2012 NFL Season Preview and Week 1 Picks
Change. This has definitively been
a year of change. I finished my graduate studies, and started a new job in a
new place. Likewise in the NFL, I have reflected that we have had a big year of
change. Peyton Manning, one of the players in NFL history most identifiable with
only one team, changed address. Tim Tebow, the biggest story of last year
numbers wise, changed teams. Heck, 45% of the Rams roster from 2011 is now out of the NFL (thankfully, but that is still a stunning number). The NFL has also had some major culture changes.
Holdouts happened, but were not rewarded. We now live in the post-Bountygate
era, but even that has changed in the last few days. Time will tell on that
change, of the ability to legally stand up to Roger’s absolute power. And of course,
we have a change in referees. This adjustment to our regularly scheduled
program may have long reaching effects into the season, but we will see.
Because I am a little rushed on time this year, here are my predictions more succinctly than usual.
AFC North:
Ravens 12-4
Bengals 10-6
Steelers 9-7
Browns 4-12
The Ravens have some areas that
they can slip in, sure. However, the Steelers have implosion written all over
them. The offensive line got worse if at all possible, Mike Wallace won’t be
Mike Wallace for a few weeks, ditto for Rashard Mendenhall and Big Ben already
has a damaged rotator cuff. The defense continues to age and Troy/Harrison has
to jump over the cliff at some point. The Bengals are about the same as last
year, just do it more consistently. And the Browns stink as usual, with a 28
year old rookie quarterback and a rookie RB who may well get to 3 knee
surgeries in 9 months by the end of the season.
AFC East:
Patriots 13-3
Bills 9-7
Jets 6-10
Dolphins 5-11
I have trouble seeing 3 losses on
the Patriots schedule, truly. They are a great team and also lucked out. The
defense will be better, and the offense the same, maybe even a little more
explosive. The Bills are sneaky good and that defense will be sharp. I wish
they had one more playmaker though, and something other than Chad Pennington 2.0
at QB. The Jets have the biggest implosion potential of any team, even the
Cowboys or Steelers. All the ingredients are there, and on top of it unlike the
Steelers and Cowboys, the Jets have exactly no playmakers. At all. It could be
rough over there. The Dolphins are a nice team, but they clearly said that they
are breaking it down to basics with their off season moves (Vontae and Marshall
out, Tannehill in). They also have few playmakers (put your hand down Davone
Bess, you don’t count).
AFC South:
Texans 11-5
Titans 7-9
Jags 6-10
Colts 3-13
The Texans win a weak division
easily, somewhat because they are good but mostly because each of the other
three teams will spend the year learning how to play and win and will be very
dangerous in 2013. Warning to the Texans now: I forsee a clear future where
they win this division now, but are 4th in 2013. Andre is getting
older, Foster never stays fully healthy, and the defensive stars are gone.
Locker, Gabbert, and especially Luck are coming for you Houston. Just not this
year.
AFC West:
Chiefs 9-7
Chargers 9-7
Raiders 8-8
Broncos 6-10
I have been simming out mini
seasons for many teams since I cracked open my copy of Madden 13. I have played
almost every team and played against many. And I really like the Chiefs. I
don’t want to like them, they have Matt Cassell still playing quarterback for
them after all. But their skill positions are solid with the addition of Hillis
and the return of JCharles, even if he is only 90% of what he was. The Chiefs
also played hard last year despite the Tyler Palko Experience, and losing so
many players due to injury. I remember the great game they played in taking
down the Pack. The Chargers will start slow (more than likely), get hurt
(already there), and go through organizational trama (Norv!), so while they are
good, I like the Chiefs to win this. The Raiders I dismiss because they have
Carson Palmer. The Broncos….are just not a good team. I would like Peyton to be
decent, I really would. But adjusted DVOA says they were a 5.8 win team last
year, not an 8 win team. The lost Tebow and Dawkins, and added Peyton. Nice
swap overall, but not even to propel them up and out of the basement of this
division. Whether he gets hurt or not is almost immaterial. He is terrible
outside anyways, and the team surrounding him isn’t good.
