NFL 2012 Week 5 Predictions and Rankings

The byes are here, and with it the marking of a quarter gone of the season. The NFL season always flies by rapidly, and you get so little of it where you have figured teams out and the teams are also ALL playing for something. In some ways, weeks 5-12 are the weeks where you get PURE football. In weeks 1-4 people are trying, but we understand teams are adjusting to new schemes, new players,  and new circumstances. By week 13 major injuries have taken their toll, and some teams are either way out of it or resting for the playoffs. So I say, enjoy this time while we have it.

Top 6

1. Atlanta – I have simply seen the best team in football in the Falcons. Matt Ryan is doing his best Aaron Rodgers 2011 impersonation, and it is working. But their win over Carolina, late, was what convinced me.

2. Houston – I said to a friend that as good as Houston looks, and they do, a Falcons-Texans Superbowl goes down like the Packers-Steelers Superbowl. The teams are set up the same way, and I think the Falcons would just score too much.

3. Baltimore – I feel wary about this, but I picked them to make the Superbowl, and they did win 3 of 4 games in 18 days. There are holes here, but I believe in Flacco.

4. San Francisco – I don’t believe, but have to give respect. They have owned it in their 3 wins. The loss however is troubling.

5. Chicago – My Superbowl pick went 3-1 in the first quarter, and while people might be booing this ranking, really look at the stats and tell me this isn’t a pretty dang good team. Love the Defense, Special Team, Home Field, banged up division, and the offense has real potential moving forward. They have the best defensive DVOA at -24.8%. Better than Houston people. This team is for real.

6. New England – I oscillated between this team and the Cardinals, who I have unapologetically loved. But right now I do believe NE is better, and that will also be true down the road. A strong argument can be made for them being 4-0 right now. Arizona is a great story, but FootballOutsiders still has NE with the 3^rd best chance at winning the Superbowl at 15%, and their offense is number one at 33.2% and it isn’t close (Baltimore is actually second at 21% followed by Houston. Atlanta surprisingly is 7^th).

Bottom 6

27. Tampa Bay – I would love to believe that they aren’t bad. But then they go out each week and play badly. Not much else to say.

28. Kansas City – I really thought they would be better, and I have little choice but to put them here. QB needs to be addressed. Matt Barkley might fit here…

29. Indianapolis – This will be a feisty team but a bad one. The health problems of the coach are sad, but also probably likely to cause the team to fall apart. Make the entire season about getting Luck looks at every situation possible.  

30. New York (J) – I only list the Jets this high because they do have 2 wins. But this team is about to just fall over and die. They have little talent, lost their good players, and in that market the pressure is going to erupt. Tebow time soon.

31. Jacksonville – Just not enough there, though I don’t hate the pieces. Take out the back to back miracle plays this season, and they are a REALLY bad team but record and stats.

32. Cleveland – I’m sorry Cleveland, I’m just very sorry. Who is going to laugh when they take a QB number 1? Maybe this one will be 32 years old when they draft him.

Quick Picks:

Cardinals -1.5 over Rams, 17-15

-Arizona forces 5 field goals. Absolutely no one watches this game. I am extremely excited.

Falcons -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-17

-I have made myself extremely clear on these teams. Let’s move on.

Packers -7 over Colts, 31-14

-Prime for a blowout because of the circumstances on both sides. Sorry Colts, truly, but this one could be ugly.

Giants -9 over Browns, 28-10

-There are many reasons. But mainly, can Brandon Weeden produce 28 points? That’s what I thought. Move along.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bengals -4 over Dolphins, 23-13

-No repeat for Tannehill. Bengals are able to move the ball consistently, and AJ Green owns again. Concerned for the Law Firm here though.

Ravens -5 over Chiefs, 31-17

-Ravens bury Cassell, who gets pulled for Brady Quinn. Ed Reed gets a pick six.

Bears -5.5 over Jags, 24-10

-Bears defense versus Blaine Gabbert. I’m excited.

Patriots -7 over Broncos, 34-24

-Take the over, just do it. Pats cover because they dare Manning to play deep, and he can’t do it. Pats will move this ball, and the TEs have big games (whoever they are this week).

Texans -8 over Jets,

-See “Niners-Jets Week 4”. Same thing. Downhill slide continues.

-2^nd best eliminator pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-5

By Spread: 5-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 33-23

By Spread: 27-28

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 422-220
By Spread: 347-301

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 4 Predictions

Well, that went badly. I am still above .500, but only just barely. Time to make a run past .625.

Falcons -7 over Panthers, 31-17

-Seems like a good place to start. Why this is 7 I don’t know. By all rights Atlanta should light them up. Cam can only do so much and Atlanta’s defense is quietly taking care of business while the offense gets the publicity.

Pats -4.5 over Bills, 31-20

-Recent news about Rob Gronkowski’s hip is a little disturbing, but there is no way this Patriots team can A. go 1-3, B. keep sputtering offensively like they have, or C. keep the awkwardness of the Wes Welker situation going. Unfortunately, I think that while the first two things are handled, the third will be solved by Welker getting traded. The Sports Guy’s prediction of Welker going to Seattle actually sounds scarily appropriate. I really hope not though. Pats start a 9 game winning streak here (somewhat based on talent but look at that schedule. The Rams and Dolphins feature prominently). Why this is 4.5 in the Vegas Zone I have no clue, jump on a rare Pats line not versus the Packers, Giants, Ravens, or Steelers that isn’t above 7.

Chiefs +1.5 over Chargers, 24-23

Because they are at Arrowhead. Because Norv Turner is involved. Because team ACL (KC’s new nickname, due to all the players just turning it on after ACL injuries in previous years) is finally alive. And because Atlanta exposed SD’s defense as not actually being great.

