NFL 2016 Week 20 Prediction

Week 20 Predictions:

Packers +5.5 over Falcons, 30-33

-I am so conflicted about this game as a pure pick. Strangely, I feel better about taking the points overall than the over or the true winner. On paper the Falcons should win this. They are healthier, more talented, at home, and had a better overall season. I am really afraid to pick against Aaron Rodgers. We are somewhere around Jedi Grand Master at this point with him, so the cover pick is a hedge. I also picked NE-GB Super Bowl, so it hard against just picking that game here to come full circle. But Atlanta, as upstart as they are, is a cleaner overall play to win straight up. This should be an awesome game, and a track meet.

Pats -5.5 over Steelers, 34-26

-I am throwing out their first match this year as it was early in the Brady reunion tour and Ben didn’t play. The Pats clearly had the better season, have been more even throughout, and have the better defense and a more even offense. I trust the Pats special teams more. The Pats are coming off an uneasy game, while the Steelers are riding a long win streak. However, the Pats were similarly coming off a long streak and shook off some rust last week as well as committed about as many errors as one can in one game. Tipped picks, fumble on kickoff, two penalties that extend opponent’s drives that end in points. There is no way that replicates going forward. The Pats are 16-3 at home in the playoffs in this era, they are 7-2 versus Pittsburgh in this era, they have the better defense and the better QB. Ben throws up a few bad balls each week and will do so again. Solid Pats win.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 150-93

By Spread: 127-114

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1094-609
By Spread: 901-787

NFL 2016 Week 19 Predictions

Week 19 Predictions:

Falcons -5 over Seahawks, 34-17

-Seattle has managed to have a productive season, get their wins and first round victory over lesser teams. It ends now. Earl Thomas’ absence hurts, it’s just that the teams they have faced haven’t been able to fully exploit it. The Falcons can and will. They should put up crazy passing stats and use spread back formations effectively. Seattle can score a little, but won’t be able to press and Wilson will make mistakes if behind. Falcons are a high confidence play here.

Pats -15.5 over Texans, 30-10

-I’m nervous about this line being so large. The Pats are 13-0 favored by more than 2 touchdowns in this era, but only 7-6 covering those games. However, in the playoffs there is a cutdown on cheap touchdowns late when a good team plays a bad one. I’m going to cautiously take the Pats to have a true blowout, especially with a bad young QB on the road. Brady will probably manage rather than explode, but Houston just can’t score productively on this team. My other favorite stat is that the Pats are 14-0 in games with Dion Lewis. He’s playing, so I guess we are good.

Packers +4.5 over Cowboys, 31-27

-I know. The Cowboys are better on paper, far healthier, and were dominant all year. They should be able to run all over the Packers. However, I am terrified to go FOR a team that has two rookies in their most vital positions. Zeke has a ton of carries on his body. And I am terrified to pick AGAINST Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing a Jedi mind trick each week. Packers continue their roll and upset the #1 seed.

Chiefs -1.5 over Steelers, 24-20

-Okay, okay. I hear the complaints already. I do have a personal bias against the Steelers and need to take that out. Here is my reasoning:

          a. Ben on the road last 16 games: 14 TDs, 17 INTs

          b. Ben at home last 16 games: 36 TDs, 12 INTs

          c. This game is on the road

          d. Andy Reid is 19-2 coming off a bye, 3-0 in the playoffs

So that’s really where I started, and nothing else I see makes me think this isn’t going to finish in a Chiefs win more times than not. So, I am going with the Chiefs to win and cover. And for those espousing the “take the better QB” philosophy, over their last 5 playoffs games spanning 2011-present:

a.     QB1 is 2-3, 1429 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs

b.     QB2 is 2-3, 1507 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT

QB 1 is Ben, QB2 is Alex Smith. I get it though, Ben is better overall and has had a better career. But for about 6 years now, and consistently on the road, Alex Smith has been better in the playoffs with lesser weapons and schemes. I’m taking the Chiefs.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 147-92

By Spread: 124-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1091-608
By Spread: 898-786

NFL 2016 Week 18 Predictions

Week 18 Predictions:

Hello friends. It has been an up and down season for me. I honestly considered not continuing this prediction column each week because of how busy my life has become, especially as I am back in school pursuing my doctoral degree. However, I have found this simple little space for predictions allows me to flex my writing muscles a little and lets me get out the snark somewhere other than my academic work. That’s probably better for all involved. I wish my results were more steady (I’ll take the last 60% of the season but not so much the first 40%), but it has been and helps center my football thoughts and determinations before they are applied elsewhere.

Another major reason I continued the column is that one of my major life goals is to find a way to finish a post season having picked it perfectly. 11 games up, 11 down, that’s the goal. Without the regular season to get me there, I wouldn’t feel right doing just the playoffs. So, here I am, staring at my goals. 11 games left in this season! Standing in my way of course, is this horrid set of round 1 matchups. I stared at a lot of these for far too long. Let’s go.

