NFL 2014 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Packers +7.5 over Seahawks, 24-30

-If this goes near 6 or 5.5, jump on Seattle. 7.5 points is just disrespectful. I love Aaron Rodgers, best player in football this side of JJ Watt. But Seattle is on another level and wins this game outright. Wilson continues his unreal run and Seattle physically beats the hell out of Green Bay on both sides of the ball.

Pats -7 over Colts, 38-24

-Luck is great, but it isn’t time yet. He has progressed from the WC round to the divisional round to the championship round over the last three years. It stops here, on schedule. The Pats know this formula, and unlike the Broncos can execute it: run it and kill them with TEs in the middle of the field. The RBs for the Pats will get the carries they need (why Denver didn’t give CJ thirty carries I don’t know), and Gronk is healthy while Julius Thomas was not.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 135-75

By Spread: 109-99

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 800-430
By Spread: 647-569

NFL 2014 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Card Round

I am alive to go 11-0 against the spread for the playoffs! It is going to happen one of these years, perhaps it will be this one.

Patriots -7 over Ravens, 31-23

-This could easily be a tight game so the point spread scares me. But the Pats will be fresh and ready to go, hardly ever lose their first playoff game at home, and have a decided edge passing downfield on the Ravens’ abhorrent corner situation. I believe the Pats will keep extra blockers in on most plays to neutralize Dumervil and Suggs and win this game in a solid fashion.

Seahawks -11 over Panthers, 30-9

-The Panthers are having a hard time scoring right now. The Seahawks are not allowing anyone to score right now. Questions?

Packers -5.5 over Cowboys, 27-19

-I’m terrified of Rodgers’ calf, but overall I think the Packers are the much better team. Hopefully he stays upright and takes advantage of an overmatched Cowboys defense, especially in the secondary. I see Cobb and Nelson running wild deep in the Cowboys secondary. This is probably a stay away overall though because of the injury situation.

Colts +7.5 over Broncos, 24-23

-I’m delusional, ignore me. Broncos look broken and odd and the Colts are going to throw it all over the field and…okay, I’m done.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 131-75

By Spread: 107-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 796-430
By Spread: 645-567

NFL 2014 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Round

Panthers -6.5 over Cards, 24-13

-It’s all about Ryan Lindley. Sorry Cards: fix that QB situation and move Fitz somewhere else and this team will be primed for a run at the playoffs again next year. For now, Carolina has been playing well for a month now and it is time to stop ignoring that.

Ravens +3 over Steelers, 21-20

-It is going to be a rainy, messy night in Steel City. Without Bell (most likely), I will take the Ravens to show up in this divisional matchup. The Steelers have been undoubtedly better than Baltimore this year, especially in the last 6 weeks or so. But the weather combined with the injury situations make this a different case.

Colts -3 over Bengals, 30-23

-I will take Andrew Luck over Andy Dalton in playoff games in almost all cases. With the injuries in Cincy right now, this was an easy choice. AJ Green won’t be 100% if he plays, and Jeremy Hill can only do so much. The Colts are going to be an overwhelming force down the field and try to contain the Bengals’ running in a close win.

Lions +7.5 over Cowboys, 23-21

-I honesty have no idea who wins this. It will be close, so I am taking the extra half point. In general you take the better defense when it is close. Combined with such a high line, my decision is made. The Lions can give that Cowboy offensive line some issues unlike many other teams, and I have no idea who covers Tate and Megatron. The Cowboys defense is going to be exposed soon, perhaps it is this week.

Easiest Prediction of the week: The Superbowl Champion isn't playing this weekend, so most of this doesn't matter. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-6

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 128-74

By Spread: 103-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 793-429
By Spread: 641-567

NFL 2014 Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs, 30-17

-Even with Roddy out, this should be an easy win.

Chargers +2.5 over Bills, 27-19

-I neither fully understand nor believe in the Bills so far. I’ll take Rivers over Manuel.

Ravens -1.5 over Browns, 20-17

-Browns have worked really hard so far, but they don’t have enough here. Ravens might be a solid little team. That close loss to the Bengals looks much better in retrospect because the Bengals may be awesome.

