NFL 2011 Week 10 Predictions

Not perfect, but I got Ravens and Bears over the Steelers and Eagles, and that is what I feel the best about. NFL shaping up. This week, Jets vs. Pats will determine another course of action for the rest of the season.

Jags -3 over Colts, 17-10

-Suck for Luck!

Saints -1 over Falcons, 31-27

-I understand that the Falcons don’t run it well. But, the Saints can just score so much better. Roddy White better have a big game here for the Falcons to get this win.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 20-21

-Steelers probably win because they just had a bad loss and the Bengals, though good, haven’t played anyone yet. However, it being in Cincy, me believing in ROY Andy Dalton (that’s right, I said it), and the extra half point gets to take the Bengals to cover. A win by the Bengals would crush the Steelers and put this in a bind for a division crown and even a WC berth.

Rams +3.5 over Browns, 17-13

-I mean someone has to win. Big difference is that the Rams have a real QB, a real RB, and a real WR. The Browns have none of that. So….yeah.

Chiefs -3 over Broncos, 24-20

-Arrowhead?

Cards +13.5 over Eagles, 14-27

-Eagles will win this game pretty handily, and the Cards don’t do much to exploit the Eagles’ weaknesses. But, 13.5 points are way too much.

Texans -3 over Bucs, 27-20

-The Texans’ defense is for real, and their running game will keep them in control.

Fins -4 over Skins, 20-6

-Skins, your name offends me, your offense offends me, and your owner offends me. Even Matt Moore can dominate you.

Ravens -7 over Seattle, 24-10

-Questions?

Giants +3.5 over 49ers, 24-23

-So here is the deal. The Niners are clearly good. But not 7-1 good. The Giants’ biggest weakness is the pass defense and I am not sure the Niners can exploit that at all. The Giants are pretty good, they beat the Pats and Eagles pretty handily to be honest, and I think the ride stops here for Alex Smith, at least for one week.

Bears -3 over Lions, 30-24

-Lions without Best, and the Bears are rolling better than anyone is seeing right now. Love Forte. 

Pats +1.5 over Jets, 31-21

-Two things I have held as truths: The Pats don’t lose two in a row, the Pats don’t lose after byes. Well, both happened in the past few weeks. So either it is really over and the ride has stopped here, or they regroup and start a new set of records. The Pats just can’t lose three in a row. A month ago if you had told me the Pats would be the team desperate for this game, I would have starred at you so hard it would have hurt. But they are. And I think that they take it.

Packers -13.5 over Vikings, 31-14

-Yeah….no.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 8-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 65-29

By Spread: 52-43

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 321-162
By Spread: 261-221

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 9 Predictions

Much better week last week, even with short rest on my part. Things are getting clearer.

Week 9 Picks: 

Cowboys -11.5 over Seahawks, 30-13

-This is a lot of points but is the opportunity the Cowboys need to get right. The aerial offense should be all set after this game.

Falcons -6.5 over Colts, 24-7

-This is a game where the Falcons go up quickly and play grind it out offense with a zone defense for the rest of the game. The Colts are just terrible.

Chiefs -4 over Dolphins, 21-10

-I cannot believe the Chiefs are going to be 6-3 after next week. Too bad their schedule is horrid after that.

Saints -8.5 over Bucs, 34-24

-Bucs have a lot of minor injuries to people like Freeman, Blount, and McCoy that may allow them to play but won’t let them be at 100%. It is in New Orleans, and the Saints won’t allow their offense to be shut down like that two weeks in a row.

49ers -3.5 over ‘Skins, 21-6

-John Beck is bad. No Santana Moss, who knows who is running the ball, and even Fred Davis is injured. 49ers aren’t explosive but this is the best team matchup for them to dominate a game.

Texans -10.5 over Browns, 24-10

-The Browns are seemingly great against the pass, but they haven’t played anyone (Fantasy Focus Podcast today mentioned the best QB they have faced is Matt Hasselbeck), and the Texans will do a ton of damage via the run and short passing game. Haden will be wasted without Andre out there. Hillis being injured, the Texans revving up, this could be ugly to watch.

Giants +9.5 over Patriots, 34-38

-Pats win but Giants cover an excessively large line. I will not be watching any pregame prep and the words “Tyree”, “helmet”, or “perfect season” shall not be mentioned in my presence. Neither team can cover receivers (Giants due to injury, Patriots due to…scheming? Lack of talent?), neither can run the ball (Giants due to injury, Patriots due to….schedming? Lack of talent?). Aerial shootout it is!

Raiders -7.5 over Broncos, 24-10

-When Carson Palmer is by far and away the best QB in the game, you have a problem. Do you realize in the part of the game last week that mattered last week Tebow was 8-23 for 50 yards? That is so pathetic it is amazing. Brady Quinn! Brady Quinn!