Texans -3.5 over Raiders, 20-10

-Okay, first, I have loved the Raiders all year. Seriously, go look, I’ll wait. I also really like Connor Cook. Really, I loved him in college in the past few years and had some financial confidence in him pushing MSU to some solid finishes and surprising wins. But I just can’t pick a rookie making his first ever start on the road in the playoffs versus a competent defense. Even with Brock, the Texans are fundamentally sound, will pound the hell out of the Raiders defense, and go after Cook. Texans, unfortunately, advance to the next round behind a big game from Lamar Miller, but you should take the under.

Seahawks -8 over Lions, 24-13

-On one hand, the Seahawks have been 30^th against the pass since Earl Thomas got hurt. That’s with folks like Colin K involved. This terrifies me, and this team won’t be getting to another NFC title game. However, I think it is enough for this week. Stafford hasn’t been the same since finger injuries occurred (go figure!). Seattle is still 7-1 at home, and has vets who have been here before. A running back named Zenner is intimately involved for Detroit. Detroit had to confirm a coach who is about to coach a playoff game who has a winning record over three years and a Super Bowl appearance with his last team will be back next year. Russell Wilson isn’t late 2015 Russell Wilson but he isn’t early 2016 Russell Wilson either. Seattle gets it done by 10, and go get plastered by Atlanta next week.

Dolphins +10 over Steelers, 20-23

Okay, first, not all 4 home teams can win. So, we can start there. Does this mean the Dolphins are the upset? I don’t know but someone has to do it. I think they have enough to keep it close. Did you know Pittsburgh ranks 10^th in offense (that’s way too low) and 10^th in defense (way too high)? Weird team, doesn’t match the optics or expectations. Fins also are a weird team to figure out. I think they can hit some deep ones here, know they need Ajayi to go off again and will feed him, and keep it close enough. Ben probably wins, but I won’t have investment in this game.

Packers -4.5 over Giants, 30-20

-The Giants took a day this week and went to party in South Beach. I mean, they didn’t start there, and aren’t playing the Fins later this week or something. New York to Miami to New York to Green Bay on a playoff week. I’m actually kind of disgusted. It’s like this a job for them, and they may not care as much as we irrationally do as fans! Justin Bieber was involved!

The Giants do have the exact right kind of defense to stop the Packers (red zone and 3^rd down efficiency). However, it’s Aaron Rodgers and he is back to just skinning people alive 9 seconds into a play that should have been over. If the Giants beat the Packers in Green Bay, I’ll officially be afraid of them. Until then, show it to me Eli. Beckham is going off here though for the record, even though I feel strongly about the Packers winning.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 7-9

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 143-92

By Spread: 121-112

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1087-608
By Spread: 895-785

NFL 2016 Week 17 Predictions

Week 17 Predictions:

Ravens +1 over Bengals, 20-17

-Ravens are mad about missing the post season and Cincy now is sitting a lot of players. This will probably be ugly to watch in either case.

Bucs -6 over Panthers, 24-17

-Bucs need this game, Panthers are shutting it down. Someone will need to explain Cam’s season to me in the offseason and convince me it won’t just be the same next season.

Texans +3 over Titans, 17-13

-The Matt Cassel effect. Texans don’t need this but tune up before the post season. I’d like to see Savage work through some more complex reads and route combinations.

Colts -4.5 over Jags, 27-20

-Colts boost their numbers in a meaningless game. Jags find a way to throw an INT to an official.

Pats -9.5 over Fins, 23-13

-I thought this game was going to be meaningless for the Pats and the Fins would need it to get in. Turns out it is the opposite. Pats light it up, Brady hunts the MVP through 3 quarters before sitting.

Vikings -5 over Bears, 20-13

-Well, it was a nice run of almost mediocrity from the Bears while it lasted. The Vikings could give the 9^th pick to Philly after this season if they lose. They started 3-0!

Jets +3.5 over Bills, 17-16

-What a shit show. I’m just taking the points.

Cowboys +3.5 over Eagles, 21-20

-Taking the points. If the Cowboys continue to play all of their starters like that though…they deserve an injury if they get one.

Steelers -6 over Browns, 24-12

-Good job Browns. Guess what is probably going to happen to you this week? Can someone get Joe Thomas to a winning team?

Falcons -7 over Saints, 38-30

-POINTS! Take this over. Brees wants to hit 5K again (he’s like 20 games from setting the overall record!), and the Falcons want their shot at the bye. Julio’s health worries me a bit as they head into the playoffs though.

The team that must not be named -7 over Giants, 27-19

-Giants say they will play their starters but can’t improve their playoff position. Washington is hungry, and Cousins wants 5K as well.

