2016 NFL Week 6 Predictions

Week 6 Predictions:

Chargers +4.5 over Broncos, 20-16

-I’m not buying the Broncos are for real. They can’t push the ball down the field. Chargers dice them to death in this game.

Lions -3 over Rams, 24-16

-I still trust the teams that can score over the teams that can’t. Free Goff!

Steelers -7.5 over Fins, 31-10

-...I’m sorry for the delay in the column as I raced to a website to complete some business between seeing this line and writing the commentary for it.

Pats -8.5 over Bengals, 34-24

-This end the Bengals’ season as real contenders? Feels early but it’d be difficult to come back from. Brady rolls again.

Ravens +3 over Giants, 17-16

-This is a lot of overreaction. I will take the points with the solid team. The Ravens just need to keep it solid and pound the ball.

Saints +2.5 over Panthers, 31-20

-Saints win this and suddenly a path to legitimacy emerges. Panthers might just be done. They can’t run the ball or stop the pass. That turns out to be a bad combination.

Ethnic Slurs +3.5 over Eagles, 26-23

-Yeah, I’m not watching this. Just taking some points.

Jags +2.5 over Bears, 24-20

-Neither team is very good, but the Bears are hurting and the Jags are coming off a bye. That’s enough, with the free couple of points.

49ers +9 over Bills, 14-16

-Do I have to pick this game? If pressed, that’s just a lot of points versus a Rex Ryan team.

Titans -7 over Browns, 20-6

-Titans are an absolutely boring, mediocre team that does very few things wrong. The Browns…well, I feel bad at this point. And can I try out for quarterback?

Raiders +1.5 over Chiefs, 31-23

-Man, the Raiders have to fix some things on defense. But they can absolutely score at will and in so many ways. The Chiefs are rested, but I still doubt their ability to racket up and score on this level.

Packers -3.5 over Cowboys, 26-18

-I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Dak’s first interception here. Rodgers continues to roll forward.

Falcons +6.5 over Seahawks, 27-23

-Seems strange to say since ATL just defeated both Super Bowl participants from last year, but THIS would make a statement this team is for real. They should at least cover this insulting line versus a team with a still shoddy offensive line.

Colts +3.5 over Texans, 20-22

-Ugh. How long can Brock go like this? It is just thoroughly mediocre to watch. Taking Luck with that extra half point to at least have this close.

Cards -7.5 over Jets, 27-13

-The dissolving process is starting for these Jets. Should Hackenberg play as of Week 9? Week 13? 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-4

By Spread: 7-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 41-32

By Spread: 30-42

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 976-546
By Spread: 795-712

2016 NFL Week 5 Predictions

Week 5 Predictions:

Ravens -4 over Ethnics Slurs, 27-20

-Home team, Kirk Cousin can’t figure out the red zone, and Ravens are a better coached and more disciplined team. Kirk is a decent fantasy play though: Derek Carr lit this Ravens team up last week after all.

Pats -10.5 over Browns, 27-13

-Normally the Browns are a trap team for the Pats, but in Brady’s return? No way. The amount of offensive weapons for the Pats might be more limited than you think though. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Edelman and Blount are both out.

Eagles -3 over Lions, 23-17

-Lions are falling apart with injuries, and the Eagles are rolling. Nice schedule for them, but the wins count so this is probably a playoff team.

Bears +5 over Colts, 20-23

-Colts shouldn’t be favored over anyone by that much right now. Brian Hoyer may hold onto this job long term as well, and should be successful even with Kevin White going on IR.

Titans -3.5 over Fins, 20-10

-Fins are a mess, Titans are about the same consistent team each week. They are going to run, a lot. The Fins look to be a mess all over the place, and have a disrupted week anyways with hurricane concerns.

Vikings -6.5 over Texans, 24-16

-This is starting to be about “proper respect” for this team. Should be another hohum win with few people betting on this team.

Steelers -7 over Jets, 31-17

-Jets are hurting a little, and what was supposed to their strength (cornerback play) has absolutely been their weakness. That’s not good versus the Steelers.

Falcons +4.5 over Broncos, 26-24

-Broncos are still a run first, play close and win with defense team. I hate lines over 3 with those teams, and the Falcons have been great. Statement wins over both participants in last year’s Super Bowl would be great for them.

Bengals -2 over Cowboys, 24-20

-Stay away from this game. Bengals are more consistent and dynamic, but the Cowboys will run it regardless and play possession ball.

Rams -2 over Bills, 17-10

-Low confidence pick. I just still don’t think the Bills are that good. They scored 16 points in a “blow out”.

