2013 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

So here we are, Spurs versus the HEAT. For the third year in a row I am faced with trying to build a case against Lebron winning a ring (yes, I am aware of the suggestion bias in that previous sentence).  In my Mavericks pick two years ago I was dead on: the HEAT hadn’t found themselves yet, the Mavs were on a special roll, there was history from ‘06, and Lebron was still shrinking in big games at that point. So I got the prediction right, and felt pretty good about myself.

Last year I picked the Thunder in an equally logical and emotional pick. I loved Durant but especially the Westbrook matchup on Chalmers and Cole. I underrated the newness of the Thunder to the limelight, Lebron’s true ascension to clutch status (which I should have seen coming from the Boston debacle in game six of the previous series), and the lingering effects of Ron Artest’s elbow on James Harden’s head (I couldn’t bring myself to write the pun that would be “Peace’s elbow to Harden’s head”). I don’t hate that Thunder pick in retrospect, but clearly the HEAT should have been the favorites in my mind.

So I come to Spurs-HEAT. In the course of reading some articles for work this week, I came across an interesting comparison with this coming series. “Learning and Organizational Effectiveness” by Nicholas Andreadis posited two definitions for effectiveness. The first was basically “the accomplishment of missions or achievement of objectives”. The second, perhaps not meant to be opposing to the first, is “acquiring of competencies, development, and self knowledge”. This second principle is based around the concept that true success isn’t measured by accomplishing a result but having the expectation that success is predictable. Because the system is so competent, achievement is the most logical result and even expected.

I immediately associated the HEAT with the first theory. They won a title, and made three straight Finals appearances. They are 10-1 in playoff series under Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Those results are indisputably impressive no matter the other circumstances, and deserve praise and mention in the history books. But that’s the extent of what I see. They achieved results, but the team isn’t its most effective. It has gone stretches without an identity, lucked into its now signature offense because Bosh got hurt last year and they improvised on the fly while in the playoffs, and had challenges from teams (Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Boston) that it really shouldn’t have been challenged by. They have the talent, and the results, but what I think most of us are disappointed by is the lack of efficiency during that time in between.

The Spurs on the other hand have that organizational efficiency delineated in the second definition. The way the system is set up “creates predictable results, if not expected”. About three guys on the team can dunk, their three best players are 101 years old combined, multiple team members are without ACLs, and they are not exciting to the casual fan. But Pop is the best at making adjustments, the culture of the club is outstanding, and the system is well oiled, fine tuned, and adjustable. Their system works so well it is a surprise when they don’t success, like last year to the Thunder. Someone has to beat them, they don’t lose to others.

Oh, and I also wrote this ridiculous 2450 word piece on the Spurs' success only 3 months ago. It now seems pretty brilliant if I am being honest.

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

Lebron’s first Finals appearance, seemingly lost to time, was the embarrassment against the Spurs six years ago. I feel like that Finals will be forgotten either way this one goes. If Lebron wins 5 titles, people won’t care about that isolated incident. If he loses in the Finals from here out, that one series won’t be harped on as much as the Mavs series or whatever happens this year. We don’t talk about Kobe losing the ’04 Finals to the Pistons for example, just as we don't talk about any individual Super Bowl loss by the Buffalo Bills. 

However, that Finals, suspiciously underpublicized and buried by the NBA, is now very relevant. At that point at least, Pop had Lebron’s number. Sure, the Cavs at that time were really limited….but news flash, so are the HEAT now. Wade and Bosh aren’t exactly dominating and are probably overpaid, slightly over the hill minor stars now rather than superstars. Lebron’s brilliance puts them here, though he is undeniably more developed than he was six years ago. Of course, so are Parker and Pop.

When I started codify my thoughts on this series, I withdrew from the individual matchup and gazed back at the last two years. As I did so, I realized the case for the Spurs was made for me. The ’13 Spurs recall the ‘11 Mavs much more than they resemble the ’12 Thunder. In both the ‘11 and ‘12 Finals the more experienced and desperate team won. Miami just happened to flip roles between the two years. I wouldn’t necessarily describe the Spurs as more desperate, but they are definitively older and more mature of a group with a shorter window of titles.

Both those Mavs and these Spurs share a decades-long dominance by a star big man, and two guards hungry for a title. I would describe Kidd and Terry of two years ago as having the qualities of “older guard wanting a title”, “fiery off the bench scorer”, “pick and roll monsters”, and “mental leader of an efficient midrange onslaught”. Parker and Ginobili match those qualities, mixed a little bit between the two but similar to Kidd and Terry in total. Leonard and Chandler don’t fit the comparison, but overall the fit is there for these teams.