Chargers +7.5 over Packers, 33-31

-Tale of two teams:

The Chargers’ season can go two ways. They can self destruct. Or they can shift into November mode and run off 8 victories.

The Packer season can continue to role on to the perfect tune. Or, they can succumb to the bye week curse and have 1 or 2 let downs on the way to a deep playoff run. The injuries in the secondary have to affect them sometime.

-So, I see this as the game where at least a team covers and stays close, and I think the Chargers need this victory so much more.

Ravens +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-I know it is in Pittsburgh but the Ravens just match up so well on paper. Ray Rice willing them to another victory over Pittsburgh puts them well into the driver’s seat for the division and probably the best team in the AFC. At the very least, take the points here.

Bears +7.5 over Eagles, 24-23

-Eagles played so well last week but this is the perfect team to run into them. Out of all the teams the Packers have played in their last 16 games, the Bears have given them the most trouble because of how tough they play and their focus on running the ball and attacking LBs with their pass catching RBs. The same matchup issues exist with the Eagles and Bears. The Bears are also motivated because in all likelihood this is a competition for a Wildcard Spot.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-3

By Spread: 7-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 65-29

By Spread: 52-43

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 321-162
By Spread: 261-221

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 8 Predictions

Well, that didn’t go well. Still doing well overall this year, but in a rough patch. Time to come out of it. Predictions going up early this week, got some important papers to do this weekend. Good luck everyone.

Titans -9 over Colts, 24-10

-Titans aren’t good, but the Colts are truly horrible. And Chris Johnson has to get off at some point.

Texans -10 over Jags, 27-7

-Jags looked pathetic on Monday night, and the Texans are riding high. They might get Andre back this week too.

Saints -14 over Rams, 38-6

-Couldn’t be a high enough line. Might burn my eliminator pick in many leagues on the Saints this week.

Cards +12.5 over Ravens, 17-21

-Don’t trust the Ravens offense. After Monday night, do you?

Giants -9.5 over Fins, 28-7

-Suck for Luck, Suck for Luck

Bills -5 over Skins, 24-13

-The John Beck show everyone. Featuring Roy Helu and Anthony Armstrong.

Lions -3.5 over Broncos, 27-13

-Assuming Stafford is healthy, this should be easy. For 43 minutes, Tebow was awful. Now, they have no McGahee. Should be a “get right” game for the Lions.

Pats -2.5 over Steelers, 38-28

-The Pats don’t lose after bye weeks. Steelers are overachieving, mainly because of a good schedule. The Pats don’t lose after bye weeks. The Steelers don’t match up well with the Pats, especially the TEs. The Pats don’t lose after bye weeks.

49ers -9 over Browns, 20-10

-The Niners are decent and have had time off during the bye to get prepared. The Browns looked pathetic in their reenactment of an 1890 scrimmage last week.

Bengals -2 over Seahawks, 20-10

-Charlie Whitehurst everybody! Bengals take time away from chuckling about the Carson Palmer picks…and the draft selections…to take care of business here. It would be more except for the Benson suspension.

Cowboys +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-Cowboys take a stance in their claim for the division and put the Eagles on life support. The House that Jerry Built will be rocking and Witten has a huge game while Vick has some critical turnovers. The Eagles LBs aren’t able to keep up with the TEs and Murray, and Romo is good enough to win.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-5

By Spread: 3-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 57-26

By Spread: 45-39

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 313-159
By Spread: 254-217

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 7 Predictions

The week 7 lines have to be quick, busy week:

Lions -3.5 over Falcons, 24-20

-Falcons are not dynamic enough but the combination of a familiar playing turf for Atlanta and the absence of Best make this close enough that I wouldn’t blame you for taking the points.

Bears -1 over Bucs, 24-17

-No Blount, Bucs don’t play as well on the road as the Bears do, and it is too cold. Also, the Bucs advantage in coverage is negative by the complete lack of talent in the Bears WR. Forte should have a big day.

Dolphins -1 over Broncos, 17-13

-I don’t believe in Tebow and do believe in the Dolphins D. I see a big game from Daniel Thomas, though Brandon Marshall should be negated.

Texans +3.5 over Titans, 21-20

-I wouldn’t want to pick a victory but with 3.5 you have to take it. The Titans are much less talented but are significantly more healthy and rested off the bye. Texans could put a stranglehold on the division with a win here, and I think that they know that.

Chargers -1 over Jets, 28-14

-I love the Chargers here because they have something good going with the running game and the Jets cannot stop the run. Sure, Revis takes out V-Jax but I don’t think it matters because V-Jax isn’t fully healthy anyways and Gates will be back.

Cards +4.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-It is close and the points are vital. The Steelers have to get tripped up and the Cards have had two weeks (or two years perhaps) to coordinate their efforts against the Steelers.

