NFL 2014 Week 14 Predictions

Week 14 Predictions

Bengals -3 over Steelers, 24-20

-I don’t believe the Steelers are a good team, especially on defense. The Bengals at least have some pieces. Big game from Bell though, matched by Green.

Colts -3.5 over Browns, 28-24

-This has nothing to do with the Hoyer start, which I agree with. The Colts are just better and know they need to win a few more games even in their generally pathetic division. Hilton taken away by Haden though.  

Lions -9.5 over Bucs, 35-20

-Start your Lions WRs!

Texans -6 over Jags, 24-9

-Texans are a competent football team. That’s about what I got.

Vikings -6 over Jets, 27-6

-The Jets are not a competent football team. The Vikings are sneakily competent and a good sleeper for next year assuming some growth and more consistency. Love the Vikings DST here.

Saints -9.5 over Panthers, 34-13

-These teams are going in the opposite directions, and, as always, I’m riding NO.

Rams -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 23-12

-The Rams are like the Vikings, just need that QB. I would pay money to watch Mariota on this team.

Broncos -10 over Bills, 31-14

-I don’t like it, but this will indeed be ugly. The only hope is the mismatch between DEN’s OLine and the BUF DLine….but that doesn’t make up for all the issues EVERYWHERE else in Denver’s favor.

Raiders +8 over 49ers, 13-19

-Yes, I’m serious. The 49ers aren’t good, and are a few bad breaks from the team revolting on Jim Harbaugh. Just cover baby.

Seahawks +2 over Eagles, 24-20

-Seahawks are getting points in any scenario, and I’m taking them despite everything else going on. Mark Sanchez still terrifies me.

Patriots -3.5 over Chargers, 36-23

-Pats don’t lose two in a row.

Packers -12.5 over Falcons, 31-17

-Domed war weather team going to Green Bay in winter. Yup. Rodgers all but ends the MVP discussion with ANOTHER huge game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 5-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 96-56

By Spread: 78-73

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 763-411
By Spread: 616-543

NFL 2014 Week 13 Predictions

Week 13 Predictions

Lions -7 over Bears, 30-17

-The Lions are a better team than their record over the last month or so. They right the ship here.

Cowboys -3 over Eagles, 27-20

-Mark Sanchez in a big game on national TV on the road….yup.

Seahawks +1 over 49ers, 24-22

-I’ve always been on this side of the ledger. This 49ers team is weak. Seahawks pounce.

Ravens -5.5 over Chargers, 30-23

-The Patriots are 1 of 2 teams in the top 10 in offense, defense, and special teams. The other team is the Baltimore Ravens.

Colts -9.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 34-16

-This line couldn’t be too much. Colts will get it right here and Luck pushes an absurd yardage total.

Giants -2.5 over Jags, 26-13

-Giants are a bad team, but not as bad as Jacksonville is. The offense can produce some points, enough to win.

Rams -7 over Raiders, 17-9

-Rams are a touch little team. Raiders got their win and are about to fully pack it in for the season.

Bengals -4 over Bucs, 23-14

-I will not be watching this game. Bengals take care of business, but that’s about it here.

Saints +3.5 over Steelers, 31-30

-I don’t know what to do with the Saints. I have no idea. So I am taking the 3.5 points and Brees over Ben.

Cards -2.5 over Falcons, 20-16

-Ugh. Probably will be a painful game to watch.

Pats +3 over Packers, 34-30

-If I get points with the Pats, I’m taking it. The offenses are very close in ability. The defenses are not.

Chiefs +1.5 over Broncos, 27-24

-I have a feeling. The Chiefs are equipped to beat this team, especially with the offense line issues the Broncos are having.

Fins -5.5 over Jets, 26-6

-Yes please. Lock of the week.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 89-50

By Spread: 73-65

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 756-405
By Spread: 611-535

NFL 2013 Week 2 Predictions

Chargers +8.5 over Eagles, 20-27

-That’s just a lot of points to cover.

Ravens -6.5 over Browns, 24-16

-Brandon Weeden involved? Brandon Weeden involved.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Texans -10 over Titans, 27-13

-Titans aren’t good. Jake Locker is quickly joining a group that needs to get together for drinks and enjoy their starts while they can. (Weeden, Locker, Ponder, Gabbert, and captain of the group, Josh Freeman).

Rams +6 over Falcons, 24-20

-Injuries man, injuries. The Rams are legit anyways. Daryl Richardson is a sneaky play this week. I am playing him over Gore in two leagues.

Pack -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-20

-Strongly under consideration for my Eliminator pick of the week. Based on what we saw last week, and the fact that there is zero chance Aaron Rodgers is letting them go 0-2, this should be an easy win for GB.

