NFL 2013 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Seahawks +3 over Broncos, 37-14

-The Broncos are wearing orange for the Super Bowl. They are 0-3 in Super Bowls in that outfit. The Seahawks are 2-0 this year in their white top, navy blue bottom road outfits, both times winning by 23 points exactly.

So, obviously the 'Hawks are winning by 23 points, and all is right with the world. Okay, so it will probably be more complicated by that.

Here is the deal: the best comp to this game is the 2002-2003 title game. Defensive monsters Tampa Bay plays Rich Gannon’s cerebral offense and Oakland. Tampa had a really athletic, creatively schemed defense. Rich Gannon was an aging quarterback, considered an offensive genius. He had some limited physical abilities, but overall used his mind and knowledge of schemes to great effect. Denver's receivers are really young while Oakland's were really seasoned, but overall the comparison works. And of course, Tampa Bay romped that Super Bowl with numerous picks and generally causing mayhem with Gannon's timing and productivity. 

Here’s a great stat: there have been 7 teams to set the record for most points in season. All 7 failed to win the title. 2007 Patriots, 1998 Vikings, so many other high scoring teams. Perhaps it is because those teams play 3 games in 5 weeks before the big game and get out of rhythm. Maybe other teams figure out how to better scheme for them. Maybe it is just hard to maintain that pace.

The best player on the field is Manning, it is pretty hard to debate that. The next best 6 players are from Seattle. Sherman, Earl Thomas, Lynch, Bennett, Chancellor, Wilson. Seattle is stacked on each line. They are healthy, getting their only injured player (Harvin) back, reinforcing their only true weakness, WR. WR is the only place Seattle is completely outclassed by Denver, and defending WRs is coincidentally Seattle’s specialty.

Denver takes advantage of matchups. D. Thomas is an athletic freak, but Sherman can stay with him. Decker takes advantage of unorganized second CBs or FSs, but Seattle will stay disciplined with him. Welker won’t find any friendly lanes inside, and the corners and safeties can get to him outside on those rub routes. Julius Thomas kills many matchups like Gronk and Graham do, but we’ve already seen what Seattle does to athletic TEs. Jimmy Graham was barely existent in the SEA-NO game. Both safeties and most of their LBs can detach into coverage and take Julius out of play. Seattle is about to make Denver’s advantage to being a normal matchup at most. And if Seattle has to win this game by stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will take that path willingly.

Denver’s only real major advantage besides QB seems to be on the interior of the defensive line. They match up well against Seattle’s interior line and Knighton should dominate there. But otherwise, the matchups predict a draw or Seattle victory.

The weather either doesn’t affect the game at all, or favors Seattle. There isn’t really a scenario where Denver benefits from the conditions unless it was 70 and sunny with no wind. Believe me, I lived in New York City for 4 years: it won't be 70 and sunny with no wind in February. 

Seattle’s DVOA is so far and away superior to Denver’s, it really puts this game into context. Seattle’s total was 40.1% to Denver’s 32.8%. Denver wins on offense 33.7%to 9.4%, but gets creamed on Defense and Special Teams (25.8% to .2% and 4.8% to -1.1%). And Denver’s special teams regresses some from its already negative value because Prater’s advantage home/road disappears here.

So really, considering the injuries on the Denver O-Line and their shoddy secondary (especially with Harvin returning), and the Seattle advantage on Special Teams, I expect this to be a rout. The 3 points is a free play, and really the +125/+130 is a gift. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 124-72
By Spread: 100-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 663-355
By Spread: 537-470

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465

NFL 2013 Week 16 Predictions

Texans +10.5 over Broncos, 21-31

-Just a covering situation. The Broncos have this swish cheese defense right now that probably keeps the Texans in the game.

Fins -2.5 over Bills,

-I believe in the 6^th seed bound Miami Dolphins. And I believe in Ryan Tannehill.

Bengals -8.5 over Vikings,

-8.5 is a lot. I feel dirty. Giovani Bernard has a big game here though.