For this series, the Spurs have the advantage down low. They have a strong coaching advantage. I hold both Lionel Hollins and Spo in similar esteem. Top 10 coaches, but not in Pop’s league. Even if the HEAT start the Finals strong, I believe in the Spurs ability to adjust and get back in it. Again, similar to how Carlisle outcoached Spo in the ’11 Finals.

The matchups are very even. Parker and Duncan should kill Chalmers and Bosh respectively. Wade should outclass Danny Green. I think Miami forces Splitter off the court with smaller packages, and wins that matchup. And I love Kawhi Leonard, but he can’t contain Lebron. He and Paul George might be the best defenders against Lebron, but LBJ is going to get going and be insanely productive again. If the Spurs win this series, it won’t be because Lebron shrinks this time. It will be for other reasons, such as support…similar to CLE-SAS in ’07.

The Spurs have the skills and personal to rotate people with all those shooters and bench guys. Ginobili should equalize Wade at this point when he comes off the bench. And while I am not sure the HEAT will be tired after their long series, the Spurs will benefit from being rested. This will help with Parker a little nicked up in the previous two series. Duncan and Ginobili have this rest and the accumulated rest from the regular season, and be good to go and play their biggest per game minute averages of the season.

The HEAT benefit strongly from having the home court in this series. In a normal series I love the underdog having game 6 at home because it gives them options to finish it off at home or have that opportunity to extend to a game seven. In the Finals 2-3-2 format, underdogs have their best option to win the Finals in 5. Because 6 and 7 are at home for the HEAT, the road for the Spurs to win a long series is limited. Still, I believe that if any team can ignore home-road dynamics, it is the Spurs. Going back to the Mavs-HEAT series two years ago, the big German closed it out in 6 games, at Miami.

So, that is my prediction, Spurs in 6, with Tony Parker as the MVP of the Finals. There will be sentiment for Duncan to get it but the only way the Spurs win this title is if Parker has a dominant 22 and 9 type of series, and he is their best player now. Spurs split at Miami, take 2 of 3 at home, and then win 6 in Miami, tough as that will be. If this goes seven, Miami wins. And if Miami takes both at home to start, Miami wins. The Spurs cover the possibilities in between, and could win in five, though they’d have to take both in Miami I think to do that. I believe it has only happened twice ever that the underdog wins all three at home so there is no counting on that. 

In any case, this will be a really entertaining series between some legendary players. We have 10 Hall of Famers competing in this one (yes, TMac and Bosh is going to get in, no matter how much I hate that) (I’m including Pop and Riley), and there should be some good drama.

No matter what else happens, I have nailed my best ever post season run. 13-1 so far, so the worst I can do is 13-2. So let me make one more prediction while I am feeling it a little: Neither of these teams gets back to the Finals in the next five years. Spurs will retire/dismantle at some point, and the HEAT will break up after next year. Early prediction for next year is Pacers-Thunder, but let’s wait before we get there. 

For now, let’s all get excited about some Gregg Popovich end of quarter interviews! Enjoy everyone. 

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 13-1 (In progress, San Antonio over Miami is the Final pick)

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2012 NBA Redraft Odyssey: MB vs VP

VP - As the start of a new NBA season arrives in full force, Bliss and I have returned to bring you this year’s Redraft column. Now if you need a refresher on what we’re talking about, this column will be a Simmons-style trade value column, except we will be “redrafting” the top 60 current NBA players, based on the players’ current levels and their potentials, to create 30 tandems to create our own “bizarro NBA.” Now, this is going to be a geography-independent (as you’ll see once you see the “teams” that are doing the drafting) and a completely biased endeavor, but we’re hoping to alleviate that last issue with our differing viewpoints and some statistical grounding.

MB - Let’s draft!


THE MAIN EVENT
MB - The Redraft Rule Book:
1.      Any current NBA player is eligible. They must have either played last year or
clearly be playing this coming year.
2.      Their current salary doesn’t matter. All the 1st round players would get max
level contracts under a similar CBA to what is in place now (say 14-17 million
based on slot). 2nd round players would get a star level contract not quite at the
first round level (9-13 million based on slot). The old contracts wouldn’t matter.
Technically, you could consider their motivation level based on past income, but
for the purposes of this column, we will not consider this factor much.
3.      Assume you are getting the player for the next 5 years. The lesson of this is, of
course, that the age (and games logged) of the player matters.
4.      We won’t count minor injuries, especially in the scope of 5 years. Kevin Love’s
hand injury won’t be a big consideration, though Dirk’s knee might be. Amare’s   knee is in no way minor.
5.      We will not considering offensive systems or anything like that. Assume that the
coaches who will work with these teams are smart enough to cater to the two starters that they immediately receive. Vinny Del Negro isn’t involved at all.

