2013 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

So here we are, Spurs versus the HEAT. For the third year in a row I am faced with trying to build a case against Lebron winning a ring (yes, I am aware of the suggestion bias in that previous sentence).  In my Mavericks pick two years ago I was dead on: the HEAT hadn’t found themselves yet, the Mavs were on a special roll, there was history from ‘06, and Lebron was still shrinking in big games at that point. So I got the prediction right, and felt pretty good about myself.

Last year I picked the Thunder in an equally logical and emotional pick. I loved Durant but especially the Westbrook matchup on Chalmers and Cole. I underrated the newness of the Thunder to the limelight, Lebron’s true ascension to clutch status (which I should have seen coming from the Boston debacle in game six of the previous series), and the lingering effects of Ron Artest’s elbow on James Harden’s head (I couldn’t bring myself to write the pun that would be “Peace’s elbow to Harden’s head”). I don’t hate that Thunder pick in retrospect, but clearly the HEAT should have been the favorites in my mind.

So I come to Spurs-HEAT. In the course of reading some articles for work this week, I came across an interesting comparison with this coming series. “Learning and Organizational Effectiveness” by Nicholas Andreadis posited two definitions for effectiveness. The first was basically “the accomplishment of missions or achievement of objectives”. The second, perhaps not meant to be opposing to the first, is “acquiring of competencies, development, and self knowledge”. This second principle is based around the concept that true success isn’t measured by accomplishing a result but having the expectation that success is predictable. Because the system is so competent, achievement is the most logical result and even expected.

I immediately associated the HEAT with the first theory. They won a title, and made three straight Finals appearances. They are 10-1 in playoff series under Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Those results are indisputably impressive no matter the other circumstances, and deserve praise and mention in the history books. But that’s the extent of what I see. They achieved results, but the team isn’t its most effective. It has gone stretches without an identity, lucked into its now signature offense because Bosh got hurt last year and they improvised on the fly while in the playoffs, and had challenges from teams (Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Boston) that it really shouldn’t have been challenged by. They have the talent, and the results, but what I think most of us are disappointed by is the lack of efficiency during that time in between.

The Spurs on the other hand have that organizational efficiency delineated in the second definition. The way the system is set up “creates predictable results, if not expected”. About three guys on the team can dunk, their three best players are 101 years old combined, multiple team members are without ACLs, and they are not exciting to the casual fan. But Pop is the best at making adjustments, the culture of the club is outstanding, and the system is well oiled, fine tuned, and adjustable. Their system works so well it is a surprise when they don’t success, like last year to the Thunder. Someone has to beat them, they don’t lose to others.

Oh, and I also wrote this ridiculous 2450 word piece on the Spurs' success only 3 months ago. It now seems pretty brilliant if I am being honest.

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

Lebron’s first Finals appearance, seemingly lost to time, was the embarrassment against the Spurs six years ago. I feel like that Finals will be forgotten either way this one goes. If Lebron wins 5 titles, people won’t care about that isolated incident. If he loses in the Finals from here out, that one series won’t be harped on as much as the Mavs series or whatever happens this year. We don’t talk about Kobe losing the ’04 Finals to the Pistons for example, just as we don't talk about any individual Super Bowl loss by the Buffalo Bills. 

However, that Finals, suspiciously underpublicized and buried by the NBA, is now very relevant. At that point at least, Pop had Lebron’s number. Sure, the Cavs at that time were really limited….but news flash, so are the HEAT now. Wade and Bosh aren’t exactly dominating and are probably overpaid, slightly over the hill minor stars now rather than superstars. Lebron’s brilliance puts them here, though he is undeniably more developed than he was six years ago. Of course, so are Parker and Pop.

When I started codify my thoughts on this series, I withdrew from the individual matchup and gazed back at the last two years. As I did so, I realized the case for the Spurs was made for me. The ’13 Spurs recall the ‘11 Mavs much more than they resemble the ’12 Thunder. In both the ‘11 and ‘12 Finals the more experienced and desperate team won. Miami just happened to flip roles between the two years. I wouldn’t necessarily describe the Spurs as more desperate, but they are definitively older and more mature of a group with a shorter window of titles.

