2013-2014 NBA Season Predictions

I am really excited for the NBA season.

Don’t get me wrong, I am pretty much always into basketball. I love fantasy hoops: I consider it the best fantasy sport because it is longer than football, but retains the stat focus of baseball without being so insufferably long. Basketball itself is the most personal of sports, easily accessible to the common folk, affordable to go to in person, and decently good with advanced stats. So I love it very much.

But what is surprising is that I am even thinking about it on October 25th. Normally even though I love basketball, pro football is keeping me occupied. Even though I am not the biggest fan of college football, I probably have watched more of that in November the last few years than hoops. I don’t get into hoops fully until the turn of the new year (those Christmas games are my turnover point).But for this season I am locked in already, and cannot wait until tip off. I have drafts on Monday and am pumped. So, let’s do some predictions!

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 8. Wolves          

2. Thunder over 7. Mavs         

6. Grizz over 3. Clippers         

4. Dubs over 5. Rockets         

1. Spurs over 4. Dubs             

2. Thunder over 6. Grizz         

1. Spurs over 2. Thunder, -Leonard makes the LEAP and shuts down Durant. 

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:  

1. Bulls over 8. Pistons           

2. HEAT over 7. Wizards       

3. Pacers over 6. Cavs             

4. Nets over 5. Knicks                        

1. Bulls over 4. Nets               

3. Pacers over 2. HEAT          

3. Pacers over 1. Bulls, -If Thibs manages his minutes, he can win this. So the Pacers win. 

NBA Finals: Spurs over Pacers in 5

-Leonard dominates, limiting Paul George. Parker will be awesome as well, Duncan only has to play Hibbert to a stalemate. The Spurs benefit from the new Finals format (Finally a 2-2-1-1-1). Duncan and probably Pop walk off into the sunset. Ginobili limps off. Pacers are disappointed, but will be viable for the next half decade as it is clear Paul George is a dominant player. 

All NBA Teams:

1. CP3, Harden, Lebron, Durant, Dwight

2. Parker, Rose, Paul George, Love, Marc Gasol

3. Rubio, Curry, Melo, Blake, Dirk

D. Avery Bradley, Tony Allen, Paul George, Lebron, Ibaka

R. Oladipo, McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Zeller, Olynyk

20 Proclamations and Predictions:

1. Bulls will lead the league in wins, just slightly over the Spurs. And everyone will marvel at the two of them doing so. The HEAT are declining, and the Thunder won’t be at full strength for a while, so this was actually easy. The Bulls continue to grind out wins, costing them health in the playoffs.

2. The Pacers’ bench makes the difference in the Eastern Finals, as the big difference from what happened last year. The math on the previous round versus the HEAT was pretty easily actually: Wade/Allen are declining, and Shane Battier probably goes off a cliff. Paul George got better, and they get contributions from Granger and Luis Scola when they didn’t before. So, go Pacers, go!

3. Pau Gasol has a really efficient and productive year, finally in an offensive system with him at center than features his ability to pass, be creative near the rim, and hit longer jumpers. Just no 3s Pau, please.  

4. Kevin Love leads the league in boards, and has over 4 offensive rebounds a game. Rubio leads it in assists, as a combination of minutes/opportunities/game flow. Heck, he’ll lead it in steals as well (that’s not as out there, look at the numbers).

5. Wade finally regresses to a point where we cannot ignore it and Bosh is CLEARLY their second best player, without argument. 

6. Victor Oladipo or Kelly Olynyk wins the Rookie of the Year. Probably VO, but Olynyk could have one weird statline. 

7. The Lakers hit a ton of threes. Not only do they now have time with D’Antoni and Nash to run this thing, but ANYONE shooting over Metta is better, so Nick Young and Xavier Henry fill it up, even if it isn’t crazy efficient. Oh, but the Lakers divebomb and win 30 games because their defensive finishes dead last. You heard me. Nash/Kobe on one leg/Nick Young/person X at PF/old Pau. Holy crap are people going to score on them.

8. The Nets look good but not elite all year, and never really turn it on in the playoffs. However, it is injuries not to “injury prone” Brook Lopez or “old” Pierce and Garnett that do them in, but Deron Williams.

9. Dirk has a career capping season, dropping something like 23.5 PPG, 8 RPG on a 50-40-90 shooting season and the Mavs are a really efficient offensive team behind Jose Calderon.

10. Durant wins the MVP due to voter fatigue, a slightly better record than the HEAT, and his “stepping up when Westbrook was gone”. Lebron deserves it by all stats, but Durant will get it.

11. Serge Ibaka wins Defensive Player of the Year, not just for the blocks, but some increased positional defense and time at center.