Bengals -7 over Titans, 23-14

-Titans’ offense looked like a mess last week. The Bengals might be the best team in the league in the trenches.

Packers +2.5 over Lions, 37-34

-I have a rule. If the Packers are decent, have Aaron Rodgers, and they are getting points, you take it.

Colts -7 over Jags, 27-13

-Luck isn’t going 0-3, and he really isn’t going 0-3 versus the Jags.

Pats -14 over Raiders, 37-20

-Love Derek Carr, but I’m not stupid. This is probably another good game for special teams/defense/intangibles for the Pats. I like this team. It reminds me of the 2003-2004 Pats’ teams, with a well rounded roster.

Saints -10 over Vikings, 40-16

-I’m legitimately excited. Saints are going to EXPLODE.

Texans -2 over Giants, 19-16

-Not a vote of confidence in the Texans. I just dislike the Giants this much.

Eagles -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 30-20

-I like you Kirk, but not this much. The Eagles’ offense is too good.

Cards +3 over 49ers, 20-18

-I mean, maybe? I don’t trust Kaep and continue to love the Cards for some reason.

Fins -4 over Chiefs, 24-17

-Chiefs weren’t that good and are now hurt. Tannehill plays really well here.

Panthers -3 over Steelers, 20-10

-I still don’t believe in the Panthers and won’t even after they stomp all over Pittsburgh.

Seahawks -5 over Broncos, 31-13

-This happened recently, right? It worked out for me then. The Broncos had a decent chance at this….but then the Seahawks lost last week. It is in Seattle, and the Broncos look human so far.

Bears +3.5 over Jets, 20-19

-I am not convinced the Jets should be giving points to anyone right now. Cutler should light them up.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 3-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 14-11

By Spread: 10-15

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 678-366
By Spread: 548-485

NFL 2014 Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions

Lions +3 over Panthers, 23-19

-Derek Anderson was smoke and mirrors, and the Lions are good enough to at least get this close. I still don’t trust the Panthers to be able score at a level to keep up in this one.

Fins -1 over Bills, 21-17

-I wouldn’t put much stock in this one because the energy should be good at home with all their good news. But it is EJ Manuel against my boy Tannehill, and we know how I am picking that.

Jags +5 over Ethnic Slurs, 16-17

-Ugh, what a *fantastic* game to watch. The Jags are feisty and at one point RG3 was averaging 4 yards a pass last week. I’ll give the points a go.

Titans -3.5 over Cowboys, 27-17

-The Cowboys actively do not want to win.

Cards -3 over Giants, 21-14

-The Giants are bad. The Cards are scrappy. And Fitz will have more than 22 yards.

Saints -7 over Browns, 34-13

-Saints aren’t losing two in a row and the Browns used up all their tricks last week. We also know the Steelers aren’t that good now, so the Saints are a strong play.

Pats -3 over the Viks, 27-10

-With no Peterson, this should be a walk.

Falcons +5 over Bengals, 28-31

-With no Geno, I am taking the points in a shootout

Seahawks -6 over Chargers, 31-17

-10 days rest? Same time zone? Yes please.

Raiders +4.5 over Texans, 20-21

-I’ll take my boy Derek Carr at home as a dog versus Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road.

Packers -8 over Jets, 35-9

-This is delicious. Even better than Seahawks/Chargers. No way Packers go 0-2.

Chiefs +13 over Broncos, 24-33

-Wow crazy crazy. That’s a lot of points. I mean, the Broncos are going to win, but….13 points!

Colts -3 over the Eagles, 28-24

-No way Andrew Luck is going 0-2. The Eagles can’t start slow again and expect to win. I think we also see a lot of Ahmad Bradshaw over Trent Richardson, which is good for the offense and team.

I am not touching the Rams/Bucs game because I think both teams are terrible. And Bears/49ers depends if those receivers play or not.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 7-5

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 671-360
By Spread: 545-475

2014 NFL Season Preview

2014 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

AFC East – Patriots

-Boring I know, but this team is loaded, only the Dolphins are really threatening, and the schedule seemingly has broken nicely for the Pats. 12-13 wins easy, and the top seed in the AFC.