Both those Mavs and these Spurs share a decades-long dominance by a star big man, and two guards hungry for a title. I would describe Kidd and Terry of two years ago as having the qualities of “older guard wanting a title”, “fiery off the bench scorer”, “pick and roll monsters”, and “mental leader of an efficient midrange onslaught”. Parker and Ginobili match those qualities, mixed a little bit between the two but similar to Kidd and Terry in total. Leonard and Chandler don’t fit the comparison, but overall the fit is there for these teams.

For this series, the Spurs have the advantage down low. They have a strong coaching advantage. I hold both Lionel Hollins and Spo in similar esteem. Top 10 coaches, but not in Pop’s league. Even if the HEAT start the Finals strong, I believe in the Spurs ability to adjust and get back in it. Again, similar to how Carlisle outcoached Spo in the ’11 Finals.

The matchups are very even. Parker and Duncan should kill Chalmers and Bosh respectively. Wade should outclass Danny Green. I think Miami forces Splitter off the court with smaller packages, and wins that matchup. And I love Kawhi Leonard, but he can’t contain Lebron. He and Paul George might be the best defenders against Lebron, but LBJ is going to get going and be insanely productive again. If the Spurs win this series, it won’t be because Lebron shrinks this time. It will be for other reasons, such as support…similar to CLE-SAS in ’07.

The Spurs have the skills and personal to rotate people with all those shooters and bench guys. Ginobili should equalize Wade at this point when he comes off the bench. And while I am not sure the HEAT will be tired after their long series, the Spurs will benefit from being rested. This will help with Parker a little nicked up in the previous two series. Duncan and Ginobili have this rest and the accumulated rest from the regular season, and be good to go and play their biggest per game minute averages of the season.

The HEAT benefit strongly from having the home court in this series. In a normal series I love the underdog having game 6 at home because it gives them options to finish it off at home or have that opportunity to extend to a game seven. In the Finals 2-3-2 format, underdogs have their best option to win the Finals in 5. Because 6 and 7 are at home for the HEAT, the road for the Spurs to win a long series is limited. Still, I believe that if any team can ignore home-road dynamics, it is the Spurs. Going back to the Mavs-HEAT series two years ago, the big German closed it out in 6 games, at Miami.

So, that is my prediction, Spurs in 6, with Tony Parker as the MVP of the Finals. There will be sentiment for Duncan to get it but the only way the Spurs win this title is if Parker has a dominant 22 and 9 type of series, and he is their best player now. Spurs split at Miami, take 2 of 3 at home, and then win 6 in Miami, tough as that will be. If this goes seven, Miami wins. And if Miami takes both at home to start, Miami wins. The Spurs cover the possibilities in between, and could win in five, though they’d have to take both in Miami I think to do that. I believe it has only happened twice ever that the underdog wins all three at home so there is no counting on that. 

In any case, this will be a really entertaining series between some legendary players. We have 10 Hall of Famers competing in this one (yes, TMac and Bosh is going to get in, no matter how much I hate that) (I’m including Pop and Riley), and there should be some good drama.

No matter what else happens, I have nailed my best ever post season run. 13-1 so far, so the worst I can do is 13-2. So let me make one more prediction while I am feeling it a little: Neither of these teams gets back to the Finals in the next five years. Spurs will retire/dismantle at some point, and the HEAT will break up after next year. Early prediction for next year is Pacers-Thunder, but let’s wait before we get there. 

For now, let’s all get excited about some Gregg Popovich end of quarter interviews! Enjoy everyone. 

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 13-1 (In progress, San Antonio over Miami is the Final pick)

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

The Most Successful Franchise in Sports Is...

