2013-2014 NBA Season Predictions

I am really excited for the NBA season.

Don’t get me wrong, I am pretty much always into basketball. I love fantasy hoops: I consider it the best fantasy sport because it is longer than football, but retains the stat focus of baseball without being so insufferably long. Basketball itself is the most personal of sports, easily accessible to the common folk, affordable to go to in person, and decently good with advanced stats. So I love it very much.

But what is surprising is that I am even thinking about it on October 25th. Normally even though I love basketball, pro football is keeping me occupied. Even though I am not the biggest fan of college football, I probably have watched more of that in November the last few years than hoops. I don’t get into hoops fully until the turn of the new year (those Christmas games are my turnover point).But for this season I am locked in already, and cannot wait until tip off. I have drafts on Monday and am pumped. So, let’s do some predictions!

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 8. Wolves          

2. Thunder over 7. Mavs         

6. Grizz over 3. Clippers         

4. Dubs over 5. Rockets         

1. Spurs over 4. Dubs             

2. Thunder over 6. Grizz         

1. Spurs over 2. Thunder, -Leonard makes the LEAP and shuts down Durant. 

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:  

1. Bulls over 8. Pistons           

2. HEAT over 7. Wizards       

3. Pacers over 6. Cavs             

4. Nets over 5. Knicks                        

1. Bulls over 4. Nets               

3. Pacers over 2. HEAT          

3. Pacers over 1. Bulls, -If Thibs manages his minutes, he can win this. So the Pacers win. 

NBA Finals: Spurs over Pacers in 5

-Leonard dominates, limiting Paul George. Parker will be awesome as well, Duncan only has to play Hibbert to a stalemate. The Spurs benefit from the new Finals format (Finally a 2-2-1-1-1). Duncan and probably Pop walk off into the sunset. Ginobili limps off. Pacers are disappointed, but will be viable for the next half decade as it is clear Paul George is a dominant player. 

All NBA Teams:

1. CP3, Harden, Lebron, Durant, Dwight

2. Parker, Rose, Paul George, Love, Marc Gasol

3. Rubio, Curry, Melo, Blake, Dirk

D. Avery Bradley, Tony Allen, Paul George, Lebron, Ibaka

R. Oladipo, McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Zeller, Olynyk

20 Proclamations and Predictions:

1. Bulls will lead the league in wins, just slightly over the Spurs. And everyone will marvel at the two of them doing so. The HEAT are declining, and the Thunder won’t be at full strength for a while, so this was actually easy. The Bulls continue to grind out wins, costing them health in the playoffs.

2. The Pacers’ bench makes the difference in the Eastern Finals, as the big difference from what happened last year. The math on the previous round versus the HEAT was pretty easily actually: Wade/Allen are declining, and Shane Battier probably goes off a cliff. Paul George got better, and they get contributions from Granger and Luis Scola when they didn’t before. So, go Pacers, go!

3. Pau Gasol has a really efficient and productive year, finally in an offensive system with him at center than features his ability to pass, be creative near the rim, and hit longer jumpers. Just no 3s Pau, please.  

4. Kevin Love leads the league in boards, and has over 4 offensive rebounds a game. Rubio leads it in assists, as a combination of minutes/opportunities/game flow. Heck, he’ll lead it in steals as well (that’s not as out there, look at the numbers).

5. Wade finally regresses to a point where we cannot ignore it and Bosh is CLEARLY their second best player, without argument. 

6. Victor Oladipo or Kelly Olynyk wins the Rookie of the Year. Probably VO, but Olynyk could have one weird statline. 

7. The Lakers hit a ton of threes. Not only do they now have time with D’Antoni and Nash to run this thing, but ANYONE shooting over Metta is better, so Nick Young and Xavier Henry fill it up, even if it isn’t crazy efficient. Oh, but the Lakers divebomb and win 30 games because their defensive finishes dead last. You heard me. Nash/Kobe on one leg/Nick Young/person X at PF/old Pau. Holy crap are people going to score on them.

8. The Nets look good but not elite all year, and never really turn it on in the playoffs. However, it is injuries not to “injury prone” Brook Lopez or “old” Pierce and Garnett that do them in, but Deron Williams.

9. Dirk has a career capping season, dropping something like 23.5 PPG, 8 RPG on a 50-40-90 shooting season and the Mavs are a really efficient offensive team behind Jose Calderon.

10. Durant wins the MVP due to voter fatigue, a slightly better record than the HEAT, and his “stepping up when Westbrook was gone”. Lebron deserves it by all stats, but Durant will get it.

11. Serge Ibaka wins Defensive Player of the Year, not just for the blocks, but some increased positional defense and time at center.

12. Rick Adelman wins Coach of the Year, even though we already knew he was great.

13. The Wizards are good, watchable, and give someone a scare in the first round.

14. The Cavs look good on paper, but overall crash due to injuries and ill fits. This team looks drastically different 12 months from now.