Seahawks -3 over Rams, 16-10

-Ugh, unwatchable slugfest. Seattle just wins because that defense is so good. And because no Rams’ draft picks on the OL have worked out since Orlando Pace. 3.5 would be dangerous, stay away. Lynch has a good fantasy day here.

Niners -4.5 over Jets, 20-9

-Because the NFC better than AFC? I don’t have a great pulse on this, so I am going with the conference thing. Sanchez can just be made to look terrible, and that Bills’ game is going to be a big aberration before this year is done in relationship to how it presented the Jets offense. Niners come out angry in this one.

Texans -12 over Titans, 24-10

-A “take care of business” game. Wait, I said that last week for the Vikings-Niners game? Well, this time I mean it. Chris Johnson’s nightmare season doesn’t reorient itself here.

Raiders +7 over Broncos, 27-20

-WAY too many points here. In fact I’ll just take the upset. See, the Raiders do it all ugly. Win ugly. Lose ugly. Snap the ball to punters ugly. But at the end of the game, Palmer has numbers, McFadden has affected the game in a positive way, and Lechler and Seabass have kicked the ball over 55 yards once each. And at least the Raiders know who they are (Tommy Kelly aside). Peyton doesn’t yet know that his current level of arm strength best suits him for a role with the Colts, Broncos, Titans, or Volunteers…as the offensive coordinator.

Cards -6 over Fins, 23-10

-Love my Cards, hate Tannehill. Cards made Vick and Brady look human. Imagine what they do to this sad offensive arrangement. Fitzgerald goes OFF. Kevin Kolb goes 4-0, the Mayans grin.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bengals -2.5 over Jaguars, 24-13

-Yeah, the Bengals are at minimum decently good, and the Jaguars are at best mediocre. No last minute miracles here. Big game by AJ Green though, and I have a suspicion MoJo gets corralled.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bucs -2.5 over Racial Slurs, 27-17

-Washington is starting to crumble as predicted, with the injuries to that team really taking a toll. And if Tampa Bay had some play calling from this century, they’d have a better record, and definitively would have beaten the Cowboys. Bucs finally breakout on offense and win this one solidly. Feels like time for a random 7 for 185 and 2 TDs from Vincent Jackson, right?

Packers -7.5 over Saints, 52-24

-I predict one of the biggest “eff you” games ever from the Packers and a ridiculous scoring output. Consider: A. the injustice of last week, B. the breakout that is coming from the Packers offensively, C. the result of this matchup last season, and D. the directions of both teams.

For point A, I think it is just a case of the Packers being pissed off, but because the coaching staff is so good it will be focused instead of a detriment. For point B, they have played the Seahawks, Bears, and Niners while missing Greg Jennings (injury) and Jermichael Finley (hands), and incorporating Cedric Benson into the fold. That is three awesome pass defenses, and a tough schedule overall. Point C is just a reference, but we know how big Saints/Packers games go, versus each other and other similar opponents. Point D, well, put it this way: New Orleans lost to Washington, Carolina, and Kansas City. For all three of those teams, their win over the Saints is their only one, the aberration in their thus far unsatisfactory seasons. The Packers, like the Patriots, have “good” losses.

Finally, not sure the Saints are going to put up a ton of garbage time points and yards. Green Bay, after being historically the worst passing defense ever last year, are quietly number 1 in that department this year. Just saying…

Giants +1.5 over Eagles, 33-16

-Put records and feelings aside. The Giants are champs, know the formula to beat the Eagles, and are trending upwards. They are getting healthier and working new parts into an already prime system. The Eagles choke in big games, are prone to going on multi-week slides, are getting more and more hurt, and Mike Vick has 11 turnovers in 3 games. If the Bengals and Cards didn’t exist, this would be my Eliminator game.

Bears +3.5 over Cowboys, 27-22

Ware on J’Marcus Webb could be ugly, but that’s about all I am afraid of in this one. Cowboys kick too many field goals and get victimized on special teams or defense. The preceding sentence was both a fact and prediction. Cutler and crew get enough done on offense to secure a victory.

I got laughed at a bit for my Bears over Ravens Super Bowl pick, and yeah it doesn’t look like the best thing ever. But my point remains true: The Bears last year were playing some of the best football before Forte and Cutler got hurt. They remain the same on special teams and defense from then, and by any measure got better on offense by replacing Roy Williams with Brandon Marshall. And while it hasn’t been pretty, that defense has been dominant. Even in that Packers “blowout”, they allowed one significant drive for a TD (Packers scored another TD on a fake field goal). They shut the Rams and Colts down hard. Just saying, I am not jumping away from my Bears pick, even if Monday night doesn’t see them perform well. I continue to believe.

Note: next week will begin my top and bottom 5 rankings, as I like to get at least 4 weeks worth of data before doing those. See you then, happy football.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 25-18

By Spread: 22-20

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 414-215
By Spread: 342-293

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 3 Predictions

Well, that was pretty brutal. There were some really bad beats last week, including just brutal finishes for me in the NE-ARI game (I even picked Arizona to be good this year, can’t be mad at anyone but myself for trying to lay 14 with NE) and the PHI-BAL game (I just have no words. That was grounding....I just can't).

This is snapback weekend. We all overreacted about week 1 (how great NE, BAL, and NYJ were, and how bad CLE, CIN, and BUF were). Now, after week 2 produced for the most part opposite performances we readjust again snapping back to our preseason thoughts about these 1-1 teams. These teams are so schizophrenic; it is hard to try to find the truth about their identities. And funny enough, this weekend is almost not going to matter. One of Miami and the Jets are going to be 2-1, but both are going to finish under .500. The 49ers and Texans will both probably be 3-0, SD-ATL will produce a 3-0 and 2-1 team as will PHI-ARI. However, only the 49ers have a legit Super Bowl shot out of those 6, and I don’t even like that very much. One of NE and BAL will be 1-2 after tomorrow night, and I think both of those teams are in the conference title game.  

