2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 3

East:

1. Cavs over 2. Drakes in 6 games

-I want to find a way for the Cavs to win this. But like always, until they meet one of the power teams in the West, the Cavs will only lose to themselves. The Raptors have had a great year. Their backcourt is far and away better than the Cavs. But the frontcourt difference, especially if Jonas isn’t able to go, is tremendous. Even in the backcourt if Derozan isn’t efficient their advantage will be nullified. The Raptors do have a possibility of stopping the 3-point barrage that is coming because of their defensive abilities, but it isn’t enough. Lebron goes to yet another Finals.

West:

1.  Warriors over 3. Thunder in 5 games

-The Thunder have come a long way. I was supremely surprised at the shutdown of the Spurs, and Donovan did a much better job than anticipated. But the Warriors are just about ready to have everything click back into gear, and when fully on this team kills the Thunder. When it comes down to it, the Warriors will blitz the heck out of the Thunder’s big lineup, but unlike the Spurs, will actually be able to muster the guard advantage to do so. The Thunder will win the rebounding advantage, but that’s it. Westbrook will be goaded into going full board, and his lack of discipline and defensive focus will be exposed. Unless Draymond’s ankle is worse than they are letting on, this will be over in 5.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should remain the favorite, with only the Raptors without any real chance at the title. For the first time, I’ve been seriously considering the possibility of a Thunder-Cavs Finals. If so, I think I’d lean to the Thunder. The Warriors, remain the most logical Champion overall.

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 2

East:

3. Heat over 2. Drakes in 6 games

-The inconsistency of the Heat meets the inconsistency of the Raptors. You could tell me a lot of things will happen in this series and I’d believe you. However, the Heat are in a much healthier place and Wade versus Derozan is laughable even if Wade is a little bit too old. Lowry doesn’t seem healthy and Hassan is going to dominate Jonas athletically. Deng again has a good chance at a really effective series, and I like Goran to keep rolling as well. 

1. Cavs over 4. Hawks in 6 games

-At some point, this Cavs team is going to breakdown because of its lack of ability to switch and communicate effectively on defense. They will, in effect, defeat themselves. This will likely be against the Spurs or Dubs in the Finals, but it could happen here because of the kind of team the Hawks are. The vital components will be the wings for the Hawks, especially Bazemore. Korver will need to match JR Smith and space effectively and his age, athleticism, and inconsistency scares me. Millsap and Horford will be really effective against the Cavs’ bigs though, and an upset would not completely stun me.

West:

1.  Warriors over 5. Blazers in 5 games

-I am hesitant to even give the Blazers one win. Honestly, I’d sit Curry the series to make sure he’s healthy. Klay is impressive with his expanded chances/production. The Blazers are going to learn good lessons here but ultimately be pushed aside pretty quickly.

2. Spurs over 3. Thunder in 5 games

-Again, the one game for the Thunder is a stretch but a nod to the superior athleticism of the Thunder. Years ago, the Thunder simply outclassed the Spurs on athleticism. The Spurs have added Leonard since and the Thunder lost Harden. It is now much closer and the Spurs are a professional organization. This won’t be close, and the Durant rumors start flying.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should remain the favorite, but if Curry is slowed and San Antonio keeps rolling, they become the frontrunner. It already just a monstrously well-oiled machine right now. Cleveland gets about a 10% chance just because they are highly likely to make the Finals (unfortunately).

2015-2016 NBA Playoffs Round 1

East:

1. Cavs over 8. Pistons in 6 games

-The Pistons are actually matched up well versus Cleveland, but Lebron is still Lebron. KCP can show how good he is defensively in this series.  

2. Raptors over 7. Pacers in 7 games

-Bad matchup for the Drakes here, but they will be okay eventually.

3. Heat over 6. Hornets in 6 games

-Too much experience for Miami.

4. Hawks over 5. Celtics in 6 games

-I really like the Celtics core, but the advantage at the two big spots is too big to ignore. Plus, Jae Crowder really doesn’t have a role in this series and that sort of wastes him.

West:

1.  Warriors over 8. Rockets in 4 games

-The Dubs are going to kill this team. Houston is a mess, especially on things like defensive switches and team communication. I mean, Josh Smith and Michael Beasley are prominently involved.  

2. Spurs over 7. Grizzlies in 4 games

-Sweep. Too many injuries for the Grizzlies. They will give good effort but ultimately this will be a crazy boring series.

