NBA 2014 Finals Predictions

11.5 months later….it is the Spurs and HEAT again. It wasn’t a wasted year per se, but the expected Final Four teams were the last 4 teams standing. I did pick the Spurs in 5 over the Pacers at the beginning of the year, and still feel good about my thought process. Spurs in 6 seems more logical now, but a similar thought to where I started. Honestly, I feel better about the pick now that when I made it 6 months ago.

Many think that the HEAT had a more impressive run to the Finals this year, but that isn’t true. The HEAT got by Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Indiana. All decent teams, but not elite and not in their best shape. Their adjusted win margin is about +7.1. The Spurs had to beat the Mavs (who would have gone to the ECF were things switched), Blazers, and Thunder (their nemesis and horrid matchup). Their adjusted win margin is +8.2. The HEAT got scored on well in stretches by the inept Pacers. I think the Spurs have a few absolute masterpiece showcases on offense in this series, and can also gut out some other games.

Also, some have pointed out that the Spurs played 3 more games than the HEAT this postseason and may be tired. First, the idea that the rested team wins more is actually wrong. Stats show when there is a 4 games played or less discrepancy in playoff teams for the Finals, the team that played the MOST games won the title just under 73% of the time. It seems the experience, rhythm, and reps mean more than rest. And it will be only a day difference in rest since their last game, which helps Parker’s ankle and pretty much no one else on either team.

Oh, and the HEAT are actually older on average than the Spurs, and only the Spurs have players in the 18-23 age range who play. Sure Duncan and Manu together qualify for retirement benefits, but the whole point is the team plays a deep bench and spreads minutes. They will be ready.

The truth is the Spurs were under a minute from winning a title last year. They probably were better than Miami; Miami just had the best player. The Spurs actually outscored them in that series. It didn’t help that Tony Parker was hurt. Miami was more clutch and a bit more athletic. The Spurs system did beat them, it just didn’t bury them.

So the question of this series is, what’s the difference since last year? Well, the Spurs got better and the HEAT got worse. Wade continues to decline. His lack of shooting actually clogs the lane in pretty bad ways, and the fact he cannot be explosive each and every touch limits his total effectiveness. Battier is a beaten shell of the guy he was. He has already signed on for an announcing gig in college hoops for goodness sake. Allen is perhaps 90% of himself from last year. I have no idea what happened to Cole/Chalmers, they have so little impact. Lebron is about the same and so is Bosh. The HEAT have enough to win, very clearly. Mostly because of Lebron. But I don’t think they pull this one off.

Parker/Manu/Duncan are about the same players they were last year. Scarily, Parker may be HEALTHIER than he was for that series last year. Leonard is better in pretty much every way.  As long as he is aggressive on offense, his impact will be gigantic (darkhorse candidate for Finals MVP). Marco Belinelli should have a great impact, and he wasn’t there last year. Mills was there last year, but he was in no way this involved. He can match Gary Neal’s overall shooting impact, but run the team far more dynamically as a PG. Mills makes me comfortable in a Spurs pick even if Parker was to be sidelined by his ankle issues.

Duncan can do even better than last year on the interior defense of the HEAT. Bosh has gotten worse defensively and Chris Anderson isn’t the same player. I’m pretty sure I could post up Udonis Haslem at this point. The Spurs PG are still good, and the HEAT PGs are declining for some reason. But I believe the main point here is the Spurs will blast the HEAT in the battle of benches, which will swing this series.

So, Spurs in 6. Duncan walks off, and maybe Pop does too. Duncan does it with an MVP.

2013 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

So here we are, Spurs versus the HEAT. For the third year in a row I am faced with trying to build a case against Lebron winning a ring (yes, I am aware of the suggestion bias in that previous sentence).  In my Mavericks pick two years ago I was dead on: the HEAT hadn’t found themselves yet, the Mavs were on a special roll, there was history from ‘06, and Lebron was still shrinking in big games at that point. So I got the prediction right, and felt pretty good about myself.

Last year I picked the Thunder in an equally logical and emotional pick. I loved Durant but especially the Westbrook matchup on Chalmers and Cole. I underrated the newness of the Thunder to the limelight, Lebron’s true ascension to clutch status (which I should have seen coming from the Boston debacle in game six of the previous series), and the lingering effects of Ron Artest’s elbow on James Harden’s head (I couldn’t bring myself to write the pun that would be “Peace’s elbow to Harden’s head”). I don’t hate that Thunder pick in retrospect, but clearly the HEAT should have been the favorites in my mind.

So I come to Spurs-HEAT. In the course of reading some articles for work this week, I came across an interesting comparison with this coming series. “Learning and Organizational Effectiveness” by Nicholas Andreadis posited two definitions for effectiveness. The first was basically “the accomplishment of missions or achievement of objectives”. The second, perhaps not meant to be opposing to the first, is “acquiring of competencies, development, and self knowledge”. This second principle is based around the concept that true success isn’t measured by accomplishing a result but having the expectation that success is predictable. Because the system is so competent, achievement is the most logical result and even expected.

I immediately associated the HEAT with the first theory. They won a title, and made three straight Finals appearances. They are 10-1 in playoff series under Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Those results are indisputably impressive no matter the other circumstances, and deserve praise and mention in the history books. But that’s the extent of what I see. They achieved results, but the team isn’t its most effective. It has gone stretches without an identity, lucked into its now signature offense because Bosh got hurt last year and they improvised on the fly while in the playoffs, and had challenges from teams (Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Boston) that it really shouldn’t have been challenged by. They have the talent, and the results, but what I think most of us are disappointed by is the lack of efficiency during that time in between.

The Spurs on the other hand have that organizational efficiency delineated in the second definition. The way the system is set up “creates predictable results, if not expected”. About three guys on the team can dunk, their three best players are 101 years old combined, multiple team members are without ACLs, and they are not exciting to the casual fan. But Pop is the best at making adjustments, the culture of the club is outstanding, and the system is well oiled, fine tuned, and adjustable. Their system works so well it is a surprise when they don’t success, like last year to the Thunder. Someone has to beat them, they don’t lose to others.

