Week 21 Predictions: Superbowl Sunday
Pats -2 over the Seahawks, 24-20
-I had the Saints over the Patriots in the
Preseason. Essentially what the Packers actually were this year is what the
Saints were in my head in August. If the Packers were here in the Superbowl,
I’d be taking them. They proved they could beat the Patriots, and with two
weeks for Rodgers’ leg to heal, I think they would have done it again. However,
this matchup ended up being totally different from the outline I had in my
head. But first, before anything, I want to return here:
I wrote that almost two years ago, my
favorite piece ever. It was a comparison piece on the Spurs and Patriots
(defensive years turned to offense, Duncan and Brady, Pop and Belichick, new X
Factors in Kawhi and Gronk). At the end, I set the over under at 2.5 Spurs/Pats
titles from that point forward. Well, I am going to cheat and give the Spurs
1.5 titles over the last 2 years (that one Ray Allen 3….ughhhhh). The Pats can
make me prophetic right here and now by giving me the 2.5 titles since I wrote that.
Let’s clear Deflategate , shall we? I don’t
have any idea how this will affect them. Let’s examine two “Patriots are facing
off field controversy and media scrutiny” results:
In 2007, early in the season the Pats were
punished as a part of the Spygate incident. They would lose public face, a
draft pick, and a decent chunk of money. Of course, they ran off a 16-0 record
while putting up 38-38-38-34-34-48-49-52 points in the next 8 weeks following the
punishment. I think they responded just fine to that incident in the short term
in terms of game performance. The long term was of course, they lost the Super
Bowl and then Tom Brady for a year due to a knee injury.
In 2003, the Pats released beloved Safety
Lawyer Milloy a few days before the season started in a strange move that
seemed to relate to money. He jumped directly to the Bills, the Pats’ week 1
opponent, who then beat the Pats on opening day 31-0. The distraction actually
hurt in the short term for game performance. Of course, the Pats then went 17-1
the rest of the season and won the Super Bowl.
So, I have no idea. Anyone who tells you
that the team will wither under the scrutiny and not show up Sunday is
confused. Anyone who tells you it will galvanize the team and result in a
blowout of Seattle is also confused. We don’t know, and it is more likely it
will have little effect on the game. As many have pointed out, despite popular opinion,
momentum does not exist. It is an idea we manufacture to tell our stories and
is retrospective. These players already have emotion and investment in the
game. It is the Super Bowl.
So, let’s actually look at the matchup.
Football Outsiders has this as pretty much a toss-up, which is fairly stunning.
It isn’t that I don’t believe in toss-ups, especially on a neutral field, but
it is fairly rare in the Super Bowl. The game last year as you will remember,
was one in which I predicted a Seahawks
victory by a big score due to the unseen inequities in the matchup. Football
Outsiders saw the edge for the Seahawks and so did I. But this year, FO has
these opponents at a dead heat (weighted DVOA is Pats 39.8%, Seattle 38.8%, insignificant
statistically). Check out this article for the best breakdown I’ve seen so far:
I agree with the advanced stats guys again:
this game is really close. Both teams have shut down, awesome secondaries. Both
teams have underwhelming possession and short to medium route running receivers
that basically make those secondaries loss their normal impact. Simmons said it
in his column that both teams have been built to stop the new age crazy strong
passing attacks. In some ways, it worked because both teams defeated those kinds
of teams to get here. But, they end up staring at mirrors of each other in that
area.
Both teams have underwhelming offensive
lines. However, the Pats barely have a pass rush. Seattle does have a decent
one, but it is inferior to last year’s version, especially in the middle of the
line. The Pats will also use multiple TE sets and 6 OL at times to diffuse that
issue.
The Pats have the biggest mismatch at TE in
the league. While the Seahawks do have only the 18th best defense on
TEs, it is in the top 10 when Chancellor/Thomas/Wagner are all on the field. They
will be on SBS and Seattle is literally the only team I am convinced COULD stop
Gronk completely without sacrificing a major other part of their defense. They
may still fall to that matchup, but they CAN make a good attempt at trying to
negate that advantage.
The Lynch matchup is interesting. The Pats
are the 28th best team at stopping teams in the backfield. They
literally don’t try to do that. However, they are the 7th best at
stopping backs once they cross the line of scrimmage. They basically say, “here,
go ahead and get three yards. We will let you do that as many times as you
want. Eventually you will screw up, fall, hit a blocker, pick the wrong hole.
We will bring 4 guys to tackle you and ensure you will never get a 40 yard TD”.
And that system works for the most part. Even bad games against Ivory and
Forsett this season was them getting small chunks at or under 10 yards, not
more. I think they do the same with Lynch. They won’t miss tackles on him in
the backfield because they will make him get through 3 guys 3 yards into the
play. He probably has a solid game but I don’t think the Pats let him kill
them.
I see three areas that make me feel good
about the Pats overall and it swung my prediction:
1. 6.1% special teams DVOA versus -2.4% for
Seattle. I think a special teams moment is happening somewhere here for the
Pats. Edelman punt return, something.
2. Seattle hasn’t played a truly good and
healthy QB in months. They lost to Romo and Austin Davis (that happened) and
then beat Cam, Carr, Eli, lost to Alex Smith, beat Drew Stanton, Kaep twice, Mark
Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, Cam again, and an injured Aaron Rodgers. We might
be reminded of this lack of true test for Seattle Sunday because the Pats have
Tom Freaking Brady.
3. I always believe in Belichick after two
weeks to prepare. Didn’t help in the last two Super Bowls, but 11-3 in the regular
season after byes and 11-3 for two week layoffs in the playoffs (counting first
round byes and SB prep weeks) is an absurd 22-6 record when this team is given
two weeks rest/prep.
Oh, and I want to factor in that the
Seahawks have three banged up secondary players (Kam tweaked a knee at the end
of Friday’s practice).
I can’t get the picture of Roger Goodell
having to hand the trophy over to Kraft out of my head. That would be too great
to not have happen at this point. So come on Pats, make that moment happen.
Record last week:
Straight Up: 2-0
By Spread: 2-0
Record this year:
Straight Up: 137-75
By Spread: 111-99
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 802-430
By Spread: 649-569