15. None of us will know what to do with Andre Drummond. He is a combination of young Shaq/Andries Biedrins/Javale McGee/Andre Blatche/DeMarcus Cousins. For those wondering if that is a compliment or insult….yes.

16. Sixth Man of the Year is a somewhat underwhelming race, but Reggie Jackson gets it because he gets a lot of counting stats while Westbrook is gone.

17. There will be multiple trades in the middle of the season, much more exciting than last year. These will heavily include the Blazers and Hawk among others, because the pieces for both those teams are just so tradable.

18. The Knicks kind of fall apart, and Melo definitively leaves. Next year they win 20 games behind a core of Felton/Iman/JR Smith/Bargnani/Tyson as four of those guys are really declining by then.

19. Asik is traded to the Pelicans as their season crashes due to problems at the swing and defense by Ryan Anderson. Anderson going to Houston makes the Rockets fun to watch and makes Harden excel. Asik lets Anthony Davis dominate at the 4.

20. Harden finishes out of the top 5 in real life MVP votes, but is the number 1 fantasy player with one of the more balanced efficiency/usage combinations in recent history. I am thinking a 24.5/5.5/8/45-40-88 with 2 steals, lower TOs, and a ton of FT makes at a scarce position.

Happy NBA Season everyone!

2013 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

So here we are, Spurs versus the HEAT. For the third year in a row I am faced with trying to build a case against Lebron winning a ring (yes, I am aware of the suggestion bias in that previous sentence).  In my Mavericks pick two years ago I was dead on: the HEAT hadn’t found themselves yet, the Mavs were on a special roll, there was history from ‘06, and Lebron was still shrinking in big games at that point. So I got the prediction right, and felt pretty good about myself.

Last year I picked the Thunder in an equally logical and emotional pick. I loved Durant but especially the Westbrook matchup on Chalmers and Cole. I underrated the newness of the Thunder to the limelight, Lebron’s true ascension to clutch status (which I should have seen coming from the Boston debacle in game six of the previous series), and the lingering effects of Ron Artest’s elbow on James Harden’s head (I couldn’t bring myself to write the pun that would be “Peace’s elbow to Harden’s head”). I don’t hate that Thunder pick in retrospect, but clearly the HEAT should have been the favorites in my mind.

So I come to Spurs-HEAT. In the course of reading some articles for work this week, I came across an interesting comparison with this coming series. “Learning and Organizational Effectiveness” by Nicholas Andreadis posited two definitions for effectiveness. The first was basically “the accomplishment of missions or achievement of objectives”. The second, perhaps not meant to be opposing to the first, is “acquiring of competencies, development, and self knowledge”. This second principle is based around the concept that true success isn’t measured by accomplishing a result but having the expectation that success is predictable. Because the system is so competent, achievement is the most logical result and even expected.

I immediately associated the HEAT with the first theory. They won a title, and made three straight Finals appearances. They are 10-1 in playoff series under Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Those results are indisputably impressive no matter the other circumstances, and deserve praise and mention in the history books. But that’s the extent of what I see. They achieved results, but the team isn’t its most effective. It has gone stretches without an identity, lucked into its now signature offense because Bosh got hurt last year and they improvised on the fly while in the playoffs, and had challenges from teams (Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Boston) that it really shouldn’t have been challenged by. They have the talent, and the results, but what I think most of us are disappointed by is the lack of efficiency during that time in between.

The Spurs on the other hand have that organizational efficiency delineated in the second definition. The way the system is set up “creates predictable results, if not expected”. About three guys on the team can dunk, their three best players are 101 years old combined, multiple team members are without ACLs, and they are not exciting to the casual fan. But Pop is the best at making adjustments, the culture of the club is outstanding, and the system is well oiled, fine tuned, and adjustable. Their system works so well it is a surprise when they don’t success, like last year to the Thunder. Someone has to beat them, they don’t lose to others.

Oh, and I also wrote this ridiculous 2450 word piece on the Spurs' success only 3 months ago. It now seems pretty brilliant if I am being honest.

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

Lebron’s first Finals appearance, seemingly lost to time, was the embarrassment against the Spurs six years ago. I feel like that Finals will be forgotten either way this one goes. If Lebron wins 5 titles, people won’t care about that isolated incident. If he loses in the Finals from here out, that one series won’t be harped on as much as the Mavs series or whatever happens this year. We don’t talk about Kobe losing the ’04 Finals to the Pistons for example, just as we don't talk about any individual Super Bowl loss by the Buffalo Bills. 

However, that Finals, suspiciously underpublicized and buried by the NBA, is now very relevant. At that point at least, Pop had Lebron’s number. Sure, the Cavs at that time were really limited….but news flash, so are the HEAT now. Wade and Bosh aren’t exactly dominating and are probably overpaid, slightly over the hill minor stars now rather than superstars. Lebron’s brilliance puts them here, though he is undeniably more developed than he was six years ago. Of course, so are Parker and Pop.