Saints +3 over Panthers, 27-26

-Just taking the points. The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I think they burst the Panthers’ bubble again here.

Jags +5 over Titans, 20-16

-What is so different about these teams that there is a 5 point line, IN Jacksonville? I believe in Gus Bradley, and every game without Mojo is actually a good thing for Jacksonville at this point.

Seahawks -10.5 over Cards, 34-6

-Love the Cards, but not with all these injuries. I’m sitting every Cardinal I have because this is probably going to get ugly.

Lions -9.5 over Giants, 30-17

-Giants are done, and as bad as the Lions have been lately, they need this game. It is go time. If the Lions don’t win this, it’s over for them.

Pats +2.5 over Ravens, 21-20

-Pats getting points versus a team that may not have Rice or Flacco? I’ll just take them and know I’m covering.

Chargers -10 over Raiders, 31-13

-Such a bad defense, and the Chargers need this.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Packers -2.5 over Steelers, 24-21

-A team that needs it versus a team that does not.

49ers -13.5 over Falcons, 20-6

-The Falcons need to actively be trying to lose, and this should be accomplished by halftime here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:
Straight Up: 102-61
By Spread: 84-80

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 641-344
By Spread: 521-453

NFL 2013 Week 14 Predictions

Bills +3 over Bucs, 19-17

-Two bad teams with potential, so a FG seems right. That’s one road FG underdog I am taking this week….

Pats -11 over Browns, 30-16

-Who’s playing QB for the Browns? And at home too?

Lions +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I truly believe the Lions are better. And odds are sooner or later Foles throws that first pick (that isn’t called back on a stupid penalty). This is the second time I am taking a FG underdog on the road.

Colts +6.5 over Bengals, 20-22

-Just too many points for an Andrew Luck team.

Chiefs -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-17

-As Bill Simmons pointed out in his Cousin Sal podcast, the Chiefs’ winning this week means that they clinch the 5 seed and can rest the remaining part of the regular season. Weird.

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Third time here I am taking the FG over a home team, but in close games what choice do I have?

Ravens -7 over Vikings, 20-12

-Vikings should be ashamed of themselves, going 1-0-1 the last few weeks. They will start to lose soon, as they should.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders +3 over Jets, 17-3

-Make that four times….

Broncos -11.5 over Titans, 31-14

-Don’t like it, but I am taking the layup.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Giants +3 over Chargers, 27-26

-Make that five times….

Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 16-13

-Make that six times…..Seattle is just better

Rams +6 over Cards, 13-17

-Reports of Palmer possibly not playing are making me nervous.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 89-51
By Spread: 75-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 628-334
By Spread: 512-439

NFL 2013 Week 13 Predictions

Lions -6 over Packers, 31-20

-SO excited this is under 7. Megatron is going to put up NUMBERS here.

Cowboys -9 over Raiders, 30-13

-Raiders are not very good, and the Cowboys are finally on the right track here.

Chiefs +6.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-Taking the points. I think the Chiefs have learned from some hurdles the last two weeks, while the Broncos just are falling back to normality.

Colts -4 over Titans, 24-16

-This will be the last week I keep the faith in Luck. I won’t go against him the rest of the year if this goes badly, but I won’t be on the train either.

Bucs +9.5 over Panthers, 20-24

-Purely a cover situation, both teams are now actually playing decently.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 21-20

-Carson Palmer is like an untrustworthy exGF. It is a bad idea to trust them again, you wince, you try not to, and somehow you decide to do it again. Carson…this is your last chance. Don’t betray my trust.

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 24-12

-I trust Tannehill. I don’t trust Geno. I trust Rex not to smartly play Simms over Geno. Questions?

49ers -7.5 over Rams, 24-6

-I don’t like the Niners. But I REALLY don’t like the Cunningham/Klemens-led Rams here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -8 over Texans, 38-17

-I am SO excited. Can someone say “tease with the Lions/Packers game”?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Bengals +2.5 over Chargers, 31-23

-Bengals should light up that horrid defense, right?

Giants -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-Oh, YEAH!