Oh, and I also wrote this ridiculous 2450 word piece on the Spurs' success only 3 months ago. It now seems pretty brilliant if I am being honest.

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

Lebron’s first Finals appearance, seemingly lost to time, was the embarrassment against the Spurs six years ago. I feel like that Finals will be forgotten either way this one goes. If Lebron wins 5 titles, people won’t care about that isolated incident. If he loses in the Finals from here out, that one series won’t be harped on as much as the Mavs series or whatever happens this year. We don’t talk about Kobe losing the ’04 Finals to the Pistons for example, just as we don't talk about any individual Super Bowl loss by the Buffalo Bills. 

However, that Finals, suspiciously underpublicized and buried by the NBA, is now very relevant. At that point at least, Pop had Lebron’s number. Sure, the Cavs at that time were really limited….but news flash, so are the HEAT now. Wade and Bosh aren’t exactly dominating and are probably overpaid, slightly over the hill minor stars now rather than superstars. Lebron’s brilliance puts them here, though he is undeniably more developed than he was six years ago. Of course, so are Parker and Pop.

When I started codify my thoughts on this series, I withdrew from the individual matchup and gazed back at the last two years. As I did so, I realized the case for the Spurs was made for me. The ’13 Spurs recall the ‘11 Mavs much more than they resemble the ’12 Thunder. In both the ‘11 and ‘12 Finals the more experienced and desperate team won. Miami just happened to flip roles between the two years. I wouldn’t necessarily describe the Spurs as more desperate, but they are definitively older and more mature of a group with a shorter window of titles.

Both those Mavs and these Spurs share a decades-long dominance by a star big man, and two guards hungry for a title. I would describe Kidd and Terry of two years ago as having the qualities of “older guard wanting a title”, “fiery off the bench scorer”, “pick and roll monsters”, and “mental leader of an efficient midrange onslaught”. Parker and Ginobili match those qualities, mixed a little bit between the two but similar to Kidd and Terry in total. Leonard and Chandler don’t fit the comparison, but overall the fit is there for these teams.

For this series, the Spurs have the advantage down low. They have a strong coaching advantage. I hold both Lionel Hollins and Spo in similar esteem. Top 10 coaches, but not in Pop’s league. Even if the HEAT start the Finals strong, I believe in the Spurs ability to adjust and get back in it. Again, similar to how Carlisle outcoached Spo in the ’11 Finals.

The matchups are very even. Parker and Duncan should kill Chalmers and Bosh respectively. Wade should outclass Danny Green. I think Miami forces Splitter off the court with smaller packages, and wins that matchup. And I love Kawhi Leonard, but he can’t contain Lebron. He and Paul George might be the best defenders against Lebron, but LBJ is going to get going and be insanely productive again. If the Spurs win this series, it won’t be because Lebron shrinks this time. It will be for other reasons, such as support…similar to CLE-SAS in ’07.

The Spurs have the skills and personal to rotate people with all those shooters and bench guys. Ginobili should equalize Wade at this point when he comes off the bench. And while I am not sure the HEAT will be tired after their long series, the Spurs will benefit from being rested. This will help with Parker a little nicked up in the previous two series. Duncan and Ginobili have this rest and the accumulated rest from the regular season, and be good to go and play their biggest per game minute averages of the season.

The HEAT benefit strongly from having the home court in this series. In a normal series I love the underdog having game 6 at home because it gives them options to finish it off at home or have that opportunity to extend to a game seven. In the Finals 2-3-2 format, underdogs have their best option to win the Finals in 5. Because 6 and 7 are at home for the HEAT, the road for the Spurs to win a long series is limited. Still, I believe that if any team can ignore home-road dynamics, it is the Spurs. Going back to the Mavs-HEAT series two years ago, the big German closed it out in 6 games, at Miami.

So, that is my prediction, Spurs in 6, with Tony Parker as the MVP of the Finals. There will be sentiment for Duncan to get it but the only way the Spurs win this title is if Parker has a dominant 22 and 9 type of series, and he is their best player now. Spurs split at Miami, take 2 of 3 at home, and then win 6 in Miami, tough as that will be. If this goes seven, Miami wins. And if Miami takes both at home to start, Miami wins. The Spurs cover the possibilities in between, and could win in five, though they’d have to take both in Miami I think to do that. I believe it has only happened twice ever that the underdog wins all three at home so there is no counting on that. 

In any case, this will be a really entertaining series between some legendary players. We have 10 Hall of Famers competing in this one (yes, TMac and Bosh is going to get in, no matter how much I hate that) (I’m including Pop and Riley), and there should be some good drama.

No matter what else happens, I have nailed my best ever post season run. 13-1 so far, so the worst I can do is 13-2. So let me make one more prediction while I am feeling it a little: Neither of these teams gets back to the Finals in the next five years. Spurs will retire/dismantle at some point, and the HEAT will break up after next year. Early prediction for next year is Pacers-Thunder, but let’s wait before we get there. 

For now, let’s all get excited about some Gregg Popovich end of quarter interviews! Enjoy everyone. 

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 13-1 (In progress, San Antonio over Miami is the Final pick)

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

Hypocrisy, Stubborness, and the NBA Regular Season

Hypocrisy, stubbornness, and regular season meaninglessness. Those are my thoughts during this series. All four teams tie into these concepts. Here, let me explain. 

I see a lack of logical thinking in so many instances and examples. For example, the Rudy Gay trade. When it happened, most of the people I know and watch basketball with cheered. It gave Toronto a solid player to finally build around who could be unleashed and played at the small ball stretch four, where he belongs. The Grizzlies were a rough and tough team that just needed a 3 who could defend and shoot the long ball. Prince isn’t perfectly that, but he’s better than Rudy. More importantly, Pondexter is perfect for this role. Memphis would be smart to move Prince along and let Quincy play more. 