When I started codify my thoughts on this series, I withdrew from the individual matchup and gazed back at the last two years. As I did so, I realized the case for the Spurs was made for me. The ’13 Spurs recall the ‘11 Mavs much more than they resemble the ’12 Thunder. In both the ‘11 and ‘12 Finals the more experienced and desperate team won. Miami just happened to flip roles between the two years. I wouldn’t necessarily describe the Spurs as more desperate, but they are definitively older and more mature of a group with a shorter window of titles.

Both those Mavs and these Spurs share a decades-long dominance by a star big man, and two guards hungry for a title. I would describe Kidd and Terry of two years ago as having the qualities of “older guard wanting a title”, “fiery off the bench scorer”, “pick and roll monsters”, and “mental leader of an efficient midrange onslaught”. Parker and Ginobili match those qualities, mixed a little bit between the two but similar to Kidd and Terry in total. Leonard and Chandler don’t fit the comparison, but overall the fit is there for these teams.

For this series, the Spurs have the advantage down low. They have a strong coaching advantage. I hold both Lionel Hollins and Spo in similar esteem. Top 10 coaches, but not in Pop’s league. Even if the HEAT start the Finals strong, I believe in the Spurs ability to adjust and get back in it. Again, similar to how Carlisle outcoached Spo in the ’11 Finals.

The matchups are very even. Parker and Duncan should kill Chalmers and Bosh respectively. Wade should outclass Danny Green. I think Miami forces Splitter off the court with smaller packages, and wins that matchup. And I love Kawhi Leonard, but he can’t contain Lebron. He and Paul George might be the best defenders against Lebron, but LBJ is going to get going and be insanely productive again. If the Spurs win this series, it won’t be because Lebron shrinks this time. It will be for other reasons, such as support…similar to CLE-SAS in ’07.

The Spurs have the skills and personal to rotate people with all those shooters and bench guys. Ginobili should equalize Wade at this point when he comes off the bench. And while I am not sure the HEAT will be tired after their long series, the Spurs will benefit from being rested. This will help with Parker a little nicked up in the previous two series. Duncan and Ginobili have this rest and the accumulated rest from the regular season, and be good to go and play their biggest per game minute averages of the season.

The HEAT benefit strongly from having the home court in this series. In a normal series I love the underdog having game 6 at home because it gives them options to finish it off at home or have that opportunity to extend to a game seven. In the Finals 2-3-2 format, underdogs have their best option to win the Finals in 5. Because 6 and 7 are at home for the HEAT, the road for the Spurs to win a long series is limited. Still, I believe that if any team can ignore home-road dynamics, it is the Spurs. Going back to the Mavs-HEAT series two years ago, the big German closed it out in 6 games, at Miami.

So, that is my prediction, Spurs in 6, with Tony Parker as the MVP of the Finals. There will be sentiment for Duncan to get it but the only way the Spurs win this title is if Parker has a dominant 22 and 9 type of series, and he is their best player now. Spurs split at Miami, take 2 of 3 at home, and then win 6 in Miami, tough as that will be. If this goes seven, Miami wins. And if Miami takes both at home to start, Miami wins. The Spurs cover the possibilities in between, and could win in five, though they’d have to take both in Miami I think to do that. I believe it has only happened twice ever that the underdog wins all three at home so there is no counting on that. 

In any case, this will be a really entertaining series between some legendary players. We have 10 Hall of Famers competing in this one (yes, TMac and Bosh is going to get in, no matter how much I hate that) (I’m including Pop and Riley), and there should be some good drama.

No matter what else happens, I have nailed my best ever post season run. 13-1 so far, so the worst I can do is 13-2. So let me make one more prediction while I am feeling it a little: Neither of these teams gets back to the Finals in the next five years. Spurs will retire/dismantle at some point, and the HEAT will break up after next year. Early prediction for next year is Pacers-Thunder, but let’s wait before we get there. 

For now, let’s all get excited about some Gregg Popovich end of quarter interviews! Enjoy everyone. 

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 13-1 (In progress, San Antonio over Miami is the Final pick)

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

Hypocrisy, Stubborness, and the NBA Regular Season

Hypocrisy, stubbornness, and regular season meaninglessness. Those are my thoughts during this series. All four teams tie into these concepts. Here, let me explain. 

I see a lack of logical thinking in so many instances and examples. For example, the Rudy Gay trade. When it happened, most of the people I know and watch basketball with cheered. It gave Toronto a solid player to finally build around who could be unleashed and played at the small ball stretch four, where he belongs. The Grizzlies were a rough and tough team that just needed a 3 who could defend and shoot the long ball. Prince isn’t perfectly that, but he’s better than Rudy. More importantly, Pondexter is perfect for this role. Memphis would be smart to move Prince along and let Quincy play more. 