Raiders -1 over Broncos, 23-14

-I totally think the Raiders’ offense will be a mess. Despite that, the Broncos are completely a mess and may just be mentally done. The Raiders need this to ensure their bye.

Cards -6 over Rams, 25-9

-Rams, just get done with this game and look to rebuild for next year. Cards are still feisty.

Chiefs -5.5 over Chargers, 24-13

-Chiefs need it, Chargers are done and done.

Seahawks -9.5 over Niners, 20-10

-I’m only nervous about this game because the running back for Seattle may be Shaun Alexander. Chip’s last game?

Packers -3.5 over Lions, 30-20

-It’s been a great run Lions, but the magician may have run out of spare rabbits at the bottom of the hat. The magician is Jim Bob Cooter, to be clear. Or Matt Stafford. In which case the issue is his broken finger making him unable to reach cleanly into the hat. In any case, Aaron Rodgers has a better hat, and better rabbits. 

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 10-6

By Spread: 10-6

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 132-87

By Spread: 114-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1076-603
By Spread: 888-776

NFL 2016 Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 Predictions:

Giants -2.5 over Eagles, 20-13

-Giants are alive and their defense is fired up. Carson Wentz has had a positive rookie campaign but should focus on finishing it quietly and conservatively because it is off the rails a bit.

Bears +3.5 over Washington Professional Football Franchise, 24-23

-Bears are feisty and Matt Barkley might be an NFL quarterback who suddenly has a decent set of weapons. I’ll say, the Bears will be interesting to watch for next year if they can piece things together in the offseason. The Washington team remains inconsistent, and I don’t trust them.

Fins +3.5 over Bills, 24-20

-Fins are alive for a playoff spot and the Bills are deciding which week to fire their coach on. I understand its Matt Moore, but the points here are essentially free.

Bucs +3.5 over Saints, 31-30

-Confusing game because the Bucs just lost and the Saints won, but their playoffs odds are the inverse of that. Bucs getting points is too good of a boon, even if I don’t like them that much. Good over bet though.

Falcons -2.5 over Panthers, 31-26

-This would about end the Panthers season, and the Falcons keep the offense rolling. Panthers also had a short week and had to travel, and Cam isn’t 100% healthy.

Packers -6.5 over Vikings, 24-6

-Packers let the Bears come too close last week, but the Bears aren’t horrible. Vikings are about done and can’t really move the ball. Packers should bust this one open by margin, but I’d hit the under.

Pats -16.5 over Jets, 30-10

-Way too many points to lay, but still the probable result. Death by 1000 papercuts is the most likely strategy here.

Titans -5 over Jags, 27-17

-Titans continue to be underrated. Blake Bortles continues to throw ducks. 5 points? Insulting.

Chargers -6 over Browns, 23-12

-I really want to see the win for the Browns in their remaining games, but I don’t think that is going to happen.

Raiders -3.5 over Colts, 30-26

-Colts are riding high, Raiders are barely surviving…this is the exact kind of game the Colts give away.

Niners +3.5 over Rams, 13-10

-This has to be on television?

Cards +8.5 over Seahawks,

Seattle isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, and the Cards are feisty. It should be close enough for the cover.

Texans -1.5 over Bengals, 17-13

-Savage can’t be worse than Brock. AJ Green coming back will be nice for the Bengals, but the Texans are alive for a playoff spot.

Ravens +5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Ravens are a tough gritty team that battles back. Steelers are much better at home but still not quite the team their reputation and record suggests. Jimmy Smith’s presence means a lot to the ability to cover Steelers’ receivers though.

Chiefs -4 over Broncos, 20-13

-Weather may affect this, but even still the Broncos haven’t been good for a while. Chiefs grit this one out, and probably find some of their running game again too.

Lions +7.5 over Cowboys, 20-22

-That’s a half point too many against a Cowboys team that isn’t super sharp right now.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 12-4

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 122-81

By Spread: 104-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1066-597
By Spread: 878-770

NFL 2016 Week 15 Predictions

Week 15 Predictions:

Rams +14 over Seahawks, 9-17

-That’s too many points for these painful Thursday night games.

Fins -2.5 over Jets, 17-10

-Even with Matt Moore, this is about a team still alive versus a team ready to implode.

Giants -5 over Lions, 20-10

-The Stafford injury scares me.

Ravens -6 over Eagles, 20-13

-Eagles are about done, and the Ravens are going to be mad coming off that loss at NE.

Packers -6.5 over Bears, 31-13

-Layup/tease candidate of the week. Barkley has played well enough to deserve an extended look for next year though, no joke.

Colts +4.5 over Vikings, 17-19

-Vikings can’t score well enough to lay 4.5 to anyone at this point.