Raiders -3.5 over Chargers, 35-31

-Take the over. This should be a shootout as the Raiders are really good and Phillip Rivers still has his deal with the devil to be productive no matter who his receivers are. The Raiders are a more well-rounded and also healthier team, and get a win here.

Packers -7 over Giants, 29-20

-Something is off with the Giants offense. Aaron Rodgers has had 2 weeks to prep and examine the offense and his practice. Jordy Nelson has had that much time to continue his recovery and gain confidence in the knee. I feel pretty good about this one even though the line is relatively high. Beckham as a distraction is factor as well.

Bucs (whatever the line is) over Panthers, 27-23

-Something is wrong in Carolina. Cam’s health aside, the issues in the secondary are very real so I am going to be taking the Bucs as long as they are getting some points at all.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-5

By Spread: 8-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 32-28

By Spread: 23-36

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 967-542
By Spread: 788-706

2016 NFL Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions:

Wow, this is getting brutal. Trying to pull out of this dive.

Bengals -7 over Fins, 28-20

-I had this, I swear. Several websites can corroborate.

Colts -2.5 over Jags, 27-23

-Colts can still do something this year. The Jags (and Gus Bradley) might already be done.

Lions -3 over Bears, 24-13

-Injuries. Bears steaming to a top 3 pick. Lions are going to “death by a thousand cuts” them.

Falcons +3.5 over Panthers, 24-26

-I legitimately feel bad for the circumstances around this. What is happening with Charlotte absolutely is affecting the Panthers. Best wishes to team and city.

Raiders +3.5 over Ravens, 24-22

-Baltimore is not a real 3-0 team, and the Raiders are still coming…I think.

Titans +5.5 over Texans, 20-17

-Texans have some serious issues right now, and I like the Titans’ ability to keep it close and surprise some folks.

Pats -4.5 over Bills, 24-16

-This could be the one NE lets down on. But I’m not betting against them until it happens.

Seahawks -1.5 over Jets, 20-17

-This is a mess with injuries and such. Stay away.

Browns +7.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 17-24

-Just cover. I feel like the Browns are going to try until they get one win and then completely fall apart.

Bucs +3.5 over Broncos, 21-23

-Taking the points, hoping for a close game. Siemian is going to have a bad one very soon here.

Cards -7.5 over Rams, 34-10

-Sorry Rams. I know you play well in division, but ask Tampa what happens when the Cards play a stinker and then come to play a team with major flaws the next week. If Carson isn’t right here though, real concern flags go up.

Saints +3.5 over Chargers, 34-31

-Take the over. Like, go now and take it and then come back to finish reading. Saints really need a win to have any sense of relevance left.

Cowboys -3 over 49ers, 22-17

-Boring game, will be grind it out and running all over the place. Neither QB should do much, especially with Dez out.

Steelers -5.5 over Chiefs, 33-24

-As much as I enjoyed what happened to the Steelers last week, this is probably the game it flips and they destroy their next opponent. Stay away for betting purposes.

Vikings -4.5 over Giants, 24-19

-I am riding the Vikings until it doesn’t work anymore. Other than skill positions, maybe the best overall team in football.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-9

By Spread: 5-9

Record last week:

Straight Up: 23-23

By Spread: 15-30

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 958-537
By Spread: 780-700

2016 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Cards -3.5 over Bills, 30-13

-SOOO exited. Someone gets to beat the Bills before NE does next week?! This could get ugly for the Ryans. Play all of your Cardinals.

Vikings +7.5 over Panther, 20-26

-Ugh, this feels like it could get blown out based on how the CAR-SF game went. But in a defensive game I’m talking that extra half point.

Bengals -3.5 over Broncos, 24-19

-Bengals need it more. Siemian is going to hit a bump somewhere here and this defense may well be it. Dalton needs some of the secondary players to step up outside of AJ before Tyler Eifert comes back.

Packers -7 over Lions, 34-23

-Death, taxes, the Packers beating the Lions in Green Bay. Rodgers fixes a few things this week and everyone can RELAX.

Ravens -1 over Jags, 20-17

-Ravens may not be good. It is looking like the Jags are absolutely not good. I won’t watch much of this game. Mike Wallace for real though?

Fins -9.5 over Browns, 24-13

-I won’t actually be betting this anywhere, but I’ll lay the points versus a rookie QB. Good luck Cody Kessler, I am rooting for you.

Giants -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-22

-This could get ugly in Washington really quickly. Cousins, you should have signed that contract. Giants are going to put both offensive and defense together one of these games, and it’ll be pretty awesome to watch.