VP - For those of you keeping track at home, let’s get to the most glaring missed calls from last year first - both Bliss and I passed on LeBron in the top 5 for the Redraft/Value column and predicted a Thunder over Bulls finals matchup. Ouch. In our defense, Rose got hurt, but in all honesty, LBJ was probably not going to be stopped from grabbing his first ring this past season. Our Rose/Durant/Dwight/Deron picks are still pretty defensible despite the injuries, but Bliss reached with Melo and I definitely reached with Amare (can you tell that we’ve both lived in NY?). Chris Paul made us pay for doubting him by proving his worth in the short-term, although we were oddly prescient with our LeBron/Ray Allen pairing, so I’d say that’s a wash (whistles while changing the topic, Mike is death staring me now). Now without further ado, let’s start this year’s redraft odyssey!



1. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Kevin Durant.
MB - No argument. Perhaps the best talent, best character, and best “asset” a franchise can have right now. 23 years old. And I totally thought of the team name.

2. MB - Akron Integrity select LeBron James. I hate it, but the talent is there and he is in his prime. Hard to argue against it. And the second best team name I thought of.
VP - It’s the right pick, but I can still hate it. I’m just glad I didn’t have to make it.

3. VP -  Bangor Moose take Dwight Howard.
MB - Ouch, ouch, ouch. Sorry, my back started hurting all of a sudden.
VP - The back injury worries me too, but it’s hard not to take the league’s best center at this spot.

4. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Kevin Love.
VP - Great rebounder + versatile scorer + deft passer = bona fide franchise cornerstone.

5. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Russell Westbrook
MB - RW has more value without Durant, so this is the right place for him.
VP - Finally free to be the alpha dog he is.

6. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Rajon Rondo.
Honestly, I would have taken him over Westbrook. Rondo has proven to be a strong team leader, raise his game in the playoffs and run a variety of team styles. Oh, and Rondo would look awesome in like Black, grey, and Red highlights. That kind of uniform.
VP - Is that an alternate jersey you made in 2K?
MB - Um, no.....okay maybe.
VP - Team name was mine though.
MB - Credit due, and given.

7. VP - Montana Roam take Deron Williams.
MB - Montana will make sense later readers. And for Deron, I have always loved him and think this is the correct place for him. The last two years have been a little troubling, but overall he might be highest rated PG if you added values across all categories.

8. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Kyrie Irving. Draws your eye on every single play. Intangibles and tangibles are off the charts. Love him so much. And I want it on record VP wanted to kill me after this pick. That’s a good sign you are doing something right.  
VP - Uncle Drew will be taking all these youngbloods, with their rappity-hippity-hop and flashy shoes, to school for years to come.

9. VP - Kansas City BBQ take DeMarcus Cousins.
MB - Editorial note, this was the name for the previous team, but once VP uttered the horrible words “Demarcus Cousins”, I knew BBQ needed to be reassigned.
VP - His talent level, if harnessed by the right coach, could make his team monstrous.

10. MB - Springfield Loggers take Derrick Rose.
MB - Injury aside, he is talented and has the drive. Adrian Peterson was ripping off 60 yard TD runs, 8 months after an ACL tear. Rose will be balling hard by February and for years to come.
VP - Editorial note: MB originally picked “Derek” Rose. Here is our unedited gchat exchange:

“VP: uh, Derek?
MB: I can’t spell.
VP: No, I think that was a Freudian slip. You miss the Captain.
MB: Oh shove off.”

11. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Blake Griffin.
MB - Don’t like the low post game, but the excitement level is undeniable. He will print tickets. And totally my team name.

12. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Lamarcus Aldridge.
MB - The best possible name for a team, amuses me incredibly. Geeking out a little too much.
VP - Safe cornerstone to build around.

13. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Andrew Bynum.
VP - Nothing ominous about that being pick #13 at all.
MB - Not at all. Also, what happens when the Offense’s Offensive Production is Offensive? Sorry to go on offense with this commentary, but the Offense made that offense more likely.

14. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Marc Gasol.
MB - More consistent, less liable for injury than Bynum. Also, currently playing. I would have taken him over Bynum

15. VP - Savannah Long Grass take CP3.
VP - Immediate title window, then tanking for a number 1 pick.
MB - Yup and yup. Don’t know what else to say. That knee is giving. Just is.

16. MB - Montpelier Saps take Josh Smith.
MB - 2nd banana, but still hasn’t hit his prime and made strides last year.

17. VP - Hartford Whalers take Rudy Gay.
MB - As talented as Durant perhaps, but just doesn’t care every other game. I’ll believe it when I see it. The team is so perhaps he would play better closer to home.

18. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters select James Harden.
MB - More than talented enough for this. But he can’t be the lead guy. I’ll match him with someone in the next round that can be the alpha guy. If that makes sense.

19. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Ricky Rubio.
VP - It was time to reach and make a bit of a crowd-pleasing move. You’re welcome ladies.
MB - Screw you, a**hole. That was my pick. Oh, sorry. Calmer now.

20. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Carmelo Anthony.
MB - See how it feels? Huh?! See how it feels VP??? Okay, seriously though, too much talent to ignore. Will sell tickets and score a ton of points. Still has a chance to mature.
VP - Mike, you know I hated him coming to the Knicks from day one. I would never pick him to be the foundation of my franchise. And as a bitter Knicks fan, I can confidently say that he will never mature.
MB - Don’t be repetitive VP. “Bitter” is an unnecessary modifier to “Knicks fan”. Also, Carmelo would love Albuquerque, right?

21. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Anthony Davis. Fire up the hype machine folks - the Brow is coming back to town!
MB - Fundamentally he needs a lot of work. As a franchise builder, I have no problem with it. I think he becomes more Tyson Chandler than Blake Griffin. That isn’t all a bad thing however.

22. MB - NH Freedom take Greg Monroe. Consistent, would fit well in New Hampshire, very reliable.

23. VP - Delaware Knights take DWade.
MB - I’ll wait to comment until I see his teammate. Not necessarily upset about this.

24. MB - Topeka Twisters take Al Horford. 20-10, 50%, no fuss. Sign me up.

25. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Al Jefferson.
MB - See above. Though I firmly think Horford has a higher ceiling. Won two championships in college. Consistent in the playoffs. Jefferson has neither.

26. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take John Wall. Don’t love him but he was a number 1 pick two years ago and has played well. This will be a determining year for him.
VP - Yeah, he fell way too far. Probably a good place for him.

27. VP - Montreal Illuminati takes Tony Parker. I have a near-MVP argument for him actually (shameless plug: http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-2013-nba-season-predictions-mb-vs.html)
MB - Parker is simply a leader and a winner. Probably would quietly seethe about being selected behind Wall actually, but take it out in a ridiculously efficient season.

28. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Pau Gasol. Would be fine as the primary guy.
VP - If this was 3 years ago.

29. VP - Durham Basilisks take Kobe Bryant. Being drafted after Pau will fuel him.
MB - Taking credit for this team name too. Mamba and Duke references.

30. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Andre Iguodala. Defense, leadership, intangibles. And on the flip...
VP - Chief Blocka is a great pick, but he needs an alpha-dog scorer to flourish.

31. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Dirk Nowitzki to partner Iggy. The Pride will be coached by Don Nelson.
VP - A resounding yes. This team would be so much fun to watch.

32. VP - Durham Basilisks take Chris Bosh to pair with Kobe Bryant. They will be coached by Coach K and will hope to recapture some Team USA magic.
MB - Kobe will only attempt to kill Bosh a few times. Probably a good pairing actually.

33. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Ty Lawson to pair with Pau Gasol. They will be coached by Mike D’Antoni and score 120 points a game.

34. VP - Montreal Illuminati take Serge Ibaka to pair with Tony Parker. They will be coached by Gregg Popovich, of course.

35. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take Danny Granger to pair with John Wall. They will be coached by Tony Kornheiser.

36. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Steph Curry to pair with Al Jefferson. They will be coached by Kevin McHale and will try to see if Kobe will sell them some ankle insurance (he will not).

37. MB - Topeka Twisters take Kyle Lowry to pair with Al Horford. They will be coached by Scotty Brooks. Seems about right in terms of temperaments for those players. This team will be a plus team in rebounding and field goal percentage.

38. VP - Delaware Knights take Tyson Chandler to go with DWade. They will be coached by Rick Carlisle on their way to either a ring or a trip to the DL.
MB - Maybe more than any other team, this one will be looking for a young star in the next round to become THE guy in two years. Paul George like. Well, maybe not him exactly because…

39. MB - NH Freedom take Paul George to go with Greg Monroe. They will be coached by Larry Bird. Seems right.

40. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Steve Nash to go with Anthony Davis. They will be coached by...oh screw it Steve Nash would be the coach anyways.
MB - I don’t hate it: just don’t think it works for the future. And I claim credit for that coach.

41. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Joakim Noah to pair with Carmelo Anthony. They will be coached by Mike Brown.
VP - (Carmelo screams)
MB - Muhuhuhuhahaha.

42. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Klay Thompson to pair with Ricky Rubio. They will be coached by Jason Kidd.
MB – Nice! Like New Jersey after the Vince Carter trade. That didn’t turn out well though.

43. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters selects Kevin Garnett to pair with James Harden. They will be coached by Derek Fisher. Mainly because KG is too hard for most people to handle and Harden should probably be allowed to talk to himself most of the time.

44. VP - Hartford Whalers take Roy Hibbert to pair with Rudy Gay. They will be coached by Hubie Brown.
MB – Absolutely. And a good pairing in terms of usage. Strong defensive team.

45. MB - Montpelier Saps take Brandon Jennings to pair with Josh Smith. They will be coached by Avery Johnson. The crazy team who will force a ton of turnovers, and also commit a ton of turnovers.

46. VP - Savannah Long Grass take Marcin Gortat to pair with CP3. They will be coached by Alvin Gentry.
MB - Just run all the sets they had for Nash and Gortat. Which, you know, wasn’t incredible but was decent.

47. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Eric Gordon to pair with Marc Gasol. They will be coached by Phoenix’s knee doctor.

48. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Jrue Holiday to pair with Andrew Bynum. They will be coached by Doug Collins. Real life, meet bizarro NBA. Bizarro NBA, meet real life.

49. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Joe Johnson to pair with Lamarcus Aldridge. They will be coached by Ernie Johnson. Mainly due to temperament.

50. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Monta Ellis to pair with Blake Griffin. They will be coached by Larry Brown, who will quit midseason.

51. MB - Springfield Loggers take Jonas Valanciunas to pair with Derrick Rose. They will be coached by Michael Wilbon, because of the Chicago connections.

52. VP - Kansas City BBQ take Danilo Gallinari to pair with Demarcus Cousins.
MB - They will be coached by a translator. Or something, I don’t know.

53. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Paul Millsap to go with Kyrie Irving. They will be coached by Kenny the Jet Smith. Just a solid team, guys I think Alaska would love having. Need a shooting guard to add to this, and would be awesome.

54. VP - Montana Roam take Brook Lopez to go with Deron Williams. They will be coached by Jerry Sloan, of course, who already lives in Montana. Deron screams.
MB - I claim credit for that coach selection, there is the Montana connection everyone. It is effing perfect. Gerald Wallace ironically is a great fit for this team coming back around.

55. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to pair with Rajon Rondo. They will be coached by Doc Rivers. I would love to get Kevin Martin or David Lee coming back with this team if we went to three rounds. Or Pierce of course.

56. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Andrew Bogut to pair with Russell Westbrook. They will be coached by Tom Thibodeau.
MB - What a nightmare to defend Westbrook, what a bigger nightmare to try to score on them at all. Add like Thabo, Gerald Wallace, Reggie Evans and this is a monster team.

57. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Mike Conley to go with Kevin Love. They will be coached by Rick Adelman. That clearly worked out for Love last season, so why change a good thing up?

58. VP - Bangor Moose takes Goran Dragic to pair with Dwight Howard. They will be coached by Shaq, of course.
MB - No complaints. Add a couple of shooters, basically the 2008-2009 Magic all over again. That isn’t a bad thing, they did go to the Finals.
VP - Exactly. This could just as easily have been Brandon Knight (who would’ve been perfect with Kevin Love), but I think Goran’s scoring is a better match.

59. MB - Akron Integrity take Andrea Bargnani to pair with Lebron James. They will be coached by Dan Gilbert. Getting a little silly, but Lebron should have to fight with everyone in his organization, on the court and off it. And someone like Bradley Beal coming around again in the third round, that works out really well for this team.

60. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Evan Turner to pair with Kevin Durant. They will be coached by Phil Jackson.
MB – Love it and totally agree. Kind of a Jordan/Pippen like division of responsibilities on this team (ie one scorer who dominates the ball and the other guy is second but more cleans up on defense, rebounds well, and facilitates from a 2-4 position). Let’s project just one more pick. Who would it be?
VP - Probably Duncan. Good right now and room to grow. Duncan can be like David Robinson going forward.
MB - Was thinking Pierce or Knight, but that works. Might be my team to beat considering that third round pick. The Parker/Ibaka/Pop team would be really good too though. They could add Varejao pretty easily in the middle of the third, that would be a dangerous group.

 

MB – Okay everyone, thanks for tagging along with the VP and myself on this redraft odyssey. We had a lot of fun, and appreciate you hanging with us. Have a great year. Even if, you know, your favorite player is traded two nights before the season starts.


-Mike Bliss and Vishal Patel