Bills -10 over Browns, 20-6

-Looking more and more like the Browns are not going to win a game this year. Not sure they care. If the Bills lose this game, it might be time for Rex come Monday morning.

Titan +5.5 over Chiefs, 21-20

-Go ahead. Keep underestimating the Titans. I’ll wait on the bandwagon.

Texans -6 over Jags, 20-13

-This Texans team isn’t good but they are alive. The Jags are about ready to be done for the year.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 26-24

-Bengals playing a good spoiler lately, might be getting AJ back, and the Steelers aren’t the same team on the road.

Cards -2.5 over Saints, 30-27

-Saints are oddly quiet on offense recently, and the Cards keep fighting at least.

Falcons -13.5 over 49ers, 31-10

-Blowout city, and Matty Ice gets to race Brady for the MVP. They’d be better keeping Julio out to get him fully ready for the final two games.

Pats -3 over Broncos, 27-13

-Does it make sense the Pats are going this with no pass rush, bad TO margins, and no deep threats? No. Am I going to pick against them right now? No. Do the Broncos feel like a good team to me, despite how they look on paper? No. And there we are.

Raiders -3 over Chargers, 31-22

-I just hope Carr’s finger is okay. That cold game at KC clearly hurt him. The 10 days and the plum opponent should right the ship for the Raiders.

Bucs +7.5 over Cowboys, 23-24

-That’s a lot of points for a hot team versus a team that has been shaky for about 3 weeks now.

Ethnics Slurs -4.5 over Panthers, 27-20

-Washington needs this to make a run, and something is still wrong with these Panthers.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-6

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 110-77

By Spread: 95-90

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1054-593
By Spread: 869-763

NFL 2016 Week 14 Predictions

Week 14 Predictions:

Raiders +3 over Chiefs, 28-26

-I clearly just don’t understand something here. I get the Chiefs are winning. But the Raiders are a better team by record and are winning decisively. I am taking the free points here.

Steelers -2 over Bills, 24-17

-I wish I could do something else, but this makes sense.

Chargers +1.5 over Panthers, 31-27

-Two crashing teams. One I trust more than the other. Rivers probably more likely to remember his tie than Cam. This is vital.

Bengals -6 over Browns, 21-10

-Gotta respect that the Bengals aren’t giving up. I hear RG3 may start for the Browns. That’s tantamount to giving up.

Lions -7.5 over Bears, 27-12

-Stafford’s an MVP candidate. Absolutely. This could be ugly for the Bears.

Colts -6 over Texans, 30-13

-Texans may not win again this year. Colts, for all their flaws, can go into domes versus flawed teams late in the season and throw up 30. That’s enough.

Viks -3 over Jags, 17-13

-This will (or should) be an easy, take care of business win. Let’s see it Bradford.

Fins -1 over Cards, 24-16

-Cards have been so inconsistent this year, and the Fins are still alive for a playoff spot. I will give the Dolphins a pass for last week, especially because I think the Ravens are very good.

Ethnic Slurs pk over Eagles, 28-20

-Eagles are going the wrong way. Cousins can get points on the board. Is he the new Brees? Do we just have to accept he’s good? I’m not sure I’m there yet, but I will take this game.

Titans -1 over Broncos, 24-16

-The Titans can, and arguably should win this game. And it will surprise people anyways. Mariota is a hot young QB. You can run on the Broncos and the Titans have 3 different ways to run down your throat. I like this pick.

Jets +3 over Niners, 13-15

-Just taking the points in a game I’m picking so I don’t get fined.

Saints +3 over Bucs, 29-27

-Taking the points in a close game. If the Bucs win we have to consider them 50-50 to win the division with Atlanta. This is last gasps for the Saints, obviously.

Packers +2.5 over Seahawks, 31-23

-Seattle is having trouble running the ball and keeping the offensive line together. We cannot underestimate the loss of Earl Thomas. It is significant enough I am shying away from making Seattle my NFC pick anymore. Packers are at least throwing on an elite level again, and with Seattle’s condition and the points I will take them here.

Falcons -6 over Rams, 27-10

-Oh, this could be bad for the Rams. I would feel bad for them, but they played the bad quarterback two months too long, and then gave the mediocre coach an unnecessary extension for reasons I don’t understand. They have brought all of this on themselves. The Falcons are going to move the ball and cause some big plays on defense.

Cowboys -3 over Giants, 24-14

-After what the Giants did last week, how could I pretend to like the Giants here? Cowboys are rested and rolling.

Ravens +7 over Pats, 26-27

-This will be a close game and no way am I laying that many point. The Pats have so many injuries and issues right now, and I really like where Baltimore is going. They are my favorite for the North, not Pittsburgh.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-5

By Spread: 7-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 100-71

By Spread: 86-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1044-587
By Spread: 860-757