NFC East:
Giants 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Cowboys 9-7
Ethnic Slurs 6-10
I really don’t know here. This is
a slugging match. I think the Giants win this division because they have the
least crap going on behind the scenes, can run and throw, and can rush the
passer. I trust them to be decent and consistent. The Cowboys are starting off
well, but we all know that can’t stick. They have injury concerns, and drama
behind the scenes. The Eagles I just don’t trust. Vick gets older and older,
and will get hurt even more. I like Foles but that isn’t a great backup
situation. McCoy cannot replicate what he just did, neither can Babin and Trent
Cole. Washington will be okay, but they have Shanahan and that limits them.
Their secondary scares me. Also, this blog will continue the tradition of
ignoring their “nickname”, as it is an ethnic slur and really needs to be
changed. 2012 people, we are in the year 2012. I swear karma (and okay, their
owner), keep them artificially down year after year when at some point they
should be good.
NFC North:
Packers 12-4
Bears 11-5
Lions 11-5
Vikings 5-11
The Packers are built to rock the
regular season, no doubt about it. We’ll get to my post season picks for them
in a minute. The Bears I think will be very good with a healthy Cutler and
Forte. It is too bad about Johnny Knox, but the reuniting of Cutler with
Marshall should be awesome for fantasy owners and the Bears in real life. The
Lions will continue to be awesome, and I love the prediction I read on ESPN,
“Titus Young and Calvin Johnson combine for over 3000 yards, the first duo to
do that since Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce”. The Vikings actually aren’t bad, but
two things stand in their way. First, they play in the toughest division,
perhaps in sports right now. Second, their health. They will need to play into
shape and good health, and probably just won’t be able to get to a point where
they are serious competitors in the division. Maybe next year Vikings.
NFC South:
Saints 11-5
Falcons 10-6
Bucs 6-10
Panthers 6-10
A nice division. I was ready to
give it to the Falcons all the way through the summer, but the vibe around the
Saints is not what I expected. It is like the 2007 Pats after Spygate. I smell
a tremendous “eff you” season coming from Drew Brees and company. At the very
least, I sense a Madden like aggressiveness and desperation on every play.
Brees may legitimately press for 6000 yards passing. The fact that the Saints suspensions
were overturned recently is telling me that I am right. The Falcons are solid
and do well, but because of the North division probably don’t make the
playoffs. They do shift into a passing team however. The Bucs learn to play
together this year, and the Panthers take some steps forward (Cam works out
some kinks) while they take many others back (OL injuries, Steve Smith slows
down, etc).
NFC
West:
Cardinals
9-7
Seahawks
8-8
49ers
7-9
Rams
4-12
The
Rams are just immediately out. Injury concerns, new system, new coach, complete
lack of talent. They have nothing in terms of receivers at all, and let’s not
talk about the run defense. The Seahawks have overachieved for a few years now,
and have a rookie at QB. There is no way Lynch repeats what he did either, so
despite their good defense I think they fall short. So, I moved onto the Cards
and the Niners. I took the team with no QB over the team that was a muffed punt
from the Superbowl. But hear me out. The
Cards defense is legitimate. They have Patrick Peterson, who was the best non
QB in the entire NFL last year in terms of value added to team wins. Larry
Fitzgerald is still Larry Fitzgerald. And Skelton probably better than Kevin
Kolb. He won most of his starts last year, and there is something to that. I
like a lot of their pieces, and somehow, they pull off a division win. And an immediate
first round exit.
Playoff
Predictions:
AFC Teams: Pats, Texans, Ravens,
Chiefs, WC Bills, WC Bengals
NFC Teams: Giants, Packers,
Saints, Cards, WC Bears, WC Lions
AFC Title Game: Ravens over Pats.
Should have happened last year, did happen two years ago. Flacco takes the last
big step forward and becomes a Pro Bowl Quarterback this year.
NFC Title Game: Bears over
Packers. I think this matchup may happen in the second round, not the title
game. However, this pick more represents the fact that I think these are the
NFC’s two best teams. And while the Packers may be better I like how the Bears
play them year in and out. They can beat Green Bay, know it, and will apply the
Giants gameplan against them.
Super Bowl picks: Bears over
Ravens. For the third straight year, an NFC wild card makes the Super Bowl to
face an established AFC divisional winner. And for the third straight game a
tough game plan and some tough throws from a strong armed quarterback wins the
game. Ladies and gentleman, that’s right, Jay Cutler wins the Super Bowl. The
Bears have a solid defense, a new weapon in Brandon Marshall, and great special
teams. Devin Hester may be involved.
