NFL 2012 Week 21 Prediction: Super Bowl Sunday

Here we go, Super Bowl weekend approaching. Neither team I thought would be here is here. Somehow I covered both games last week again despite getting the winners wrong. I continue to ponder whether I have the wrong priorities and viewpoint in life.

Ravens +4.5 over 49ers, 27-24

The brothers’ storyline is simply awesome, and only grows as I think more and more about it. And the more and more I think about it, the more and more I am confident the Ravens are going to win. Strangely (because they are fairly similar in style and image projection to the media and public), I have always really liked John and not liked Jim. Jim says things that don’t entirely make sense, benches a QB mid season that is completing 70% of his passes, and continues to feature "I drop easy passes" Vernon Davis on offense. That team seems to be centered around him in the media, even as Kaepernick rises in name value. Willis is a much better than Ray Lewis now and pretty close to where Ray was in his prime, but has none of the external flame and notoriety Ray has.

John has run a great program for a half decade now, much longer than Jim has been in the league. His Raven’s team has continually been successful, going to playoffs and winning a game each year. They have won back to back division titles, no matter how it happened. And truth be told, SF overachieved last year in getting to the NFC title game while BAL deserved to go to the Super Bowl. And looking back clearly and analytically, I think Baltimore beats the Giants last year if they were in the Super Bowl instead of the Pats.

Matched up now, here is what I see: I see a pair of quarterbacks with completely different set ups. Flacco has been around and winning for 5 years. Kaep has been around for about 5 minutes. His career starts can fit on two hands. His total plays in the NFL from starts and sub packages even including preseason work don’t get to a full season’s worth of work. I trust Flacco in big games now, especially with the mix of talent, youth, and experience around him on offense at the skill positions. Kaep is working with Randy Moss, Kyle Williams, and Michael Crabtree which still doesn’t get me excited.

On defense, the 49ers are stout. However, they will get burned on deep routes by these WRs, especially if the Justin Smith injury continues to affect his ability to generate and facilitate pass rush. Baltimore will push that issue and should be able to get a lot of work down the field to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. I expect a 6 for 95 game for each of them. And on the other side, I see Ed Reed prowling around and picking SF at least once. He has had a decently quiet post season and that cannot last. I would not be surprised to see him return one on SF and be a game changer.

SF’s advantages are in running the football and stopping the run, and they should do both well. I see Frank Gore getting around 100 yards and LaMichael James getting 50 total yards and making some meaningful plays. But I really think other advantages, such as the Ravens special teams which graded out as by far the best in the league in the regular season, will spur a Ravens win. Justin Tucker has been awesome; David Akers is a wounded animal meekly crying in the corner. Jacoby Jones is itching for his chance at a big return. Ginn is waiting to get injured and give Kyle Williams another chance to drop some punts. The 49ers do have the best punter in the game (and statistically, one of the best ever in history) in Andy Lee, but I don’t think that will be of much impact here to sway my decision.

One final thing: these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year. Both teams are very different than they are now, especially SF because of the QB change. But I would use it as a template for the family battle. And I walked away from that game impressed with John’s win. I think that is what happens here again. Sometimes older brothers just know what the younger one will do in certain situations (I know from experience). I wish I had their Madden records, I feel like it would be telling.

One last note: I have never felt better about my prediction for teams' scores in a game. Either team can win this and I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers do. But it will be 27-24, 28-23, 27-23, or 28-24. It just has that feel all the way around. 

Good luck everyone. Enjoy the party. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-82

By Spread: 117-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-279
By Spread: 442-376