NFL 2012 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Weekend

I went 1-3 heads up and 3-1 against the spread last week. Read that again, and tell me it doesn’t mean I have a real problem in how I am starting to see things. That doesn’t even make sense. I’ll take it, but still. Jeez.

Only two games this week, and only 3 left in the season. Both should be good though, and nicely feature opposing styles of play. For things looking toward the future, right now the AFC is -2.5 over the NFC in the Superbowl. Just saying. Speculating, you could say. 

NFC Title Game – Falcons +5.5 over Niners, 24-22

-The Niners are probably better. I’ll admit that I’m mostly doing this for the points, because in a hotly contested NFC title game, 5.5 is just too much to ignore. But Atlanta does have quite a few things going for them. SF has to travel East, Atlanta is so good at home, and the Niners do have a QB that has fewer than 10 starts EVER going against a solid vet off his breakthrough playoff win. Matt Ryan is actually in a very similar place to where Peyton was in 2006, when he finally advanced to the Superbowl.

The Seahawks nearly beat the Falcons, and I fully believe Seattle is better than SF (as evidenced by the beatdown served by the ‘Hawks a few weeks ago). So yeah, I’m rolling with Atlanta here. And the biggest reasons why are: A. Justin Smith still isn’t healthy and B. Seattle could cover Roddy and Julio for the most part and still couldn’t win, but SF won’t even come close. Gonzalez is neutralized, but the receivers won’t be and Atlanta (gulp) goes to the Superbowl.

AFC Title Game – Ravens +9.5 over Pats, 27-31

-Calm down, all my NE friends. It is just a cover. These teams play it way too close most times to lay 9.5 with any confidence. The Patriots are by far the healthier team (they are missing Gronk sure, but I think that Ravens missing Webb and having Yanda, Lewis, Suggs, and Ellerbe slowed by injuries are in worse shape). The Pats are at home having played one game versus a non physical foe. The Ravens haven’t had a break, and played two playoffs games to get here including a double OT freezing cold game in Denver then flying to Foxboro. Much respect to the Ravens, and I am giving them a cover here, but I just don’t see Brady losing this game.

It is simple. The Pats beat the Ravens (barely) last year in the playoffs. The Pats are better now (because of Talib, Hightower, Chandler Jones, and Dennard). The Ravens are about the same, I guess, just minus Webb and Ray Rice 2012 seems about 95% of Ray Rice 2011. The Ravens beat NE (barely) 4 months ago but we are a better team now due to experience for the younger players, while the Ravens have been on a downward turn. And remember, Brady, the winningest QB in playoff history, at home, where he is dominant. Yup, close win but Ravens cover. And no one is allowed to say “Bernard Karmell Pollard”.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-80

By Spread: 115-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-277
By Spread: 440-376

NFL 2012 Week 8 Predictions

Top 5

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. Houston  

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

Bottom 5

28. Philadelphia

29. Cleveland

30. Oakland

31. Kansas City  

32. Jacksonville

Falcons +2.5 over Eagles, 30-22

-One team is 6-0. The other is 3-3, trending downward. I don’t understand. I really don’t. 2.5 points. 2.5 point UNDERDOG? Vegas baby, Vegas.

Colts +3.5 over Titans, 21-20

-Continue to like the Colts. Continue to not like the Titans. Just going with that. Luck!

Bears -9 over Panthers, 24-13

-Late game Cam Newton pick six to cover. Forte gashes them. 13 carries, 105 yards, something like that.

-Best Eliminator Pick (wins over the Packers just because you may want to save the Packers).

Packers -15 over Jags, 34-6

-Not a number high enough. Chad. Henne.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 17-16

-This Dolphins team is pretty decent. We will see how good Tannehill is though when Cromartie takes away Hartline. Jets have to come back to the average, they just do. Kerley could actually have a good game regardless. He might be a thing.  

Patriots -7 over Rams, 31-20

-I could be burned by the NFC West versus NE thrice, but I think NE will travel better to England than the Rams and that makes a difference. Gronk is covered by who exactly?

Chargers -2.5 over Browns, 24-20

-Scared of the Chargers. Legit scared. But I think Weedon regresses here and Chargers right the ship. Love the half point love here.

Lions -1 over Seahawks, 17-13

-Lions just really need this win and it is at home. Calvin needs to have a big game though. Part of the reason I am comfortable with this pick is that the Lions defense is underrated right now.

Giants -1.5 over Cowboys, 27-17

-No repeat of the opener, especially with Demarco Murray not being healthy. Giants roll like they should have in the opener. This puts the Cowboys season, essentially on life support, almost completely down. Ignoring the record, this Cowboys team would be done if they lose badly here.

Saints +6.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Still don’t think Denver is good, and that Joe Vitt may have righted the ship for the Saints a little. There is lift here. And the Saints can totally get ahead 24 points, which is normally enough to sink the Broncos (San Diego, I’m looking at you).

Cardinals +6.5 over Niners, 17-21

-Close game so take the points. I think the Cardinals are slightly better than the Seahawks, and that SEA-SF was close. Thus, here we are.  

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-2

By Spread: 4-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 50-34

By Spread: 41-42

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 439-231
By Spread: 361-315

MIKE