NFL 2014 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Card Round

I am alive to go 11-0 against the spread for the playoffs! It is going to happen one of these years, perhaps it will be this one.

Patriots -7 over Ravens, 31-23

-This could easily be a tight game so the point spread scares me. But the Pats will be fresh and ready to go, hardly ever lose their first playoff game at home, and have a decided edge passing downfield on the Ravens’ abhorrent corner situation. I believe the Pats will keep extra blockers in on most plays to neutralize Dumervil and Suggs and win this game in a solid fashion.

Seahawks -11 over Panthers, 30-9

-The Panthers are having a hard time scoring right now. The Seahawks are not allowing anyone to score right now. Questions?

Packers -5.5 over Cowboys, 27-19

-I’m terrified of Rodgers’ calf, but overall I think the Packers are the much better team. Hopefully he stays upright and takes advantage of an overmatched Cowboys defense, especially in the secondary. I see Cobb and Nelson running wild deep in the Cowboys secondary. This is probably a stay away overall though because of the injury situation.

Colts +7.5 over Broncos, 24-23

-I’m delusional, ignore me. Broncos look broken and odd and the Colts are going to throw it all over the field and…okay, I’m done.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 131-75

By Spread: 107-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 796-430
By Spread: 645-567

NFL 2014 Week 17 Predictions

Week 17 Predictions

Ravens -9.5 over Browns, 20-10

-Browns are falling apart and the Ravens need this.

Jags +9.5 over Texans, 10-19

-Texans are still alive so they pull this through. But that is too many points to give.

Chargers +2.5 over Chiefs, 24-13

-The Chiefs having this whole “WRs not scoring TDs” thing is going to bite them.

Fins -5.5 over Jets, 20-10

-Bye Rex.

Bears +6.5 over Vikings, 20-23

-I mean, it’d be exciting to get Matt Forte 100 catches?

Pats -5 over Bills, 28-17

-Even with some starters not playing and without much to play for, Pats still win this one to stay sharp with a two week layoff upcoming.

Saints -4 over Bucs, 27-16

-Who knows anymore with the Saints? Well, we know the Bucs want that first pick. #MarcusMariota

Colts -7 over Titans, 30-10

-Titans are in “just lose baby” mode. Colts need to get it right before the post season, and they do so here.

Cowboys -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-13

-In past years, the Cowboys lose this game. But this year, they seem to have the formula down.

Falcons -4 over Panthers, 24-19

-Panthers just don’t have enough on offense in this winner take all game. The Falcons biggest weakness in pass defense is something the Panthers will struggle to take advantage of.

Packers -7.5 over Lions, 34-20

-No Raiola, and Detroit’s offense isn’t exactly humming right now. You have to assume the Packers will claim this division.

Raiders +14.5 over Broncos, 20-24

-Just a feeling a cover may be in order. The Raiders are showing they will be a competent team next year. Sparano deserves legit consideration

Cards +6 over 49ers, 21-20

-Too many points when one team needs it and the other is done. Jim may be gone by Monday.

Seahawks -12.5 over Rams, 27-10

-Seahawks will cream them and claim the overall seed. NFC playoffs go through Seattle.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Too many points in such an important game. The Bengals can still get a first round bye if something crazy happens with the Broncos.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-7

By Spread:  6-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 119-68

By Spread: 94-91

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 786-423
By Spread: 632-561

NFL 2012 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

And there goes my annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoffs. Some day, maybe.

The Divisional Round is always my favorite. We get to see 8 great, non pretender teams square off almost every year without fail. While the Conference Title Game weekend produces better matchups, there are only two games to watch. This weekend, we still get the full slate of four games. And occasionally in the Divisional round, we get to see some juggernaught tripped up by just a little too much rest and relaxation or even a false sense of security. 

Week 19: Divisional Playoffs

Ravens +10.5 over Broncos, 22-28
-As much as I would love it, I just cannot predict the upset. Too much would have to go right for the Ravens and wrong for the Broncos. If Webb was healthy, that would make a huge difference. But, I do think that the Ravens put up a good fight and are able to keep it close. Ray Rice should be ready to go off after his miscues last week. Maybe the Broncos get rusty/lethargic/lulled into a false sense of security after their 10 game winning streak, but I just don’t think so. Von Miller could have a big day here, and I know Demaryius Thomas does.