Saints +6.5 over Seahawks, 30-31

-Just cover. And the Seahawks have kept losing cornerbacks like crazy. Don’t be surprised if the Saints just pull this out. Still, I wouldn’t go out on a limb against the Seahawks at home.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-5

By Spread: 6-4

Record this year:
Straight Up: 79-49
By Spread: 68-61

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 618-332
By Spread: 505-434

NFL 2013 Week 12 Predictions

Panthers -4.5 over Dolphins, 26-14

-A lot of letdown potential, but they should handle the Dolphins.

Jags +10.5 over Texans, 14-17

-The Texans don’t get 10 points over anyone right now.

Vikings +4.5 over Packers, 20-21

-Tolzien makes terrified.

Ravens -3.5 over Jets, 20-11

-Ravens are a better team, the Jets are mostly smoke and mirrors.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Chargers +4.5 over Chiefs, 23-24

-Just because they play teams close every single time.

Lions -9.5 over Bucs, 31-21

-MEGATRON.

Colts +3.5 over Cards, 20-19

-Andrew Luck for the rest of his career, when given points, is going to be an automatic play for me. It just became a rule.

Giants PK over Cowboys, 37-34

-Oh boy.

Patriots +2.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Broncos are probably the safter bet, but I’m going with a combination of “Brady is 9-4 versus Manning, the Pats don’t lose at home, the Pats don’t lose two in a row, the Pats are insulted to be home dogs” kicking in for this game.

49ers -4.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-13

-Damn, I can’t pick against the 49ers this week because they play the other team I think the public overvalues. Kaep might actually have a good passing day here. This might be painful to watch.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-4
By Spread: 5-5

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 75-44
By Spread: 62-57

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 614-327
By Spread: 499-430

NFL 2013 Week 11 Predictions

Eagles -4 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-21

-Foles and Desean Jackson are awesome plays here in weekly leagues.

Cards -9.5 over Jags, 24-13

-Is it safe to guarantee a defensive touchdown? Well, I’m doing it anyways.

Bengals -6 over Browns, 20-10

-Bengals are limping but still a decent team. I think.

Lions -1 over Steelers, 35-14

Hasn’t happened since 1955, but it is happening this year. Lions win in the Steel City. Megatron goes OFF.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick.

Chargers -1 over Dolphins, 27-20

-Chargers are the better team. Also, they haven’t recently lost two linemen to bullying issues.

Giants -4.5 over Packers, 24-14

-Weird. But I guess this is where I am going?

Seahawks -12 over Vikings, 30-9

-Struggling to see any scenario where the Vikings can win. Or come close. Or should even show up.

-Best Eliminator Pick.

Saints -3.5 over 49ers, 31-16

-Saints aren’t losing this game at home. And 49ers aren’t that great. And Brees has a monstrous day.

Chiefs +9.5 over Broncos, 27-24

-Chiefs are ready to go, they have all these exciting plays ready to go that they’ve been hoarding, and they are going to throw everything in the world at Peyton’s knees/ankles.

Patriots +1.5 over Panthers, 24-16

-Pats will struggle to get 24, but that 24 will be more than the Panthers can muster. Plus the Panthers get the “week after someone plays the Seahawks or Niners they are too beat up to compete physically” after effect.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-4
By Spread: 6-3

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 69-40
By Spread: 57-52

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 608-323
By Spread: 494-425

NFL 2013 Week 10 Predictions

Steelers -3 over Bills, 24-20

-Ends Buffalo’s season, pretty much.

Bengals -1 over Ravens, 24-20

-I think we know who both teams are, even without Geno Adkins.

Lions pk over Bears, 31-23

-Bears are actually a good team, but the Lions are losing this being both healthier and coming off a bye. Megatron will have a huge game as usual. And I’m not sure Cutler coming back is a good thing.

Titans -12.5 over Jags, 27-12

-Yeah, this could be bad.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -5 over Falcons, 30-23

-I think the Seahawks get the offense on track here, and the Falcons complete the “completely and irrevocably fall apart” they started versus the Panthers.