The records are nice but the sample size at this point is so small that I prefer to look at how the teams are playing and what long term implications are out there. One of the reasons I really like Arizona is that the defense is showing they are elite, and whenever they figure out a passing game the team will have the opportunity to be special. Philly is showing that they are injury and turnover prone, so despite their record so far I am confident that this is a team that will fall short later in the season. And finally, the Washington franchise is in trouble. People are being clouded by the allure of RG3. I don’t think he is a bad guy, I like him and his attitude quite a lot actually. But his ability to read defenses and react is far more limited than people are seeing. They are keeping it VERY simple for him, and defenses will react soon (STL did by the end of that game, and that’s STL for goodness’ sake). Washington also lost Carriker and Orakpo for the season, and I expect very little pass rush out of them going forward. Finally, Mike Shanahan is still involved. I am half expecting him to bench Alfred Morris and start Rex Grossman at QB so RG3 can play running back full time. This team isn’t that good anyways, so I expect Washington to start falling off soon. In fact, let’s just start right there…

Bengals +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-I continue not to buy RG3, and the losses of Carriker and Orakpo will spell doom for Washington’s season. Garcon is still hurt people, this just isn’t boding well. Maybe they should change their karma by changing their offensive name. Just saying.

Bills -3 over Browns, 20-13

-Probably a decently ugly game, but I don’t think the Browns can keep their offense producing as they did last week. The Bills win on a couple of Spiller breakaways. Fred Jackson…sorry buddy, you got unlucky with this situation.

Lions -3.5 over Titans, 31-13

-Yeah, no way Tennessee beats the Lions as they stare 0-3 in the face. They were in the playoffs last year. You have Jake Locker. Just, no.

Colts -3 over Jags, 17-13

-I officially believe in Andrew Luck in games like this. He is just better than the Gabbert, Kolb, Weeden, Locker, Alex Smith, Tannehill, Cassel, Ponder, Palmer, Sanchez, Russell Martin level of QB, and in most games that means I am taking the Colts (unless the team is great, like the Niners or Cards). Otherwise, this is just a matchup of bad teams, so Luck breaks the tie.

Chiefs +9.5 over Saints, 24-31

-The Saints likely won’t lose, but 9.5 is way too much. Chiefs cover on their now patented Bowe touchdown near the end. Don’t worry Dwayne, the fantasy owners among us appreciate it all the same. Saints offense produces in this one but it still isn't pretty. 

-Best Eliminator Pick (Saints will win, just not prettily)

Niners -6.5 over Vikings, 24-13

-Good team takes care of bad team. Nothing else to see here. Gore, Gore, Hunter, Gore, Davis, Gore, rinse, repeat.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -7 over Rams, 30-13

-Love the beginnings of a good Rams team, but they are going to be victimized by an angry Bears team that has had 10 days to both prepare and simmer on their loss to the Packers. This is also one of those “don’t bet the under” games because it is queued up for a kick return TD or an interception return.

Bucs +9 over Cowboys, 24-27

-Like the Chiefs/Saints game, this line is just too big. Cowboys win most times this game is played but the cover is the smarter play.

Falcons +3.5 over Chargers, 31-30

-Take the points, there are way too many of them. Take the over, it is sitting there for you. As for the winner? I have no idea. I trust Matty Ice, so I’ll go that way in a close game. And the Falcons, even with the Michael Turner situation, will have far more of their guys available.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 22-21

-Just win baby. The Cardinals are doing it ugly, but getting it done. I don’t trust the Eagles at all. The green birds are coming in hurt, turning it over like crazy, and the Cardinals are sitting there ready with that amazing defense. I think they blast the heck out of Michael Vick, and score enough themselves to win. Calling a Patrick Peterson score somehow in this “upset” pick. (Notice in how legitimizing this pick I didn’t use the term “Kevin Kolb”. Let’s not discuss it, okay?)

Texans -1 over Broncos, 24-13

-Texans continue to just take care of business. The Broncos are a nice team, but they aren’t elite. Texans overcome the fact that Manning is 16-2 against them, because this isn’t that set up anymore. Foster and Tate stretch out the game, keep Manning off the field, and help the Texans cruise through this game.

Patriots+1.5 over Ravens, 24-23

-It is just hard not to pick Tom Brady against Joe Flacco. It is hard to get around. Also, I like the Patriots because the Ravens defense isn’t that great. Maybe they can be productive, this time with a healthy Gronkowski and usable Ridley. Weird to think one of these teams is going to be 1-2. This should be a hard fought close battle either way. I would not be surprised at a 7 point Ravens win, but the Pats don’t lose back to back games very often, and the adversity tends to push them to big wins, so I will keep the faith with them.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-16

-Please people, don’t overreact. Dallas always gets shellacked in Seattle. The Packers are still the Packers and will score easily on them. 3 points is nothing. Jennings’ health is a concern, but Seattle has Braylon Edwards involved, so…

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 6-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 18-12

By Spread: 14-15

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 407-209
By Spread: 334-288

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 2 Predictions

I did okay last week considering it was week 1. And I like most of the games this week, probably a little too much. Clearly that means this is going to be bad, so let’s get it over with.

Patriots -13.5 over Cardinals, 40-13

-Kevin Kolb is involved. Also, as good as NE was last week, they still missed a couple of big plays and relatively easy third downs. I see an explosion coming here. Also, Kevin Kolb is involved.

Ravens -1 over Eagles, 27-14

-Yeah, I don’t get this. The Ravens were awesome. The Eagles barely beat a team that put up the following passing stats: 12-35, 116 yards, 4 INTs. Easy win. Ray Rice has a HUGE game.