Raiders +1 over Titans, 30-17

-Okay, I like both teams as up and coming. The Raiders are just a year further along. Carr has been great, if the defense can be even average, they will kill this team. If they can’t right the ship here, I will be backing off the Raiders. Mariota could quietly have a sneaky good game.

Niners +10.5 over Seattle, 9-13

-Seattle lays nothing larger than a field goal from here on out until that offensive line is fixed. They’ve scored 15 points all year!

Bucs -5 over Rams, 20-6

-Last game for Keenum? It should be. Bucs will find a medium between Week 1 (surprisingly good) and Week 2 (egg laying). Rams aren’t playing Seattle, so they won’t show any skill whatsoever. I also feel like Chris Long was their Patronus and they’ve lost something big with him in NE.

Chargers +3.5 over Colts, 30-27

-The Colts haven’t been even reasonably good on defense for 20 games now. They will fall behind by multiple scores at some point. The Chargers could put random ticket holders in at receiver and produce points because Rivers remains criminally underrated. Somehow McCluster, signed this week, has 50 yards and a score and they win outright.

Jets +3 over Chiefs, 23-19

-Chiefs aren’t dynamic on either side of the ball. It does turn out losing Charles and Houston actually makes you less exciting, and far less threatening. The Jets, on paper, look pretty good and if they avoid being outmaneuvered in crunch time with game management, they will win outright. Oh hi Andy Reid!

Eagles +3.5 over Steelers, 23-24

-This will be a tougher game that most would think because somehow the Eagles have been very tough. Ben outclasses Carson late, but I’ll take that extra half point to cover.

Cowboys -7 over Bears, 24-13

-Bears are quickly falling apart, and Cowboys are figuring some things out on offense. Easy pick for this one. Might be the first big Zeke game.

Saints -3 over Falcons, 34-31

-10-year anniversary of the Gleason game, Saints really need the win, Primetime Drew Brees at home. A lot of points will be scored here, a lot of changes to fantasy leagues on Monday night from what they were Monday morning.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 5-10

Record last week:

Straight Up: 17-14

By Spread: 10-21

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 952-528
By Spread: 775-691

2016 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions:

I hate predicting week 1. I have a better feel on a lot of teams now. Let’s go.

Saints +4.5 over Giants, 27-30

-Giants find their offensive flow, but the Saints keep it close enough. I will almost always take 4.5 with the Saints versus non-elite teams. For gambling purposes, take the over though.

49ers +13.5 over Panthers, 13-24

-Strong Panthers win, but 13.5 points?! Are you crazy? That’s still a team that won an NFL game by 28 points.

Cowboys +3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-20

-Something isn’t right with Washington. Well, something isn’t as we thought it’d be. The Cowboys develop some medium depth passing and facilitate running production to keep it close at least.

Fins +6.5 over Pats, 24-27

-Pats have a strong chance to win based on schemes, being at home, probably getting Gronk back, etc. However, 6.5 without your starting QB in a division game is a bit too much.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 28-27

-Bengals continue to be the well balanced, well put together team people don’t want to acknowledge. With the brilliance of AJ Green, this team could score with them too.

Browns +6.5 over Ravens, 17-19

-Not confident in the ability of the Ravens to score with a pumped up Josh McCown and an underrated set of receivers. Too many points to lay.

Texans -2.5 over Chiefs, 24-21

-Texans are putting it together on offense. I kind of like this team, if Brock can start to make it seem natural. Watt is only going to get healthier, and the Chiefs have some serious holes on defense. I especially don’t like the challenges they are having manufacturing a pass rush.

Lions -6 over Titans, 27-20

-I don’t like this, just laying the 6 because they are at home. Jim Bob Cooter! RB checkdown city!

Seahawks -7 over Rams, 20-6

-Normally I’d say “not enough points exist to get me to stay away from taking the Seahawks. They should crush LA like a grape”. However, this is exactly the type of game LA wins somehow. I am guessing this isn’t one of those times though. Seattle also is struggling on offense with health. Guess when you have an abhorrent offensive line one year, and then don’t address it, that can be a problem.

Cards -6.5 over Bucs, 30-22

-The Bucs are feisty, but this is a get right game for the Cards at home. Big David Johnson game here. If Carson struggles here, I might officially be worried though.

Jags +3 over Chargers, 28-24

-Chargers can’t score without Keenan Allen. Jags are much improved and we start to see it here.

Raiders -4.5 over Falcons, 27-20

-Falcons just don’t look very dynamic right now, and it seems the Raiders’ rise is for real.

Colts +6 over Broncos, 23-24

-Just cover. The Colts have always been able to play Denver tough. Trevor Siemian turns into a pumpkin at some point.