The thing that gets me is how so many basketball people lamented the trade. Magic, Shaq, Kenny, Wilbon, and so many more talking heads at Bristol said you couldn’t “win without the star” and they were “trading a dollar for 65 cents”. Normally that’s right, but the truth was Rudy wasn’t a star anymore. I watched Bill Simmons for weeks try to talk sense into his coworkers about how Rudy and his inefficient game being gone was actually good for the Grizzlies, especially when calculating in his salary savings and his horrendous shooting from 18 feet and out. They ignored him. But when it came to the playoffs and the Grizzlies got going and blasted their way into the Western Finals, they weren’t reversing course. You could tell several times they wanted no part of talking about this trade again because of how wrong they were. And I think Simmons was holding back from gloating. I know, the Grizzlies have exited already. But it wasn’t because they didn’t have Rudy Gay. He would have sunk them more. I am cringing from all the long terrible threes Leonard would have suckered him into.

If you will, please joing me in examining the Pacers and the logic inadequately applied to them this year. All season, they were derided because their bench is terrible, especially at the 1 and 5. But then we also hear that the bench matters far less in the playoffs, because the starters frequently play so many more minutes. So why are we surprised that the Pacers have again had a solid playoffs? Those starters have carried them. Has the bench let them down, and potentially cost them a win or two? Absolutely. But on the whole, Indiana has done well and still could win this series. Mainly because Paul George and Roy Hibbert aren’t playing 33 minutes. They are playing 43, so the inferior bench matters far less. And oh by the way? Those 5 Indy starters know each other really well. Of course, Granger being there would be nice and would let Lance “I think I’m Jamal Crawford” Stevenson not play so many important minutes. But overall, the logic remains true. 

Okay, I love basketball. But during the regular season, I don’t freak out about catching every game. I like watching, but I don’t count the stats or the wins until late in the year. I also don’t particularly care about home court or seedings to be honest. Ellis and LARRY SANDERS! had to be separated in the locker room during a playoff game. I think the Bucks were losing the first round regardless of the matchups. I didn’t really care about the Lakers record (cmon, they were at least getting into the playoffs), the Celtics record immediately following Rondo’s injury (it didn’t matter, the eye test said they couldn’t be as good in the long run), or especially the HEATs streak (statistical anomaly, and inherently meaningless). Would you rather win 20 straight games by 8 points per game, or 18 of 20 by 9.5 points per game? That should be an easy answer, yet I’ll bet most people get it wrong. If those are regular season games, the second scenario tells you more about your team and better indicates overall skill level. What the HEAT were in the regular season was impressive if all of their wins had come in a row or distributed how they were.

We put too much pressure on the regular season. Granger tried to come back too early, then pushed it. We don’t know if he had taken a long recovery whether he’d be playing now but it is possible. Roy Hibbert signed a big last offseason then had a “bad” regular season. People derided him and his new deal. Guess what? I would argue he didn’t have such a bad season. He produced about the same points per minute as he has for three years. He upped his blocks from 2 to 2.6 while playing less minutes per game. His PER was still a solid 17.35. But the biggest deal is he saved energy and minutes for the post season, where it matters. And he went from solid to dominant since they tipped it off with Atlanta in round one. The regular season was his warmup, and chance to adjust to playing with Paul George.

One could also say that about the Spurs and Duncan. Pop figured out some things that could work. They keep the ball movement/active shooter/Parker centric offense that has been so great for them 3 years running but used the regular season to figure out how to play Splitter and Duncan together while still doing all of that. Meanwhile, they let Manu and Diaw play fewer minutes and skip games frequently due to age and injuries, and Duncan played one of his most efficient seasons ever. The Spurs were derided for this, and fined by Stern and the NBA (probably more times than we know). But guess what? THEY WERE RIGHT! They are in the Finals. And they have all that accumulated rest from the year and these ten days of a break to prepare for the HEAT or Pacers coming up June 6^th. The Spurs have used the regular season as a test tube, and shook it enough times to make sure they knew what their end product would be.

One of the reasons I think the Spurs have a solid shot of beating either team in the Finals is because of another regular season casualty: Dwyane Wade. Wade is a top 5 all time shooting guard. His performance during the 06 Finals, aided by corrupt reffing or not, is an all time mark. But that guy is gone. This is a broken down, old, inconsistent player. The transformation of the HEAT from a two man offensive game plan with Bosh pick & roles and tough defense to a Lebron-centric offense with Bosh clearing the rim and 3 shooters on the arc has hidden how bad Wade really has become. This is all comparative of course: a “terrible” D Wade is still better than Bayless or Jason Terry. But he can’t do many things anymore, and many of the things he can do are produced randomly and without any consistency. Jacoby said on the BS Report the other day: “he looks like DWade for stretches and seems fine, but you look up in the 4^th quarter and he has 14 points on 6 of 17 shooting.” And Simmons makes the most astute comment: he attempts under 5 FTs a game now.  

The HEAT played Wade 35 minutes a game in the regular season through 69 games this year. He was efficient yes, but Wade didn’t create points as much as he many times received them. There is a big difference there. He played strong minutes during the aforementioned winning streak that inherently means nothing now. Ginobili, who is four years older than Wade but has played 5000 less minutes (roughly 29000 for Wade, 24500 for Ginobili) played 23 minutes a game over 60 games. That is a 1000 net minute difference this year alone. Wade is more important to his team, but not by that much. If the HEAT wanted to maximize this year and the next (we know Bron is out after that), then Wade should have been sitting far more and asked to do less. I don't know who that reflects on more: Riley, Spo, Wade himself, agents, marketing, the trainers, or some combinations of everyone. Likewise, money, pride, stubborness, or short sighted thinking could be most to blame. Wade hasn’t touched twenty points in a game for a while, and this is a player who AVERAGED 30 PPG only four years ago. Manu should be ready to go. While Wade is better than Manu, even now, the rest and prep may equalize them.

Maybe it won’t matter. The HEAT may very well still win the title this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised. But Lebron will have score 30, assist 8, and play 46 minutes minimum to do that. Or Wade will have to show something that he has been holding in reserve, and I just don’t see how he has that. He used it beating Charlotte and Orlando for a regular season game winning streak. That is something I just don't understand. 

