2017 NFL Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

Let’s review last year, shall we? I have added the Super Bowl, which I got correct, into my year end stats.

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1097-609
By Spread: 903-788

Well, that could have been worse. I increased both lifetime marks in terms of distance from .500, but my win percentage didn’t really get any better. I will try to do better this year, and my problem tends to be these early weeks. I think I think I know more than anyone thinks they should know this year, and overthink. So, I am going to try to go simpler until more data reveals itself.

Pats -8.6 over Chiefs, 34-17

-Pats cover at home celebrating a title, both teams having suffered a major injury to an offensive player and the Chiefs still starting Alex Smith at quarterback for some reason. Also, the Chiefs have never won at Gillette, have lost 5 of 7 against NE, and Dion Lewis is still 17-0 as a Patriot with an average per game victory margin in those 17 wins of +17. Good enough for me.

Bills -9 over Jets, 17-6

-The night is dark and full of terrors. Some of them are named Peterman, Hackenberg, and McCown. McCoy gets like 35 touches and this is painful to watch on the 7^th screen at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Falcons -7 over Bears, 27-17

-What is this, the “oh, Falcons got the hangover lower the line” Vegas adjustment? Hit the 7 before it tips to .5.

Bengals -3 over Ravens, 20-16

-Home field plus unsure about the health of Flacco.

Steelers -9 over Browns, 24-10

-You are doing this right Browns, just one more year.

Cards -2 over Lions, 30-27

-I somehow have Stafford and Palmer going in multiple leagues, and also the Cards defense. No good. Cards are a more complete team, and the RB comparison is way out of whack. Also, we are starting the year off with a 2 Vegas? Way to pick a solid number and stay with it.

Texans -5.5 over Jags, 20-10

-….And then they give me 5.5. Higher Vegas, it should have been higher. Blake Bortles is intimately involved.

Raiders +2.5 over Titans, 27-24

-A lot of respect given to the Titans here. This should be an awesome game: It is the preview of my AFC Semifinals. Titans are still a growing team however and Oakland should do well throwing the ball.

Ethnic Slurs +1 over Eagles, 26-24

-No idea, taking the home team with the more established quarterback. Even if he did sign a 1 year deal because God told him to.

Rams -3.5 over Colts, 17-12

-Okay, unpopular opinion alert: The Colts should rest Luck as long as it takes. This team may not be good. Gore might be done. They are thin all over the place, and light. They have young guys not ready yet and old guys about to end who need to come off the cap. Maybe a mini reset is needed. Second unpopular opinion alert: I like Jared Goff still, and think the Rams are going to be sneaky, like 2015 Raiders, good before a leap the next year. The door still over there? Great, I’ll be over there.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-23

-Can you believe the Fail Mary was 5 years ago? Or that the Seahawks somehow got another elite defense front 7 guy for little conveyance? Or that Richard Sherman is somehow still on this team? Or that Aaron Rodgers will Aaron Rodgers this game for them? Yeah, that last one I am actually easily on board with.

Panthers -5.5 over 49ers, 27-14

-It’s kind of like the Browns. One more year, doing it the right way Niners. Might need to try to develop a young QB though. Newton might not even need to push himself here, though it’ll be exciting to see Christian M and how he is used.

Giants +4 over Cowboys, 23-20

-Giants spent the offseason quickly adding defensive and offensive weapons, and the Cowboys spent it getting arrested, suspended, and not looking hard enough at natural regression for Zeke and especially Dak. Taking the points here.

Buccaneers & Fins – Best wishes to the residents of Florida and those affected by the current storm systems.

Saints +3.5 over Vikings, 30-23

-Saints love MNF, Saints love in door facilities, Saints had Brees spending the offseason cooking up new ways to get randos 1000 yards so he’ll get to 5K again. I also still don’t trust Sam Bradford.

Chargers +3.5 over Broncos, 24-16

-You need a quarterback, and I’m still not sure Pro Bowler Trevor Siemien is the answer. Yeah, that happened, look it up. I love the Chargers a little bit, they got the QB in Elway mode, and a juiced-up pass rush. 