I have wanted to write a column on my favorite franchise in sports for a long while now. I consider them the best team, the most accomplished, the one I respect, the one I would love to be responsible for. Their unparalleled success over the last 15 years (coincidentally my sports watching life) is something to behold. They have won a handful of titles and were close to several more.

I look at things in roughly three ways in terms of value in my favorite sports team: titles, sustained competitiveness, and statistical excellence. Markets, superstars, flashy play, Sportscenter ratings....these things don’t really matter to me like they do to many sports fans in this country. To me, in terms of rings, longevity, and sabermetric excellence, the supreme franchise is clear.....

The New England Spurs.  

Er, the San Antonio Patriots?

See, I get confused with these two teams. I mean, what’s the difference? Okay, one plays in the West, one in the East. One has 13 players on the team, the other 53. One team’s owner is well known, for the other the GM is much better known comparatively. Oh yeah, one plays basketball and the other team plays football.

But see, the fact of the matter is it is hard to draw a distinguishable line between the New England Patriots and San Antonio Spurs (got it right that time, nice). They look nearly identical to me.

Look at it this way: The Patriots system is said to be based on these principles (see article at end for source):

a. Self critical, perfectionist, militaristic approach

b. Emphasis on team, equality among players, and lack of individual ego

c. Strong work ethic, intelligence, and high level of focus and preparation for each individual game

d. Versatile players, able to play multiple positions

e. Multiple schemes intended to take advantage of their opponent’s weaknesses

Um, sound familiar San Antonio?

Let’s break it down in depth:

1. Both teams hired a somewhat misanthropic, angry, sarcastic, caustic, but brilliant coach in the late 90’s/early 00’s. Popovich and Belichick are similar in so many aspects it is scary. Both have names constantly misspelled. Both have been simultaneous coach/GMs. Both have family connections to military traditions that clearly influence their style and bearing. Bill and Pop both avoid media obligations like the plague, but in the time they are forced to give interviews, they can give some gems, many times without really trying. Both coaches are known for being defensive wizards that now lead offensive teams. More on that later.

2. Neither team location is a big market, but they are within one. Foxboro is not even close to what you would call a metropolitan center. Without the Pats, one would be hard pressed to find it on a map. I know, I grew up near there. But in the larger context, NE is one of the nation’s biggest sports nations. It has a unique attitude, a vast regional service network, and sports history both long term and lately. Similarly, San Antonio is not exactly a large market. But they love their Spurs, and the larger Texas area has a dozen well attended teams and regional pride. They likewise support success, and the state of Texas has 7 of the last 18 NBA titles, and many more conference titles and appearances. Speaking of that kind of success…

3. Both teams have won multiple titles, with the Pats’ titles being a little more concentrated than the Spurs, but the Spurs having more (‘02, ‘04, ‘05 for the Pats, ‘99, ‘03, ‘05, ‘07 for the Spurs). Both have been in the title game or the conference title game on many more occasions. And both teams started their run with a solo title with an unusual circumstance in the year leading up to it (lockout for the Spurs, 9-11 and Brady’s random emergence for the Pats) and then after a few more years ran off a truly dominant period before settling into where they are now. More on that at the end.

4. Both teams are riding impressive longevity streaks. The Spurs run of winning 50+ games is legendary (13 straight now, one of those was within a 66 game season, and it would be 15 if not for a 50 total game season where they were above the percentage needed for 50+ wins in a normal season). The Pats’ run of 10+ win seasons (10 and counting, 11 of the last 12, including a year Tom Brady didn’t play) is also fairly unworldly. They have had 12+ wins in 7 of the last 10, which is mind boggling. The teams’ winning percentage during the era of Duncan/Brady are .695 and .777 respectively. That makes Duncan the third highest winner active in the NBA. Number 1 and 2? Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, his teammates. Brady’s ridiculous .777 is 25 points higher than Staubach and 66 points higher than Montana, and Brady has far lapped them in total regular season wins. I mean, the guy directly ahead of Brady in career wins, Marino, has 93 losses. The guy behind Brady in wins, Tarkenton, has 109 losses. Brady, with roughly the same amount of wins (124), has only 39 losses. That’s insane. 39 losses…in 12 years. I have no words.

