi Round 3

Bliss: So we all know how last year went (decisive victory by me). So I brought the younger Cuz along for another round on the board bet bull. Brought to you by Bliss and Orsi, here we go:


Put It On the Board!


Team Predictions:
AL East
Bliss: Tampa Bay Rays - Love the 4 starters, and Longoria bounces back.
Orsi: New York Yankees - As much as it pains me to say this...

AL West
Bliss: Texas Rangers - Too much total talent. Yu Darvish will only dominate until people figure him out though.
Orsi: Los Angeles Angels - Rangers have health/alcohol issues and the Angels just stole their best pitcher and signed some guy named Albert.

AL Central
Bliss: Detroit Tigers - Easiest divisional pick
Orsi: Detroit Tigers as well

AL Wild Cards (wait, baseball did something innovative?)
Bliss: Angels (Pujols plus a decent team already can’t miss the playoffs, can it?), and Yankees (yes, I hate the Red Sox set up that much)
Orsi: Rangers (If they’re healthy, they score. A LOT.) and Red Sox (I’m a homer, okay)

NL East
Bliss: Phillies - Hate this pick, but pitching, pitching, pitching. Not buying the Marlins.
Orsi: Marlins - RIDE THAT HYPE

NL Central
Bliss: Cincinnati Reds - Love the lineup and Latos and Cueto are sneaky good.
Orsi: St. Louis Cardinals - Bullpen looks good for once and they can still hit even without Pujols.

NL West
Bliss: San Francisco Giants - Love this pitching. More on that later. Plus, KUNG FU PANDA!
Orsi: Arizona Diamondbacks - So much young talent all over the field. This might be the year it all comes together.

NL Wild Cards (wait, they did something equally in both leagues?)
Bliss: Braves and Rockies.
Orsi: Nationals and Giants.

ALCS
Bliss: Rays over Tigers (4 pitchers versus 1)
Orsi: Angels over Tigers (Verlander can only do so much. Angels have CJ/Haren/Weaver)

NLCS
Bliss: Giants over Phillies (youth versus age)
Orsi: Giants over Cardinals (Pitching, pitching, pitching)

World Series
Bliss: Rays over Giants (pitching is almost equal, but I really like the hitting of the Rays. They deserve one this decade.)
Orsi: Giants over Angels (A repeat of the 2002 World Series; not the same result)


End of Year Awards:
AL MVP
Bliss: Adrian Gonzalez - I know, I don’t have them making the playoffs. But I think he hits .335 with 45 and 130. The rest of the team is relatively awful.
Orsi: Albert Pujols - His new park should help him- think about that. He missed out on homers at Busch last season.

NL MVP
Bliss: Joey Votto - He hits the skin off the ball.
Orsi: Justin Upton - See above ^

AL Rookie of the Year
Bliss: Matt Moore - Absolutely sick stuff. He’ll clearly have the stage to make his point.
Orsi: Matt Moore - I hate agreeing for the sake of competition, but this kid is filthy good.

NL Rookie of the Year
Bliss: Devin Mesoraco - I read a lot of websites, and his name came up often. And it sounds cool. Seriously, that’s all I got.
Orsi: Trevor Bauer - Pending he makes the rotation early enough. Someone tell me any offense in the NL West we fear? None. That’s what I thought.

AL Cy Young
Bliss: Justin Verlander - Boring, I know. But he is so good.
Orsi: CC Sabathia - He dropped some weight, had his best season as a Yankee last year, and gets 20 wins for playing for the Yanks.

NL Cy Young
Bliss: Madison Bumgarner - He is so good, and clearly the best of the Giant’s pitching staff in my mind. And I like Lincecum and Cain. But Bumgarner is pitching sick right now, and I think he dominates this regular season. I mean, he can’t get worse run support than Cain, right?
Orsi: Cole Hamels - He is constantly in the shadows of Lee and Halladay, but he dominates with that changeup. Heck why not.

