NFL 2015 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Pats -5.5 over Chiefs

-Last week I took 3 underdogs, and hit 3 of 4 overall. The theme is a bit flipped this week. Wild Card rounds are growing odd because so many of the 5-6 teams are better than the lowers, especially the 4s. We saw both get killed this past weekend. This time however, the better teams are fresh and hosting at home. It is going to be hard to convince me to stray away from those teams. I just don’t bet against the Pats in the playoffs often. Sometimes if the point spread increases to unmanageable levels, but 5.5 points isn’t excessive. It comes down to Brady and Belichick, at home, laying less than a touchdown, versus Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Despite how beat up New England is (which at this point is overstated), I am sticking with Brady/Belichick.

Cards -7.5 over Packers

-I really like what the Packers did last week, and appreciate the .5 edge on the line. But I picked the Cardinals to go to the Super Bowl, the matchup between this team has been aptly showcased this season, and the Cardinals are just by far the more complete team. Kirk Cousins was inexperienced. Carson Palmer is anything but. I love the defensive playmakers the Cardinals have, and the overall depth and talent is much larger for Arizona. They remain my NFC Super Bowl pick.

Panthers -3 over Seahawks

-Seattle is probably a better team, let’s put that out there first. They can pass better, are tougher on defense (Carolina is no slouch), and I like their special teams and depth much better. But it is so difficult to play a game in Minnesota like they did, and then have to travel again, to the East Coast far away from their home. The record of teams playing tough physical playoff games and then turning around and doing it again and winning is pretty much nil. The Panthers are rested, ready, and have focused on this matchup for two weeks. I really think this results in a win for them, but it is a low confidence bet that I won’t be investing much in.

Steelers +9 over Broncos, DEN SU

-That is just so many points! Beat up Big Ben, Antonio Brown sitting out aside, 9 points is a lot for a playoff game. And since as a rule I don’t trust Peyton in playoff games, I’m taking those points. The Steelers will still be able to move the ball, and even though the Denver moneyline is probably the simplest bet here, I’m sensing a 20-16 game where those points will be vital.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 136-87

By Spread: 117-104

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 931-511
By Spread: 762-666

NFL 2015 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Texans +3.5 over Chiefs, HOU SU

-A couple of reasons here: 

1. JJ Watt being fully healthy is a game changing. Justin Houston not being fully healthy is impactful. 

2. Brian Hoyer being healthy makes a big difference. Jeremy Maclin being banged up make a huge difference. 

3. I trust Bill O'Brien, even in the playoffs. In no way do I trust Andy Reid. Especially in the playoffs. 

4. At home, getting 3.5 points? I know KC is on a roll, but look at that schedule. Texans have had a tougher road to get here. 

Bengals +2.5 over Steelers, CIN SU

-Second time here, I'm taking the points. It may become a theme. The Steelers are that team that "no one wants to play" but there are now expanding holes in that argument. First, the Steelers have these mental hiccups every three weeks or so. Second, Tomlin hasn't been a good coach or had playoff success in about 5 years now. Third, Ben turns into a turkey every fifth game or so, and has had some curious decisionmaking down the stretch that makes me question what exactly his injury status is. Fourth, the running game is in a bad place for the Steelers with Deangelo out. Time for Cincy to drop all the linebackers, every play, and see Pittsburgh try to win it all going deep. Maybe they can. More likely, Cincy's offense dinks and dunks, each back gets close to 18 touches each, and AJ torches them as per usual. In AJ I trust. 

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks, SEA SU

-I am taking Seattle to win, don't get me wrong. But the Vikings have exactly the type of team to copy the Rams blueprint and smash Seattle in the mouth. If it becomes a shootout, the Rams don't have a chance. But if it is kept close, and the Vikings can occasionally hit receivers down the seem and between the numbers deep, they can cover and even perhaps win. 