2017 NFL Season Predictions

Hello friends,

          For about the third year in a row, I debated not writing about the NFL season again. The PTB know that I have plenty to do, most of it writing related. I even have a doc class right now that includes essentially daily journaling. But, I can’t resist. I need to keep my streak going. This is my 9^th year writing this thing. It has kept my sanity through jobs and school, and helps me reset my brain each week in preparation for fantasy matchups and *friendly* wagers with friends and family. I look forward to the day when I can write at more length and with extended mirth, but for 2017, this will again be abbreviated but authentic football analysis and internal dialogue spout onto a blog post. Enjoy.

MIKE

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots – I mean, two of the teams gave up already and the one that is trying signed Jay Cutler.

AFC North – Steelers – I hate this, but the infrastructure for the Bengals is declining.

AFC South – Titans – Don’t trust the QB situation anywhere else. Hurts to say that about Luck though.

AFC West – Raiders – Been on the bandwagon for two years. Hanging on until further notice.

AFC Wild Cards – Ravens on the strength of a great defense and Chargers with a good QB, decent weapons on the outside finally, and two good pass rushers.   

AFC Championship – Patriots over Titans.

NFC East – Giants – Eli will remain inconsistent but that defense is going to be awesome.

NFC North – Packers – Aaron Rodgers is involved and is the best football player on the planet.

NFC South – Panthers – Uneasy about this division but the Bucs and Falcons both scare me.  

NFC West – Cardinals – I have a good feeling about this team. Palmer was just fine last ten games of last year, the narrative isn’t exactly right there.

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks because of the gross talent, and Falcons because it will be hard not to score a lot of points and the defense will get better than last year.

NFC Championship – Packers over Cardinals.

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots – Would have flipped this a few days ago, but the Pats are thin along the ends of both lines all of a sudden. Packers quietly reloaded with a bunch of young guys and are my pick here.

Awards

MVP: Tom Brady.

-Even without Edelman, they are going to score so many points and the narrative loves him here.

OPY: David Johnson

-1K+1K in play. 20 TDs also.

DPY: Joey Bosa

-20 sacks in play, and the defense should rise in notoriety and effectiveness.

ORY: Dalvin Cook

-Opportunity based pick.

DRY: Myles Garrett

-Browns may be a little better on defense than we think. Was also thinking about Solomon Thomas.

COY: Belichick

-I mean, it’s like Popovich. They should win every year. But they rarely do. 

NBA 2016-2017 Predictions: The Finals

After 9 days of no basketball that may have led me to download one of those terrible apps to shoot baskets paper toss style and download Fultz included Celtics rosters on 2K, we are finally at the NBA Finals. I have been on the Warriors all year, which I know is not a unique position. I have seen people all week try to find ways to talk themselves into Cleveland, working on the Lebron and MJ narratives. The truth is, 538 and Pelton and the majority of the experts are probably right and the Dubs are going to roll them. This Warriors team should have beaten this Cavs team in 5 last year. The Cavs treaded water or got worse (Korver, Fyre, DWilliams are worse defensively than those they replaced), and the Dubs replaced Harrison with Durant. Check please, drive through. I’ll spare the suspense and call Warriors in 5 games.

I like to find similarities in other, previous Finals matchups: they typically help me see past the headlines of the day. To me this series recalls Spurs-Heat II. The Spurs should have won in game 6 the year before, they came back the next year quieter in the regular season but focused on the playoffs and blew the doors off the end of the Heatles run. I think the similarities best work for this series. It is the rematch in which the SF position on the better team got better (Kahwi improving similar to the Durant signing), and the rest of the team is focused and wants revenge. It comes down to positional matchups. Last year Cleveland won at PG and SF. Kyrie torched a hurt Curry and Lebron was uncontainable. Curry is now healthy, they will have a better plan for Kyrie, and Durant is the best possible matchup to play Lebron on defense and influence the game on an elite level on offense ameliorating James’ impact. Like the Spurs three years ago, I think the Warriors are a whirling, incisive, back door cut hitting, DHO machine. Cleveland is able to score, but their defense has only improved to the level of competition they have.