AL Manager of the Year
Bliss: Joe Maddon
Orsi: Jim Leyland

NL Manager of the Year
Bliss: Bruce Bouchy
Orsi: Davey Johnson (I have unhealthy love for this team)



Stats:
Texeira .270
Bliss: Under
Orsi: Over

Ichiro .285
Bliss: Over
Orsi: Under

Longoria .300
Bliss: Over
Orsi: Under

Brett Lawrie 25-25 Season
Bliss: Yes
Orsi: No

Adam Dunn 30 HRs
Bliss: Over
Orsi: Under

Pujols 110 RBI
Bliss: Under
Orsi: Over

Hanley Ramirez .295
Bliss: Over
Orsi: Under

Ryan Braun 30-30
Bliss: No
Orsi: Yes

David Wright games in a Mets uniform - 81
Bliss: Under
Orsi: Over






Bliss: Well there it is. I look forward to another year of domination Matt. Thanks for contributing again to this Board.


Enjoy Baseball everyone.


MIKE

NFL 2011 Week 21 Super Bowl

Super Bowl Preview

It had to be in Indy.

Peyton Manning’s little brother and his biggest rival are meeting in his city while he is on the verge of losing his job. Tom Brady is using Peyton Manning’s locker. That’s WEIRD. But perhaps meant to be.

Everybody loves stats this week, so let's dig some out:

Neither defense is good, but actually the Pats allowed 21.3 points per game in the regular season to opponents while the Giants allowed 25. Actually, the Giants are one of 4 teams all time to make the Super Bowl and only outscore opponents by less than 50 points total for the year. In the post season the Pats have allowed 15 points a game and the Giants 13, though the Falcons and Broncos games almost shouldn’t count. Both teams are great examples of teams that should be judged by PPG and not yards…because you know, points are what actually count.

Both QBs threw for over 4900 yards this year, one with 3 great WRs the other with 2 awesome TEs and 1 awesome WR.  So, that is kind of offsetting. One QB has a reputation for a 2 minute drill and 4th quarter coolness throughout his career. The other has the 4th quarter TD record for a single season and has played very well in the last few weeks, a prerequisite for winning in the playoffs. Both teams have a number of backs who run hard (Jacobs, BJGE), change the pace (Woodhead, Bradshaw), and bring youth into the game (Ridley, Ware). No star RBs, no top 10 team rank in rushing, but it works over time.

The Giants still have a “power run team” reputation, but actually they were bottom 10 in the league in rushing. The Pats have a reputation for being a dink and dunk offense but actually led the league in plays of 20 or more.

Both teams have secondaries that need help, the Pats a little more so than Giants. The Pats have a good LB group and okay DL. The Giants are the complete opposite with that awesome DL and a hurting LB crew. This is a matched game in a lot of ways. I like the Pats depth and special teams a little more but the Giants clearly have more play makers and true stars (about 8-5 in star power depending upon how you count them).

Brady and the Pats very rarely play two bad games in a row or two bad games versus the same team. This is encouraging for their chances as both scenarios are in place.

Yes, the Giants are on a great postseason run, but actually statistically the Pats are having a better postseason. See Footballoutsiders for stats, but they have a slight edge. Yes, the Giants are running hot...but the Pats haven't lost for two months. In that time I remember the Giants losing to the Redskins, so it bears mentioning as does the low quality of some of the Pats wins in that time.

The Giants are beloved by the public. They won this matchup in the regular season, in Foxboro. They defeated legit teams in SF and GB and a fraud team in ATL. The Pats conquered a legit team in BAL and a BAD DEN team. As much as the Pats got lucky vs. BAL, the Giants got lucky versus SF.

So why are the Pats favored? Maybe because they were more consistent all season? Because they fare so well in rematches? Because they had a bye in round 1 and are theoretically healthier? 3 SBs versus 1? I actually have no idea why the Pats are favored, can't begin to legitimize it. I agree this should be a pick or maybe even Giants by 1.5.

But, despite all this, I think the Pats -3 will win. Outright. Cover even. 33-27 sounds right. One team will lead by 10 points at SOME point, but in the end it will be close. Why? Well, see, I think they win because Bill Belichick is relaxed.

