NFL 2012 Week 5 Predictions and Rankings

The byes are here, and with it the marking of a quarter gone of the season. The NFL season always flies by rapidly, and you get so little of it where you have figured teams out and the teams are also ALL playing for something. In some ways, weeks 5-12 are the weeks where you get PURE football. In weeks 1-4 people are trying, but we understand teams are adjusting to new schemes, new players,  and new circumstances. By week 13 major injuries have taken their toll, and some teams are either way out of it or resting for the playoffs. So I say, enjoy this time while we have it.

Top 6

1. Atlanta – I have simply seen the best team in football in the Falcons. Matt Ryan is doing his best Aaron Rodgers 2011 impersonation, and it is working. But their win over Carolina, late, was what convinced me.

2. Houston – I said to a friend that as good as Houston looks, and they do, a Falcons-Texans Superbowl goes down like the Packers-Steelers Superbowl. The teams are set up the same way, and I think the Falcons would just score too much.

3. Baltimore – I feel wary about this, but I picked them to make the Superbowl, and they did win 3 of 4 games in 18 days. There are holes here, but I believe in Flacco.

4. San Francisco – I don’t believe, but have to give respect. They have owned it in their 3 wins. The loss however is troubling.

5. Chicago – My Superbowl pick went 3-1 in the first quarter, and while people might be booing this ranking, really look at the stats and tell me this isn’t a pretty dang good team. Love the Defense, Special Team, Home Field, banged up division, and the offense has real potential moving forward. They have the best defensive DVOA at -24.8%. Better than Houston people. This team is for real.

6. New England – I oscillated between this team and the Cardinals, who I have unapologetically loved. But right now I do believe NE is better, and that will also be true down the road. A strong argument can be made for them being 4-0 right now. Arizona is a great story, but FootballOutsiders still has NE with the 3^rd best chance at winning the Superbowl at 15%, and their offense is number one at 33.2% and it isn’t close (Baltimore is actually second at 21% followed by Houston. Atlanta surprisingly is 7^th).

Bottom 6

27. Tampa Bay – I would love to believe that they aren’t bad. But then they go out each week and play badly. Not much else to say.

28. Kansas City – I really thought they would be better, and I have little choice but to put them here. QB needs to be addressed. Matt Barkley might fit here…

29. Indianapolis – This will be a feisty team but a bad one. The health problems of the coach are sad, but also probably likely to cause the team to fall apart. Make the entire season about getting Luck looks at every situation possible.  

30. New York (J) – I only list the Jets this high because they do have 2 wins. But this team is about to just fall over and die. They have little talent, lost their good players, and in that market the pressure is going to erupt. Tebow time soon.

31. Jacksonville – Just not enough there, though I don’t hate the pieces. Take out the back to back miracle plays this season, and they are a REALLY bad team but record and stats.

32. Cleveland – I’m sorry Cleveland, I’m just very sorry. Who is going to laugh when they take a QB number 1? Maybe this one will be 32 years old when they draft him.

Quick Picks:

Cardinals -1.5 over Rams, 17-15

-Arizona forces 5 field goals. Absolutely no one watches this game. I am extremely excited.

Falcons -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-17

-I have made myself extremely clear on these teams. Let’s move on.

Packers -7 over Colts, 31-14

-Prime for a blowout because of the circumstances on both sides. Sorry Colts, truly, but this one could be ugly.

Giants -9 over Browns, 28-10

-There are many reasons. But mainly, can Brandon Weeden produce 28 points? That’s what I thought. Move along.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bengals -4 over Dolphins, 23-13

-No repeat for Tannehill. Bengals are able to move the ball consistently, and AJ Green owns again. Concerned for the Law Firm here though.

Ravens -5 over Chiefs, 31-17

-Ravens bury Cassell, who gets pulled for Brady Quinn. Ed Reed gets a pick six.

Bears -5.5 over Jags, 24-10

-Bears defense versus Blaine Gabbert. I’m excited.

Patriots -7 over Broncos, 34-24

-Take the over, just do it. Pats cover because they dare Manning to play deep, and he can’t do it. Pats will move this ball, and the TEs have big games (whoever they are this week).

Texans -8 over Jets,

-See “Niners-Jets Week 4”. Same thing. Downhill slide continues.

-2^nd best eliminator pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-5

By Spread: 5-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 33-23

By Spread: 27-28

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 422-220
By Spread: 347-301

MIKE