2013 NBA Playoffs Round 3

The first few rounds are relatively easy: 1 vs 8 SHOULD be an simple call 99% of the time. The second round gets a little harder but normally you see something in round 1 that shows you something about each team, however small or large. The Spurs were going to beat the Dubs because Mark Jackson's team couldn't execute, especially late in games. The Bulls were too beat up to win. The Pacers were a more solid bunch than the Knicks' newly embraced ISO ugly offense. And the Thunder lost Westbrook.

But these Conference Finals have trimmed the excess and are only bringing the best to play. I am going to use this piece to logic myself to some conclusions. We will have to see if they make sense.

W2. Spurs versus W4. Grizzlies
This is extremely tough, and should be fantastic series. I am hoping for a long and healthy one, as the matchup has several juicy potential points. These teams are very different. The Spurs are efficient, quick, sabermetric, well rounded, have a deep bench, and have all the experience in the world. They have three stars who have done this year after year, and a young stud ready to make his name known.

The Grizz are what San Antonio used to be: Grit and Grind, slow it down, two big guys and a point guard, with an erratic but fiery backup guard off the bench. They even have the starting wing player no one likes (Tony Allen) similar to what Spurs had (Bruce Bowen).

Funny enough, both teams excel at long series, but for differing reasons. San Antonio makes adjustments so well. We saw it in the last round: the Spurs were lucky get a split in the first two games but then schemed around what Curry and Klay were doing and thoroughly dominated them over the next 4 games.

The Grizz love long series because of their Grit and Grind mentality. They wear you down, and by games 4-6 they have bruised you physically and struck mentally as well. See Clippers, Blake Griffin.

So how does one determine this series? Tony Parker and Marc Gasol are pretty much making the "best player in the series wins it" theory a jump ball. Home court isn't going to be crazy important here either. Pop is better than Hollins sure, but this isn't a Pop versus Vinny del Negro or Scottie Brooks type situation.

It came down to this: I think Parker dominates Conley more than any Memphis big can dominate a matchup with Splitter, who if healthy is going to be competent there. But more jmportantly, Manu is going to rock Bayless in this. I have zero trust in Bay less being consistent, especially defensively. Spurs win in 7, on the strength on their superior execution, bench play, and strength on the wings. I'll take Manu/Leonard/Green/Neal over Bayless/Prince/Allen.



E1. HEAT versus E3. Pacers

-There is a legit case to be made that the Pacers can do this. They match up well, with talent across the board. I trust Lance, George, and Hill to rotate through Wade and Lebron. David West and Roy Hibbert may literally eat Bosh for lunch.

But, the HEAT will play a stretch four enough to negate some of the inside strength of the Pacers, and the HEAT's bench will vastly outproduce Gerald Green, DJA, and Psycho T.

Sadly, HEAT in 6. Tyler Hansborough terrifies me. He's entering Kendrick Perkins area. But more than anything else, the Pacers' tendency for turnovers and not scoring for stretches makes this a win for Miami. Ugh, I feel dirty.



I guess I still have a HEAT over Spurs Finals, though begrudgingly. The Spurs could win that, but if they survive Memphis it will be with bumps and bruises. A lot would depend on health at that point, for Wade too.

The Most Successful Franchise in Sports Is...

I have wanted to write a column on my favorite franchise in sports for a long while now. I consider them the best team, the most accomplished, the one I respect, the one I would love to be responsible for. Their unparalleled success over the last 15 years (coincidentally my sports watching life) is something to behold. They have won a handful of titles and were close to several more.

I look at things in roughly three ways in terms of value in my favorite sports team: titles, sustained competitiveness, and statistical excellence. Markets, superstars, flashy play, Sportscenter ratings....these things don’t really matter to me like they do to many sports fans in this country. To me, in terms of rings, longevity, and sabermetric excellence, the supreme franchise is clear.....

The New England Spurs.  

Er, the San Antonio Patriots?

See, I get confused with these two teams. I mean, what’s the difference? Okay, one plays in the West, one in the East. One has 13 players on the team, the other 53. One team’s owner is well known, for the other the GM is much better known comparatively. Oh yeah, one plays basketball and the other team plays football.

But see, the fact of the matter is it is hard to draw a distinguishable line between the New England Patriots and San Antonio Spurs (got it right that time, nice). They look nearly identical to me.

Look at it this way: The Patriots system is said to be based on these principles (see article at end for source):

a. Self critical, perfectionist, militaristic approach

b. Emphasis on team, equality among players, and lack of individual ego

c. Strong work ethic, intelligence, and high level of focus and preparation for each individual game

d. Versatile players, able to play multiple positions

e. Multiple schemes intended to take advantage of their opponent’s weaknesses

Um, sound familiar San Antonio?

Let’s break it down in depth:

1. Both teams hired a somewhat misanthropic, angry, sarcastic, caustic, but brilliant coach in the late 90’s/early 00’s. Popovich and Belichick are similar in so many aspects it is scary. Both have names constantly misspelled. Both have been simultaneous coach/GMs. Both have family connections to military traditions that clearly influence their style and bearing. Bill and Pop both avoid media obligations like the plague, but in the time they are forced to give interviews, they can give some gems, many times without really trying. Both coaches are known for being defensive wizards that now lead offensive teams. More on that later.

2. Neither team location is a big market, but they are within one. Foxboro is not even close to what you would call a metropolitan center. Without the Pats, one would be hard pressed to find it on a map. I know, I grew up near there. But in the larger context, NE is one of the nation’s biggest sports nations. It has a unique attitude, a vast regional service network, and sports history both long term and lately. Similarly, San Antonio is not exactly a large market. But they love their Spurs, and the larger Texas area has a dozen well attended teams and regional pride. They likewise support success, and the state of Texas has 7 of the last 18 NBA titles, and many more conference titles and appearances. Speaking of that kind of success…

3. Both teams have won multiple titles, with the Pats’ titles being a little more concentrated than the Spurs, but the Spurs having more (‘02, ‘04, ‘05 for the Pats, ‘99, ‘03, ‘05, ‘07 for the Spurs). Both have been in the title game or the conference title game on many more occasions. And both teams started their run with a solo title with an unusual circumstance in the year leading up to it (lockout for the Spurs, 9-11 and Brady’s random emergence for the Pats) and then after a few more years ran off a truly dominant period before settling into where they are now. More on that at the end.

