NFL 2011 Week 6 Predictions

Well, that was a brutal week. But, I think it was a learning point. Specifically, I reached the breaking point with several teams. The Bengals, Raiders, and 49ers are distinctly average and not bad. They can beat bad teams and good teams that are disorganized. The Cardinals are just bad, and I am now facing up to that. The Eagles, Colts, and Chiefs I have long known to be terrible. The Texans and Steelers may make the playoffs but it won’t be impressive and will be wounded, flawed warriors when and if they get there.

So, let’s see how this goes this week, with perhaps some better understanding of teams.

Colts +7.5 over Bengals, 17-23

-Bengals win because they are slightly better and have an actual future in front of them this season. But 7.5 points? Let’s not get crazy.

Jags +12.5 over Steelers, 21-27

-Jags are not THAT terrible, and I think the Steelers are thoroughly mediocre. So a probable Steeler win but 12.5 is ridiculous for how games are going this year.

Eagles -1 over Skins, 24-17

-I really wish I could take the Skins. But Vick owns this defense. The Skins have lost the last two years coming off a bye. Rex Grossman. Ugh. So the Eagles win it. But wow, would this end the Eagles season right here and now.

Giants -3 over Bills, 24-20

-See, the Giants were bad last week and the Bills beat a great team. So I am going to pick the opposite of what that suggests. See, it is called “regression to the mean”.

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers, 21-17

-Falcons are not very good. But they are at least average and have some decent skill players. The Panthers are playing WAY above their heads right now, and while the Panthers may have another backdoor cover in their pockets, 3.5 is small enough a line I feel comfortable taking Matt Ryan at home. He is always good there and Roddy White is the healthiest he has been this year.

Lions -4 over 49ers, 31-14

-So I was going to take the upstart Niners, but then I remembered: A. Alex Smith, B. West Coast team coming east in a 1pm game, C. Detroit pass rush against Alex Smith and that offensive line in Detroit, and D. Calvin Johnson is not human.

Packers -15 over Rams, 34-10

-Yeah…..no. Rams need WRs to win. Also, health and skill would be helpful as well.

Raiders -6.5 over Browns, 22-13

-McFadden plays well, Browns are unable to run, and thus just cannot move the ball.

Ravens -8.5 over Texans, 27-17

-Seems like a cover situation. Then I remembered that there is no Andre or Mario. I also smell an Ed Reed pick six here.

Cowboys +7.5 over Patriots, 34-37

-Pats win but since they cannot stop anyone the Cowboys cover. Romo puts up an insane fantasy day with something like 400 yards, 3 TDs….and a crucial late turnover.

Vikings +3.5 over Bears, 21-23

-Bears win because they are home and just much better than the Viks. But Peterson keeps it close, and a Vikings cover is the smartest thing here because they could win outright.

Saints -5.5 over Bucs, 34-20

-I have all kinds of stats and examples to make fun of the last two Bucs games, and the fact that Josh Freeman was dropped in 3 leagues I am in. Blount isn’t playing. But, I am going to go with Bill Simmons’ comments: “Saints have scored 157 points this year. Bucs have scored 87.” That pretty much covers it, right?

Dolphins +7.5 over Jets, 14-20

-Jets win because they need this and Matt Moore is playing for Miami. But, I am taking the cover because despite the skill level differential this rivalry is intense and sometimes the records don’t matter.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 4-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 43-19

By Spread: 35-28

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 299-152
By Spread: 244-206

BLISS