Cowboys +3.5 over Chiefs, 22-24

-The Cowboys lose painfully in the last minute, but it is good enough to cover.

Bears -6 over Vikings, 27-16

-The secret is out…the Vikings aren’t very good.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 34-17

-What games were everyone watching last week for this to be a 3.5 point line? The Saints beat a good Falcons team…and the Bucs got humiliated by the Jets. This could be a romp.

Lions -2 over Cards, 37-24

-I actually have respect for how well the Cards played last week, but I don’t know if that is repeatable, especially if Fitz is limited. The Lions on the other hand are this good, and could have scored 60 points last week if not for stupid issues and random events.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders -6 - Jags +6, eww. That’s it, no pick, just an icky feeling. They should black this game out on ESPN’s scrolling bottom line.

Giants +4.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Just a feeling.

Seahawks -3 over 49ers, 27-19

-More than a feeling.

Bengals -7 over Steelers, 31-10

-Emotionally invested. They are my AFC pick after all. Plus, you know, the Steelers are bad AND hurt.

Record last week:
Straight Up: 10-5 (66.7%)
By Spread: 8-7 (53.3%)

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87 (64%)
By Spread: 126-110 (53.4%)

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 544-284 (65.7%)
By Spread: 451-383 (54.1%)

NFL 2012 Week 21 Prediction: Super Bowl Sunday

Here we go, Super Bowl weekend approaching. Neither team I thought would be here is here. Somehow I covered both games last week again despite getting the winners wrong. I continue to ponder whether I have the wrong priorities and viewpoint in life.

Ravens +4.5 over 49ers, 27-24

The brothers’ storyline is simply awesome, and only grows as I think more and more about it. And the more and more I think about it, the more and more I am confident the Ravens are going to win. Strangely (because they are fairly similar in style and image projection to the media and public), I have always really liked John and not liked Jim. Jim says things that don’t entirely make sense, benches a QB mid season that is completing 70% of his passes, and continues to feature "I drop easy passes" Vernon Davis on offense. That team seems to be centered around him in the media, even as Kaepernick rises in name value. Willis is a much better than Ray Lewis now and pretty close to where Ray was in his prime, but has none of the external flame and notoriety Ray has.

John has run a great program for a half decade now, much longer than Jim has been in the league. His Raven’s team has continually been successful, going to playoffs and winning a game each year. They have won back to back division titles, no matter how it happened. And truth be told, SF overachieved last year in getting to the NFC title game while BAL deserved to go to the Super Bowl. And looking back clearly and analytically, I think Baltimore beats the Giants last year if they were in the Super Bowl instead of the Pats.

Matched up now, here is what I see: I see a pair of quarterbacks with completely different set ups. Flacco has been around and winning for 5 years. Kaep has been around for about 5 minutes. His career starts can fit on two hands. His total plays in the NFL from starts and sub packages even including preseason work don’t get to a full season’s worth of work. I trust Flacco in big games now, especially with the mix of talent, youth, and experience around him on offense at the skill positions. Kaep is working with Randy Moss, Kyle Williams, and Michael Crabtree which still doesn’t get me excited.

On defense, the 49ers are stout. However, they will get burned on deep routes by these WRs, especially if the Justin Smith injury continues to affect his ability to generate and facilitate pass rush. Baltimore will push that issue and should be able to get a lot of work down the field to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. I expect a 6 for 95 game for each of them. And on the other side, I see Ed Reed prowling around and picking SF at least once. He has had a decently quiet post season and that cannot last. I would not be surprised to see him return one on SF and be a game changer.

SF’s advantages are in running the football and stopping the run, and they should do both well. I see Frank Gore getting around 100 yards and LaMichael James getting 50 total yards and making some meaningful plays. But I really think other advantages, such as the Ravens special teams which graded out as by far the best in the league in the regular season, will spur a Ravens win. Justin Tucker has been awesome; David Akers is a wounded animal meekly crying in the corner. Jacoby Jones is itching for his chance at a big return. Ginn is waiting to get injured and give Kyle Williams another chance to drop some punts. The 49ers do have the best punter in the game (and statistically, one of the best ever in history) in Andy Lee, but I don’t think that will be of much impact here to sway my decision.

One final thing: these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year. Both teams are very different than they are now, especially SF because of the QB change. But I would use it as a template for the family battle. And I walked away from that game impressed with John’s win. I think that is what happens here again. Sometimes older brothers just know what the younger one will do in certain situations (I know from experience). I wish I had their Madden records, I feel like it would be telling.

One last note: I have never felt better about my prediction for teams' scores in a game. Either team can win this and I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers do. But it will be 27-24, 28-23, 27-23, or 28-24. It just has that feel all the way around. 

Good luck everyone. Enjoy the party. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-82

By Spread: 117-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-279
By Spread: 442-376