Speaking of Duncan and Brady…

5. Both teams have an unassuming superstar, though in different ways. Duncan was a first overall pick, but doesn’t act much like it. He is quiet, and no one seems him as a standout. But he is a top 10 player all time, one of the best winners ever, and probably the best player ever at his position (depending on what you call his position that is). His offensive efficiency is amazing to watch, especially statistically. We’ll get to stats later with the Spurs and Pats.

Brady himself is unassuming in that he was a 6th round pick. 200 people were thought to be better than him, and he was 4th on the Pats depth chart at his position for a year and a half. It took an injury to get him even on the field. Rather like it took David Robinson’s foot injury to give the Spurs the requisite pingpong balls to get Duncan. Is there some similarity in Bledsoe and Robinson needing the new guys to come in to give them a chance to get them a ring? I know Robinson still played WITH Duncan while Brady replaced Bledsoe, but the comparison and sequence of events still works.

Both guys also overcame being thought of as system guys, attributing their first major wins to someone else (Robinson/lockout, Pats defense/tuck rule). While both arguments have merit, clearly these guys were big parts of those wins and the start to the teams’ prolonged success.

Tim and Tom have some funny comparable quirks too, the names for one. Forgetting even the one letter difference, both never go by their full names, Timothy and Thomas. Funny enough, both have teammates call them by something else entirely, Timmy and Tommy. They wear flipped numbers, 21 and 12. I could go on and use the word "fundamental", but I won’t.

6. Part of the reason I enjoy following both the Spurs and Pats is that they have a talent with money, and free agents. I would immediately hire either to run my personal finances. They are brilliant, principled, and great talent evaluators. You don’t hear about their cap problems, and if anything you consistently hear about their stars taking less money to stay and allow the team to be competitive. Duncan and Brady both did it recently. They make so few mistakes with contracts (Richard Jefferson and Roosevelt Covlin are probably the biggest, and the teams got out of both of those). They pay their handful of stars, never pay people over 30, and pull random people off of the scrap heap who do a specific thing well (Danny Green, Danny Woodhead, Tiago Splitter, Sebastian Volmer, Matt Bonner, Teddy Bruschi) and pay them little to nothing to do it. And guys that leave for “greener pastures” (Deion Branch, Stephen Jackson), end up coming back, begging to be let back in. Both teams also took players whose talent was undeniable, but whose chemistry just didn’t fit and with whom the financial picture wasn’t right, and sent them packing (Luis Scola, Richard Seymour). It is amazing as well how both teams just plug and play so many guys for single nights or weeks at a time. Need Gary Neal to hit 3s for a week? Go for it. Donte Stallworth needed for a 60 yard touchdown? Do it. Parker/Brady hurt? George Hill and Matt Cassel can do a veritable imitation.

7. There is a similarity between the teams in that both the Spurs and Pats transitioned. Both won titles with defensive first. This included some rough tactics at time. Both employed players not many other teams particularly liked, like Rodney Harrison, and Bruce Bowen as examples. The Spurs embraced the Hack-A-Shaq, didn’t mind grinding it out, fouling before an inbounds pass, and finding any edge to win. Likewise to the rule changes in the NBA following the Spurs reign, the Pats also incurred the attention of the league office. They held and slammed their way to 3 titles in 4 years. A particularly tough playoff game versus the Colts where Pats’ DBs held Harrison and Wayne so badly they weren’t moving 3 seconds into the play caused the NFL to change those rules. Both teams took advantage of their defensive eras and abilities, and won titles out of it, unapologetically. There was also that Spygate thing. I mean, things happen, right?

8. Both teams also saw a new era dawning. For the Pats, it was the changing defense rules mixed with Brady’s knee injury in 2008. For the Spurs, Bowen’s retirement and Duncan’s own knee issues gave them two straight early round losses in the playoffs.