Some might break this game down by the star players, the health of Gronk, the pathetic nature of both secondaries but especially the Pats', the revenge factor, the defensive line or even luck. But, I cannot stop looking at a Bill Belichick that is smiling, laughing on media day, telling jokes. He normally would utter 5 word answers to questions. Normally, you'd have to pull him out of the film cave on SB Sunday, throw a new hoodie on him, and point him onto the field while handing him the headset and putting a red flag in his sock. This Bill is relaxed, telling stories, in a suit, in the city two days before his opponents flew in. He's chillin'. I think he knows something. Maybe he thinks the Giants are due for a stinker, like their Washington or Seattle games. Or he thinks the Pats can’t possibly play worse than last week, especially Brady.

However, I just think he found IT. Whatever IT is. Something to guarantee him three picks. Maybe he unearthed a trio of Ty Law clones to throw onto the Giants WRs. Maybe he found out that if you run deep routes past Deon Grant you score every time (wait, we all knew that). Whatever IT is, I think old Bill found it. And the Pats, as they often do, will win because of IT. Maybe Brady will throw some crazy array of screens and deep slants, or they are going to run 40 times and surprise us all. Neither would surprise me at all. And all else being even, IT being found or not, Brady in the playoffs is still someone I trust.

So the Pats win, and cover. We have tons of time to discuss Brady's legacy with 4 rings or Bill's case as Best Coach Ever. All because Bill is relaxed.

Or, you know, Bill could know he is lucky to be here and they are going to get killed so he's having fun because it doesn’t matter. Possibility, legit possibility.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 0-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-63

By Spread: 111-94

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 389-196
By Spread: 320-272

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

+Here are some of the fun props I have seen listed everywhere, if you are interested.

Wes Welker over 7 catches and 82 yards
-He went over these totals in the regular season game, the SB 4 years ago, and Gronk being limited may mean more targets anyways.

Brady over 320 yards
-If they win, it is likely because Brady played amazing. If they lose, Brady will throw to get back from behind.

Eli over .5 INTs
-Eli should have been picked 3 times last week. Rust+Volume equals at least one pick.

Deion Branch over 2.5 receptions
-Last time the Pats won a SB, he was the MVP. Not that that'll happen again, but 3 catches with a limited Gronk? Sure.

Manningham over 2.5 receptions
-Julian Edelman. Yeah, I have nothing else to say.

Victor Cruz over 5.5 receptions
-I have no idea how the Pats cover him.

Hakeem Nicks under 6 receptions and 85 yards
-Here, I think the Pats double team the Giant and limit his impact. Plus, he has an underpublicized shoulder issue. I think Patrick Chung leans on him.

Patriots under 5.5 penalties
-They are such a disciplined team and emphasize possession and limiting negative plays.

Giants will receive opening kickoff
-If the Pats win, they'll defer to get the ball after the half. If the Giants win, they'll take the ball to start fast. So either way...

Giants over 2.5 sacks
-I mean, 2 guaranteed from Tuck/Osi/JPP, at least one more from someone else. Easy pick.

Pats over 22.5 first downs
-See the Brady argument for yards.

Also, I have the over on 1 minute 34 seconds on the Nat'l Anthem, over on Jim Irsay being mentioned 1.5 times, over on Robert Kraft being shown 3.5 times, and over on 117 million viewers.

Good luck everyone.

MIKE

NFL 2011 Week 20 Predictions: Conference Championship Round

The Conference Championship Round!

Reasons to love it:

Truly the best teams of the season are playing, in terms of talent and continuity. They have earned their way here. Each team played a good game last week, no byes to come off of but everyone is relatively healthy. Normally there are good storylines and rivalries from this conference games, and that exists here.

Reasons to hate it:

We all suddenly have this realization football is almost done. We only have football one day a week (considering at one point a month ago you could get Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, this is a big shift). This is the end of the continuous football season (The Super Bowl is after a two week layover, with all the pomp and circumstance, in a neutral site. Not as bad as the BCS title game coming after 5 weeks off but similar.) Also, it is sad that some good and favorite teams are now out of it and will not be playing. During the Divisional Round there is a good chance you have one of the eight teams that you want to see win. By the final four, there is a good chance you don’t.

Overall of course, this is a great time for football. While conference championships don’t really mean much, it is nice to see back to back QUALITY games on Sunday.