AFC North – Bengals

-Dominant lines, explosive playmakers, and troublesome issues for each of the division mates.

AFC South – Colts

-Luck. Locker. Fitzpatrick. Bortles. Let’s move along.

AFC West – Broncos

-Boring like the Pats, but makes the most sense. 11 wins easy. The West will better than people think so.

Wild Cards: Dolphins and Chargers

-Tannehill takes a step forward, and the Chargers remain offensively efficient while improving the pass defense.

AFC Championship – Patriots over Colts

NFC East – Eagles

-The Eagles are the most complete team. The Giants have little talent, the Ethnic Slurs have a bad defense, and the Cowboys are the Cowboys and destined to be 8-8.

NFC North – Packers

-This is a loaded division; the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers. They dominate the divisional matchups and maximize their most balanced offense in years.

NFC South – Saints

-I love this Saints team. They have a much better defense than they have had in past years, and Cooks evens out the offense. They get 13 wins and the top overall seed.

NFC West – Seahawks

-Tough break for the 49ers again, but Seattle gets

Wild Cards: Lions and Bears

-Both good teams, both would win just about any other division but are stuck with the Packers.

NFC Championship – Saints over Packers

-Quite a shootout, but the Saints have more balance and home field matters here.

Superbowl: Saints over Patriots

-I want to pick the Pats because of their improvements on defense, but the Saints have the look to me.

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-He is the best player, and will have the best statistical season efficiency wise. Manning will regress, and Brees/Brady have their most talented defenses in years so won’t press as much.

OPY: Drew Brees

-6000 yards and 60 Touchdowns is in play. You heard me.

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-He is a machine.

ORY: Brandin Cook

-He is going to have a crazy weird statline. I think 60 catches for 1150 yards and 10 TDs is in play.

DRY: Jadeveon Clowney

-What a monster. And he is getting single teamed because of Watt!

COY: Sean Payton

-General Saints dominance.

NFL 2013 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Saints +8 over Seahawks, 20-24

-Too many points, but a probable Seahawks victory. They did this dance last month, and this isn’t one of those games where the Saints learn from the first and do it differently. They just got dominated. And probably will be again, but have a slightly closer result. The rain keeps the scoring down a bit.

Colts +7.5 over Patriots, 24-31

-This is just way too many points. Trying to overcome my regional bias, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts win this game. But definitely, I am taking the 7.5. The Pats’ argument is constructed of the fact that they are 6-1 coming off the bye at home, and the only loss was to that wonky 2009 Jets team. The Colts will not be playing that style, and Belichick can scheme around even the Colts’ explosiveness. Though, Adam Vin is involved and that makes me really nervous.

49ers pk over Panthers, 16-13

-The 49ers were the original. The Panthers are a new fangled remix. Sometimes that’s good. But this is more of a Jordan-Kobe relationship. And while Kobe’s good, he ain’t Jordan. Kobe could get him sometimes in 1:1, but I think the Niners still get this one.

Chargers +10 over Broncos, 24-23

-I just…I don’t know…I want it to be…the time of possession stat….wind…Manning is under .500 in the playoffs….someone is getting upset this weekend….I don’t even know anymore.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 1-3

Record this year:
Straight Up: 120-70
By Spread: 97-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 659-353
By Spread: 534-468

NFL 2013 Week 14 Predictions

Bills +3 over Bucs, 19-17

-Two bad teams with potential, so a FG seems right. That’s one road FG underdog I am taking this week….

Pats -11 over Browns, 30-16

-Who’s playing QB for the Browns? And at home too?

Lions +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I truly believe the Lions are better. And odds are sooner or later Foles throws that first pick (that isn’t called back on a stupid penalty). This is the second time I am taking a FG underdog on the road.

Colts +6.5 over Bengals, 20-22

-Just too many points for an Andrew Luck team.

