NFL 2012 Week 21 Prediction: Super Bowl Sunday

Here we go, Super Bowl weekend approaching. Neither team I thought would be here is here. Somehow I covered both games last week again despite getting the winners wrong. I continue to ponder whether I have the wrong priorities and viewpoint in life.

Ravens +4.5 over 49ers, 27-24

The brothers’ storyline is simply awesome, and only grows as I think more and more about it. And the more and more I think about it, the more and more I am confident the Ravens are going to win. Strangely (because they are fairly similar in style and image projection to the media and public), I have always really liked John and not liked Jim. Jim says things that don’t entirely make sense, benches a QB mid season that is completing 70% of his passes, and continues to feature "I drop easy passes" Vernon Davis on offense. That team seems to be centered around him in the media, even as Kaepernick rises in name value. Willis is a much better than Ray Lewis now and pretty close to where Ray was in his prime, but has none of the external flame and notoriety Ray has.

John has run a great program for a half decade now, much longer than Jim has been in the league. His Raven’s team has continually been successful, going to playoffs and winning a game each year. They have won back to back division titles, no matter how it happened. And truth be told, SF overachieved last year in getting to the NFC title game while BAL deserved to go to the Super Bowl. And looking back clearly and analytically, I think Baltimore beats the Giants last year if they were in the Super Bowl instead of the Pats.

Matched up now, here is what I see: I see a pair of quarterbacks with completely different set ups. Flacco has been around and winning for 5 years. Kaep has been around for about 5 minutes. His career starts can fit on two hands. His total plays in the NFL from starts and sub packages even including preseason work don’t get to a full season’s worth of work. I trust Flacco in big games now, especially with the mix of talent, youth, and experience around him on offense at the skill positions. Kaep is working with Randy Moss, Kyle Williams, and Michael Crabtree which still doesn’t get me excited.

On defense, the 49ers are stout. However, they will get burned on deep routes by these WRs, especially if the Justin Smith injury continues to affect his ability to generate and facilitate pass rush. Baltimore will push that issue and should be able to get a lot of work down the field to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. I expect a 6 for 95 game for each of them. And on the other side, I see Ed Reed prowling around and picking SF at least once. He has had a decently quiet post season and that cannot last. I would not be surprised to see him return one on SF and be a game changer.

SF’s advantages are in running the football and stopping the run, and they should do both well. I see Frank Gore getting around 100 yards and LaMichael James getting 50 total yards and making some meaningful plays. But I really think other advantages, such as the Ravens special teams which graded out as by far the best in the league in the regular season, will spur a Ravens win. Justin Tucker has been awesome; David Akers is a wounded animal meekly crying in the corner. Jacoby Jones is itching for his chance at a big return. Ginn is waiting to get injured and give Kyle Williams another chance to drop some punts. The 49ers do have the best punter in the game (and statistically, one of the best ever in history) in Andy Lee, but I don’t think that will be of much impact here to sway my decision.

One final thing: these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year. Both teams are very different than they are now, especially SF because of the QB change. But I would use it as a template for the family battle. And I walked away from that game impressed with John’s win. I think that is what happens here again. Sometimes older brothers just know what the younger one will do in certain situations (I know from experience). I wish I had their Madden records, I feel like it would be telling.

One last note: I have never felt better about my prediction for teams' scores in a game. Either team can win this and I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers do. But it will be 27-24, 28-23, 27-23, or 28-24. It just has that feel all the way around. 

Good luck everyone. Enjoy the party. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-82

By Spread: 117-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-279
By Spread: 442-376

NFL 2012 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Weekend

I went 1-3 heads up and 3-1 against the spread last week. Read that again, and tell me it doesn’t mean I have a real problem in how I am starting to see things. That doesn’t even make sense. I’ll take it, but still. Jeez.

Only two games this week, and only 3 left in the season. Both should be good though, and nicely feature opposing styles of play. For things looking toward the future, right now the AFC is -2.5 over the NFC in the Superbowl. Just saying. Speculating, you could say. 

NFC Title Game – Falcons +5.5 over Niners, 24-22

-The Niners are probably better. I’ll admit that I’m mostly doing this for the points, because in a hotly contested NFC title game, 5.5 is just too much to ignore. But Atlanta does have quite a few things going for them. SF has to travel East, Atlanta is so good at home, and the Niners do have a QB that has fewer than 10 starts EVER going against a solid vet off his breakthrough playoff win. Matt Ryan is actually in a very similar place to where Peyton was in 2006, when he finally advanced to the Superbowl.

The Seahawks nearly beat the Falcons, and I fully believe Seattle is better than SF (as evidenced by the beatdown served by the ‘Hawks a few weeks ago). So yeah, I’m rolling with Atlanta here. And the biggest reasons why are: A. Justin Smith still isn’t healthy and B. Seattle could cover Roddy and Julio for the most part and still couldn’t win, but SF won’t even come close. Gonzalez is neutralized, but the receivers won’t be and Atlanta (gulp) goes to the Superbowl.

AFC Title Game – Ravens +9.5 over Pats, 27-31

-Calm down, all my NE friends. It is just a cover. These teams play it way too close most times to lay 9.5 with any confidence. The Patriots are by far the healthier team (they are missing Gronk sure, but I think that Ravens missing Webb and having Yanda, Lewis, Suggs, and Ellerbe slowed by injuries are in worse shape). The Pats are at home having played one game versus a non physical foe. The Ravens haven’t had a break, and played two playoffs games to get here including a double OT freezing cold game in Denver then flying to Foxboro. Much respect to the Ravens, and I am giving them a cover here, but I just don’t see Brady losing this game.

It is simple. The Pats beat the Ravens (barely) last year in the playoffs. The Pats are better now (because of Talib, Hightower, Chandler Jones, and Dennard). The Ravens are about the same, I guess, just minus Webb and Ray Rice 2012 seems about 95% of Ray Rice 2011. The Ravens beat NE (barely) 4 months ago but we are a better team now due to experience for the younger players, while the Ravens have been on a downward turn. And remember, Brady, the winningest QB in playoff history, at home, where he is dominant. Yup, close win but Ravens cover. And no one is allowed to say “Bernard Karmell Pollard”.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-80

By Spread: 115-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-277
By Spread: 440-376