Bengals -7 over Browns, 24-6

-The Bengals are a decent team, they just drew a tough week 1 assignment. Also, please see the stats of the game from above. BJGE is a great fantasy play this weekend (though I cannot imagine people are not playing him at this point).

-Best Eliminator Pick

Texans – 7 over Jacksonville, 23-10

-Calm down everyone, this isn’t the 85 Bears or 99 Ravens. But Houston is a good defense and Jacksonville is still a mediocre offense. Owen Daniels may continue a good start to his season, good matchup for him.

-Second Best Eliminator Pick

Chiefs +3.5 over Bills, 21-20

-I picked the Bills to make the playoffs, but with what we saw last week I am not sure I can continue to support that. And in any case I also think the Chiefs will win their division. They hung with a good Falcons team last week for a long while. Charles will be warmed up, and the Chiefs squeak one out on the road.

Vikings -1 over Colts, 20-10

-The defensive line will crush Luck. Vikings aren’t great but take care of the Colts. Peterson might only get some work before being pulled in a recurring theme. I would like to support the Vikings having a sneaky good year but the schedule does get tougher.

Saints -2.5 over Panthers, 31-24

-Yeah, the Saints aren’t starting 0-2. Brees will be better, and they will have gotten a lot of update messages from anonymous gmail accounts as Sean Payton is “sitting at home not contacting the team”. Cam has a good day statistically but most of it is from playing from behind.

Dolphins +1 over Raiders, 17-13

-As Bill Simmons said: “Take Carson Palmer on the road in a humid air while the Dolphins are forcing the Raiders to wear their home blacks? I don’t think so”. Does this mean I am backing Ryan Tannehill for a week? Maybe. Let’s just hoping I am backing Reggie Bush for a week. And as always, I am backing Carson Palmer interceptions.

Bucs +7 over Giants, 20-24

-Giants will win this but they just play so mediocre at home I am predicting the cover. Doug Martin is getting a lot of backing this week to perform well, but I think he could actually live up to the billing. Eli may have a shaky week, I’d be more comfortable playing Bradshaw (and am). David Wilson is trying to lose his job.

Cowboys -3 over Seahawks, 27-17

-I like Seattle a lot. Not quite Bill Simmons’ level of liking the Seahawks, but they have a solid team. But their skill position players could be a lot better, and they cannot produce consistent points. The Cowboys can. Thus, the Cowboys win. 2012 NFL everyone.

Rams +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-RG3 gets a little more exposed this week. Washington cannot catch good bounces on all 8 turnover opportunities like they did last week (they caught all three Brees picks, the Saints dropped RG3’s pick, and Washington recovered both teams’ two fumbles). That’s just incredible luck. And Sam Bradford takes another few steps toward reminding us he is actually pretty decent. Too bad they haven’t given him anything at WR. Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney couldn’t go there? Really?

Jets +6.5 over Steelers, 17-16

-I have very little idea who wins this game, but take the points. It should be low scoring and close regardless. The fact that the Steelers have so many injury concerns suggests to me a Jets win, but I hate them too.

Chargers -6 over Titans, 26-13

-Did I miss something? Why are the Titans considered to be good? Bad QB, inconsistent receivers, running back clearly not the same guy as 3 years ago, and they have a banged up quarterback. Oh, they are strong in the front seven and have good line play? Who cares, its 2012. Those things are nice but if you don’t have an elite QB it doesn’t matter anymore. Chargers at least have that, and they will hit more big plays than last week.

Lions +7 over 49ers, 24-23

-Upset alert. Just still don’t see a team in the 49ers that can score with some of the big boys. They got Green Bay, sure, and deserve credit for that win. But I just don’t see how they can score enough with teams like the Lions. As Alex Smith is asked to do more, his career just suggests it will go badly. And if he goes back to doing less, the Lions will score too much. However, if Calvin doesn’t play don’t even think of taking the points.

Falcons -3 over Broncos, 30-24

-Hard to bet against the Manning factor, but I still don’t think you can bet against the Falcons at home. Matt Ryan might be doing a better 2005 Peyton Manning impression this year than 2012 Peyton Manning is. Turner also regains some productivity here.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 8-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 8-7

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 400-201
By Spread: 328-280

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 1 Predictions and Season Preview

2012 NFL Season Preview and Week 1 Picks

Change. This has definitively been a year of change. I finished my graduate studies, and started a new job in a new place. Likewise in the NFL, I have reflected that we have had a big year of change. Peyton Manning, one of the players in NFL history most identifiable with only one team, changed address. Tim Tebow, the biggest story of last year numbers wise, changed teams. Heck, 45% of the Rams roster from 2011 is now out of the NFL (thankfully, but that is still a stunning number). The NFL has also had some major culture changes. Holdouts happened, but were not rewarded. We now live in the post-Bountygate era, but even that has changed in the last few days. Time will tell on that change, of the ability to legally stand up to Roger’s absolute power. And of course, we have a change in referees. This adjustment to our regularly scheduled program may have long reaching effects into the season, but we will see.

Because I am a little rushed on time this year, here are my predictions more succinctly than usual.
 

AFC North:

Ravens 12-4

Bengals 10-6

Steelers 9-7

Browns 4-12

 

The Ravens have some areas that they can slip in, sure. However, the Steelers have implosion written all over them. The offensive line got worse if at all possible, Mike Wallace won’t be Mike Wallace for a few weeks, ditto for Rashard Mendenhall and Big Ben already has a damaged rotator cuff. The defense continues to age and Troy/Harrison has to jump over the cliff at some point. The Bengals are about the same as last year, just do it more consistently. And the Browns stink as usual, with a 28 year old rookie quarterback and a rookie RB who may well get to 3 knee surgeries in 9 months by the end of the season.