Packers +1.5 over Ethnic Slurs, GB SU

-Respect to Washington for a pretty good regular season. Ditto to Kirk Cousins. However, this isn't the regular season. I know Green Bay has looked bad at times. So has Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. But I still trust them over untested Cousins and Jay Gruden. Green Bay isn't afraid of the road, won't have issues with weather, and has the best QB on the planet (yes, still). James Jones has an old man game, and somehow grits out 8 for 80 and 2 TDs. Rodgers makes two or three "Aaron Rodgers!" plays and they advance. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 5-9

Record this year:

Straight Up: 134-85

By Spread: 114-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 929-509
By Spread: 759-665

NFL 2015 Week 17 Predictions

Week 17 Predictions

Bengals –10 over Ravens

-Ravens had their Super Bowl last week. This will be more like a bizzaro Pro Bowl for them.

Texans -6.5 over Jags

-Just because the Texans need this game (technically) and the Jags don’t. The teams are closer in talent than this though.

Pats -9.5 over Fins

-The Pats will sew up the top seed with a strong win here. Fins may dissolve badly in this game.

Saints +5.5 over Falcons, NO SU

-Why is this 5.5? I’m confused. Take the free points.

Raiders +7.5 over Chiefs, KC SU

-Chiefs will win this one, but that is a lot of points.

Giants -5.5 over Eagles

-Eagles may not have a solid coaching set up for this game, and something tells me these players are about done. BIG OBJ game here.

Jets -3 over Bills

-The Jets have a chance to stamp a playoff spot by beating Rex? Oh hell yes.

Steelers -11 over Browns

-Easy one to pick. The Steelers had their mess up last week.

Bucs +10.5 over Panthers, CAR SU

-Panthers have been getting scored on, the Bucs have been competent, and there are a lot of injuries and sits for the Panthers going on.

Colts pk over Titans

-Just because the Colts (technically) need this win and the Titans should want to lose for pick placement.

Broncos -10 over Chargers

-Broncos finish this easy one to stay competitive for a top 2 seed and bye placement.

Cards -6.5 over Seahawks

-Cards need this one, Seahawks kind of don’t.

Rams -3.5 over Niners

-The Rams can be 5-1 in their division this year!

Packers -3 over Vikings

-Packers want this one I guess? If both teams are trying, the Packers are better as we saw earlier this year.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 126-79

By Spread: 109-94

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 929-509
By Spread: 759-665

NFL 2015 Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 Predictions

Ethnic Slurs -3 over Eagles

-Eagles continue to collapse.

I am avoiding Panthers games for the last two weeks. Also anything Bears or Bucs, which is convenient because they play each other. The Cowboys/Bills game offends me on general principle.

Lions -10 over Niners

-Lions can score, Niners can’t.

Chiefs -10.5 over Browns

-Wow did the schedule break right for KC.

Pats -3 over Jets

-There is a lot of reason to choose either side, but in any close game with only a FG line and something reasonable for the Pats to play for (home field throughout), I’ll stay with Brady and Belichick.

Texans -3.5 over Titans

-No Hoyer but the defense carries this for the playoff bound Texans.

Steelers -10 over Ravens

-Lock of the week. Ravens may give a good try, but how the hell they cover the air attack, I have no idea.

Jags +3 over Saints, JAX SU

-Uncertainty over Brees makes me concerned. Taking the team I know will be able to score and is going in the right direction.

Cards -4.5 over Packers

-Low confidence because Arizona is much better but Green Bay have far more motivation to win.

Seahawks -12 over Rams

-Two team tease with Steelers? Yes please.

Vikings -6.5 over Giants

-Giants are falling out of it and this is a nail in the coffin without OBJ.

Bengals +3.5 over Broncos

-Just a hunch, taking the points in a close game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 7-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 119-75

By Spread: 103-89

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 922-505
By Spread: 753-660

NFL 2015 Week 15 Predictions

Week 15 Predictions

Cards -3.5 over Eagles

-The Cards march forward toward their bye week.

Jags -3 over Falcons

-The Falcons are bad. Really bad. I can’t believe how bad.

Giants +4 over Panthers, NYG SU

-This is it. Home dog, big offense, hurt Panthers.

Vikings -5.5 over Bears

-Season is over for the Bears at this point, Vikings want that playoff spot.