3. Thunder over 6. Mavericks in 5 games

-In some ways, this is very similar to the 2-7 series. The Mavericks get a win based strictly on Carlisle, but they can’t stand up to OKC athletically.

5. Blazers over 4. Clippers in 7 games

-Just a feeling. Chris Paul has to slow down at some point, hack a Jordan is in play, and the Blazers have a crew of 3-5 games to throw at an aging Pierce/Crawford backup unit.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should be the prohibitive favorite. It’s either them, San Antonio or Cleveland. And honestly, I can’t see Cleveland winning the title. 

NFL 2015 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Week 21 Predictions: Conference Round

Panthers -5.5 over Broncos

-I have been working on comparisons for these two teams from the last few Super Bowls, and this terrifies me. I want to support the Panthers. The numbers support the Panthers. And their relative performances in the post season scream Panthers.

However, I think the best comparison game is the Super Bowl between the 07-08 Pats and Giants. Award winning, record breaking QB on the top scoring offense (Brady and Newton), underrated defenses by those relative teams with playmakers at each level (Seymour/Charles, Bruschi/Luke, Asante/Norman). The other team (Giants/Broncos) spent all year pulling wins out of their butts, have a Manning, and have a dominant pass rush/D-Line. Of course, that comparison doesn’t help me much because the Giants WON that game, and I really feel like Carolina will win this one.

Cam is simply so much better than Peyton it isn’t funny. Perhaps the better game comparison is from two years ago: Seattle/Carolina have the dominant defense with crazy athleticism and a young dynamic QB. Denver has many of the same pieces, but its defense is in the position the offense used to be. Manning remains a weak post season QB and that is unlikely to change here. I called a blowout in that Seattle game, felt great about it, and then watched it happen.

-Carolina has met each challenge this year. They would be an astounding 18-1 if they win this game. In talking to a friend this week and I summarized as thus: they don’t have a dominant characteristic (no 50+ consecutive weeks or defense not allowing 10 points per game), but their body of work is a dominant feat. They remind me a little of the 03-04 Pats actually, the team that won 20+ straight games. They found ways to win and even win big, and got contributions from many areas.

-The injuries to Jared Allen and Thomas Davis worry me a little, but the defense is still stocked with playmakers. The key to the game should be the ability for Carolina to move it through the air. Denver should take away Greg Olsen and other TEs/FBs should be occupied helping with edge pass rushers. It will be up to the WRs, especially the 3^rd and 4^th WRs, to get open and make plays. I think Cam makes the magic happen here. Peyton is also a key because the one positive thing he has done since coming back from “injury” is not throw picks. That has to end here, and probably will. I think the game turns on the Panthers getting up and Peyton making a major mistake to bury himself further.

24-13 Panthers over Broncos

Record last week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 0-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 140-89

By Spread: 120-107

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 935-513
By Spread: 765-669

NFL 2015 Week 20 Predictions: Conference Round

Week 20 Predictions: Conference Round

Pats -3.5 over Broncos

-I feel very strongly about this assertion. Not even two months ago, New England was in Denver. They played really well without Edelman and then without Gronk. Denver had its defense healthier than it is now. New England still almost won, losing in overtime with some….unbalanced calls impeding their chance at that victory. Now, Denver has an ailing Chris Harris, has leaked yards on defense in general, and has downgraded at QB since that game. Osweiler moved the ball, even when he made mistakes. Peyton failed to avoid mistakes in the first half of this year, and in the second half he has not had those but really hasn’t moved the ball. The Pats are healthier than they were in that first game, have Edelman and Gronk rolling the offense again, and overall this year were a better team. One of my fun facts for this game is Brady has 3 TDs in Denver this year. Peyton has 1. That’s my final point, Brady versus Manning. 11-5 overall. Continued peak versus dropoff. 22 playoff wins to 12. Only 8 losses to 13. I’ll stick with Bill and Brady.