12. Rick Adelman wins Coach of the Year, even though we already knew he was great.

13. The Wizards are good, watchable, and give someone a scare in the first round.

14. The Cavs look good on paper, but overall crash due to injuries and ill fits. This team looks drastically different 12 months from now.

15. None of us will know what to do with Andre Drummond. He is a combination of young Shaq/Andries Biedrins/Javale McGee/Andre Blatche/DeMarcus Cousins. For those wondering if that is a compliment or insult….yes.

16. Sixth Man of the Year is a somewhat underwhelming race, but Reggie Jackson gets it because he gets a lot of counting stats while Westbrook is gone.

17. There will be multiple trades in the middle of the season, much more exciting than last year. These will heavily include the Blazers and Hawk among others, because the pieces for both those teams are just so tradable.

18. The Knicks kind of fall apart, and Melo definitively leaves. Next year they win 20 games behind a core of Felton/Iman/JR Smith/Bargnani/Tyson as four of those guys are really declining by then.

19. Asik is traded to the Pelicans as their season crashes due to problems at the swing and defense by Ryan Anderson. Anderson going to Houston makes the Rockets fun to watch and makes Harden excel. Asik lets Anthony Davis dominate at the 4.

20. Harden finishes out of the top 5 in real life MVP votes, but is the number 1 fantasy player with one of the more balanced efficiency/usage combinations in recent history. I am thinking a 24.5/5.5/8/45-40-88 with 2 steals, lower TOs, and a ton of FT makes at a scarce position.

Happy NBA Season everyone!

2013 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

So here we are, Spurs versus the HEAT. For the third year in a row I am faced with trying to build a case against Lebron winning a ring (yes, I am aware of the suggestion bias in that previous sentence).  In my Mavericks pick two years ago I was dead on: the HEAT hadn’t found themselves yet, the Mavs were on a special roll, there was history from ‘06, and Lebron was still shrinking in big games at that point. So I got the prediction right, and felt pretty good about myself.

Last year I picked the Thunder in an equally logical and emotional pick. I loved Durant but especially the Westbrook matchup on Chalmers and Cole. I underrated the newness of the Thunder to the limelight, Lebron’s true ascension to clutch status (which I should have seen coming from the Boston debacle in game six of the previous series), and the lingering effects of Ron Artest’s elbow on James Harden’s head (I couldn’t bring myself to write the pun that would be “Peace’s elbow to Harden’s head”). I don’t hate that Thunder pick in retrospect, but clearly the HEAT should have been the favorites in my mind.

So I come to Spurs-HEAT. In the course of reading some articles for work this week, I came across an interesting comparison with this coming series. “Learning and Organizational Effectiveness” by Nicholas Andreadis posited two definitions for effectiveness. The first was basically “the accomplishment of missions or achievement of objectives”. The second, perhaps not meant to be opposing to the first, is “acquiring of competencies, development, and self knowledge”. This second principle is based around the concept that true success isn’t measured by accomplishing a result but having the expectation that success is predictable. Because the system is so competent, achievement is the most logical result and even expected.

I immediately associated the HEAT with the first theory. They won a title, and made three straight Finals appearances. They are 10-1 in playoff series under Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Those results are indisputably impressive no matter the other circumstances, and deserve praise and mention in the history books. But that’s the extent of what I see. They achieved results, but the team isn’t its most effective. It has gone stretches without an identity, lucked into its now signature offense because Bosh got hurt last year and they improvised on the fly while in the playoffs, and had challenges from teams (Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Boston) that it really shouldn’t have been challenged by. They have the talent, and the results, but what I think most of us are disappointed by is the lack of efficiency during that time in between.

The Spurs on the other hand have that organizational efficiency delineated in the second definition. The way the system is set up “creates predictable results, if not expected”. About three guys on the team can dunk, their three best players are 101 years old combined, multiple team members are without ACLs, and they are not exciting to the casual fan. But Pop is the best at making adjustments, the culture of the club is outstanding, and the system is well oiled, fine tuned, and adjustable. Their system works so well it is a surprise when they don’t success, like last year to the Thunder. Someone has to beat them, they don’t lose to others.

Oh, and I also wrote this ridiculous 2450 word piece on the Spurs' success only 3 months ago. It now seems pretty brilliant if I am being honest.

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

Lebron’s first Finals appearance, seemingly lost to time, was the embarrassment against the Spurs six years ago. I feel like that Finals will be forgotten either way this one goes. If Lebron wins 5 titles, people won’t care about that isolated incident. If he loses in the Finals from here out, that one series won’t be harped on as much as the Mavs series or whatever happens this year. We don’t talk about Kobe losing the ’04 Finals to the Pistons for example, just as we don't talk about any individual Super Bowl loss by the Buffalo Bills. 