Chiefs -6.5 over Ravens

-Chiefs just keep winning. Don’t look now, but that AFC West title is still alive….

Broncos +7 over Steelers, PIT SU

-…Because the Steelers are probably going to beat the Broncos this week. 7 points is a lot though.

Fins +1 over Chargers

-Chargers are so far beat up this is simply a pick against them.

Seahawks -14.5 over Browns

-That half point makes me nervous, but this should be a blowout by all accounts.

Pats -14 over Titans

-Ditto.

Packers -3 over Raiders

-I like the Raiders, but this is where the Packers should be waking up and going forward decisively.

Bengals -6 over Niners

-Even with AJ at QB, they can cover this versus the listless Niners.

Saints -2.5 over Lions

-Why not? The Lions are back down after showing some life, and the Saints are good for a 40 point showing at home on Monday night one more time in the Brees/Payton era.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 112-71

By Spread: 96-86

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 915-501
By Spread: 746-657

NFL 2015 Week 14 Predictions

Week 14 Predictions

Falcons +8 over Panthers, CAR SU

-Panthers defense is not right. Take the points until further notice.

Lions -3.5 over Rams

-Lions are trying, Rams have quit. Or Jeff Fisher doesn’t know how to coach in the 21^st century. It is called the forward pass Jeff.

Jags -1.5 over Colts

-Jags can throw. Matt Hasselbeck is looking really old.

Saints +4.5 over Bucs, TB SU

-Too many points for Drew Brees, still.

Pats -3.5 over Texans

-Brady/Bill are not losing this game. It just isn’t happening.

Bengals -2.5 over Steelers

-If this stays under 3, I love it. Bengals essentially can end Steelers’ season.

Chargers  +10.5 over Chiefs, KC SU

-Just cover.

Titans +7.5 over Jets, NYJ SU

-Mariota!

Raiders +6.5 over Broncos, DEN SU

-It is going to be relatively low scoring, so I just want all those points.

Packers -6.5 over Cowboys

-I don’t think the Cowboys can score. I wouldn’t take the over in this game in general.

Ravens +11.5 over Seahawks, SEA SU

-Seattle will probably crush the Ravens from the eye test, but that’s a lot of points and home dogs getting more than 11 points are 70% winners.

Giants -1.5 over Fins

-Who even knows anymore with these two.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-7

By Spread: 6-9

Record this year:

Straight Up: 104-67

By Spread: 89-81

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 907-497
By Spread: 739-652

NFL 2015 Week 13 Predictions

Week 13 Predictions

Texans -2.5 over Bills

-The Texans are rolling, and the Bills can’t get healthy. Time for the end of the season Rex breakdown.

Falcons +2.5 over Bucs, ATL SU

-Falcons have severely fallen off, but they still have a realistic playoff shot.

Bears -6.5 over 49ers

-Bears somewhat have it together now.

Bengals -6.5 over Browns

-How is this not over a touchdown.

Jags +2.5 over Titans

-The Titans want that top pick…

Cards -5.5 over Rams

-The Rams might need to figure out the forward pass to be competitive here.

Fins -4.5 over Ravens

-Matt Schaub’s pick six tour continues!

Seahawks over Vikings

-Tough, defensive game but now the difference is the Seattle passing offense’s ability to move the ball.

Giants +2 over Jets

-Too many injuries the Jets, especially Revis.

Broncos -4.5 over Chargers

-I like this Broncos team to roll until that Bengals team.

Chiefs -2.5 over Raiders

-Chiefs are rolling forward, keeping on that train.

Pats -9.5 over Eagles

-The Pats are going to win this game, and big. But if it creeps over 10, I won’t be taking it.

Saints +8.5 over Panthers, CAR SU

-Too many points, but a probably Carolina win.

Colts +6.5 over Steelers, PIT SU

-Too many points for a team over .500.

Ethnic Slurs -3.5 over Cowboys

-Cowboys are just done.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 5-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 96-60

By Spread: 83-72

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 899-490
By Spread: 733-643