 

AFC East:

Patriots 13-3

Bills 9-7

Jets 6-10

Dolphins 5-11

I have trouble seeing 3 losses on the Patriots schedule, truly. They are a great team and also lucked out. The defense will be better, and the offense the same, maybe even a little more explosive. The Bills are sneaky good and that defense will be sharp. I wish they had one more playmaker though, and something other than Chad Pennington 2.0 at QB. The Jets have the biggest implosion potential of any team, even the Cowboys or Steelers. All the ingredients are there, and on top of it unlike the Steelers and Cowboys, the Jets have exactly no playmakers. At all. It could be rough over there. The Dolphins are a nice team, but they clearly said that they are breaking it down to basics with their off season moves (Vontae and Marshall out, Tannehill in). They also have few playmakers (put your hand down Davone Bess, you don’t count).

 
 

AFC South:

Texans 11-5

Titans 7-9

Jags 6-10

Colts 3-13

The Texans win a weak division easily, somewhat because they are good but mostly because each of the other three teams will spend the year learning how to play and win and will be very dangerous in 2013. Warning to the Texans now: I forsee a clear future where they win this division now, but are 4^th in 2013. Andre is getting older, Foster never stays fully healthy, and the defensive stars are gone. Locker, Gabbert, and especially Luck are coming for you Houston. Just not this year.

 

AFC West:

Chiefs 9-7

Chargers 9-7

Raiders 8-8

Broncos 6-10

I have been simming out mini seasons for many teams since I cracked open my copy of Madden 13. I have played almost every team and played against many. And I really like the Chiefs. I don’t want to like them, they have Matt Cassell still playing quarterback for them after all. But their skill positions are solid with the addition of Hillis and the return of JCharles, even if he is only 90% of what he was. The Chiefs also played hard last year despite the Tyler Palko Experience, and losing so many players due to injury. I remember the great game they played in taking down the Pack. The Chargers will start slow (more than likely), get hurt (already there), and go through organizational trama (Norv!), so while they are good, I like the Chiefs to win this. The Raiders I dismiss because they have Carson Palmer. The Broncos….are just not a good team. I would like Peyton to be decent, I really would. But adjusted DVOA says they were a 5.8 win team last year, not an 8 win team. The lost Tebow and Dawkins, and added Peyton. Nice swap overall, but not even to propel them up and out of the basement of this division. Whether he gets hurt or not is almost immaterial. He is terrible outside anyways, and the team surrounding him isn’t good.

NFC East:

Giants 10-6

Eagles 9-7

Cowboys 9-7

Ethnic Slurs 6-10

I really don’t know here. This is a slugging match. I think the Giants win this division because they have the least crap going on behind the scenes, can run and throw, and can rush the passer. I trust them to be decent and consistent. The Cowboys are starting off well, but we all know that can’t stick. They have injury concerns, and drama behind the scenes. The Eagles I just don’t trust. Vick gets older and older, and will get hurt even more. I like Foles but that isn’t a great backup situation. McCoy cannot replicate what he just did, neither can Babin and Trent Cole. Washington will be okay, but they have Shanahan and that limits them. Their secondary scares me. Also, this blog will continue the tradition of ignoring their “nickname”, as it is an ethnic slur and really needs to be changed. 2012 people, we are in the year 2012. I swear karma (and okay, their owner), keep them artificially down year after year when at some point they should be good.

 
 

NFC North:

Packers 12-4

Bears 11-5

Lions 11-5

Vikings 5-11

The Packers are built to rock the regular season, no doubt about it. We’ll get to my post season picks for them in a minute. The Bears I think will be very good with a healthy Cutler and Forte. It is too bad about Johnny Knox, but the reuniting of Cutler with Marshall should be awesome for fantasy owners and the Bears in real life. The Lions will continue to be awesome, and I love the prediction I read on ESPN, “Titus Young and Calvin Johnson combine for over 3000 yards, the first duo to do that since Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce”. The Vikings actually aren’t bad, but two things stand in their way. First, they play in the toughest division, perhaps in sports right now. Second, their health. They will need to play into shape and good health, and probably just won’t be able to get to a point where they are serious competitors in the division. Maybe next year Vikings.

 
 

NFC South:

Saints 11-5

Falcons 10-6

Bucs 6-10

Panthers 6-10 

A nice division. I was ready to give it to the Falcons all the way through the summer, but the vibe around the Saints is not what I expected. It is like the 2007 Pats after Spygate. I smell a tremendous “eff you” season coming from Drew Brees and company. At the very least, I sense a Madden like aggressiveness and desperation on every play. Brees may legitimately press for 6000 yards passing. The fact that the Saints suspensions were overturned recently is telling me that I am right. The Falcons are solid and do well, but because of the North division probably don’t make the playoffs. They do shift into a passing team however. The Bucs learn to play together this year, and the Panthers take some steps forward (Cam works out some kinks) while they take many others back (OL injuries, Steve Smith slows down, etc).

 

NFC West:

Cardinals 9-7

Seahawks 8-8

49ers 7-9

Rams 4-12

The Rams are just immediately out. Injury concerns, new system, new coach, complete lack of talent. They have nothing in terms of receivers at all, and let’s not talk about the run defense. The Seahawks have overachieved for a few years now, and have a rookie at QB. There is no way Lynch repeats what he did either, so despite their good defense I think they fall short. So, I moved onto the Cards and the Niners. I took the team with no QB over the team that was a muffed punt from the Superbowl. But hear me out.  The Cards defense is legitimate. They have Patrick Peterson, who was the best non QB in the entire NFL last year in terms of value added to team wins. Larry Fitzgerald is still Larry Fitzgerald. And Skelton probably better than Kevin Kolb. He won most of his starts last year, and there is something to that. I like a lot of their pieces, and somehow, they pull off a division win. And an immediate first round exit.