AFC title game: Pats -7 over Ravens, 34-20

-A solid two touchdown victory is in the cards here. Before I get to any other analysis, I would like to dispel some notions.

The first is that Flacco is terrible in big games. The guy won twice versus Pittsburgh this year. He has won playoff games each year of his 4 year career, and this isn’t by accident. His defense is good, but he had more to do with those wins than Sanchez had to do with the Jets’ wins the last few years.

However, Flacco isn’t exactly good either and he can get very stiff and rarely gets past read #2. The Ravens are a tough team and unlike the Pats did beat a winning team this year. However, the QBs they played against included Dalton twice, Colt McCoy twice, The Colts terrible two, Skelton, Bradford, and Sanchez. They lost somehow to Jacksonville and Seattle.

While we are on the subject, the whole “Pats not being a winning team” thing is becoming extremely overblown. Technically you could say that. However, they did beat people when those teams WERE winning teams. The Broncos were an 8-5 team in the regular season when they played, and a 9-8 team in the postseason when they beat them the second time. The Pats also beat the Chargers, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets (twice) and all finished directly at .500. So, without the matchup with the Pats being taken into account those teams were over .500. Actually, the Jets were 8-6 against teams not named the Patriots. The Pats were not beating 4-12 teams every week. And ask anyone who played the Dolphins this year if they were pushovers.

When it comes to the title game this week, I actually think the result is simple: the Ravens can’t score 30 points. Nothing about their season in general or the Texans game in particular suggests that they can score nearly enough points to be competitive. I fully expect that the Pats will struggle more than they usually do against what is a good Ravens defense. But they will score 27 points minimum. That by itself should be enough to win this game.

The Patriots did lose two years ago, but these are not the same teams. The Ravens got older and a bit slower. Rice is wearing down a bit. The Pats did not have Welker due to injury, and hadn't even drafted Gronk and Hernandez yet. Those TEs change Baltimore's ability to blitz, cover the middle of the field, and move Brady around.

Ed Reed being hurt really hamstrings the Ravens’ ability to defend the deep passes and run creative blitzes, as does the fact that the Ravens run defense is so good…but the Pats don’t really run the ball. Suggs will be rushing against a good O-Line or forced to cover TEs that he simply cannot stay with. Thus his usefulness will be limited. Yes, the Ravens feel good about themselves, have won here in the past, and the weather won’t bother them. But honestly, it just won’t matter because NE can produce points. The Ravens struggle to produce points. It is that simple.

NFC Title Game: 49ers -2.5 over Giants, 22-19

-Here, we have a clash not of styles like the first game, but of momentum.

The Giants are all about momentum. That are running on some kind of awesome ride the last month or so. They are hitting on all cylinders, and the wave is carrying them so hard and fast many are penciling them in for a win here already. Even their play style is in waves. Deep passes, floods of pass rush. It is easy to get caught up.

The 49ers don’t really know the meaning of momentum. Sure, they had a nice run of wins this season, totally unexpectedly too. But each win was a grind it out, to the last minute, field goal laden, punching fest. They got 5 turnovers last week and barely won. Previous to the bye week, they struggled to beat a bad Rams team. This team has little sense of momentum at all.

So, why pick the 49ers? Well, here’s the thing. The Giants are built to beat the passing teams, and showed it by beating Green Bay last week. This is a totally different monster. The 49ers will run it at the Giants, and chew the clock. They will force the LBs to cover Vernon Davis (who will not drop balls like Jermichael Finley, theoretically), and I actually like Crabtree to have a comeback game after his stink job last week.

I had one major question about the Niners and they answered it last week. It had nothing to do with Alex Smith ironically. I wondered if their talented but very young offensive line could block the blitzing Saints defense. They did an AWESOME job doing just that. While the Giants style is different, rushing only 4-5 most times, I think the lesson learned still applies. They should be able to stop the JPP/Osi/Tuck combination, and through running the ball, 2 TE/2 RB sets, and ball control offense will grind out a win here.