Packers -9 over Vikings, 27-10

-Adrian Peterson cannot make up for a rookie QB. Packers roll onward.

Rams +14.5 over Cowboys, 14-24

-Dallas wins easily but the Rams will be throwing from behind so much it will within the two touchdown spread.

Saints -13.5 over Colts, 31-13

-The Saints will not let the WRs beat them, so the Colts will look rather pathetic. The Saints need this game, are at home, and will have the memory of last week’s stinging loss to motivate them. Having Sean Payton for the whole time will help.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 53-21

By Spread: 42-33

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 309-154
By Spread: 251-211

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 6 Predictions

Well, that was a brutal week. But, I think it was a learning point. Specifically, I reached the breaking point with several teams. The Bengals, Raiders, and 49ers are distinctly average and not bad. They can beat bad teams and good teams that are disorganized. The Cardinals are just bad, and I am now facing up to that. The Eagles, Colts, and Chiefs I have long known to be terrible. The Texans and Steelers may make the playoffs but it won’t be impressive and will be wounded, flawed warriors when and if they get there.

So, let’s see how this goes this week, with perhaps some better understanding of teams.

Colts +7.5 over Bengals, 17-23

-Bengals win because they are slightly better and have an actual future in front of them this season. But 7.5 points? Let’s not get crazy.

Jags +12.5 over Steelers, 21-27

-Jags are not THAT terrible, and I think the Steelers are thoroughly mediocre. So a probable Steeler win but 12.5 is ridiculous for how games are going this year.

Eagles -1 over Skins, 24-17

-I really wish I could take the Skins. But Vick owns this defense. The Skins have lost the last two years coming off a bye. Rex Grossman. Ugh. So the Eagles win it. But wow, would this end the Eagles season right here and now.

Giants -3 over Bills, 24-20

-See, the Giants were bad last week and the Bills beat a great team. So I am going to pick the opposite of what that suggests. See, it is called “regression to the mean”.

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers, 21-17

-Falcons are not very good. But they are at least average and have some decent skill players. The Panthers are playing WAY above their heads right now, and while the Panthers may have another backdoor cover in their pockets, 3.5 is small enough a line I feel comfortable taking Matt Ryan at home. He is always good there and Roddy White is the healthiest he has been this year.

Lions -4 over 49ers, 31-14

-So I was going to take the upstart Niners, but then I remembered: A. Alex Smith, B. West Coast team coming east in a 1pm game, C. Detroit pass rush against Alex Smith and that offensive line in Detroit, and D. Calvin Johnson is not human.

Packers -15 over Rams, 34-10

-Yeah…..no. Rams need WRs to win. Also, health and skill would be helpful as well.

Raiders -6.5 over Browns, 22-13

-McFadden plays well, Browns are unable to run, and thus just cannot move the ball.

Ravens -8.5 over Texans, 27-17

-Seems like a cover situation. Then I remembered that there is no Andre or Mario. I also smell an Ed Reed pick six here.

Cowboys +7.5 over Patriots, 34-37

-Pats win but since they cannot stop anyone the Cowboys cover. Romo puts up an insane fantasy day with something like 400 yards, 3 TDs….and a crucial late turnover.

Vikings +3.5 over Bears, 21-23

-Bears win because they are home and just much better than the Viks. But Peterson keeps it close, and a Vikings cover is the smartest thing here because they could win outright.

Saints -5.5 over Bucs, 34-20

-I have all kinds of stats and examples to make fun of the last two Bucs games, and the fact that Josh Freeman was dropped in 3 leagues I am in. Blount isn’t playing. But, I am going to go with Bill Simmons’ comments: “Saints have scored 157 points this year. Bucs have scored 87.” That pretty much covers it, right?

Dolphins +7.5 over Jets, 14-20

-Jets win because they need this and Matt Moore is playing for Miami. But, I am taking the cover because despite the skill level differential this rivalry is intense and sometimes the records don’t matter.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 4-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 43-19

By Spread: 35-28

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 299-152
By Spread: 244-206

BLISS

NFL 2001 Week 5 Predictions

I got Week 4 almost entirely correct if not for those pesky lines. 11-2/8-5 is not a bad score though. The byes hit this week, meaning many less games going on. Good luck everyone.

Here are my week 5 selections:

Cardinals +3 over Vikings, 21-20

-The Vikings still have Donovan McNabb right? Seriously though I don’t know who else other than Adrian Peterson is good on this offense. Cards win the battle of ex-Eagle QBs behind a big game from Fitz.

Saints -6.5 over Panthers, 27-13

-The Panthers stay just close enough in the last few games to keep it interesting. Well, that cannot last forever. The Saints are just much better and win by 7 if the Panthers stay close or win by a ton if they don’t.

Texans -6 over Raiders, 24-17

-Raiders are tough but the Texans are locked in, for real, and even without Andre can pass it. Arian Foster is just getting warmed up.