Colts -9.5 over Rams, 27-14

-TY Hilton. I wouldn’t heavily bet on this cover, but it is probably an easy win straight up.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Panthers +6.5 over 49ers, 26-31

-Just cover please.

Chargers and Broncos….OVER

Cards -1 over Texans,

-Texans season is over, they know it, and the Case Keenum dream run must end. It probably does so against the NFL’s best defense. You heard me, the NFL’s best defense. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-9-dvoa-ratings

Saints -7 over Cowboys, 41-29

-The Saints lost last week. They play in a dome this week. They score a LOT of points. Questions?

Don’t touch Miami-Tampa with a ten foot pole.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6
By Spread: 4-9

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 64-36
By Spread: 51-49

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 598-315
By Spread: 494-425

NFL 2013 Week 9 Predictions

Bengals -3 over Dolphins, 27-20

-I like the Fins, but this probably ends the competitive portion of their season. Mike Wallace would normally take advantage the Bengals being without Leon Hall, but that would require Mike Wallace to be conscious and try.

Falcons +7.5 over Panthers, 26-27

-Panthers win, but 7.5 is about a half point too much.

Cowboys -9.5 over Vikings, 31-13

-I am comfortable with laying almost 10 points with Tony Romo, I am comfortable with laying almost 10 points with Tony Romo…..

Saints -4.5 over Jets, 30-10

-A line I don’t understand, but will embrace.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Titans -3.5 over Rams, 24-16

-Titans are a tough little team, and the Rams aren’t nearly as good as they almost looked Monday night.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Chiefs -3.5 over Bills, 17-10

-After 6 straight covers, the Chiefs have dropped 2 in a row. That is breaking now, and the Chiefs get a half dozen sacks.

Chargers +1 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-23

-Yes please. How are the Slurs favored here?

Raiders over Eagles, 26-11

-Man it makes me pained to choose Pryor for anything but a tattoo artist recommendation, but I’m doing it here. Yes I predicted 11 points.

Seahawks -15 over Bucs, 38-16

-Schiano fired, no question. I like Glennon, but this might be embarrassing.

Ravens -3 over Browns, 23-17

-A “we need this” team versus a “it would be nice” team.

Patriots -7 over Steelers, 26-13

-Pats are winning winnable games, the Steelers are losing winnable games. Pretty clear to me.

Colts -2 over Texans, 24-13

-2? 2?! 2! Take it! Run!

Packers -7.5 over Bears, 31-20

-Too many injuries to overcome, and Rodgers is in 2006 Brady mode (And Nelson/Boykins is still better than Caldwell/Doug Gabriel).

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-0
By Spread: 5-3

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 57-30
By Spread: 47-40

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 591-309
By Spread: 490-416

NFL 2013 Week 8 Predictions

Saints -10.5 over Bills, 37-13

-Thad Lewis, no way. They are going to face a real team now, rested off a bye. Saints rout this.

Lions -2.5 over Cowboys, 31-26

-Megatron is transformed again. Cowboys are really dinged up, and this is coming back to the mean soon.

Pats -6.5 over Fins, 27-20

-I’m pretty sure with Tannehill dinged up and Gronk on a better page with Brady this will even out. Plus, you know, the Pats don’t lose two in a row.

Jags +17.5 over 49ers, 17-30

-Just too many points. 49ers should win easily. 

Raiders +3.5 over Steelers, 20-19
-This just feels like a game they give away. Also, the Raiders are 12th on defense. That's right, 12th.

Bengals -6.5 over Jets, 19-10

-Jets aren’t good. I really think the Bengals prove it here, even if it is a slug fest.

Ethnic Slurs +14 over Broncos, 24-34

-Just the points, unlikely they win with that swish cheese defense in the nation’s capital. RG3 probably has a big fantasy day.

Packers -9.5 over Vikings, 30-10

-Not enough points on this earth could take me to take THAT dysfunction right now.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Seahawks over Rams, 31-6

-Well, we will have most of our Monday night free to stand in line for Assassin’s Creed IV!