There are some questions for the Dubs. Iggy may not be fully healthy, and Clark/McCaw/Zaza don’t inspire confidence. However, I really think Curry, Klay, Durant, Draymond play 40 minutes each and they don’t have to use anyone else for more than 20 unless Iggy is healthy and they want to. Cleveland however has to either get full minutes from JR or play combinations of Frye-DWill-Korver in lineups that will get gashed defensively. At the end of the day there are pick and roll combinations of Curry/Durant and Curry/Dray that can be unleashed with Kyrie/Love defending and that are going to be disastrous for Cleveland. I hope the contests will be exciting, but it will likely be short.

NBA 2016-2017 Predictions: Round 3

East:

2. Cavs over 1. Celtics in 6 games

-I oscillated between 5 and 6, but ended at 6 because the Cavs will be at home for game 6 instead of 5. I think Cleveland splits in Boston, gets both at home, then loses 5 before beating Boston in 6. Cleveland is just a far better team. Their three point shooting from every position is better than Boston, and Boston is going to get eviscerated on the boards. I love Horford in almost any scenario, but I honestly don’t know how he can be effective here like he was in the first two rounds. Unlike Gortat, Love and Thompson are mobile enough to follow him out to the perimeter, move their feet enough to stay with his drives, and the other will still be under the rim to rebound. I actually think IT will do okay because of the lack of rim protection for the Cavs, but Lebron is going to be guarded by Crowder and (gulp) Jaylen Brown who won’t be able to hold him. This is a better matchup for Isaiah though, because Avery will surely be on Kyrie and IT can hide maybe on Shumpert, Korver, etc. The Celtics 4 spot is going to get exposed though, and 5 games is well within reason. The Celtics only chance to win the series is that they are sharp while Cleveland got rusty (unlikely), and their bench kills Cleveland’s (possible). It also feels like Marcus Smart versus JR Smith ends in someone doing something stupid.

West:

1.  Warriors over 2. Spurs in 5 games

-I know game 1 already happened, but I had this before. I hate the NBA starting one round before all the games in the last happened. The Spurs had their chance, and both lost it and Kawhi. The Jedi Octopus is likely to miss game 2, which means >95% chance Golden State now blasts them off the court and takes command of the series. Golden State worked off its rust, and the scary part is Klay is due for some better games in a row. This could be a sweep, but I trust in Pop to get at least one, probably game 3. This is just too much for young folks like Simmons and Anderson to really hang with each game, or Manu to keep up productive minutes. Patty Mills is also going to get taken advantage of. Pop, I love Gasol too, but I don’t think he can play in this series if you want a chance to win.

Nothing really has changed long term. 538 has the Dubs at 84% to win the title, and even if Iggy is more hurt than a game to game status I’d say that’s right. It’s almost unfair because the playoffs are getting good with good ends to SA-HOU and WAS-BOS, but likely Golden State will walk away with the title fairly easily. 

NBA 2016-2017 Second Round Predictions

East:

4. Wizards over 1. Celtics in 6 games

-This is the prediction I made before the series started and obviously, I would change it now. I was between Wizards in 6 and Celtics in 7 before the series started. Injuries to Wall, Gortat, and especially Markieff Morris have changed that more so than the Celtics game 1 win. It is bad to lose a game you have a 16-0 lead in. Giving up two quarters of 150+ offensive rating suggests they aren’t going to be able to stop the Celtics in this series, and with no bench depth they are going to get killed on second units. More likely Celtics in 5 at this point.

2. Cavs over 3. Raptors in 6 games

-I want to pick the Raptors, but just can’t do it. I like Kyle Lowry much better than Kyrie, but man, I can’t support that with their respective playoff histories. There still is no one to adequately cover Lebron. The Cavs move the ball better on offense than Toronto does. I’m not sure if Jonas can stay with Tristan. And again, Lebron. Ugh.

West:

1.  Warriors over 5. Jazz – sweep

-Not even a discussion. Jazz are tired and beat up, Warriors are ready to go. Gobert would have to be super mobile to even make this close, and he’s not. Brooms.