Eli has been great, don’t get me wrong. But the ride has to stop somewhere. Nicks will stop ripping off long TDs at some point (hello Charles Rodgers), and Bradshaw won’t get anywhere against this defense. I am betting on the balanced SF team to stop the dynamic Giants team. Setting up, yes, Alex Smith in the Super Bowl.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-62

By Spread: 111-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 388-195
By Spread: 320-270

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 19 Predictions: The Divisional Round

Divisional Round: Finally, we get to see the big boys play. We have some good matchups this weekend too. Everyone wants to see the Saints play outdoors. The Giants look like the correct kind of team to challenge the Packers. Texans-Ravens is an interesting matchup because of some strong similarities in team make up. Oh yeah, and a guy named Tebow is going to play in Foxboro.

Let’s get rolling then, shall we?

Saints -4 over 49ers, 34-17

-This one is simple. The 49ers just can’t score with the Saints. Okay, need more? Well, Alex Smith is playing in this game. Gore looks broken down. The 49ers have never been here before, and the playoff experience of the Saints will make a difference. I also think the Saints’ inconsistent but potentially thrilling pass rush will flourish in this game versus a young offensive line that allowed way too many sacks this season (percentage of almost 9, which is terrible). Brees is lighting it up right now, but also will remember the lesson of going to the West Coast and losing to an inferior team last year. It won’t happen again. Prediction: Sproles spends a lot of time on the edge and while he will not be “running the ball” he will rack up combo yards in this game. Aldon Smith will get minimized and the Saints will be productive as ever.

Pats -13.5 over Broncos, 41-23

-I was sad to see this line wasn’t lower. Denver is getting no respect here…but they don’t really deserve any so I guess it is fair. The problem here is that the Patriots are just much better. They needed the rest but despite getting it won’t be dull or rusty. The Patriot defense, which was basically running in place all year due to the trio of inexperience, injuries, and lack of talent, will have cured 1 and possibly 2 of those issues. The offense will be ready to go as usual. Brady at home isn’t an absolute anymore but it is still pretty good if all else is equal. And truth be told, it isn’t equal anyways.

We have a case study for this game because the Pats won a month ago, in Denver, by a lot. Now, I know that that game turned on the second quarter turnovers and turnovers are inherently unpredictable, but still the Patriots dominated them so well I am confident it will happen again. The Broncos just cannot score 35 points, and they will need to score around that many to win. They allowed 23 points to a banged up Pittsburgh offensive team on the road. They are about to get NE at home firing on all cylinders. 13.5 is not enough to cover the onslaught coming. No Decker, Dawkins, so many other hurt players, and Willis in whatever shape he is in. Sorry Broncos, your season ends here. And yes, I barely discussed Tebow in these two paragraphs. But the truth is, he isn’t going to matter much here anyways.

Giants +8.5 over Packers, 31-27

-The Giants are going to give the Packers a run for their money. The case for the Giants to be able to win this game is reasonable and has many areas. They are hot while the Packers haven’t been at completely full strength for almost a month (including Jennings/Starks being at full health but also the bye and the mini bye that was Detroit when many players like Rodgers sat). The Giants defensive line is extremely strong and can get after the Green Bay offensive line that is a bit beaten up. The Giants, unlike the Saints (dome) and 49ers (good weather) can acclimate well to the climate in GB.  It won’t be as much of a factor. The Giants can throw the ball deep very well and the Packers let up big pass plays frequently. The Packers are good, and talent wise are much better than the Giants. However, that talent isn’t really in the right places to beat this Giants team right now. I don’t like all that time off, the little injuries, and the stress that the extended season put on them (they made a full Super Bowl run, from the Wild Card position last year, and had to burn so much energy keeping the perfect streak going it wore on them). It is really hard to repeat. The Packers will lose sometime. I would take the points here because I can totally see it being this week.

I just picked against Aaron Rodgers and with Eli Manning. To quote a great writer, I will now light myself on fire.