   

Playoff Predictions:

AFC Teams: Pats, Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, WC Bills, WC Bengals

NFC Teams: Giants, Packers, Saints, Cards, WC Bears, WC Lions

AFC Title Game: Ravens over Pats. Should have happened last year, did happen two years ago. Flacco takes the last big step forward and becomes a Pro Bowl Quarterback this year.

NFC Title Game: Bears over Packers. I think this matchup may happen in the second round, not the title game. However, this pick more represents the fact that I think these are the NFC’s two best teams. And while the Packers may be better I like how the Bears play them year in and out. They can beat Green Bay, know it, and will apply the Giants gameplan against them.

Super Bowl picks: Bears over Ravens. For the third straight year, an NFC wild card makes the Super Bowl to face an established AFC divisional winner. And for the third straight game a tough game plan and some tough throws from a strong armed quarterback wins the game. Ladies and gentleman, that’s right, Jay Cutler wins the Super Bowl. The Bears have a solid defense, a new weapon in Brandon Marshall, and great special teams. Devin Hester may be involved.

 

Statistical Picks:

Passing Leader: Drew Brees, almost certainly. The Pats and Packers will compete in this race, but they will both have their QBs sitting out games near the end. And Drew Brees is on a “screw you all” campaign as Sean Payton sends him instructions via a fake yahoo email account. Brees might get close to 6000 yards. A darkhorse candidate for this would be Matt Ryan.

 

Rushing Leader: I’m going to go with Ray Rice here. Foster is already hurt, I don’t  believe fully in McCoy, Chris Johnson has a rookie QB, MoJo isn’t going to get full carries for a while so there aren’t many choices left. Even Forte, who I love, will split carries with Michael Bush. DeMarco Murray is a dark horse choice.

Receiving Leader: Calvin Johnson, the easy pick. But talent + opportunity would be hard to fight. And the other candidates (Jennings, White, Welker) have competitors on their own teams. Outside shot at this is AJ Green, he’ll get enough shots at it.

 

Rookie of the Year, offense: I am going to go with Doug Martin, on pure opportunity. Luck and Griffin almost cancel out.

 

Rookie of the Year, defense: Morris Claiborne, if for no other reasons than he will get a few picks on national TV and that will do it.

 

Player of the Year, offense: Drew Brees, on pure production. He might deserve MVP, but due to Bountygate, that will not happen.

Player of the Year, defense: Patrick Peterson. I think he has like 7 INTs, 75 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 return TDs this year. Which, okay, technically wouldn’t count into DPOY discussion, but you know it would anyways.

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers. Boring, but it is the most sensible answer. Drew Brees is going to make this interesting, but I really think the commissioner’s office would fight to make sure no Saints takes home MVP this year. Rodgers will guide them to a lot of victories and have great numbers. Maybe Brady lights it up so much he makes a case for it, but he’s been there twice. A Darkhorse is hard to identify, but I could see a scenario where Calvin flourishes, they lose Stafford for a few games, and Calvin takes it up a notch. That might earn him some votes. But that would be really hard to do. It might require 1800 yards and 20 TDs.

 

 

And now, very truncated..... 
 

Week 1 Picks:

ATL -2.5 over KC. KC is a nice team, but Atlanta is a solid team and KC will be working in multiple players just recovered from ACL tears and also new corners.
 

BUF +3 over NYJ. Stage one of the NYJ meltdown occurs here. Buffalo burns the Jets big.

CHI -9.5 over IND. Luck is a nice player, but most rookies QBs lose their first game, especially against good teams while helming a bad one. Bears win big on a couple of defensive TDs.

 

MIN -3.5 over JAX. The Vikings win a slugfest, and the matchup of the good Vikings pass rush versus the bad Jags O-line is enough for them to pull it out.

HOU -12.5 over MIA. The Texans easily take this game, though the 12.5 is high. See the CHI-IND game as an example of an explanation why.

 

NE -4.5 over TEN. Yeah, why is this a 4.5 point line? I just don’t get it. Young QB versus Belichick. I see 38-10 written all over this.

 

SD -1 over OAK. Yuck. Norv versus Carson. More talent and discipline elsewhere gives the Chargers this W.

 

BAL -6.5 over CIN. Baltimore just outmatches them, though AJ Green manages to have a nice game.

 

PIT -1 over DEN. I just really dislike the Broncos, no explosion there. Might be like a 13-10 game though.

 

GB -5 over SF. I solidly see a double digit win by the Packers here. The 49ers just cannot keep up.

 
ARI -1 over SEA. Slugfest, but Fitzgerald helps them pull away. Might be time for one of those game changing Patrick Peterson plays too…

TB -1 over CAR. Balance and discipline helps contain Cam, who really struggled down the stretch last year.

 

NO -9 over WAS. Saints rolls Washington as they release 8 months of pent up, pissed off emotion. I wouldn’t want to be Washington in this game.

 

PHI -9.5 over CLE. I don’t like Philly, but Cleveland is pathetic. Brandon Weedon is involved.

 

DET -9.5 over STL. STL cannot score. DET scores well. Questions? Thank you and drive through.

 

 

Record last week (referencing my Super Bowl pick):

Straight Up: 0-1

By Spread: 0-1

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 389-197
By Spread: 320-273

Enjoy everyone, and happy football!

MIKE
 

The Lowell Spinners: A Pop Culture Potpourri

            So I just moved to a new city. When you are in an unfamiliar place, you do what the locals say to do, because in the words of Jerry Seinfeld, “you’ve got to do something.” Lowell has some interesting things, but tonight wasn’t feeling like a Quilt Museum visiting, Kerouac scroll seeing, loom observing kind of night. So I took what every third person has said to me and went to see the Lowell Spinners with a friend. This was made easier by the thirty second walk to the stadium and 10 dollar ticket (which I found out was a rip off twice, first when I ascertained that the 6 dollar ticket gets you about the same seats, and then again when we walked out and realized no one watched the entrances and exits after about the 3^rd inning).