3. Rockets over 2. Spurs in 6 games

-I respect the hell out of the Spurs, especially Kawhi. They do have one strong quality for this series in 2 plus wing defenders. However, the defense at the PG position for the Spurs is only okay, and the defense for the center spot is poor. The Rockets are going to find ways to slip past them, isolate Harden on Mills or Parker, and get Pau and Lee in space trying to guard Anderson out to the three-point line or keep Capela from catching lobs and finishing over them.

NBA 2016-2017 Round 1 and Awards

Okay, let’s get the end of year awards out of the way. The ballots are all in, but for some reason the NBA is not telling us who won until two months from now. You know how MLB is the only sport that waits an excruciating amount of time to tell us who won, draining all interest and angst from knowing? The NBA is copying this and denying us the massive “pissed off” ness in the first round from whoever doesn’t win between Westbrook and Harden. Might as well start right there.

Most Valuable Player:

I am going to cheat. I am voting for Harden but the MVP is Kawhi Leonard. He plays defense, all the time. Kawhi has upped his scoring average every year of his career, by 4 points this year over his All NBA performance last year. Kawhi has the most wins of the 4 folks seriously up for this award. His team lost the greatest power forward of all time last year, and didn’t miss a beat. They won 60 games, again. He had numerous “moments”. Kawhi won’t win though, because defense isn’t sexy. I would be ecstatic if he did.

Assuming this comes down to Westbrook and Harden, I’m voting for Harden. Harden took a team with a similar preseason prediction to OKC’s and won almost ten more games than Westbrook did. He made the whole machine go, with a new coach and several new players. Harden had more total points scored and created than Westbrook. The Rockets are contenders, and OKC really isn’t. Honestly to me this isn’t close. Westbrook’s triple double stats are great, much respect. But this is like Nash over Kobe ten years ago. I stand by that decision, and the same logic applies here.

Side note, I’d have Curry over Lebron for the 4^th spot. Curry’s stats are about what they were two years ago when they won, Lebron’s team imploded in the second half of the season, and Curry’s team won 67 games for the third straight season with some tough depth issues and missing his next best player for a quarter of the season. Curry hit 300 3s in a down season. Give the man respect.

Defensive player of the year:

-I am torn between Kawhi, Draymond, and Gobert. Kawhi remains the man I am most scared of, the player if I had to defend someone from scoring a basket to save my life I’d call. But his advanced stats are weird and he’s probably decreased his defense 5% this year while upping his offense 20%. Gobert probably deserves it most this year specifically. He’s a monster. I feel like Draymond is going to win it and probably should have sometime over the last few years. I’ll take Gobert, Draymond, Kawhi in that order.

Rookie of the year:

-It’s Saric. I hate that, and that comes from someone who actually really likes Dario. That’s my guy in 2K. But his season wouldn’t get all rookie first team in some years. But he had a full log of games, impacted his team, and facilitates actually scoring the ball and making others better. Brogdan was my second. He was very solid, and contributed to a playoff team which has value for me. But he more kept the fort tidy than built it up. Embiid is first in a per game basis so far and away over either of them, but 31 games just doesn’t cut it, especially because in some ways he’s a third year player.

Sixth Man of the Year:

-Andre Iguodala. It was Eric Gordon but he played in a pattern where I don’t think he was a true sixth man, and he trailed off anyways. Iggy came on strong the back half of the season. To me, the Warriors are THE WARRIORS when Iggy is doing his thing. I can’t wait to see it full time in the playoffs again.

Most Improved Player:

-Giannis. Let’s just move on.

Coach of the Year:

-It’s Mike D’Antoni. NY and LA were bad stops where he couldn’t do his thing. In Houston he could do his thing and Harden went from a selfish scoring guard to doubling his assist total and finishing top 2 in MVP at worst as the distributor for a top 10 all-time offense. Much respect to Pop and Spo. I don’t like Erik that much, but what he did this year was great.

Executive of the Year:

-Daryl. Come on, the coach and Gordon/Anderson. He remade a culture that was positive and made it electric, and removed Dwight’s stink to make it happen.