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-5
By Spread: 4-6

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 49-30
By Spread: 42-37

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 583-309
By Spread: 485-413

NFL 2013 Week 7 Predictions

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs, 20-12

-It’s not about Julio and Roddy. It’s about Glennon and Schiano.

Bengals +3.5 over Lions, 24-23

-Just a matchup thing. The Bengals do great against pass offenses.

Fins -7.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Tighter if it is Thad Lewis. A romp if it is Matt Flynn.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -4 over Jets, 38-13

-I feel it coming. It is almost there!

Jags +7.5 over Chargers, 20-19

-Who is feeling a standard Norv Turner letdown? Wait, he got fired? That’s embarrassing. Um, who is feeling a feisty Jags team that is firing the ball downfield each play and is playing a West Coast team going East on a short week?!

Bears -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-17

-I’m literally unable to hold in my excitement about Brandon Marshall’s fantasy day. I am sitting here quivering and whooped aloud twice while typing this.

Packers -9.5 over Browns, 24-13

-Look up what happened last year when the Packers were without their two best WRs…yeah, Rodgers did just fine. He’s, as Nate Ravitz this week on the Fantasy Focus Football called him, Aaron Flippin’ Rodgers. Against Brandon Weeden. And THERE'S Norv Turner. He was hiding on me for a minute. 

Chiefs -6.5 over Texans, 20-6

-Case Keenum anyone?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Colts +7.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-I just…I don’t….leave me alone. I love Andrew Luck. Jim Irsay tackles Manning on the field. Reggie Wayne catches 17 balls. Unicorns.

Vikings +3.5 over Giant¸23-14

-JASSSSSHHHHH FREEMANNNNN everyone!

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-2
By Spread: 5-5

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 44-25
By Spread: 38-31

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 578-304
By Spread: 481-407

NFL 2013 Week 6 Predictions

Lions -2.5 over Browns, 27-23
-The Lions, assuming Calvin plays, are a much better team than Cleveland. The Browns have a legit defense, but can't score with Detroit. 

Staying away from bad-bad matchups in NYJ-PIT and PHI-TB, and the uncertainty over Peterson's status for CAR-MIN makes me want to be away from that either. 

Bengals -7.5 over Bills, 30-6
-Thad Lewis? Should be a romp, even with Byrd's return to Buffalo's secondary. 
-Best Eliminator Pick

Raiders +10 over Chiefs, 17-26
-Should be an easy win, but the Chiefs probably shouldn't be laying this many points against anyone. If they cover, it will be because of defensive or special team TDs. 

Rams +7.5 over Texans, 23-24
-Way too many points. A pure upset wouldn't surprise me here. 

Packers -3.5 over Ravens, 31-22
-The Ravens continue to have injuries mount, and I don't think they can score with Green Bay anyways. 

Jags +27.5 over Broncos, 17-30
-A win, just not a romp. Justin Blackmon has a big game. Some guy named Manning does too, but I don't think anyone owns him in fantasy though. 

Seahawks -13.5 over Titans, 27-12
-No Locker, the Fitzpatrick rule is in effect. Seattle's DEF/ST is a great play. 

Pats -2.5 over Saints, 34-30
-Saints aren't the same on the road in colder weather, and the Pats don't lose two in a row. That simple. If the Pats lose, I fully anoint the Saints as my favorite in the NFC and probably overall and finally readjust my thinking of the Pats as an elite team. I admit I am borderline on that topic already. 

Cowboys -5.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-13
-Is there a reason this is in the Vegas zone and not a full 7-9 point line? Just RGIII respect? Oh well, take it and run. The Washington defense is horrible and the Cowboys are a competent football team with an explosive offense. 
-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Colts -1.5 over Chargers, 30-24
-Probably a good game, but the start of Andrew Luck dominating in prime time games. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-4
By Spread: 5-4
Record this year: 
Straight Up: 36-23
By Spread: 33-26

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 570-302
By Spread: 476-402