Cards +3.5 over Panther, ARI SU

-I have loved Arizona all year, and am not backing off now. Carolina is probably a more physical team, and has the special athlete in the game. But Arizona has more depth, better skill position weapons, and a coach in Arians that is at least equal if not better than Rivera. I am betting Palmer was getting the rust out last week, and now that he has a playoff win he can be comfortable in his execution. Injuries to Olsen and Jared Allen don’t help Carolina’s case. This might finally be the game where Carolina’s lack of weapons finally catches up with them.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 140-87

By Spread: 120-105

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 935-511
By Spread: 765-667

NFL 2015 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Pats -5.5 over Chiefs

-Last week I took 3 underdogs, and hit 3 of 4 overall. The theme is a bit flipped this week. Wild Card rounds are growing odd because so many of the 5-6 teams are better than the lowers, especially the 4s. We saw both get killed this past weekend. This time however, the better teams are fresh and hosting at home. It is going to be hard to convince me to stray away from those teams. I just don’t bet against the Pats in the playoffs often. Sometimes if the point spread increases to unmanageable levels, but 5.5 points isn’t excessive. It comes down to Brady and Belichick, at home, laying less than a touchdown, versus Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Despite how beat up New England is (which at this point is overstated), I am sticking with Brady/Belichick.

Cards -7.5 over Packers

-I really like what the Packers did last week, and appreciate the .5 edge on the line. But I picked the Cardinals to go to the Super Bowl, the matchup between this team has been aptly showcased this season, and the Cardinals are just by far the more complete team. Kirk Cousins was inexperienced. Carson Palmer is anything but. I love the defensive playmakers the Cardinals have, and the overall depth and talent is much larger for Arizona. They remain my NFC Super Bowl pick.

Panthers -3 over Seahawks

-Seattle is probably a better team, let’s put that out there first. They can pass better, are tougher on defense (Carolina is no slouch), and I like their special teams and depth much better. But it is so difficult to play a game in Minnesota like they did, and then have to travel again, to the East Coast far away from their home. The record of teams playing tough physical playoff games and then turning around and doing it again and winning is pretty much nil. The Panthers are rested, ready, and have focused on this matchup for two weeks. I really think this results in a win for them, but it is a low confidence bet that I won’t be investing much in.

Steelers +9 over Broncos, DEN SU

-That is just so many points! Beat up Big Ben, Antonio Brown sitting out aside, 9 points is a lot for a playoff game. And since as a rule I don’t trust Peyton in playoff games, I’m taking those points. The Steelers will still be able to move the ball, and even though the Denver moneyline is probably the simplest bet here, I’m sensing a 20-16 game where those points will be vital.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 136-87

By Spread: 117-104

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 931-511
By Spread: 762-666

NFL 2015 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Texans +3.5 over Chiefs, HOU SU

-A couple of reasons here: 

1. JJ Watt being fully healthy is a game changing. Justin Houston not being fully healthy is impactful. 

2. Brian Hoyer being healthy makes a big difference. Jeremy Maclin being banged up make a huge difference. 

3. I trust Bill O'Brien, even in the playoffs. In no way do I trust Andy Reid. Especially in the playoffs. 

4. At home, getting 3.5 points? I know KC is on a roll, but look at that schedule. Texans have had a tougher road to get here. 

Bengals +2.5 over Steelers, CIN SU

-Second time here, I'm taking the points. It may become a theme. The Steelers are that team that "no one wants to play" but there are now expanding holes in that argument. First, the Steelers have these mental hiccups every three weeks or so. Second, Tomlin hasn't been a good coach or had playoff success in about 5 years now. Third, Ben turns into a turkey every fifth game or so, and has had some curious decisionmaking down the stretch that makes me question what exactly his injury status is. Fourth, the running game is in a bad place for the Steelers with Deangelo out. Time for Cincy to drop all the linebackers, every play, and see Pittsburgh try to win it all going deep. Maybe they can. More likely, Cincy's offense dinks and dunks, each back gets close to 18 touches each, and AJ torches them as per usual. In AJ I trust. 

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks, SEA SU

-I am taking Seattle to win, don't get me wrong. But the Vikings have exactly the type of team to copy the Rams blueprint and smash Seattle in the mouth. If it becomes a shootout, the Rams don't have a chance. But if it is kept close, and the Vikings can occasionally hit receivers down the seem and between the numbers deep, they can cover and even perhaps win. 

Packers +1.5 over Ethnic Slurs, GB SU

-Respect to Washington for a pretty good regular season. Ditto to Kirk Cousins. However, this isn't the regular season. I know Green Bay has looked bad at times. So has Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. But I still trust them over untested Cousins and Jay Gruden. Green Bay isn't afraid of the road, won't have issues with weather, and has the best QB on the planet (yes, still). James Jones has an old man game, and somehow grits out 8 for 80 and 2 TDs. Rodgers makes two or three "Aaron Rodgers!" plays and they advance. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 5-9

Record this year:

Straight Up: 134-85

By Spread: 114-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 929-509
By Spread: 759-665