Giants -9.5 over Seahawks, 31-10

-Nicks, Jacobs, and Bradshaw have nice games and this is a laugher by halftime.

ELIMINATOR PICK

Titans +3.5 over Steelers, 24-23

-Calling the upset, but I don’t even think it is that. Mendenhall is a curse of 370 guy, Ben is getting his rear end handed to them, and I just got a call to try out for an offensive line spot in Pittsburgh. And what I have been saying for weeks now is true: the Steelers got old and aren’t very good anymore.

Bucs +3.5 over 49ers, 24-20

-I don’t get it. The Bucs are clearly better. Aren’t they? I mean, Alex Smith is still the QB, right? I am at least taking the points here. I will say one thing definitively. The Harbaugh brothers > Ryan brothers.

Pats -9.5 over Jets, 31-17

-I just don’t see how the Jets score with them. The Jets RBs are ordinary, and Sanchez is too inconsistent to take advantage of the Pats weak secondary. Plus, the Pats know they can put a death blow to the Jets season right now.

Chargers -4 over Broncos, 31-10

-Yeah, this might be a laugher. I don’t understand how this isn’t a 7 point game. The Chargers are good and the Broncos aren’t. Pretty much that simple.

Packers -6 over Falcons, 35-24

-This looks worse on the field than the final score will say because the Falcons will score a late couple of scores while the Packers are resting. The Packers destroyed the Falcons in the playoffs. Since then, the Packers have gotten better and the Falcons are looking worse. Why should the result change from the last time then?

Bears +6.5 over Lions, 20-21

-Lions win this game but I think the Bears will play them hard and close. Should be a really good MNF game, even without Hank Williams Jr.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 36-14

By Spread: 28-20

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 292-147
By Spread: 240-198

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 4 Predictions

Week 3 was a strange week. So many of the games finished within a touchdown it made the spreads powerful. Somehow, I don’t see that trend continuing.

Here are my week 4 selections:

Bears -6 over Panthers, 21-13

-Bears roll this even more than it appears over the rookie QB. Bears defense is a very strong and Cam won’t be able to throw the ball deep successfully.

Bills -3 over Bengals, 20-14

-This is painful, but the Bills are 3-0, just beat NE, and just seem more put together than the Bengals. If Cedric Benson doesn’t play, make this an even higher margin of victory.

Vikings -1 over Chiefs, 17-10

-Both teams are disappointing, sinking, and just generally a sad sight. But the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson, and the Chiefs do not have Jamaal Charles.

Saints -7.5 over Jags, 34-10

-Blowout. Saints defense has a chance to feel good about themselves with 2-3 picks from Gabbert. Mark Ingram may actually have a significant week fantasy wise.

Texans -3 over Steelers, 31-20

-Even more convincing than this score, Texans will rule this matchup. Steelers can no longer stop the run, and the Steelers cannot block for Roeslithberger.

Detroit -3 over Dallas, 31-23

-Dallas has too many injuries, especially in the secondary. Detroit is for real and maybe more people on the national stage will notice after they shoot down the Cowboys.

Titans -1 over Browns, 24-10

-The Browns cannot score, Titans can. I think CJ has a good day even if he isn’t great yet. The memory of their former OC inspires the Titans to victory.

Atlanta -4.5 over Seattle, 20-13

-Not pretty, but Atlanta wins because they are just so much better. Still, East Coast team traveling west (and very South going very North actually) can be a problem. I would not use an eliminator pick on them.

Packers -12.5 over Denver, 31-10

-Not much to say here except that Denver isn’t very good and the Packers are. Also, the Packers haven’t played an awesome game yet and are still comfortably 3-0. That game is coming.

Chargers -7 over Dolphins, 27-13

-The Chargers, now that September is over, can start rolling and putting up numbers.

Patriots -4 over Raiders, 34-23

-Just because Belichick doesn’t EVER lose two games in a row. I mean, really, look it up. And Jason Campbell is still Jason Campbell. However I give the Raiders enough respect as a tough team that this isn’t a cake walk, and the Pats don’t seal it until very late.

Ravens -3.5 over Jets, 24-17

-So, I think this a simple matter of the Jets not being a good team and the Ravens being close to a good team. So, 7 point victory?

Bucs -10 over Colts, 24-7

-Colts gave their all last week, and they just won’t have enough. Painter will make mistakes, and the Bucs will run it all over the Colts. Blount is the perfect back to take advantage of the Colts smallish defense. I am actually sitting Josh Freeman in several leagues because I think he will be sitting in real life come the end of the 3^rd Quarter. How much does ESPN regret putting the Colts on MNF now, huh?

ELIMINATOR PICK

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 25-12

By Spread: 20-15

Record last year:

Straight Up: 138-55

By Spread: 112-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 281-145
By Spread: 232-193

BLISS