Packers -2.5 over Vikings, 24-16

-Um, yeah. Let me get on that Packers line really quickly. Prime time Aaron Rodgers only has to give a sub FG line? Bradford or Hill, doesn’t matter. Still love my Packers Super Bowl pick, Rodgers is otherworldy playing this position.

Bears -3 over Eagles, 20-14

-This is MNF? I don’t even care I’m missing this game. Experience over a rookie is my read here, low confidence selection though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-6

By Spread: 5-11

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 945-520
By Spread: 770-681

2016 Week 1 Predictions & Season Predictions

2016 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots

AFC North – Bengals

AFC South – Colts

AFC West – Raiders

AFC Wild Cards – Chiefs & Texans

AFC Championship – Patriots over Bengals

NFC East – Giants

NFC North – Packers

NFC South – Panthers

NFC West – Cardinals

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks & Saints   

NFC Championship – Packers over Cardinals  

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-Luck or Newton may have better raw numbers, but Rodgers will have a ton of wins and his typically efficient season

OPY: Newton

-A ton of touchdowns are still coming for Cam with better WRs this year.

DPY: JJ Watt

-This is one of those “until further notice this will likely be the pick each year” situations.

ORY: Zeke Elliot

-Talent and opportunity.

DRY: Jalen Ramsey

-Again, based on opportunity. Was going to be Joey Bosa, but that didn’t work out well.

COY: Belichick

-If he goes 12-4, 13-3 with Brady missing and so much hubbub…

Last season my spread picks were not nearly good enough. The goal is to clean that up a bit this year.

Week 1 Predictions:

Titans +1.5 over Viks, 20-13

-Just because I love Mariota and the Vikings are in transition at quarterback.

Chiefs -7 over Chargers, 27-17

-Someday, the Chargers will fix their running defense and offensive line health.

Bears +6 over Texans, 20-21

-Bears cover. Sneakily, they had the 10^th best offense last year and Cutler was a top 2 QB under pressure. Texans have a bunch of new toys they need to figure out how to use. Watt isn't fully healthy yet. 

Raiders +1 over Saints, 37-35

-Shootout alert! Irrational Derek Carr love! 

Packers -4.5 over Jags, 34-27

-The game that made me think how much I am allowed to allocate to line guessing this year! Wow this is delicious. 4.5? Aaron Rodgers?!

Bengals -2.5 over Jets, 23-17

-Bengals are just so physical on both lines, and the Jets’ offense will stay good as long as it takes the league to figure out Fitzmagick. Yeah…I’ll stay with the Bengals.

Browns +4 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just taking the points between two bad teams, one having a veteran QB and one with a rookie one.

Ravens -3 over Bills, 20-14

-Bills had the offseason from hell. Ravens quietly got healthy from their many injuries.

Falcons -3 over Bucs, 26-20

-Still the veteran team versus the young team. Almost Bucs.

Dolphins +10.5 over Seahawks, 21-27

-That’s just too many points for the first week of the season. Just need to cover.

Giants over Cowboys PK, 27-23

-All about the Romo injury. I like the Giants offense a little this year too.

Colts -4 over Lions, 27-14

-One team gains its superstar back, one loses theirs to retirement….4 point game? Yes please.

Cards -6 over Pats, 30-23

-I really like this Cards team. Too much in Arizona without Brady.

Ethnic Slurs +3.5 over Steelers, 27-30

-You like this pick? It’s really just for the cover versus a still below average secondary.

LA Rams (!) -2.5 over 49ers, 19-16

-The 49ers are going to be really bad. Blaine Gabbert everyone! Los Angeles has football again! 

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:

Straight Up: 935-514
By Spread: 765-670

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 4: NBA Finals Preview

The 2015-2016 NBA Finals is not a rematch. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The names of the teams are the same, but overall it is really different.

Golden State has won 73 regular season games since its title win last year. The Death Lineup isn’t a novel idea or something sprung on the league from nowhere: it was a staple this year and we know the havoc it causes. Steph was a superstar last year, an MVP, and this close to a Finals MVP (I love that Iggy got it, no arguments). But Steph this year is really a different player. He is a “top 5 player of the last 20 years” kind of guy. His whirling set of ways to score is a Human Torch like ability to affect the game in drastic ways over short periods. He pairs that inhuman and almost wild ability to flummox defenders with a perfect calm on defense and running the offense strategically. As so many announcers say, his superpower is that he almost never makes bad decisions, dumb fouls, misses his switches. He's Captain America there: a superpower that is being so calm and direct in his intent and focus. Unable to make the play athletically, sure, that happens. But his focus is crazy, and I love watching that combined with his crazy explosive ability as a scorer. The offensive savant has become a basketball savant. 