4. Both teams are riding impressive longevity streaks. The Spurs run of winning 50+ games is legendary (13 straight now, one of those was within a 66 game season, and it would be 15 if not for a 50 total game season where they were above the percentage needed for 50+ wins in a normal season). The Pats’ run of 10+ win seasons (10 and counting, 11 of the last 12, including a year Tom Brady didn’t play) is also fairly unworldly. They have had 12+ wins in 7 of the last 10, which is mind boggling. The teams’ winning percentage during the era of Duncan/Brady are .695 and .777 respectively. That makes Duncan the third highest winner active in the NBA. Number 1 and 2? Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, his teammates. Brady’s ridiculous .777 is 25 points higher than Staubach and 66 points higher than Montana, and Brady has far lapped them in total regular season wins. I mean, the guy directly ahead of Brady in career wins, Marino, has 93 losses. The guy behind Brady in wins, Tarkenton, has 109 losses. Brady, with roughly the same amount of wins (124), has only 39 losses. That’s insane. 39 losses…in 12 years. I have no words.

Speaking of Duncan and Brady…

5. Both teams have an unassuming superstar, though in different ways. Duncan was a first overall pick, but doesn’t act much like it. He is quiet, and no one seems him as a standout. But he is a top 10 player all time, one of the best winners ever, and probably the best player ever at his position (depending on what you call his position that is). His offensive efficiency is amazing to watch, especially statistically. We’ll get to stats later with the Spurs and Pats.

Brady himself is unassuming in that he was a 6th round pick. 200 people were thought to be better than him, and he was 4th on the Pats depth chart at his position for a year and a half. It took an injury to get him even on the field. Rather like it took David Robinson’s foot injury to give the Spurs the requisite pingpong balls to get Duncan. Is there some similarity in Bledsoe and Robinson needing the new guys to come in to give them a chance to get them a ring? I know Robinson still played WITH Duncan while Brady replaced Bledsoe, but the comparison and sequence of events still works.

Both guys also overcame being thought of as system guys, attributing their first major wins to someone else (Robinson/lockout, Pats defense/tuck rule). While both arguments have merit, clearly these guys were big parts of those wins and the start to the teams’ prolonged success.

Tim and Tom have some funny comparable quirks too, the names for one. Forgetting even the one letter difference, both never go by their full names, Timothy and Thomas. Funny enough, both have teammates call them by something else entirely, Timmy and Tommy. They wear flipped numbers, 21 and 12. I could go on and use the word "fundamental", but I won’t.

6. Part of the reason I enjoy following both the Spurs and Pats is that they have a talent with money, and free agents. I would immediately hire either to run my personal finances. They are brilliant, principled, and great talent evaluators. You don’t hear about their cap problems, and if anything you consistently hear about their stars taking less money to stay and allow the team to be competitive. Duncan and Brady both did it recently. They make so few mistakes with contracts (Richard Jefferson and Roosevelt Covlin are probably the biggest, and the teams got out of both of those). They pay their handful of stars, never pay people over 30, and pull random people off of the scrap heap who do a specific thing well (Danny Green, Danny Woodhead, Tiago Splitter, Sebastian Volmer, Matt Bonner, Teddy Bruschi) and pay them little to nothing to do it. And guys that leave for “greener pastures” (Deion Branch, Stephen Jackson), end up coming back, begging to be let back in. Both teams also took players whose talent was undeniable, but whose chemistry just didn’t fit and with whom the financial picture wasn’t right, and sent them packing (Luis Scola, Richard Seymour). It is amazing as well how both teams just plug and play so many guys for single nights or weeks at a time. Need Gary Neal to hit 3s for a week? Go for it. Donte Stallworth needed for a 60 yard touchdown? Do it. Parker/Brady hurt? George Hill and Matt Cassel can do a veritable imitation.

7. There is a similarity between the teams in that both the Spurs and Pats transitioned. Both won titles with defensive first. This included some rough tactics at time. Both employed players not many other teams particularly liked, like Rodney Harrison, and Bruce Bowen as examples. The Spurs embraced the Hack-A-Shaq, didn’t mind grinding it out, fouling before an inbounds pass, and finding any edge to win. Likewise to the rule changes in the NBA following the Spurs reign, the Pats also incurred the attention of the league office. They held and slammed their way to 3 titles in 4 years. A particularly tough playoff game versus the Colts where Pats’ DBs held Harrison and Wayne so badly they weren’t moving 3 seconds into the play caused the NFL to change those rules. Both teams took advantage of their defensive eras and abilities, and won titles out of it, unapologetically. There was also that Spygate thing. I mean, things happen, right?

8. Both teams also saw a new era dawning. For the Pats, it was the changing defense rules mixed with Brady’s knee injury in 2008. For the Spurs, Bowen’s retirement and Duncan’s own knee issues gave them two straight early round losses in the playoffs.

Instead of accepting the changes quietly and giving up on the hope of future successes, they innovated. Pop and Bill observed the evolving rules and culture and changed their rosters accordingly. Duncan gave way to Ginobili and Parker, taking advantage of the handcheck rules and fouling principles. Instead of winning with physicality, Pop recentered his offense AND defense on the principles of ball movement and precision. This team went from winning with David Robinson and Rasho Nesterovich at center to playing Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw there.

Brady remained the Pats centerpiece, but first Moss and then Welker became their way to exploit the new league. Ginobili and Moss were these teams’ way of being successful in the 06-09 years. They used a unique player with a strange style that was devastatingly effective. Welker and Parker show how now in big tough sports the Spurs and Pats are acknowledging that little fast guys with precision play are the valuable and exploitable commodity. And both teams have another guy coming up (Leonard and Gronk) that they think will be the next unstoppable thing, an evolution of multiple abilities. And I think it will work out for both teams there, with Gronk already pretty much having proven it.