Packers +3.5 over Niners, 31-22
-I know, I know, this result flipped the other way in week 1 of the regular season. Guess what? THAT WAS 19 WEEKS/5 MONTHS AGO. These are totally different teams. Randall Cobb has been unleashed, Cedric Benson/Alex Green/Jeff Saturday aren’t involved, and the Packers now know not to force the ball to Finley (well, kinda). The Niners are also a very different team, with a different quarterback, an emerged Michael Crabtree, and a concussed Vernon Davis. However, the biggest difference is the injured Justin Smith. He means so much to that team from a leadership standpoint and a schematic standpoint that his injury by itself makes me flip my prediction for this game. Ironically, the SF-NE game that I attended sold me that A. SF was the best team in the league and B. It immediately dropped from being that because of Justin Smith’s injury. He enables clean tackles for Patrick Willis and Bowman, and more importantly allows Aldon Smith to tee off on the quarterback through holds, stunts, and twists. Finally, Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs versus Colin K? Yeah, sign me up for about a 10 point Pack win.

Seahawks +3 over Falcons, 24-18

-By the way, the Falcons get to 18 by a touchdown, 3 field goals, and 1 safety. It seems right that they would get a safety, since that is all they got last year in the playoffs. I don’t believe in the Falcons in the post season. Not one bit. There is a limited but significant track record at this point saying that they are not an elite level team. The truth is, even if they had gone 3-5 in the playoffs under Matt Ryan so far instead of being winless, I’d still pick Seattle. Their team is just set up so well to win. Atlanta can really only throw the ball at an elite level. And Seattle is perhaps the only team that can take both Roddy and Julio out with their elite corners. Lynch is going to eat that defense up. Seattle wins outright, and while it won’t be Alabama – Notre Dame, I think the ‘Hawks show clear physical dominance over the Falcons.

Pats -9.5 over Texans, 34-17

-I watched that Bengals-Texans game and cheered. Not because the Texans won, no; I wanted the Bengals to win. But I cheered because the Texans won having 7 sustained drives but scored only 1 touchdown and 4 field goals. They do anything similar versus NE, show any of that pathetic level of aggression, and they will lose badly to the Pats in Foxboro. Second, we just saw this game a month ago, same place, same teams. The Pats won easily, and while they had some weird fluke good luck plays, those are counteracted by the fact that they will now get Gronk back. Third, Tom Brady in the playoffs, 16-6 all time. With one more win, he passes Montana for most all time. They aren’t losing this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-77

By Spread: 112-102

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 532-274
By Spread: 437-375

NFL 2012 Week 17 Predictions

Happy Holidays everyone, and congrats to those who now have fantasy titles, welcome to the club. And for those who finished in second or third (I have 1 and 3 of those finishes myself this year), congrats as well on strong seasons. Last regular season predictions, enjoy. 

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing Changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Wild Card:  Houston, despite what has happened to them lately. And the Giants. Just in case. Even if they are eliminated, I will probably list them here. Just to be safe. I don’t have residual issues at all.

The picks are going to be fast and quick, as many of these games don’t matter and will be hard to predict.

Week 17

-Bengals over Ravens is meaningless. I am going to guess a Baltimore win, as they kind of want the 3 seed.

Saints -5 over Panthers, 34-27

-Should be a high score here, but the Saints are hot enough to end the season with a win and return to equilibrium at .500.

Bears -3 over Lions, 27-19

-Simply a case of one team needing it and the other wanting a record. Stafford throws, oh, 48 times easily? By the way, Calvin isn’t actually getting a lot of garbage time yards, so I don’t know why people are fixating on that. What is more interesting is his propensity for getting tackled at the one yard line.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 23-6

-This pick has everything to do with how horrendous Cleveland is going to perform on offense. Thad Lewis? Ugh.

Packers -3.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-Peterson has a HUGE day but the Packers want that one seed.

Texans -3 over Colts, 19-10

-Colts are going to be the 5, and very well could see the Texans in two weeks AGAIN (I have a standing prediction with a friend that the Colts go into Baltimore and kill the Ravens if it schedules out that way). So the Texans kind of try to just technically seal up the situation and the Colts play really vanilla to not let anything get out about game plans.

TEN-JAX is also meaningless, and just should be an agreed-upon tie so that the game doesn’t have to take place. Wait, I have Justin Blackmon as a key player this week in a title game. PLAY ON!

Dolphins +10.5 over Pats, 23-24

-Something is telling me the Pats are going to punt this game to avoid Denver in the next round by purposely falling to the 4 seed. And in general, I just don’t trust teams like the Pats in the final game in situations like this. Bill will do whatever he thinks best. I’m just not going to bet on what that will be. If they try even a little they win this, but 10.5? No way.

Bills -4.5 over Jets, 21-12

-Bet on the team without a center, or the team without skill? I guess I’ll go with Buffalo. At least they are at home and have Spiller. Wait, Sanchez is playing? Okay, I’m definitively in.