The thing that gets me is how so many basketball people lamented the trade. Magic, Shaq, Kenny, Wilbon, and so many more talking heads at Bristol said you couldn’t “win without the star” and they were “trading a dollar for 65 cents”. Normally that’s right, but the truth was Rudy wasn’t a star anymore. I watched Bill Simmons for weeks try to talk sense into his coworkers about how Rudy and his inefficient game being gone was actually good for the Grizzlies, especially when calculating in his salary savings and his horrendous shooting from 18 feet and out. They ignored him. But when it came to the playoffs and the Grizzlies got going and blasted their way into the Western Finals, they weren’t reversing course. You could tell several times they wanted no part of talking about this trade again because of how wrong they were. And I think Simmons was holding back from gloating. I know, the Grizzlies have exited already. But it wasn’t because they didn’t have Rudy Gay. He would have sunk them more. I am cringing from all the long terrible threes Leonard would have suckered him into.

If you will, please joing me in examining the Pacers and the logic inadequately applied to them this year. All season, they were derided because their bench is terrible, especially at the 1 and 5. But then we also hear that the bench matters far less in the playoffs, because the starters frequently play so many more minutes. So why are we surprised that the Pacers have again had a solid playoffs? Those starters have carried them. Has the bench let them down, and potentially cost them a win or two? Absolutely. But on the whole, Indiana has done well and still could win this series. Mainly because Paul George and Roy Hibbert aren’t playing 33 minutes. They are playing 43, so the inferior bench matters far less. And oh by the way? Those 5 Indy starters know each other really well. Of course, Granger being there would be nice and would let Lance “I think I’m Jamal Crawford” Stevenson not play so many important minutes. But overall, the logic remains true. 

Okay, I love basketball. But during the regular season, I don’t freak out about catching every game. I like watching, but I don’t count the stats or the wins until late in the year. I also don’t particularly care about home court or seedings to be honest. Ellis and LARRY SANDERS! had to be separated in the locker room during a playoff game. I think the Bucks were losing the first round regardless of the matchups. I didn’t really care about the Lakers record (cmon, they were at least getting into the playoffs), the Celtics record immediately following Rondo’s injury (it didn’t matter, the eye test said they couldn’t be as good in the long run), or especially the HEATs streak (statistical anomaly, and inherently meaningless). Would you rather win 20 straight games by 8 points per game, or 18 of 20 by 9.5 points per game? That should be an easy answer, yet I’ll bet most people get it wrong. If those are regular season games, the second scenario tells you more about your team and better indicates overall skill level. What the HEAT were in the regular season was impressive if all of their wins had come in a row or distributed how they were.

We put too much pressure on the regular season. Granger tried to come back too early, then pushed it. We don’t know if he had taken a long recovery whether he’d be playing now but it is possible. Roy Hibbert signed a big last offseason then had a “bad” regular season. People derided him and his new deal. Guess what? I would argue he didn’t have such a bad season. He produced about the same points per minute as he has for three years. He upped his blocks from 2 to 2.6 while playing less minutes per game. His PER was still a solid 17.35. But the biggest deal is he saved energy and minutes for the post season, where it matters. And he went from solid to dominant since they tipped it off with Atlanta in round one. The regular season was his warmup, and chance to adjust to playing with Paul George.

One could also say that about the Spurs and Duncan. Pop figured out some things that could work. They keep the ball movement/active shooter/Parker centric offense that has been so great for them 3 years running but used the regular season to figure out how to play Splitter and Duncan together while still doing all of that. Meanwhile, they let Manu and Diaw play fewer minutes and skip games frequently due to age and injuries, and Duncan played one of his most efficient seasons ever. The Spurs were derided for this, and fined by Stern and the NBA (probably more times than we know). But guess what? THEY WERE RIGHT! They are in the Finals. And they have all that accumulated rest from the year and these ten days of a break to prepare for the HEAT or Pacers coming up June 6^th. The Spurs have used the regular season as a test tube, and shook it enough times to make sure they knew what their end product would be.

One of the reasons I think the Spurs have a solid shot of beating either team in the Finals is because of another regular season casualty: Dwyane Wade. Wade is a top 5 all time shooting guard. His performance during the 06 Finals, aided by corrupt reffing or not, is an all time mark. But that guy is gone. This is a broken down, old, inconsistent player. The transformation of the HEAT from a two man offensive game plan with Bosh pick & roles and tough defense to a Lebron-centric offense with Bosh clearing the rim and 3 shooters on the arc has hidden how bad Wade really has become. This is all comparative of course: a “terrible” D Wade is still better than Bayless or Jason Terry. But he can’t do many things anymore, and many of the things he can do are produced randomly and without any consistency. Jacoby said on the BS Report the other day: “he looks like DWade for stretches and seems fine, but you look up in the 4^th quarter and he has 14 points on 6 of 17 shooting.” And Simmons makes the most astute comment: he attempts under 5 FTs a game now.  