However, that Finals, suspiciously underpublicized and buried by the NBA, is now very relevant. At that point at least, Pop had Lebron’s number. Sure, the Cavs at that time were really limited….but news flash, so are the HEAT now. Wade and Bosh aren’t exactly dominating and are probably overpaid, slightly over the hill minor stars now rather than superstars. Lebron’s brilliance puts them here, though he is undeniably more developed than he was six years ago. Of course, so are Parker and Pop.

When I started codify my thoughts on this series, I withdrew from the individual matchup and gazed back at the last two years. As I did so, I realized the case for the Spurs was made for me. The ’13 Spurs recall the ‘11 Mavs much more than they resemble the ’12 Thunder. In both the ‘11 and ‘12 Finals the more experienced and desperate team won. Miami just happened to flip roles between the two years. I wouldn’t necessarily describe the Spurs as more desperate, but they are definitively older and more mature of a group with a shorter window of titles.

Both those Mavs and these Spurs share a decades-long dominance by a star big man, and two guards hungry for a title. I would describe Kidd and Terry of two years ago as having the qualities of “older guard wanting a title”, “fiery off the bench scorer”, “pick and roll monsters”, and “mental leader of an efficient midrange onslaught”. Parker and Ginobili match those qualities, mixed a little bit between the two but similar to Kidd and Terry in total. Leonard and Chandler don’t fit the comparison, but overall the fit is there for these teams.

For this series, the Spurs have the advantage down low. They have a strong coaching advantage. I hold both Lionel Hollins and Spo in similar esteem. Top 10 coaches, but not in Pop’s league. Even if the HEAT start the Finals strong, I believe in the Spurs ability to adjust and get back in it. Again, similar to how Carlisle outcoached Spo in the ’11 Finals.

The matchups are very even. Parker and Duncan should kill Chalmers and Bosh respectively. Wade should outclass Danny Green. I think Miami forces Splitter off the court with smaller packages, and wins that matchup. And I love Kawhi Leonard, but he can’t contain Lebron. He and Paul George might be the best defenders against Lebron, but LBJ is going to get going and be insanely productive again. If the Spurs win this series, it won’t be because Lebron shrinks this time. It will be for other reasons, such as support…similar to CLE-SAS in ’07.

The Spurs have the skills and personal to rotate people with all those shooters and bench guys. Ginobili should equalize Wade at this point when he comes off the bench. And while I am not sure the HEAT will be tired after their long series, the Spurs will benefit from being rested. This will help with Parker a little nicked up in the previous two series. Duncan and Ginobili have this rest and the accumulated rest from the regular season, and be good to go and play their biggest per game minute averages of the season.

The HEAT benefit strongly from having the home court in this series. In a normal series I love the underdog having game 6 at home because it gives them options to finish it off at home or have that opportunity to extend to a game seven. In the Finals 2-3-2 format, underdogs have their best option to win the Finals in 5. Because 6 and 7 are at home for the HEAT, the road for the Spurs to win a long series is limited. Still, I believe that if any team can ignore home-road dynamics, it is the Spurs. Going back to the Mavs-HEAT series two years ago, the big German closed it out in 6 games, at Miami.

So, that is my prediction, Spurs in 6, with Tony Parker as the MVP of the Finals. There will be sentiment for Duncan to get it but the only way the Spurs win this title is if Parker has a dominant 22 and 9 type of series, and he is their best player now. Spurs split at Miami, take 2 of 3 at home, and then win 6 in Miami, tough as that will be. If this goes seven, Miami wins. And if Miami takes both at home to start, Miami wins. The Spurs cover the possibilities in between, and could win in five, though they’d have to take both in Miami I think to do that. I believe it has only happened twice ever that the underdog wins all three at home so there is no counting on that. 

In any case, this will be a really entertaining series between some legendary players. We have 10 Hall of Famers competing in this one (yes, TMac and Bosh is going to get in, no matter how much I hate that) (I’m including Pop and Riley), and there should be some good drama.

No matter what else happens, I have nailed my best ever post season run. 13-1 so far, so the worst I can do is 13-2. So let me make one more prediction while I am feeling it a little: Neither of these teams gets back to the Finals in the next five years. Spurs will retire/dismantle at some point, and the HEAT will break up after next year. Early prediction for next year is Pacers-Thunder, but let’s wait before we get there. 

For now, let’s all get excited about some Gregg Popovich end of quarter interviews! Enjoy everyone. 

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 13-1 (In progress, San Antonio over Miami is the Final pick)

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3