Giants -7 over Eagles, 26-15

-One more chance for Vick to turn it over 4 times. Or, you know, catch fire and convince a team to make him their starter next year. (Please come to the Jets Vick. Please! I’m literally salivating).

ATL-TB is meaningless, no idea how long ATL starters play.

Cards +16.5 over 49ers, 13-26

-Always take over a two touchdown spread when a team A. Starts throwing to its best guy again and B. the opponent just got butt whooped. That duo of situations has gotta find a place in my manifesto somewhere…

Chiefs +16.5 over Broncos, 13-24

-Broncos probably win this easy, but then they start looking ahead and resting guys. NE will probably somehow be down 23-0 at this point while Brady is having a Mountain Dew on the sidelines as Ryan Mallett does his best Drew Bledsoe out there and Denver will get the hint. Plus, Jamaal Charles IS really good.

SD-OAK: I predict because neither team will be able to field a complete unit, they agree to take knees from halftime onward. And while watching from the sidelines, Ryan Mathews breaks another clavicle.

Rams +10.5 over Seahawks, 17-27

-Rams play the Hawks close, are better than most think, and this is another game where we have no idea what will matter at this point in time. If the Niners are up 24-0 on the Cards at half, Seattle may look to build the trade value of Matt Flynn.

Cowboys +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 29-27

-I’m taking the 3.5 because that is just too big a number in such a close contest, but I am taking Dallas for the win because the Cowboys have reverse suckered us in. they lost the game they really needed last week. Now, in Washington, against the wonderrook, we are all expecting them to choke. That is why I predict they will win.

This game, ladies and gentleman, is the holiday playoff gift to us all. Especially if it is Dallas who wins. Whoever they host, Chicago or Seattle most likely, just take in the Wild Card round, ignoring the line, and celebrate your victory as Romo or RGIII look so overwhelmed. I’m already excited.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 13-2

By Spread: 11-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 133-71

By Spread: 109-94

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 522-268
By Spread: 429-367

NFL 2012 Week 9 Predictions

Top 5

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. Houston  

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

Bottom 5

28. Philadelphia

29. Cleveland

30. Oakland

31. Kansas City  

32. Jacksonville

Packers -9.5 over Cards, 31-17

-Packers will just score too much. Man Cardinals, get a quarterback.

Ravens -3.5 over Browns, 20-13

-Ravens, despite injuries, are still just much better. Browns will play them tough though.

Texans -9.5 over Bills, 35-13

-Bills either win or lose big each week. So the probable result here is a Texans blowout, considering the disparity in talent levels between these two teams.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -3.5 over Titans, 34-10

-Hey, there is my “going to be a close game until one team throws a pair of pick sixes” game! I was waiting to see where it would show up.

-2^nd best eliminator game.

Bengals +4.5 over Broncos, 27-28

-Broncos win a late one, but 4.5 feels like a little too much. Dalton does just fine in this matchup of quarterbacks on totally different ends of the age spectrum.

Lions -4.5 over Jags, 27-16

-Lions are going to try something crazy and get a lead in this one and try to keep it. Gonna be a thing. Don’t always have to come from behind Lions, you know that right?

Colts +1.5 over Dolphins, 24-16

-Continue to love teams with quarterbacks versus teams without one. Luck to Wayne is big in this one as the Dolphins are good against the run and decidedly not against the pass. If Tannehill plays, it is more like a 3 point game.

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks, 19-21

-Too many field goals + Seahawks home advantage leads to a Seattle win. But for a defensive game with the two most dynamic offensive players being on the Vikings, you can’t lay 4.5.

Giants -3.5 over Steelers, 27-10

-Nothing against the Steelers, simply a pick for the spirit of NY. The whole “flying in a few hours before the game from Pittsburgh” thing isn’t really good either. Eli has a big day.

Falcons -3.5 over Cowboys, 31-24

-It isn’t that the Cowboys cannot score enough points to hang with the Falcons. They totally can. It just seems like most of the time the Cowboys would get to 30+ points it would require a volume that presents the opportunity for Romo to throw 7 picks. I’ll take the nice, safe, consistent Falcons. A loss here essentially ends the Cowboys being a serious playoff team, as I said last week would happen. Sorry Dallas.

Saints -3 over Eagles, 31-25

-The Sproles injury troubles me, but I really think the Eagles are balancing on the edge of disaster. Vick could light this up. However, he has equal chance of being horrible right off the bat and then this could be over. You’ve been warned, either go with the Saints or just stay away. The over, on the other hand, is a nice time right now.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-3

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 58-37

By Spread: 47-47

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 447-234
By Spread: 367-320

MIKE