Chiefs -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-17

-As Bill Simmons pointed out in his Cousin Sal podcast, the Chiefs’ winning this week means that they clinch the 5 seed and can rest the remaining part of the regular season. Weird.

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Third time here I am taking the FG over a home team, but in close games what choice do I have?

Ravens -7 over Vikings, 20-12

-Vikings should be ashamed of themselves, going 1-0-1 the last few weeks. They will start to lose soon, as they should.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders +3 over Jets, 17-3

-Make that four times….

Broncos -11.5 over Titans, 31-14

-Don’t like it, but I am taking the layup.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Giants +3 over Chargers, 27-26

-Make that five times….

Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 16-13

-Make that six times…..Seattle is just better

Rams +6 over Cards, 13-17

-Reports of Palmer possibly not playing are making me nervous.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 89-51
By Spread: 75-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 628-334
By Spread: 512-439

NFL 2013 Week 9 Predictions

Bengals -3 over Dolphins, 27-20

-I like the Fins, but this probably ends the competitive portion of their season. Mike Wallace would normally take advantage the Bengals being without Leon Hall, but that would require Mike Wallace to be conscious and try.

Falcons +7.5 over Panthers, 26-27

-Panthers win, but 7.5 is about a half point too much.

Cowboys -9.5 over Vikings, 31-13

-I am comfortable with laying almost 10 points with Tony Romo, I am comfortable with laying almost 10 points with Tony Romo…..

Saints -4.5 over Jets, 30-10

-A line I don’t understand, but will embrace.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Titans -3.5 over Rams, 24-16

-Titans are a tough little team, and the Rams aren’t nearly as good as they almost looked Monday night.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Chiefs -3.5 over Bills, 17-10

-After 6 straight covers, the Chiefs have dropped 2 in a row. That is breaking now, and the Chiefs get a half dozen sacks.

Chargers +1 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-23

-Yes please. How are the Slurs favored here?

Raiders over Eagles, 26-11

-Man it makes me pained to choose Pryor for anything but a tattoo artist recommendation, but I’m doing it here. Yes I predicted 11 points.

Seahawks -15 over Bucs, 38-16

-Schiano fired, no question. I like Glennon, but this might be embarrassing.

Ravens -3 over Browns, 23-17

-A “we need this” team versus a “it would be nice” team.

Patriots -7 over Steelers, 26-13

-Pats are winning winnable games, the Steelers are losing winnable games. Pretty clear to me.

Colts -2 over Texans, 24-13

-2? 2?! 2! Take it! Run!

Packers -7.5 over Bears, 31-20

-Too many injuries to overcome, and Rodgers is in 2006 Brady mode (And Nelson/Boykins is still better than Caldwell/Doug Gabriel).

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-0
By Spread: 5-3

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 57-30
By Spread: 47-40

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 591-309
By Spread: 490-416

NFL 2013 Week 8 Predictions

Saints -10.5 over Bills, 37-13

-Thad Lewis, no way. They are going to face a real team now, rested off a bye. Saints rout this.

Lions -2.5 over Cowboys, 31-26

-Megatron is transformed again. Cowboys are really dinged up, and this is coming back to the mean soon.

Pats -6.5 over Fins, 27-20

-I’m pretty sure with Tannehill dinged up and Gronk on a better page with Brady this will even out. Plus, you know, the Pats don’t lose two in a row.

Jags +17.5 over 49ers, 17-30

-Just too many points. 49ers should win easily. 

Raiders +3.5 over Steelers, 20-19
-This just feels like a game they give away. Also, the Raiders are 12th on defense. That's right, 12th.

Bengals -6.5 over Jets, 19-10

-Jets aren’t good. I really think the Bengals prove it here, even if it is a slug fest.

Ethnic Slurs +14 over Broncos, 24-34

-Just the points, unlikely they win with that swish cheese defense in the nation’s capital. RG3 probably has a big fantasy day.

Packers -9.5 over Vikings, 30-10

-Not enough points on this earth could take me to take THAT dysfunction right now.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Seahawks over Rams, 31-6

-Well, we will have most of our Monday night free to stand in line for Assassin’s Creed IV!