Ravens -8.5 over Texans, 27-13

-TJ Yates is inexperienced, and will come to pieces in Baltimore. It is just as simple as that. Flacco isn’t great but a 12 of 19 for 205 yards and 1 TD game is all they need. Rice should have a productive day and I think a defensive score for the Ravens will be in order. This will probably be a game in which it will somewhat painful to pay full attention. I won’t be surprised to see a few injuries here either, though I don’t wish that on anyone. Baltimore hasn’t had the greatest record at home, but will get up for this game. Arian Foster won’t be enough to get this done, and the Ravens move on.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 140-61

By Spread: 109-90

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 385-194
By Spread: 318-268

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend!

Fun stats from this year before I make my picks: 

Packers were 15-1 this year, despite allowing more yards than they gained. Same for NE at 13-3.

NE had the #1 and #3 TEs. This from the team that was bombing it to Randy Moss as recently as two years ago. Intriguing.

With Matt Flynn’s 6 TD game the Packers actually beat Tom Brady’s 50 TD mark from 2007….with the combined stats from all throwers.

The Steelers somehow still had the number 1 defense. I don’t like them, but respect. They are just dodging father time. Maybe next year it will catch up.

Wild Card round selections:

Bengals +3 over Texans, 21-17

-I could just say Jake Delhomme or Gary Kubiak and be done with it. But, there are other reasons. The Bengals are a youthful, energized team while the Texans just look happy to have made it. They have lost three in a row. They have many injury concerns. The Texans do have a strong running game and we just saw Ray Rice hit the Bengals hard. But, the Texans are out of sync, Andre Johnson is not  nearly right, and I trust Dalton over Delhomme or Yates. I think AJ Green breaks a big one and the Bengals win a nice little contest. They played a few weeks ago and the Texans scored in the last seconds to win it. I think it bounces the other way this time, the Bengals will have learned from that. And no, this has nothing to do with me wanting the Bengals going to NE in round two over the Steelers…

Denver +9.5 over Steelers, 15-13

-…Because the Steelers won’t advance anyways. I think Denver wins this game and the Steelers won’t be an option. The Steelers are beaten up with Clark out, Ben having his high ankle sprain recently tweaked, Mendenhall gone (though I don’t think that is a big deal), and the offensive line perpetually beaten up. I think Denver can play with them tight and close, with better special teams and a better running game. I think Denver has over 40 total carries, and this contains the pace of the game to limit scoring in general. Now let’s be clear: I don’t believe in Tebow. He isn’t good. But even he isn’t as bad as last week vs. KC or the 4 INT monstrosity of a game we saw in Buffalo. This is a moment where he can rise and do the impossible. And in a contest between Tebow needing to be mediocre and Big Ben needing to be great…well, I am going with Tebow. Because Ben has continually shown me he can be terrible in big playoff games. For all those who laud his Super Bowl wins, go back and look at the game logs. The Steelers defense won those games. And it could propel them to a win here as well. But I think the Broncos squeak one out, and Ben throws a bad pick late to help that happen. A late Prater kick to win? Sounds about right with how this season has gone. 9.5 is just too much anyways, especially at home. The Steelers tried to beat the Browns and couldn’t do so convincingly. Denver is at least as good as Cleveland. Take the points.

Saints -11 over Lions, 45-31

-This one is pretty easy because we have the case study from a month ago. The Saints could have scored 60 in that game. The Lions can score, but they just cannot stop anyone. The Packers had half their team going on half motivation and STILL lit them up. So, the Saints do the same, at home in their dome. Calvin Johnson though? Another 200 yard day could be coming. The Saints though will not let up this time, and may approach 50 points before it is over. Stafford has played well, but I trust Brees far more.

Giants -3 over Falcons, 28-23

-So, the Falcons are hot and no one trusts the Giants this late in the season. But, let me make my case for the Giants. They still have an awesome defensive line and that solves so many things this time of year. I trust Eli more than Matty Ice at this point in their careers, especially in Giants Stadium. The Falcons simply aren’t as good outside the dome, and the high flying nature of the passing offense won’t be as effective in those winds. I have seen Eli win games completing 9 passes this year. The Falcons won’t be able to do that. The Giants have been here before and won or been competitive. The Falcons got embarrassed in the playoffs last year and the team if anything got worse. I trust Coughlin over Mike Smith due to experience, and this game is a win for the Giants.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 137-60

By Spread: 106-89

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 382-193
By Spread: 315-267

BLISS