            Now, I have been to minor league games before. I have fond memories of the Portland Sea Dogs and Myrtle Beach Pelicans. I even have a hat from the latter, and I don’t wear hats. But I knew these Single A short season affiliate Spinners might be a bit different. From the moment I looked at the game program (which cost 50 cents and was 2 printed pieces of paper stapled together), and saw the sub .300 OPS of most of the players (not their OBP, their OPS), I knew I was in a different world. I have been known as kind of an elitist in terms of the sports I pay attention to: I don’t like college and don’t even get into the Olympics much. I want to see the best play, for big money and big stakes. But this Spinners night turned that on its head.

            My night could best be characterized as creating a large amount of amusement. It started with the fact that there were players named Kendrick Perkins and Pat Light on the team (who I thought was named Matt Light and thus I grew immediately disappointed when my friend pointed out otherwise). Then there were the foam baseballs that were thrown at us between innings from the field, one of which my friend caught. I also loved the $1000 dollar hot dog night we lucked into: a TOTAL of a thousand bucks was stuffed via ones and tens into the foil of the hot dogs. That’s right, on the bun, touching the dogs. The ante was raised after the second inning when they started throwing AND sling shotting hot dogs with dollars in them into the crowd. Sadly, I won none of this cash.

            But the night managed to grow merrier. The Spinners, named presumably after the loom workers of the city, didn’t take the easy route and have a spider as the mascot. Or even a giant loom. Or perhaps a walking spindle. No, a green alligator made his way on the field, with a twin gator. Then Mario and Luigi arrived (no idea the connection), and then the best yet, a giant toothbrush appeared. We think maybe it was a dentistry advertisement but all I know is a giant toothbrush played musical chairs with the Mario Bros and the alligators. Only I never found out who won because when it got down to Mario and Alligator number 1, the stadium guy grabbed the chair and ran away with the two mascots running after him.

            As my mind was Spinning with the all the disparate pop culture references, two things happened. First, the Scooby Doo Mystery Machine (what?) drove around the field throwing t-shirts and then Ice-T (of Law and Order SVU fame) came on the big screen with a “get loud” message for the fans. That one might have been the best because he isn’t even related to kids genres (well, they SHOULDN’T be watching SVU at least). As we left after the “adults versus kids sing off”, which was American Pie versus Who Lives in A Pineapple Under the Sea, my head was reeling in an attempt to reconcile the eras, genres, years, and cultures that had just been mixed together (and I missed many examples).

            However, as I was letting all this wash over my mind on the roof of the adjacent garage (from which we could see directly into the park and hear everything, and makes the 10 dollar ticket a third level of rip off), I came to a strong conclusion. This was FUN. Sports are supposed to have this level of zany fun where such randomness can collide. Kids were yelling like crazy at that game, enjoying every second even though this isn’t a big league situation. I make a lot of fun of baseball for disconnecting with its fans, and fading as America’s pastime. And I will stand behind a lot of that criticism (youtube, MLB, youtube and replay). However, I have failed to give baseball the credit of being the sport that can entertain young kids with gimmicks AND the play on the field. It can create an experience for 6 bucks a ticket. Maybe I’m too jaded from the experience of fighting traffic to Fenway, or watching a 5.5 hour game unfold on ESPN. However, I will say I will be going back to the Spinners soon, as that was some interesting stuff. I will even take it a little less seriously next time. I think I need to balance my obsessive, statistical nature with some Spinners from time to time. So I’ll definitively go back. Probably after they open the gates for free though. 

BLISS

NBA 2012 Playoffs: NBA Finals

2012 NBA Playoffs

Ah, the NBA Finals. It is possibly the best event in sports, especially considering the time of the year. School is out, things feel alive in the world, and we all have time to watch. The Super Bowl is one day, over so quickly. The World Series is occurring at the same time as so many other sports. Basketball manages to drive the intensity up for their Finals, especially because the Stanley Cup Finals are just about over now.  

While I am excited for this, I am very conflicted with the Finals this year, for many reasons. Like last year, I have a clear team to root for. I have liked the Thunder for years. The players are likeable. Durant signed his extension at midnight the day he was eligible. Westbrook keeps his issues under control, and maximizes his athleticism. Harden is among my three favorite players (hey there Kevin Love, Steve Nash), and is entertaining. They are humble, don’t mind playing in a “small market”, and are supportive of each other. The fans care. They have good role players, and are built well as a TEAM.

However, I am upset for other reasons. The Heat are here again, mainly because of the weak East. That Celtics team shouldn’t have gotten past game 5. No one in the East was any good, so the Heat are here again. I’m not mad that the Celtics lost: I’m upset that I have to watch the Heat for another 2 weeks. I also love the current NBA because it is the golden age of point guards. However, we aren’t really seeing that because it is Russell Westbrook (a 2-guard in a point guard’s role) versus Mario freaking Chalmers. In truth we are going to see a lot of James Harden versus Wade handling the ball. This isn’t necessarily bad, and the basketball produced in this series will be great because of it. But it isn’t classic and isn’t what I have been enjoying all year.

I also dislike that there are a lot of misconceptions going on. The first that the Thunder are a better built team. That isn’t true. They are unbalanced in their composition, just like the HEAT. There is overloaded talent at the SG and the SF positions, with no true point guard and no back to the basket scorer. The Thunder have a better bench, some good role players but still aren’t a classically assembled team like the Spurs or Celtics. The Thunder are a better TEAM than the Heat, in terms of communication and understanding each other, utilizing each others’ talent. But it is going to get said a lot this week that the Thunder are a better constructed team, and that isn’t true. There are actually a lot of similarities between the two competitors. Plus, there is the whole, “team name is already a plural word without an s at the end” thing that makes it awkward to say “Durant is a Thunder, Lebron is a Heat”.