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-5
By Spread: 4-6

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 49-30
By Spread: 42-37

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 583-309
By Spread: 485-413

NFL 2013 Week 7 Predictions

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs, 20-12

-It’s not about Julio and Roddy. It’s about Glennon and Schiano.

Bengals +3.5 over Lions, 24-23

-Just a matchup thing. The Bengals do great against pass offenses.

Fins -7.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Tighter if it is Thad Lewis. A romp if it is Matt Flynn.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -4 over Jets, 38-13

-I feel it coming. It is almost there!

Jags +7.5 over Chargers, 20-19

-Who is feeling a standard Norv Turner letdown? Wait, he got fired? That’s embarrassing. Um, who is feeling a feisty Jags team that is firing the ball downfield each play and is playing a West Coast team going East on a short week?!

Bears -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-17

-I’m literally unable to hold in my excitement about Brandon Marshall’s fantasy day. I am sitting here quivering and whooped aloud twice while typing this.

Packers -9.5 over Browns, 24-13

-Look up what happened last year when the Packers were without their two best WRs…yeah, Rodgers did just fine. He’s, as Nate Ravitz this week on the Fantasy Focus Football called him, Aaron Flippin’ Rodgers. Against Brandon Weeden. And THERE'S Norv Turner. He was hiding on me for a minute. 

Chiefs -6.5 over Texans, 20-6

-Case Keenum anyone?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Colts +7.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-I just…I don’t….leave me alone. I love Andrew Luck. Jim Irsay tackles Manning on the field. Reggie Wayne catches 17 balls. Unicorns.

Vikings +3.5 over Giant¸23-14

-JASSSSSHHHHH FREEMANNNNN everyone!

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-2
By Spread: 5-5

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 44-25
By Spread: 38-31

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 578-304
By Spread: 481-407

NFL 2013 Week 6 Predictions

Lions -2.5 over Browns, 27-23
-The Lions, assuming Calvin plays, are a much better team than Cleveland. The Browns have a legit defense, but can't score with Detroit. 

Staying away from bad-bad matchups in NYJ-PIT and PHI-TB, and the uncertainty over Peterson's status for CAR-MIN makes me want to be away from that either. 

Bengals -7.5 over Bills, 30-6
-Thad Lewis? Should be a romp, even with Byrd's return to Buffalo's secondary. 
-Best Eliminator Pick

Raiders +10 over Chiefs, 17-26
-Should be an easy win, but the Chiefs probably shouldn't be laying this many points against anyone. If they cover, it will be because of defensive or special team TDs. 

Rams +7.5 over Texans, 23-24
-Way too many points. A pure upset wouldn't surprise me here. 

Packers -3.5 over Ravens, 31-22
-The Ravens continue to have injuries mount, and I don't think they can score with Green Bay anyways. 

Jags +27.5 over Broncos, 17-30
-A win, just not a romp. Justin Blackmon has a big game. Some guy named Manning does too, but I don't think anyone owns him in fantasy though. 

Seahawks -13.5 over Titans, 27-12
-No Locker, the Fitzpatrick rule is in effect. Seattle's DEF/ST is a great play. 

Pats -2.5 over Saints, 34-30
-Saints aren't the same on the road in colder weather, and the Pats don't lose two in a row. That simple. If the Pats lose, I fully anoint the Saints as my favorite in the NFC and probably overall and finally readjust my thinking of the Pats as an elite team. I admit I am borderline on that topic already. 

Cowboys -5.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-13
-Is there a reason this is in the Vegas zone and not a full 7-9 point line? Just RGIII respect? Oh well, take it and run. The Washington defense is horrible and the Cowboys are a competent football team with an explosive offense. 
-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Colts -1.5 over Chargers, 30-24
-Probably a good game, but the start of Andrew Luck dominating in prime time games. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-4
By Spread: 5-4
Record this year: 
Straight Up: 36-23
By Spread: 33-26

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 570-302
By Spread: 476-402