The HEAT played Wade 35 minutes a game in the regular season through 69 games this year. He was efficient yes, but Wade didn’t create points as much as he many times received them. There is a big difference there. He played strong minutes during the aforementioned winning streak that inherently means nothing now. Ginobili, who is four years older than Wade but has played 5000 less minutes (roughly 29000 for Wade, 24500 for Ginobili) played 23 minutes a game over 60 games. That is a 1000 net minute difference this year alone. Wade is more important to his team, but not by that much. If the HEAT wanted to maximize this year and the next (we know Bron is out after that), then Wade should have been sitting far more and asked to do less. I don't know who that reflects on more: Riley, Spo, Wade himself, agents, marketing, the trainers, or some combinations of everyone. Likewise, money, pride, stubborness, or short sighted thinking could be most to blame. Wade hasn’t touched twenty points in a game for a while, and this is a player who AVERAGED 30 PPG only four years ago. Manu should be ready to go. While Wade is better than Manu, even now, the rest and prep may equalize them.

Maybe it won’t matter. The HEAT may very well still win the title this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised. But Lebron will have score 30, assist 8, and play 46 minutes minimum to do that. Or Wade will have to show something that he has been holding in reserve, and I just don’t see how he has that. He used it beating Charlotte and Orlando for a regular season game winning streak. That is something I just don't understand. 

2013 NBA Playoffs Round 3

The first few rounds are relatively easy: 1 vs 8 SHOULD be an simple call 99% of the time. The second round gets a little harder but normally you see something in round 1 that shows you something about each team, however small or large. The Spurs were going to beat the Dubs because Mark Jackson's team couldn't execute, especially late in games. The Bulls were too beat up to win. The Pacers were a more solid bunch than the Knicks' newly embraced ISO ugly offense. And the Thunder lost Westbrook.

But these Conference Finals have trimmed the excess and are only bringing the best to play. I am going to use this piece to logic myself to some conclusions. We will have to see if they make sense.

W2. Spurs versus W4. Grizzlies
This is extremely tough, and should be fantastic series. I am hoping for a long and healthy one, as the matchup has several juicy potential points. These teams are very different. The Spurs are efficient, quick, sabermetric, well rounded, have a deep bench, and have all the experience in the world. They have three stars who have done this year after year, and a young stud ready to make his name known.

The Grizz are what San Antonio used to be: Grit and Grind, slow it down, two big guys and a point guard, with an erratic but fiery backup guard off the bench. They even have the starting wing player no one likes (Tony Allen) similar to what Spurs had (Bruce Bowen).

Funny enough, both teams excel at long series, but for differing reasons. San Antonio makes adjustments so well. We saw it in the last round: the Spurs were lucky get a split in the first two games but then schemed around what Curry and Klay were doing and thoroughly dominated them over the next 4 games.

The Grizz love long series because of their Grit and Grind mentality. They wear you down, and by games 4-6 they have bruised you physically and struck mentally as well. See Clippers, Blake Griffin.

So how does one determine this series? Tony Parker and Marc Gasol are pretty much making the "best player in the series wins it" theory a jump ball. Home court isn't going to be crazy important here either. Pop is better than Hollins sure, but this isn't a Pop versus Vinny del Negro or Scottie Brooks type situation.

It came down to this: I think Parker dominates Conley more than any Memphis big can dominate a matchup with Splitter, who if healthy is going to be competent there. But more jmportantly, Manu is going to rock Bayless in this. I have zero trust in Bay less being consistent, especially defensively. Spurs win in 7, on the strength on their superior execution, bench play, and strength on the wings. I'll take Manu/Leonard/Green/Neal over Bayless/Prince/Allen.



E1. HEAT versus E3. Pacers

-There is a legit case to be made that the Pacers can do this. They match up well, with talent across the board. I trust Lance, George, and Hill to rotate through Wade and Lebron. David West and Roy Hibbert may literally eat Bosh for lunch.

But, the HEAT will play a stretch four enough to negate some of the inside strength of the Pacers, and the HEAT's bench will vastly outproduce Gerald Green, DJA, and Psycho T.

Sadly, HEAT in 6. Tyler Hansborough terrifies me. He's entering Kendrick Perkins area. But more than anything else, the Pacers' tendency for turnovers and not scoring for stretches makes this a win for Miami. Ugh, I feel dirty.



I guess I still have a HEAT over Spurs Finals, though begrudgingly. The Spurs could win that, but if they survive Memphis it will be with bumps and bruises. A lot would depend on health at that point, for Wade too.

2012 NBA Redraft Odyssey: MB vs VP

VP - As the start of a new NBA season arrives in full force, Bliss and I have returned to bring you this year’s Redraft column. Now if you need a refresher on what we’re talking about, this column will be a Simmons-style trade value column, except we will be “redrafting” the top 60 current NBA players, based on the players’ current levels and their potentials, to create 30 tandems to create our own “bizarro NBA.” Now, this is going to be a geography-independent (as you’ll see once you see the “teams” that are doing the drafting) and a completely biased endeavor, but we’re hoping to alleviate that last issue with our differing viewpoints and some statistical grounding.