Statistical Picks:
Passing Leader: Drew Brees, almost
certainly. The Pats and Packers will compete in this race, but they will both
have their QBs sitting out games near the end. And Drew Brees is on a “screw you
all” campaign as Sean Payton sends him instructions via a fake yahoo email
account. Brees might get close to 6000 yards. A darkhorse candidate for this
would be Matt Ryan.
Rushing Leader: I’m going to go
with Ray Rice here. Foster is already hurt, I don’t believe fully in McCoy, Chris Johnson has a
rookie QB, MoJo isn’t going to get full carries for a while so there aren’t
many choices left. Even Forte, who I love, will split carries with Michael
Bush. DeMarco Murray is a dark horse choice.
Receiving Leader: Calvin Johnson,
the easy pick. But talent + opportunity would be hard to fight. And the other
candidates (Jennings, White, Welker) have competitors on their own teams. Outside
shot at this is AJ Green, he’ll get enough shots at it.
Rookie of the Year, offense: I am
going to go with Doug Martin, on pure opportunity. Luck and Griffin almost cancel out.
Rookie of the Year, defense:
Morris Claiborne, if for no other reasons than he will get a few picks on
national TV and that will do it.
Player of the Year, offense: Drew
Brees, on pure production. He might deserve MVP, but due to Bountygate, that
will not happen.
Player of the Year, defense:
Patrick Peterson. I think he has like 7 INTs, 75 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 return
TDs this year. Which, okay, technically wouldn’t count into DPOY discussion,
but you know it would anyways.
Most Valuable Player: Aaron
Rodgers. Boring, but it is the most sensible answer. Drew Brees is going to
make this interesting, but I really think the commissioner’s office would fight
to make sure no Saints takes home MVP this year. Rodgers will guide them to a
lot of victories and have great numbers. Maybe Brady lights it up so much he
makes a case for it, but he’s been there twice. A Darkhorse is hard to
identify, but I could see a scenario where Calvin flourishes, they lose
Stafford for a few games, and Calvin takes it up a notch. That might earn him
some votes. But that would be really hard to do. It might require 1800 yards
and 20 TDs.
Week 1 Picks:
ATL -2.5 over KC. KC is a nice team, but Atlanta is a solid team and KC will be working in multiple players just recovered from ACL tears and also new corners.
BUF +3 over NYJ. Stage one of
the NYJ meltdown occurs here. Buffalo burns the Jets big.
CHI -9.5 over IND. Luck is a
nice player, but most rookies QBs lose their first game, especially against
good teams while helming a bad one. Bears win big on a couple of defensive TDs.
MIN -3.5 over JAX. The
Vikings win a slugfest, and the matchup of the good Vikings pass rush versus
the bad Jags O-line is enough for them to pull it out.
HOU -12.5 over MIA. The
Texans easily take this game, though the 12.5 is high. See the CHI-IND game as
an example of an explanation why.
NE -4.5 over TEN. Yeah, why
is this a 4.5 point line? I just don’t get it. Young QB versus Belichick. I see
38-10 written all over this.
SD -1 over OAK. Yuck. Norv
versus Carson. More talent and discipline elsewhere gives the Chargers this W.
BAL -6.5 over CIN. Baltimore
just outmatches them, though AJ Green manages to have a nice game.
PIT -1 over DEN. I just
really dislike the Broncos, no explosion there. Might be like a 13-10 game
though.
GB -5 over SF. I solidly see
a double digit win by the Packers here. The 49ers just cannot keep up.
ARI -1 over SEA. Slugfest, but Fitzgerald helps them pull away. Might be time for one of those game changing Patrick Peterson plays too…
TB -1 over CAR. Balance and
discipline helps contain Cam, who really struggled down the stretch last year.
NO -9 over WAS. Saints rolls
Washington as they release 8 months of pent up, pissed off emotion. I wouldn’t
want to be Washington in this game.
PHI -9.5 over CLE. I don’t
like Philly, but Cleveland is pathetic. Brandon Weedon is involved.
DET -9.5 over STL. STL cannot
score. DET scores well. Questions? Thank you and drive through.
Record last week (referencing
my Super Bowl pick):
Straight Up: 0-1
By Spread: 0-1
Record last year:
Straight Up: 144-66
By Spread: 111-95
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 389-197
By Spread: 320-273
Straight Up: 389-197
By Spread: 320-273
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