Golden State also learned a lot about their limits and abilities this year. Klay is a superstar. Sorry, not sorry, I truly believe that. He has rounded out his offensive game. I’m not terrified when he backs a guy down and does a turnaround, or switches hands around the rim. His shooting was already otherworldly, and he is a top 10 shooter all time already by my book. We do not talk enough about his perimeter defense. I’d take him over Tony Allen, Chris Paul, Avery Bradley. Klay has discipline, length, intelligence, and lateral speed. Draymond also grew a lot, both in being a pure big in the rebounding stats, and a pure point forward as a facilitator. He isn’t the same player even as last year, and is still only just finding himself. Kerr and the coaching staff has changed a lot too, especially in the time he was away. The team learned more autonomy, and a few things from Luke Walton as well. And they certainly learned from Oklahoma City.

Cleveland, likewise, are not close to the same team. Last year’s team was hurt, defensive, slow, and Lebron-centric on offense. Lebron himself was tired, and they had an older head coach who made mistakes in the NBA game and was disconnected from his players. This year’s team is much better on offense and much worse on defense. Players who were playing out last year and giving tremendous defensive output in Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert are available but not being used. Iman could play in this series but probably won’t. Tristan just really shouldn’t unless it is spot minutes at center. Kyrie and Love are around, and the offense is flowing as a result. It really is Kyrie’s offense when he is on the court. Love is overpaid as a glorified spot up shooter, but it is effective because of his stretch of the floor while still having great rebounding prowess.

The offense sings with Kyrie and Love on the court now, but the defense is horrid. Specifically, the Pick and Roll defense when Kyrie and Love are the 1 and 4 or 1 and 5 is abhorrent. They are getting gashed each time, and it is a perfect storm of factors. They aren’t naturally defensively inclined, aren’t physically gifted specifically for defense, and don’t talk. If Lowry and Bismack can destroy it, what will Curry/Draymond, Curry/Iggy or Curry/Ezeli do to it?

Prediction: I like the Warriors in 5. I think 6 could make sense as well as 4. I actually think the advanced stats will say afterwards this series was a strong win for the Warriors, but because the 3s are going to fly it is likely the Cavs get a game or two. 3s by definition are a high variance stat, and a game or two will swing. A 1-1 start wouldn’t surprise me, especially as the Cavs have had so much rest. But the Cavs will take control of this series.

It will unfold mainly because the public is forgetting one thing: The Warriors can SCORE. Even more than last year’s team. If the Cavs go big to try to maximize rebounds, they will get blasted by the Death Lineup. If they go small, the Dubs will isolate the 1-4 PNR with Kyrie and Love and destroy that mismatch and it’ll be death by a thousand papercuts. The Thunder had exactly the right set of tools to stymie the Warriors: length, athleticism at each position, and communication. The Cavs just don’t have that.

Okay, so let’s talk about Lebron. He’s a top 3 player even now, has tons of experience in this spot, and is rested after going into last year’s Finals gassed. He loses in the Finals, pretty much every year. I discount the lockout Finals to some degree (sadly, the same for the Spurs win in 99, for the same reasons), and the win over San Antonio in 13, while great in some ways, still feels like San Antonio should have won. But for the most part, Lebron is still great in them. Even last year, it is a misnomer to label the defense Iggy, Barnes, and Draymond played on him as “great”. Klay played okay on him, but he will definitely be needed on Kyrie. Iggy is probably a bit slower than last year, and Lebron is about the same. Lebron will likely be great again: I just don’t think it will matter. It won't be why they lose. I do find Lebron’s lack of a jumper concerning. It really doesn’t make sense in his overall evolution as a player. However, it just isn’t the big concern here. 

For the Cavs to really have a chance, Kyrie needs to equal Curry, and Love needs to be tough enough to make Green’s fire and offensive impact negated by Love’s rebounding and reasonable defense. I think one significant element of the series, and a big difference from the OKC series, and is we see the reemergence of Draymond Green as an offensive scorer by himself. He just couldn’t do it on Ibaka with Adams behind him: on Love and Frye it’ll be cake.

I also really believe in the value of trial by fire rather than preparation by rest. The Cavs are fresher: this is very true. But the Warriors are hardened and tested. They took a monumental hook to the head by the Thunder, whirled around, and absolutely took control of the fight. They learned, they grew, they faced real adversity for the first time in a year and learned again how to excel. And worse of all for the Cavs, the Thunder gave Steph 7 games to REALLY get back to being “Steph Curry” about his layoff. He’s ready. The Cavs are done. Steph for Finals MVP this time.