All NBA:

1^st team-

Westbrook

Harden

Kawhi

Lebron

Gobert – Wins over full stats

2^nd team-

Curry

Thomas

Giannis

Durant – I was so close to the missed games pushing him to the third team. But the last three games helped him get to 62 total, and his defense and general game helped the best team win 67 games overall. Career high in rebounds and blocks.

Anthony Davis – Still giving him the benefit of the doubt these are not empty stats.

3^rd team-

Wall – Tough for him not to be second team, great year.

DeRozan – Respect to a top tier team that was kept afloat while Lowry was out. I know the advanced stats don’t love him, but great year. Respect to Brad Beal and Klay Thompson.

Butler – A monster.

Draymond – Defense and bringing it every night. Respect to Gordon Hayward. Not much respect to Paul George (got to bring it all year my friend).

Gasol – Defense and wins count folks, and he stretched his game out to 3.

Okay, here we go for round 1!

East:

1. Celts over 8. Bulls in 5 games

-Prime time Wade/Rondo/Butler are going to be more annoying that the Celtics are going to want, but the depth isn’t there and spacing is going to be issue quickly here.

2. Cavs over 7. Pacers in 5 games

-Paul George is going to not love Lebron in about a week. And then going to not love missing 40 million dollars a few weeks after that.

3. Raptors over 6. Bucks in 5 games

-I feel bad for this matchup: the Bucks could have made hay elsewhere. This is a good matchup for the Raptors and they should quickly take care of business.

4. Wizards over 5. Hawks in 6 games

-The Wizards can do this the easy way (if Atlanta is not healthy) or the hard way (if Atlanta is ready to go), but overall the talent difference in the backcourt is too much.

West:

1.  Warriors over 8. Blazers – sweep

-If Nurkic was healthy, maybe Blazers make it more interesting. Lilliard and McCollum are great and the class of most backcourt matchups around the league. Golden State is the one that outclasses them. Oh, and then Durant versus Evan Turner. This team is almost unfair.

2. Spurs over 7. Grizzlies – sweep

-More like last year than 4 years ago. Grizzlies just can’t score in this series.

3. Rockets over 6. Thunder – 5 games

-I really believe the lack of spacing and lack of scoring for the Thunder will rear its head in this series. The Rockets can create its offense just fine, but once some scheming is done for Westbrook the OKC offense will falter.

5. Jazz over 4. Clippers – 7 games

-I am really excited to watch this. I am worried a bit because of the health of Hood and Favors, but the Jazz are a nice mix of young (Hayward, Gobert) and experienced (Joe Johnson, Diaw, Hill). The Clippers find a way to lose every year despite top flight talent. It might be time to blow this up LA.

Title Picture:

-Golden State should be the prohibitive favorite again. I would say the true contenders are GS, HOU, SA, CLE, and TOR. I actually might favor TOR over CLE at this point assuming the team keeps coming together so nicely. They are now very experienced and have added a very experienced piece in Ibaka. Happy playoffs everyone.

Bliss - Orsi^2 2017 Baseball Board Bets

Bliss: You wouldn’t believe how many people have asked where the Bliss Orsi Board Bets have gone.

Matt: None. Zero people. That’s how many have asked about the Bliss Orsi Board Bets.

Chippy: I believe that. I haven’t been involved. You two haven’t done this for a few years. No one said anything.

Bliss: Hey!

Matt: We didn’t even do a results column the last time. How do people know what happened?

Chippy: THAT I’m sure they don’t care about.

Matt: They do already know we don’t get things right.

Bliss: I probably won’t even post this for a like a week after we complete the picks. Doctoral program and all.

Chippy: Oh good, time for you to cheat and change predictions after you see a few games.

Bliss: That’s a lot of effort. I’m leaving my Seattle pick for division and manager of the year. I don’t care they are 2-8 right now. I believe in Robinson.

Matt: So let’s review this at the end of the season and then not post the results or reference it for a few years?

Chippy: Seems about right, I like that plan.

Bliss: Got it.