MB - Let’s draft!


THE MAIN EVENT
MB - The Redraft Rule Book:
1.      Any current NBA player is eligible. They must have either played last year or
clearly be playing this coming year.
2.      Their current salary doesn’t matter. All the 1st round players would get max
level contracts under a similar CBA to what is in place now (say 14-17 million
based on slot). 2nd round players would get a star level contract not quite at the
first round level (9-13 million based on slot). The old contracts wouldn’t matter.
Technically, you could consider their motivation level based on past income, but
for the purposes of this column, we will not consider this factor much.
3.      Assume you are getting the player for the next 5 years. The lesson of this is, of
course, that the age (and games logged) of the player matters.
4.      We won’t count minor injuries, especially in the scope of 5 years. Kevin Love’s
hand injury won’t be a big consideration, though Dirk’s knee might be. Amare’s   knee is in no way minor.
5.      We will not considering offensive systems or anything like that. Assume that the
coaches who will work with these teams are smart enough to cater to the two starters that they immediately receive. Vinny Del Negro isn’t involved at all.

VP - For those of you keeping track at home, let’s get to the most glaring missed calls from last year first - both Bliss and I passed on LeBron in the top 5 for the Redraft/Value column and predicted a Thunder over Bulls finals matchup. Ouch. In our defense, Rose got hurt, but in all honesty, LBJ was probably not going to be stopped from grabbing his first ring this past season. Our Rose/Durant/Dwight/Deron picks are still pretty defensible despite the injuries, but Bliss reached with Melo and I definitely reached with Amare (can you tell that we’ve both lived in NY?). Chris Paul made us pay for doubting him by proving his worth in the short-term, although we were oddly prescient with our LeBron/Ray Allen pairing, so I’d say that’s a wash (whistles while changing the topic, Mike is death staring me now). Now without further ado, let’s start this year’s redraft odyssey!



1. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Kevin Durant.
MB - No argument. Perhaps the best talent, best character, and best “asset” a franchise can have right now. 23 years old. And I totally thought of the team name.

2. MB - Akron Integrity select LeBron James. I hate it, but the talent is there and he is in his prime. Hard to argue against it. And the second best team name I thought of.
VP - It’s the right pick, but I can still hate it. I’m just glad I didn’t have to make it.

3. VP -  Bangor Moose take Dwight Howard.
MB - Ouch, ouch, ouch. Sorry, my back started hurting all of a sudden.
VP - The back injury worries me too, but it’s hard not to take the league’s best center at this spot.

4. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Kevin Love.
VP - Great rebounder + versatile scorer + deft passer = bona fide franchise cornerstone.

5. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Russell Westbrook
MB - RW has more value without Durant, so this is the right place for him.
VP - Finally free to be the alpha dog he is.

6. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Rajon Rondo.
Honestly, I would have taken him over Westbrook. Rondo has proven to be a strong team leader, raise his game in the playoffs and run a variety of team styles. Oh, and Rondo would look awesome in like Black, grey, and Red highlights. That kind of uniform.
VP - Is that an alternate jersey you made in 2K?
MB - Um, no.....okay maybe.
VP - Team name was mine though.
MB - Credit due, and given.

7. VP - Montana Roam take Deron Williams.
MB - Montana will make sense later readers. And for Deron, I have always loved him and think this is the correct place for him. The last two years have been a little troubling, but overall he might be highest rated PG if you added values across all categories.

8. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Kyrie Irving. Draws your eye on every single play. Intangibles and tangibles are off the charts. Love him so much. And I want it on record VP wanted to kill me after this pick. That’s a good sign you are doing something right.  
VP - Uncle Drew will be taking all these youngbloods, with their rappity-hippity-hop and flashy shoes, to school for years to come.

9. VP - Kansas City BBQ take DeMarcus Cousins.
MB - Editorial note, this was the name for the previous team, but once VP uttered the horrible words “Demarcus Cousins”, I knew BBQ needed to be reassigned.
VP - His talent level, if harnessed by the right coach, could make his team monstrous.

10. MB - Springfield Loggers take Derrick Rose.
MB - Injury aside, he is talented and has the drive. Adrian Peterson was ripping off 60 yard TD runs, 8 months after an ACL tear. Rose will be balling hard by February and for years to come.
VP - Editorial note: MB originally picked “Derek” Rose. Here is our unedited gchat exchange:

“VP: uh, Derek?
MB: I can’t spell.
VP: No, I think that was a Freudian slip. You miss the Captain.
MB: Oh shove off.”

11. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Blake Griffin.
MB - Don’t like the low post game, but the excitement level is undeniable. He will print tickets. And totally my team name.

12. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Lamarcus Aldridge.
MB - The best possible name for a team, amuses me incredibly. Geeking out a little too much.
VP - Safe cornerstone to build around.

13. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Andrew Bynum.
VP - Nothing ominous about that being pick #13 at all.
MB - Not at all. Also, what happens when the Offense’s Offensive Production is Offensive? Sorry to go on offense with this commentary, but the Offense made that offense more likely.

14. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Marc Gasol.
MB - More consistent, less liable for injury than Bynum. Also, currently playing. I would have taken him over Bynum

15. VP - Savannah Long Grass take CP3.
VP - Immediate title window, then tanking for a number 1 pick.
MB - Yup and yup. Don’t know what else to say. That knee is giving. Just is.

16. MB - Montpelier Saps take Josh Smith.
MB - 2nd banana, but still hasn’t hit his prime and made strides last year.

17. VP - Hartford Whalers take Rudy Gay.
MB - As talented as Durant perhaps, but just doesn’t care every other game. I’ll believe it when I see it. The team is so perhaps he would play better closer to home.

18. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters select James Harden.
MB - More than talented enough for this. But he can’t be the lead guy. I’ll match him with someone in the next round that can be the alpha guy. If that makes sense.

19. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Ricky Rubio.
VP - It was time to reach and make a bit of a crowd-pleasing move. You’re welcome ladies.
MB - Screw you, a**hole. That was my pick. Oh, sorry. Calmer now.

20. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Carmelo Anthony.
MB - See how it feels? Huh?! See how it feels VP??? Okay, seriously though, too much talent to ignore. Will sell tickets and score a ton of points. Still has a chance to mature.
VP - Mike, you know I hated him coming to the Knicks from day one. I would never pick him to be the foundation of my franchise. And as a bitter Knicks fan, I can confidently say that he will never mature.
MB - Don’t be repetitive VP. “Bitter” is an unnecessary modifier to “Knicks fan”. Also, Carmelo would love Albuquerque, right?

21. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Anthony Davis. Fire up the hype machine folks - the Brow is coming back to town!
MB - Fundamentally he needs a lot of work. As a franchise builder, I have no problem with it. I think he becomes more Tyson Chandler than Blake Griffin. That isn’t all a bad thing however.

22. MB - NH Freedom take Greg Monroe. Consistent, would fit well in New Hampshire, very reliable.

23. VP - Delaware Knights take DWade.
MB - I’ll wait to comment until I see his teammate. Not necessarily upset about this.

24. MB - Topeka Twisters take Al Horford. 20-10, 50%, no fuss. Sign me up.

25. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Al Jefferson.
MB - See above. Though I firmly think Horford has a higher ceiling. Won two championships in college. Consistent in the playoffs. Jefferson has neither.

26. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take John Wall. Don’t love him but he was a number 1 pick two years ago and has played well. This will be a determining year for him.
VP - Yeah, he fell way too far. Probably a good place for him.

27. VP - Montreal Illuminati takes Tony Parker. I have a near-MVP argument for him actually (shameless plug: http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-2013-nba-season-predictions-mb-vs.html)
MB - Parker is simply a leader and a winner. Probably would quietly seethe about being selected behind Wall actually, but take it out in a ridiculously efficient season.

28. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Pau Gasol. Would be fine as the primary guy.
VP - If this was 3 years ago.

29. VP - Durham Basilisks take Kobe Bryant. Being drafted after Pau will fuel him.
MB - Taking credit for this team name too. Mamba and Duke references.

30. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Andre Iguodala. Defense, leadership, intangibles. And on the flip...
VP - Chief Blocka is a great pick, but he needs an alpha-dog scorer to flourish.

31. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Dirk Nowitzki to partner Iggy. The Pride will be coached by Don Nelson.
VP - A resounding yes. This team would be so much fun to watch.

32. VP - Durham Basilisks take Chris Bosh to pair with Kobe Bryant. They will be coached by Coach K and will hope to recapture some Team USA magic.
MB - Kobe will only attempt to kill Bosh a few times. Probably a good pairing actually.

33. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Ty Lawson to pair with Pau Gasol. They will be coached by Mike D’Antoni and score 120 points a game.

34. VP - Montreal Illuminati take Serge Ibaka to pair with Tony Parker. They will be coached by Gregg Popovich, of course.

35. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take Danny Granger to pair with John Wall. They will be coached by Tony Kornheiser.

36. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Steph Curry to pair with Al Jefferson. They will be coached by Kevin McHale and will try to see if Kobe will sell them some ankle insurance (he will not).

37. MB - Topeka Twisters take Kyle Lowry to pair with Al Horford. They will be coached by Scotty Brooks. Seems about right in terms of temperaments for those players. This team will be a plus team in rebounding and field goal percentage.

38. VP - Delaware Knights take Tyson Chandler to go with DWade. They will be coached by Rick Carlisle on their way to either a ring or a trip to the DL.
MB - Maybe more than any other team, this one will be looking for a young star in the next round to become THE guy in two years. Paul George like. Well, maybe not him exactly because…

39. MB - NH Freedom take Paul George to go with Greg Monroe. They will be coached by Larry Bird. Seems right.

40. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Steve Nash to go with Anthony Davis. They will be coached by...oh screw it Steve Nash would be the coach anyways.
MB - I don’t hate it: just don’t think it works for the future. And I claim credit for that coach.

41. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Joakim Noah to pair with Carmelo Anthony. They will be coached by Mike Brown.
VP - (Carmelo screams)
MB - Muhuhuhuhahaha.

42. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Klay Thompson to pair with Ricky Rubio. They will be coached by Jason Kidd.
MB – Nice! Like New Jersey after the Vince Carter trade. That didn’t turn out well though.

43. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters selects Kevin Garnett to pair with James Harden. They will be coached by Derek Fisher. Mainly because KG is too hard for most people to handle and Harden should probably be allowed to talk to himself most of the time.

44. VP - Hartford Whalers take Roy Hibbert to pair with Rudy Gay. They will be coached by Hubie Brown.
MB – Absolutely. And a good pairing in terms of usage. Strong defensive team.

45. MB - Montpelier Saps take Brandon Jennings to pair with Josh Smith. They will be coached by Avery Johnson. The crazy team who will force a ton of turnovers, and also commit a ton of turnovers.

46. VP - Savannah Long Grass take Marcin Gortat to pair with CP3. They will be coached by Alvin Gentry.
MB - Just run all the sets they had for Nash and Gortat. Which, you know, wasn’t incredible but was decent.

47. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Eric Gordon to pair with Marc Gasol. They will be coached by Phoenix’s knee doctor.

48. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Jrue Holiday to pair with Andrew Bynum. They will be coached by Doug Collins. Real life, meet bizarro NBA. Bizarro NBA, meet real life.

49. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Joe Johnson to pair with Lamarcus Aldridge. They will be coached by Ernie Johnson. Mainly due to temperament.

50. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Monta Ellis to pair with Blake Griffin. They will be coached by Larry Brown, who will quit midseason.

51. MB - Springfield Loggers take Jonas Valanciunas to pair with Derrick Rose. They will be coached by Michael Wilbon, because of the Chicago connections.

52. VP - Kansas City BBQ take Danilo Gallinari to pair with Demarcus Cousins.
MB - They will be coached by a translator. Or something, I don’t know.

53. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Paul Millsap to go with Kyrie Irving. They will be coached by Kenny the Jet Smith. Just a solid team, guys I think Alaska would love having. Need a shooting guard to add to this, and would be awesome.

54. VP - Montana Roam take Brook Lopez to go with Deron Williams. They will be coached by Jerry Sloan, of course, who already lives in Montana. Deron screams.
MB - I claim credit for that coach selection, there is the Montana connection everyone. It is effing perfect. Gerald Wallace ironically is a great fit for this team coming back around.

55. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to pair with Rajon Rondo. They will be coached by Doc Rivers. I would love to get Kevin Martin or David Lee coming back with this team if we went to three rounds. Or Pierce of course.

56. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Andrew Bogut to pair with Russell Westbrook. They will be coached by Tom Thibodeau.
MB - What a nightmare to defend Westbrook, what a bigger nightmare to try to score on them at all. Add like Thabo, Gerald Wallace, Reggie Evans and this is a monster team.

57. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Mike Conley to go with Kevin Love. They will be coached by Rick Adelman. That clearly worked out for Love last season, so why change a good thing up?

58. VP - Bangor Moose takes Goran Dragic to pair with Dwight Howard. They will be coached by Shaq, of course.
MB - No complaints. Add a couple of shooters, basically the 2008-2009 Magic all over again. That isn’t a bad thing, they did go to the Finals.
VP - Exactly. This could just as easily have been Brandon Knight (who would’ve been perfect with Kevin Love), but I think Goran’s scoring is a better match.

59. MB - Akron Integrity take Andrea Bargnani to pair with Lebron James. They will be coached by Dan Gilbert. Getting a little silly, but Lebron should have to fight with everyone in his organization, on the court and off it. And someone like Bradley Beal coming around again in the third round, that works out really well for this team.

60. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Evan Turner to pair with Kevin Durant. They will be coached by Phil Jackson.
MB – Love it and totally agree. Kind of a Jordan/Pippen like division of responsibilities on this team (ie one scorer who dominates the ball and the other guy is second but more cleans up on defense, rebounds well, and facilitates from a 2-4 position). Let’s project just one more pick. Who would it be?
VP - Probably Duncan. Good right now and room to grow. Duncan can be like David Robinson going forward.
MB - Was thinking Pierce or Knight, but that works. Might be my team to beat considering that third round pick. The Parker/Ibaka/Pop team would be really good too though. They could add Varejao pretty easily in the middle of the third, that would be a dangerous group.

 

MB – Okay everyone, thanks for tagging along with the VP and myself on this redraft odyssey. We had a lot of fun, and appreciate you hanging with us. Have a great year. Even if, you know, your favorite player is traded two nights before the season starts.


-Mike Bliss and Vishal Patel