NFL 2012 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

And there goes my annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoffs. Some day, maybe.

The Divisional Round is always my favorite. We get to see 8 great, non pretender teams square off almost every year without fail. While the Conference Title Game weekend produces better matchups, there are only two games to watch. This weekend, we still get the full slate of four games. And occasionally in the Divisional round, we get to see some juggernaught tripped up by just a little too much rest and relaxation or even a false sense of security. 

Week 19: Divisional Playoffs

Ravens +10.5 over Broncos, 22-28
-As much as I would love it, I just cannot predict the upset. Too much would have to go right for the Ravens and wrong for the Broncos. If Webb was healthy, that would make a huge difference. But, I do think that the Ravens put up a good fight and are able to keep it close. Ray Rice should be ready to go off after his miscues last week. Maybe the Broncos get rusty/lethargic/lulled into a false sense of security after their 10 game winning streak, but I just don’t think so. Von Miller could have a big day here, and I know Demaryius Thomas does.

Packers +3.5 over Niners, 31-22
-I know, I know, this result flipped the other way in week 1 of the regular season. Guess what? THAT WAS 19 WEEKS/5 MONTHS AGO. These are totally different teams. Randall Cobb has been unleashed, Cedric Benson/Alex Green/Jeff Saturday aren’t involved, and the Packers now know not to force the ball to Finley (well, kinda). The Niners are also a very different team, with a different quarterback, an emerged Michael Crabtree, and a concussed Vernon Davis. However, the biggest difference is the injured Justin Smith. He means so much to that team from a leadership standpoint and a schematic standpoint that his injury by itself makes me flip my prediction for this game. Ironically, the SF-NE game that I attended sold me that A. SF was the best team in the league and B. It immediately dropped from being that because of Justin Smith’s injury. He enables clean tackles for Patrick Willis and Bowman, and more importantly allows Aldon Smith to tee off on the quarterback through holds, stunts, and twists. Finally, Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs versus Colin K? Yeah, sign me up for about a 10 point Pack win.

Seahawks +3 over Falcons, 24-18

-By the way, the Falcons get to 18 by a touchdown, 3 field goals, and 1 safety. It seems right that they would get a safety, since that is all they got last year in the playoffs. I don’t believe in the Falcons in the post season. Not one bit. There is a limited but significant track record at this point saying that they are not an elite level team. The truth is, even if they had gone 3-5 in the playoffs under Matt Ryan so far instead of being winless, I’d still pick Seattle. Their team is just set up so well to win. Atlanta can really only throw the ball at an elite level. And Seattle is perhaps the only team that can take both Roddy and Julio out with their elite corners. Lynch is going to eat that defense up. Seattle wins outright, and while it won’t be Alabama – Notre Dame, I think the ‘Hawks show clear physical dominance over the Falcons.

Pats -9.5 over Texans, 34-17

-I watched that Bengals-Texans game and cheered. Not because the Texans won, no; I wanted the Bengals to win. But I cheered because the Texans won having 7 sustained drives but scored only 1 touchdown and 4 field goals. They do anything similar versus NE, show any of that pathetic level of aggression, and they will lose badly to the Pats in Foxboro. Second, we just saw this game a month ago, same place, same teams. The Pats won easily, and while they had some weird fluke good luck plays, those are counteracted by the fact that they will now get Gronk back. Third, Tom Brady in the playoffs, 16-6 all time. With one more win, he passes Montana for most all time. They aren’t losing this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-77

By Spread: 112-102

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 532-274
By Spread: 437-375