Divisions

AL East:

Bliss - Red Sox

Chippy - Red Sox

Matt - Red Sox

AL Central:

Bliss - Indians

Chippy - Indians

Matt  -  Indians

AL West:

Bliss - Mariners

Chippy - Astros

Matt - Astros

NL East:

Bliss - Nats

Chippy - Mets, the pitching has to be healthy for one full season eventually, right?

Matt - Nationals

NL Central:

Bliss - Cubs

Chippy - Cubs

Matt - Cubs

NL West:

Bliss - Dodgers

Chippy - Giants

Matt - Dodgers

AL Wild Cards:

Bliss - Astros, Blue Jays

Chippy - Orioles, Rangers

Matt - Rangers, Blue Jays

NL Wild Cards:

Bliss - Cardinals, Giants

Chippy - Cardinals, Dodgers

Matt - Cardinals, Mets

ALCS:

Bliss - Indians over Mariners

Chippy - Red Sox over Indians

Matt - Indians over Red Sox - my heart hurts but so does Price’s elbow

NLCS:

Bliss - Cubs over Dodgers

Chippy - Dodgers over Cardinals

Matt - Dodgers over Cubs

World Series:

Bliss - Cubs over Indians

Chippy - ^ you know we just watched that, right? Red Sox over Dodgers

Matt - Dodgers over Indians

Leaders:

Home Runs:

Bliss - We still count these? Kris Bryant

Chippy - Arenado

Matt - Arenado - say it with me - COORS

Steals:

Bliss - Villar - It says he had 62 last year. That’s good, right?

Chippy - Hamilton

Matt - DeShields - I know this is gonna be wrong but man it’s gonna be fun to watch

RBIs:

Bliss - We still count THESE? Kris Bryant

Chippy - Arenado, gotta love that Rocky Mountain High

Matt - Bryant

Average:

Bliss - Trout - Almost went with Votto, but that lineup scares me even more than the Angels.

Chippy - Altuve

Matt - Machado

OPS:

Bliss - Trout

Chippy - ^

Matt - … sigh, he is that good

Wins:

Bliss - Sale

Chippy - Scherzer

Matt - Sale

Strikeouts:

Bliss - Kershaw

Chippy - Scherzer

Matt - Syndergaard

Winners:

AL Cy Young:

Bliss - Sale

Chippy - Kluber

Matt - Darvish

NL Cy Young:

Bliss - Madison Bumgarner (Look up his age. Go, look it up).

Chippy - Jon Lester

Matt - Bumgarner as well

AL MVP:

Bliss - Trout - Just should be Trout until further notice.

Chippy - ^ for the next 10-12 years at least

Matt - … yawn… Trout

NL MVP:

Bliss - Kris Bryant

Chippy - ^

Matt - Bryce Aron Max Harper * if he’s healthy - full name

AL ROY:

Bliss - Should we even do these? I mean….

NL ROY:

Bliss - Because we are probably going to all pick the same two guys.

AL Manager of the Year:

Bliss - Servais, SEA

Chippy - Hinch, HOU

Matt - Showalter, BAL

NL Manager of the Year:

Bliss - Maddon, CHI

Chippy - Roberts, LAD

Matt - Lovullo, ARI

Random Bets:

Worst Team in AL East:

Bliss - The Rays. Ugh, that hurts

Chippy - ^ Time to find a new devil to exorcise

Matt - Rays

Worst Team in the AL:

Bliss - Twins

Chippy - ^ Breaking 60 wins might not happen

Matt - White Sox - when Quintana goes, this gets BAD

Worst Team in the NL:

Bliss - Reds - I am so sorry Joey Votto. You deserve better.

Chippy - Padres

Matt - Reds - they still can’t pitch

How many no hitters this year?:

Bliss - 4

Chippy - 2

Matt - 1

Harper MVP position under over 3.5:

Bliss - Over

Chippy - Over

Matt - Under

Sanchez (NYY) HRs under over 27.5:

Bliss - Under

Chippy - Over

Matt - Under

David Price starts under over 20.5:

Bliss - Under

Chippy - Over

Matt - Under - one does not simply see the Dr. of Death and live to tell the tale