9. The original thing that inspired this column was their efficiency and advanced metrics. I love their offenses just a little too much. I stare at FootballOutsiders for hours on end. I marveled at all the advanced metrics of the 2011-2012 Spurs during their second half run and first ten games of the playoffs.

The ’12 Pats finished at 30.8% DVOA offensive efficiency last year. The next highest were Denver and Green Bay, at 22.1% and 19.5%. It wasn’t close. In fact, the 2012 Pats had one of top ten ever recorded. The top two ever? The ’07 Pats at 43.5% and ’10 Pats with 42.2%. Both were record setting seasons by regular stats too if that is more your thing, setting the overall points record with 589. 

The Spurs rock the plus/minus and assist rates, but it is really their 3 point shooting which is amazing. They don’t have rock stars shooting the three (Danny Green everyone!), but make it work. In ‘11-’12, they lapped the field in 3s (552 to next highest 524 and 514) and 3% (.393 to next nearest .359 and .358). They also led in total buckets, strangely a stat not enough people look at, especially impressive while leading the league in overall shooting percentage (.478). That’s while being near the league stragglers in minutes played (IE, among the fewest overtimes thus less opportunities to score). Oh, and they were third lowest in turnovers. The efficiency is off the charts.

You can go back years to find more and more examples, but these numbers, especially lately, make the analytical part of my brain whirl. These teams are machines, just ruthless automatons that many people hate to watch. I have always been fascinated, and cannot look away. Both teams epitomize the concept of PRODUCTION.

10. Point ten, my final one, is the most interesting but most disturbing similarity to me. Both teams have produced better and better regular seasons, but worse post seasons as time has gone on. It may be due to talent disparity, the offensive style not working as well as the defensive one in the playoffs, the coaches and stars getting older, or just luck. However, these two teams, as successful as they are, are getting knocked out in the second or third rounds and not winning titles. I am inclined to say at least one of these teams will win another title (with the Pats window a hair longer than the Spurs, but the Spurs being a better lock THIS year) before they are done. I would put the over under of combined conference title appearances from here on out for the Spurs and Pats at 2.5 and gladly pound the over.

So despite these teams I love coming to the end of their eras sooner rather than later, I will still watch with hope and support. They are impressive. We should cherish and respect their accomplishments, even if you don’t like them (and believe me, I hated the Spurs for a long time). We will look back on them as impactful teams of this era. And Brady/Duncan are too close to 1 more title that firmly plants them in immortality to let up now. I am not betting against Duncan, Brady, Pop, or Bill for as long as they continue to walk onto their respective fields of contest. No way, I’m not dumb. They’ve only been proving people wrong for a combined 30 years.

MIKE BLISS

PS. For more reading, I highly suggest these two sites on these two teams’ strategy and style:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Patriots_strategy

http://hoops-nation.com/community/topic/62910-an-introduction-to-the-spur%E2%80%99s-offence/

2012 NBA Redraft Odyssey: MB vs VP

VP - As the start of a new NBA season arrives in full force, Bliss and I have returned to bring you this year’s Redraft column. Now if you need a refresher on what we’re talking about, this column will be a Simmons-style trade value column, except we will be “redrafting” the top 60 current NBA players, based on the players’ current levels and their potentials, to create 30 tandems to create our own “bizarro NBA.” Now, this is going to be a geography-independent (as you’ll see once you see the “teams” that are doing the drafting) and a completely biased endeavor, but we’re hoping to alleviate that last issue with our differing viewpoints and some statistical grounding.

MB - Let’s draft!


THE MAIN EVENT
MB - The Redraft Rule Book:
1.      Any current NBA player is eligible. They must have either played last year or
clearly be playing this coming year.
2.      Their current salary doesn’t matter. All the 1st round players would get max
level contracts under a similar CBA to what is in place now (say 14-17 million
based on slot). 2nd round players would get a star level contract not quite at the
first round level (9-13 million based on slot). The old contracts wouldn’t matter.
Technically, you could consider their motivation level based on past income, but
for the purposes of this column, we will not consider this factor much.
3.      Assume you are getting the player for the next 5 years. The lesson of this is, of
course, that the age (and games logged) of the player matters.
4.      We won’t count minor injuries, especially in the scope of 5 years. Kevin Love’s
hand injury won’t be a big consideration, though Dirk’s knee might be. Amare’s   knee is in no way minor.
5.      We will not considering offensive systems or anything like that. Assume that the
coaches who will work with these teams are smart enough to cater to the two starters that they immediately receive. Vinny Del Negro isn’t involved at all.

VP - For those of you keeping track at home, let’s get to the most glaring missed calls from last year first - both Bliss and I passed on LeBron in the top 5 for the Redraft/Value column and predicted a Thunder over Bulls finals matchup. Ouch. In our defense, Rose got hurt, but in all honesty, LBJ was probably not going to be stopped from grabbing his first ring this past season. Our Rose/Durant/Dwight/Deron picks are still pretty defensible despite the injuries, but Bliss reached with Melo and I definitely reached with Amare (can you tell that we’ve both lived in NY?). Chris Paul made us pay for doubting him by proving his worth in the short-term, although we were oddly prescient with our LeBron/Ray Allen pairing, so I’d say that’s a wash (whistles while changing the topic, Mike is death staring me now). Now without further ado, let’s start this year’s redraft odyssey!



1. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Kevin Durant.
MB - No argument. Perhaps the best talent, best character, and best “asset” a franchise can have right now. 23 years old. And I totally thought of the team name.

2. MB - Akron Integrity select LeBron James. I hate it, but the talent is there and he is in his prime. Hard to argue against it. And the second best team name I thought of.
VP - It’s the right pick, but I can still hate it. I’m just glad I didn’t have to make it.

3. VP -  Bangor Moose take Dwight Howard.
MB - Ouch, ouch, ouch. Sorry, my back started hurting all of a sudden.
VP - The back injury worries me too, but it’s hard not to take the league’s best center at this spot.

4. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Kevin Love.
VP - Great rebounder + versatile scorer + deft passer = bona fide franchise cornerstone.

5. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Russell Westbrook
MB - RW has more value without Durant, so this is the right place for him.
VP - Finally free to be the alpha dog he is.

6. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Rajon Rondo.
Honestly, I would have taken him over Westbrook. Rondo has proven to be a strong team leader, raise his game in the playoffs and run a variety of team styles. Oh, and Rondo would look awesome in like Black, grey, and Red highlights. That kind of uniform.
VP - Is that an alternate jersey you made in 2K?
MB - Um, no.....okay maybe.
VP - Team name was mine though.
MB - Credit due, and given.

7. VP - Montana Roam take Deron Williams.
MB - Montana will make sense later readers. And for Deron, I have always loved him and think this is the correct place for him. The last two years have been a little troubling, but overall he might be highest rated PG if you added values across all categories.

8. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Kyrie Irving. Draws your eye on every single play. Intangibles and tangibles are off the charts. Love him so much. And I want it on record VP wanted to kill me after this pick. That’s a good sign you are doing something right.  
VP - Uncle Drew will be taking all these youngbloods, with their rappity-hippity-hop and flashy shoes, to school for years to come.

9. VP - Kansas City BBQ take DeMarcus Cousins.
MB - Editorial note, this was the name for the previous team, but once VP uttered the horrible words “Demarcus Cousins”, I knew BBQ needed to be reassigned.
VP - His talent level, if harnessed by the right coach, could make his team monstrous.

10. MB - Springfield Loggers take Derrick Rose.
MB - Injury aside, he is talented and has the drive. Adrian Peterson was ripping off 60 yard TD runs, 8 months after an ACL tear. Rose will be balling hard by February and for years to come.
VP - Editorial note: MB originally picked “Derek” Rose. Here is our unedited gchat exchange:

“VP: uh, Derek?
MB: I can’t spell.
VP: No, I think that was a Freudian slip. You miss the Captain.
MB: Oh shove off.”

11. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Blake Griffin.
MB - Don’t like the low post game, but the excitement level is undeniable. He will print tickets. And totally my team name.

12. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Lamarcus Aldridge.
MB - The best possible name for a team, amuses me incredibly. Geeking out a little too much.
VP - Safe cornerstone to build around.

13. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Andrew Bynum.
VP - Nothing ominous about that being pick #13 at all.
MB - Not at all. Also, what happens when the Offense’s Offensive Production is Offensive? Sorry to go on offense with this commentary, but the Offense made that offense more likely.

14. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Marc Gasol.
MB - More consistent, less liable for injury than Bynum. Also, currently playing. I would have taken him over Bynum

15. VP - Savannah Long Grass take CP3.
VP - Immediate title window, then tanking for a number 1 pick.
MB - Yup and yup. Don’t know what else to say. That knee is giving. Just is.

16. MB - Montpelier Saps take Josh Smith.
MB - 2nd banana, but still hasn’t hit his prime and made strides last year.

17. VP - Hartford Whalers take Rudy Gay.
MB - As talented as Durant perhaps, but just doesn’t care every other game. I’ll believe it when I see it. The team is so perhaps he would play better closer to home.

18. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters select James Harden.
MB - More than talented enough for this. But he can’t be the lead guy. I’ll match him with someone in the next round that can be the alpha guy. If that makes sense.

19. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Ricky Rubio.
VP - It was time to reach and make a bit of a crowd-pleasing move. You’re welcome ladies.
MB - Screw you, a**hole. That was my pick. Oh, sorry. Calmer now.

20. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Carmelo Anthony.
MB - See how it feels? Huh?! See how it feels VP??? Okay, seriously though, too much talent to ignore. Will sell tickets and score a ton of points. Still has a chance to mature.
VP - Mike, you know I hated him coming to the Knicks from day one. I would never pick him to be the foundation of my franchise. And as a bitter Knicks fan, I can confidently say that he will never mature.
MB - Don’t be repetitive VP. “Bitter” is an unnecessary modifier to “Knicks fan”. Also, Carmelo would love Albuquerque, right?

21. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Anthony Davis. Fire up the hype machine folks - the Brow is coming back to town!
MB - Fundamentally he needs a lot of work. As a franchise builder, I have no problem with it. I think he becomes more Tyson Chandler than Blake Griffin. That isn’t all a bad thing however.

22. MB - NH Freedom take Greg Monroe. Consistent, would fit well in New Hampshire, very reliable.

23. VP - Delaware Knights take DWade.
MB - I’ll wait to comment until I see his teammate. Not necessarily upset about this.

24. MB - Topeka Twisters take Al Horford. 20-10, 50%, no fuss. Sign me up.

25. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Al Jefferson.
MB - See above. Though I firmly think Horford has a higher ceiling. Won two championships in college. Consistent in the playoffs. Jefferson has neither.

26. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take John Wall. Don’t love him but he was a number 1 pick two years ago and has played well. This will be a determining year for him.
VP - Yeah, he fell way too far. Probably a good place for him.

27. VP - Montreal Illuminati takes Tony Parker. I have a near-MVP argument for him actually (shameless plug: http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-2013-nba-season-predictions-mb-vs.html)
MB - Parker is simply a leader and a winner. Probably would quietly seethe about being selected behind Wall actually, but take it out in a ridiculously efficient season.

28. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Pau Gasol. Would be fine as the primary guy.
VP - If this was 3 years ago.

29. VP - Durham Basilisks take Kobe Bryant. Being drafted after Pau will fuel him.
MB - Taking credit for this team name too. Mamba and Duke references.

30. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Andre Iguodala. Defense, leadership, intangibles. And on the flip...
VP - Chief Blocka is a great pick, but he needs an alpha-dog scorer to flourish.

31. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Dirk Nowitzki to partner Iggy. The Pride will be coached by Don Nelson.
VP - A resounding yes. This team would be so much fun to watch.

32. VP - Durham Basilisks take Chris Bosh to pair with Kobe Bryant. They will be coached by Coach K and will hope to recapture some Team USA magic.
MB - Kobe will only attempt to kill Bosh a few times. Probably a good pairing actually.

33. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Ty Lawson to pair with Pau Gasol. They will be coached by Mike D’Antoni and score 120 points a game.

34. VP - Montreal Illuminati take Serge Ibaka to pair with Tony Parker. They will be coached by Gregg Popovich, of course.

35. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take Danny Granger to pair with John Wall. They will be coached by Tony Kornheiser.

36. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Steph Curry to pair with Al Jefferson. They will be coached by Kevin McHale and will try to see if Kobe will sell them some ankle insurance (he will not).

37. MB - Topeka Twisters take Kyle Lowry to pair with Al Horford. They will be coached by Scotty Brooks. Seems about right in terms of temperaments for those players. This team will be a plus team in rebounding and field goal percentage.

38. VP - Delaware Knights take Tyson Chandler to go with DWade. They will be coached by Rick Carlisle on their way to either a ring or a trip to the DL.
MB - Maybe more than any other team, this one will be looking for a young star in the next round to become THE guy in two years. Paul George like. Well, maybe not him exactly because…

39. MB - NH Freedom take Paul George to go with Greg Monroe. They will be coached by Larry Bird. Seems right.

40. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Steve Nash to go with Anthony Davis. They will be coached by...oh screw it Steve Nash would be the coach anyways.
MB - I don’t hate it: just don’t think it works for the future. And I claim credit for that coach.

41. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Joakim Noah to pair with Carmelo Anthony. They will be coached by Mike Brown.
VP - (Carmelo screams)
MB - Muhuhuhuhahaha.

42. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Klay Thompson to pair with Ricky Rubio. They will be coached by Jason Kidd.
MB – Nice! Like New Jersey after the Vince Carter trade. That didn’t turn out well though.

43. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters selects Kevin Garnett to pair with James Harden. They will be coached by Derek Fisher. Mainly because KG is too hard for most people to handle and Harden should probably be allowed to talk to himself most of the time.

44. VP - Hartford Whalers take Roy Hibbert to pair with Rudy Gay. They will be coached by Hubie Brown.
MB – Absolutely. And a good pairing in terms of usage. Strong defensive team.

45. MB - Montpelier Saps take Brandon Jennings to pair with Josh Smith. They will be coached by Avery Johnson. The crazy team who will force a ton of turnovers, and also commit a ton of turnovers.

46. VP - Savannah Long Grass take Marcin Gortat to pair with CP3. They will be coached by Alvin Gentry.
MB - Just run all the sets they had for Nash and Gortat. Which, you know, wasn’t incredible but was decent.

47. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Eric Gordon to pair with Marc Gasol. They will be coached by Phoenix’s knee doctor.

48. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Jrue Holiday to pair with Andrew Bynum. They will be coached by Doug Collins. Real life, meet bizarro NBA. Bizarro NBA, meet real life.

49. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Joe Johnson to pair with Lamarcus Aldridge. They will be coached by Ernie Johnson. Mainly due to temperament.

50. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Monta Ellis to pair with Blake Griffin. They will be coached by Larry Brown, who will quit midseason.

51. MB - Springfield Loggers take Jonas Valanciunas to pair with Derrick Rose. They will be coached by Michael Wilbon, because of the Chicago connections.

52. VP - Kansas City BBQ take Danilo Gallinari to pair with Demarcus Cousins.
MB - They will be coached by a translator. Or something, I don’t know.

53. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Paul Millsap to go with Kyrie Irving. They will be coached by Kenny the Jet Smith. Just a solid team, guys I think Alaska would love having. Need a shooting guard to add to this, and would be awesome.

54. VP - Montana Roam take Brook Lopez to go with Deron Williams. They will be coached by Jerry Sloan, of course, who already lives in Montana. Deron screams.
MB - I claim credit for that coach selection, there is the Montana connection everyone. It is effing perfect. Gerald Wallace ironically is a great fit for this team coming back around.

55. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to pair with Rajon Rondo. They will be coached by Doc Rivers. I would love to get Kevin Martin or David Lee coming back with this team if we went to three rounds. Or Pierce of course.

56. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Andrew Bogut to pair with Russell Westbrook. They will be coached by Tom Thibodeau.
MB - What a nightmare to defend Westbrook, what a bigger nightmare to try to score on them at all. Add like Thabo, Gerald Wallace, Reggie Evans and this is a monster team.

57. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Mike Conley to go with Kevin Love. They will be coached by Rick Adelman. That clearly worked out for Love last season, so why change a good thing up?

58. VP - Bangor Moose takes Goran Dragic to pair with Dwight Howard. They will be coached by Shaq, of course.
MB - No complaints. Add a couple of shooters, basically the 2008-2009 Magic all over again. That isn’t a bad thing, they did go to the Finals.
VP - Exactly. This could just as easily have been Brandon Knight (who would’ve been perfect with Kevin Love), but I think Goran’s scoring is a better match.

59. MB - Akron Integrity take Andrea Bargnani to pair with Lebron James. They will be coached by Dan Gilbert. Getting a little silly, but Lebron should have to fight with everyone in his organization, on the court and off it. And someone like Bradley Beal coming around again in the third round, that works out really well for this team.

60. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Evan Turner to pair with Kevin Durant. They will be coached by Phil Jackson.
MB – Love it and totally agree. Kind of a Jordan/Pippen like division of responsibilities on this team (ie one scorer who dominates the ball and the other guy is second but more cleans up on defense, rebounds well, and facilitates from a 2-4 position). Let’s project just one more pick. Who would it be?
VP - Probably Duncan. Good right now and room to grow. Duncan can be like David Robinson going forward.
MB - Was thinking Pierce or Knight, but that works. Might be my team to beat considering that third round pick. The Parker/Ibaka/Pop team would be really good too though. They could add Varejao pretty easily in the middle of the third, that would be a dangerous group.

 

MB – Okay everyone, thanks for tagging along with the VP and myself on this redraft odyssey. We had a lot of fun, and appreciate you hanging with us. Have a great year. Even if, you know, your favorite player is traded two nights before the season starts.


-Mike Bliss and Vishal Patel