NFL 2012 Week 3 Predictions

Well, that was pretty brutal. There were some really bad beats last week, including just brutal finishes for me in the NE-ARI game (I even picked Arizona to be good this year, can’t be mad at anyone but myself for trying to lay 14 with NE) and the PHI-BAL game (I just have no words. That was grounding....I just can't).

This is snapback weekend. We all overreacted about week 1 (how great NE, BAL, and NYJ were, and how bad CLE, CIN, and BUF were). Now, after week 2 produced for the most part opposite performances we readjust again snapping back to our preseason thoughts about these 1-1 teams. These teams are so schizophrenic; it is hard to try to find the truth about their identities. And funny enough, this weekend is almost not going to matter. One of Miami and the Jets are going to be 2-1, but both are going to finish under .500. The 49ers and Texans will both probably be 3-0, SD-ATL will produce a 3-0 and 2-1 team as will PHI-ARI. However, only the 49ers have a legit Super Bowl shot out of those 6, and I don’t even like that very much. One of NE and BAL will be 1-2 after tomorrow night, and I think both of those teams are in the conference title game.  

The records are nice but the sample size at this point is so small that I prefer to look at how the teams are playing and what long term implications are out there. One of the reasons I really like Arizona is that the defense is showing they are elite, and whenever they figure out a passing game the team will have the opportunity to be special. Philly is showing that they are injury and turnover prone, so despite their record so far I am confident that this is a team that will fall short later in the season. And finally, the Washington franchise is in trouble. People are being clouded by the allure of RG3. I don’t think he is a bad guy, I like him and his attitude quite a lot actually. But his ability to read defenses and react is far more limited than people are seeing. They are keeping it VERY simple for him, and defenses will react soon (STL did by the end of that game, and that’s STL for goodness’ sake). Washington also lost Carriker and Orakpo for the season, and I expect very little pass rush out of them going forward. Finally, Mike Shanahan is still involved. I am half expecting him to bench Alfred Morris and start Rex Grossman at QB so RG3 can play running back full time. This team isn’t that good anyways, so I expect Washington to start falling off soon. In fact, let’s just start right there…

Bengals +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-I continue not to buy RG3, and the losses of Carriker and Orakpo will spell doom for Washington’s season. Garcon is still hurt people, this just isn’t boding well. Maybe they should change their karma by changing their offensive name. Just saying.

Bills -3 over Browns, 20-13

-Probably a decently ugly game, but I don’t think the Browns can keep their offense producing as they did last week. The Bills win on a couple of Spiller breakaways. Fred Jackson…sorry buddy, you got unlucky with this situation.

Lions -3.5 over Titans, 31-13

-Yeah, no way Tennessee beats the Lions as they stare 0-3 in the face. They were in the playoffs last year. You have Jake Locker. Just, no.

Colts -3 over Jags, 17-13

-I officially believe in Andrew Luck in games like this. He is just better than the Gabbert, Kolb, Weeden, Locker, Alex Smith, Tannehill, Cassel, Ponder, Palmer, Sanchez, Russell Martin level of QB, and in most games that means I am taking the Colts (unless the team is great, like the Niners or Cards). Otherwise, this is just a matchup of bad teams, so Luck breaks the tie.

Chiefs +9.5 over Saints, 24-31

-The Saints likely won’t lose, but 9.5 is way too much. Chiefs cover on their now patented Bowe touchdown near the end. Don’t worry Dwayne, the fantasy owners among us appreciate it all the same. Saints offense produces in this one but it still isn't pretty. 

-Best Eliminator Pick (Saints will win, just not prettily)

Niners -6.5 over Vikings, 24-13

-Good team takes care of bad team. Nothing else to see here. Gore, Gore, Hunter, Gore, Davis, Gore, rinse, repeat.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -7 over Rams, 30-13

-Love the beginnings of a good Rams team, but they are going to be victimized by an angry Bears team that has had 10 days to both prepare and simmer on their loss to the Packers. This is also one of those “don’t bet the under” games because it is queued up for a kick return TD or an interception return.

Bucs +9 over Cowboys, 24-27

-Like the Chiefs/Saints game, this line is just too big. Cowboys win most times this game is played but the cover is the smarter play.

Falcons +3.5 over Chargers, 31-30

-Take the points, there are way too many of them. Take the over, it is sitting there for you. As for the winner? I have no idea. I trust Matty Ice, so I’ll go that way in a close game. And the Falcons, even with the Michael Turner situation, will have far more of their guys available.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 22-21

-Just win baby. The Cardinals are doing it ugly, but getting it done. I don’t trust the Eagles at all. The green birds are coming in hurt, turning it over like crazy, and the Cardinals are sitting there ready with that amazing defense. I think they blast the heck out of Michael Vick, and score enough themselves to win. Calling a Patrick Peterson score somehow in this “upset” pick. (Notice in how legitimizing this pick I didn’t use the term “Kevin Kolb”. Let’s not discuss it, okay?)

Texans -1 over Broncos, 24-13

-Texans continue to just take care of business. The Broncos are a nice team, but they aren’t elite. Texans overcome the fact that Manning is 16-2 against them, because this isn’t that set up anymore. Foster and Tate stretch out the game, keep Manning off the field, and help the Texans cruise through this game.

Patriots+1.5 over Ravens, 24-23

-It is just hard not to pick Tom Brady against Joe Flacco. It is hard to get around. Also, I like the Patriots because the Ravens defense isn’t that great. Maybe they can be productive, this time with a healthy Gronkowski and usable Ridley. Weird to think one of these teams is going to be 1-2. This should be a hard fought close battle either way. I would not be surprised at a 7 point Ravens win, but the Pats don’t lose back to back games very often, and the adversity tends to push them to big wins, so I will keep the faith with them.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-16

-Please people, don’t overreact. Dallas always gets shellacked in Seattle. The Packers are still the Packers and will score easily on them. 3 points is nothing. Jennings’ health is a concern, but Seattle has Braylon Edwards involved, so…

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 6-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 18-12

By Spread: 14-15

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 407-209
By Spread: 334-288

MIKE