Instead of accepting the changes quietly and giving up on the hope of future successes, they innovated. Pop and Bill observed the evolving rules and culture and changed their rosters accordingly. Duncan gave way to Ginobili and Parker, taking advantage of the handcheck rules and fouling principles. Instead of winning with physicality, Pop recentered his offense AND defense on the principles of ball movement and precision. This team went from winning with David Robinson and Rasho Nesterovich at center to playing Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw there.

Brady remained the Pats centerpiece, but first Moss and then Welker became their way to exploit the new league. Ginobili and Moss were these teams’ way of being successful in the 06-09 years. They used a unique player with a strange style that was devastatingly effective. Welker and Parker show how now in big tough sports the Spurs and Pats are acknowledging that little fast guys with precision play are the valuable and exploitable commodity. And both teams have another guy coming up (Leonard and Gronk) that they think will be the next unstoppable thing, an evolution of multiple abilities. And I think it will work out for both teams there, with Gronk already pretty much having proven it.

9. The original thing that inspired this column was their efficiency and advanced metrics. I love their offenses just a little too much. I stare at FootballOutsiders for hours on end. I marveled at all the advanced metrics of the 2011-2012 Spurs during their second half run and first ten games of the playoffs.

The ’12 Pats finished at 30.8% DVOA offensive efficiency last year. The next highest were Denver and Green Bay, at 22.1% and 19.5%. It wasn’t close. In fact, the 2012 Pats had one of top ten ever recorded. The top two ever? The ’07 Pats at 43.5% and ’10 Pats with 42.2%. Both were record setting seasons by regular stats too if that is more your thing, setting the overall points record with 589. 

The Spurs rock the plus/minus and assist rates, but it is really their 3 point shooting which is amazing. They don’t have rock stars shooting the three (Danny Green everyone!), but make it work. In ‘11-’12, they lapped the field in 3s (552 to next highest 524 and 514) and 3% (.393 to next nearest .359 and .358). They also led in total buckets, strangely a stat not enough people look at, especially impressive while leading the league in overall shooting percentage (.478). That’s while being near the league stragglers in minutes played (IE, among the fewest overtimes thus less opportunities to score). Oh, and they were third lowest in turnovers. The efficiency is off the charts.

You can go back years to find more and more examples, but these numbers, especially lately, make the analytical part of my brain whirl. These teams are machines, just ruthless automatons that many people hate to watch. I have always been fascinated, and cannot look away. Both teams epitomize the concept of PRODUCTION.

10. Point ten, my final one, is the most interesting but most disturbing similarity to me. Both teams have produced better and better regular seasons, but worse post seasons as time has gone on. It may be due to talent disparity, the offensive style not working as well as the defensive one in the playoffs, the coaches and stars getting older, or just luck. However, these two teams, as successful as they are, are getting knocked out in the second or third rounds and not winning titles. I am inclined to say at least one of these teams will win another title (with the Pats window a hair longer than the Spurs, but the Spurs being a better lock THIS year) before they are done. I would put the over under of combined conference title appearances from here on out for the Spurs and Pats at 2.5 and gladly pound the over.

So despite these teams I love coming to the end of their eras sooner rather than later, I will still watch with hope and support. They are impressive. We should cherish and respect their accomplishments, even if you don’t like them (and believe me, I hated the Spurs for a long time). We will look back on them as impactful teams of this era. And Brady/Duncan are too close to 1 more title that firmly plants them in immortality to let up now. I am not betting against Duncan, Brady, Pop, or Bill for as long as they continue to walk onto their respective fields of contest. No way, I’m not dumb. They’ve only been proving people wrong for a combined 30 years.

MIKE BLISS

PS. For more reading, I highly suggest these two sites on these two teams’ strategy and style:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Patriots_strategy

http://hoops-nation.com/community/topic/62910-an-introduction-to-the-spur%E2%80%99s-offence/