This series is also going to get unfairly labeled as a matchup between the youth of the league and as a passing of the torch. Well, let’s be honest: the Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs are several years away from their most recent titles. In terms of scoring titles, headlines, Sportscenter highlights, team wins, and media attention, this has already been the era of the Thunder and Heat, along with the Bulls, for a few years now. And this just in…these teams aren’t young.

The Heat are anchored by 30 year old Wade, and a Bosh/James combo that while still in their twenties have been playing for 9 years. 9 years of experience and mileage isn’t young. Combine that with Turiaf, Battier, Juwan Howard, Mike Miller, etc, the Heat aren’t a young team. Rio is their infusion of youth.

The Thunder may be young numerically: Durant (23), Westbrook (23), Harden (22), and Ibaka (22) sum to 90 years of age. But that is a combined 15 years of NBA experience just with those four. Durant has 5 years, 10000 points, and 3 scoring titles on his resume. Collison has been around, Fisher has 5 rings, 7 Finals appearances, Perkins has a ring and two Finals appearances. That isn’t “young”. They’ve been taken out in the first round. They’ve been to the Western Finals and felt a harsh sense of loss. Are the Thunder fresh, energetic, athletic? Yes, they are. But young, inexperienced? I don’t think so.

Overall this series will be good for the NBA, good for young fans jumping on a team now, people on opposite ends of the Durant/Lebron spectrum (which could be what we hoped Kobe/Lebron, Melo/Lebron, Wade/Lebron could be in terms of rivalry), good for those who like great crowds and arenas (for OKC anyways). But I am a little sad one of the two “older” teams didn’t get in. Then we would have seen how new school matches up with old on the biggest stage.

I won’t waste time holding off my pick until the end. I’ve been consistent with it in each of these previews for the past 5 weeks.

Thunder in 6 games, Durant for MVP.

The Thunder are the better team, better TEAM, have home court advantage with a great home court, had 3 days more rest, don’t have to fly for another week, and have so many little advantages. The only reason I don’t have this done in 5 games is because games 3, 4, and 5 are in Miami. The dumb Finals format makes it hard to win both games at home and then 2 of 3 in the opponent’s arena. It is more likely the Thunder win both at home, then 1 of 3 on the road, then close it out at home. If the series gets to a Game 7, I would take the Thunder then too.

So why, other than my obvious and documented distaste for Lebron and the Heatles, have I made this prediction?

Reason 1: Durant cancels Lebron. This is perhaps the only person that can cancel Lebron’s impact. Durant isn’t the defender Lebron is, but steals better, rebounds a little better, and can score a little better. He will also push Lebron more than Pierce did, and may draw more fouls from Lebron.

Reason 2: The home court. The Thunder arena is among the most ridiculous place I have ever seen in terms of crowd impact. They love this team, and because the Thunder rely on jump shooting, blocks, and running, they feed more than usual on the home crowd. I guarantee the crowd influences two Thunder wins at home.

Reason 3: Durant hasn’t had the big game yet. He has had impressive stretches in the Spurs series, including a great second half in Game 3 to close out the game, and also a great game 6. But he hasn’t dropped the ridiculous 45-50 point game yet, and it is coming. Perhaps in game 3 or 4 in Miami, when they need it most. But that gets them one game guaranteed. Durant has played around 20 playoff games this year, and one of 20 is that ridiculous game for him. I’m waiting for it.

Reason 4: Miami cannot defend PGs. Rondo is wonderful but his effect on the game is passing and penetration, not actually scoring 44 points in a game. Miami made him look even better than he was. I have no idea what Westbrook is going to do to them. And if the Heat switch Wade on Westbrook, Harden torches Rio.

Reason 5: The difference in bench contribution is tremendous. On one hand the Heat built around their superstars by getting old backup swingmen and burnt out big men. It isn’t working, and Lebron/Wade are (successfully) covering for the problems of their bench. The Thunder, however, are able to cover for the sometimes erratic jump shooting that can be their downfall by tremendous role player contributions. Collison, Cook, Fisher all have impact on games, and if you count Harden as a bench player, the advantage is overwhelmingly in the Thunder’s favor. The Celtics also had a weak bench, so the disparity wasn’t shown in the ECF. That won’t be the case this time. The Heat have been pushing their stars hard, and it has to come back to bite them sometime.

Reason 6: Personnel matchup. Perhaps more than any other team, the Thunder have the correct personnel to guard the Heat. Durant will give a good attempt at Lebron, but Thabo, Westbrook, and Harden will have Wade covered no matter how they need to cover him (size, speed, or craftiness). Perkins gets his shot at stopping the end of Lebron’s drives, a phantom Celtic having an impact one last time on Lebron. They can switch pretty much everything, Ibaka has got Bosh handled (I await some weak jumpers by Bosh getting rejected in his face at least once a game), and in general there are options for what they can do.

Reason 7: Comparison by competition. The Heat beat a depleted and frankly bad Knicks team, a not-quite-there Pacer team with no star, and a banged up Celtic team that took them 7 games to finish. The Thunder beat the last 3 Western Conference Champions in the Mavs, Lakers, and Spurs. Those three teams have won 10 of the last 13 titles. The Thunder earned their spot, and looked good in taking those teams out. Moreover, those teams seemed to really respect how good the Thunder are, and be genuinely supportive after those series were over. If their opponents this post season speak accurately to how good the Heat and Thunder truly are, this will be an easy victory for the Thunder.

The only surprise I’ll submit is that Westbrook may push Durant for MVP rights. He’s due for a breakout series, and this is the perfect set up for Russell. Durant will win the Bill Russell trophy…that is how these things work with the superstar getting it no matter what. But Westbrook’s matchup is awesome, and I can see him pushing Durant for it.

 Let the Thunder’s reign begin!

BLISS