2014-2015 NBA Playoffs Round 4

I have had the Warriors for a few rounds now, and am not changing. They were the best team all year, and nothing has substantially changed. Dubs in 5 over the Cavs. A sweep wouldn’t surprise me.

Honestly, I had to take a step back before making my prediction because I wanted to remove my biases. I have never liked Lebron, just not my style of superstar. The Cavs team is built terribly, and is going to sink itself this offseason by extending JR, Iman, and Thompson while Love runs away. They traded a career of Wiggins for an incomplete season of Love, which sounds insane. They run painful offensive sets and their defense, while much better in the playoffs to be fair, is not that good. Kyrie is a turnstile.

Meanwhile, I love these Warriors. Curry is what I made Steve Nash be in 2K for years: a freak shooter and passer who has 30 point/10 assist games with 7 3s. It just never happened in real life until Steph came into the league. Klay won me a fantasy title at the end of his rookie year (the Dubs were terrible and injured so they let a rookie SG just take as many shots as he wanted. It was fantastic for fantasy purposes). Barnes was one of my favorite college players. Bogut was a 2K mainstay in the early part of his career: I had sneaky Bucks’ wins when my opponents couldn’t name half the team (Redd and Mo Williams!). Iguodala was one of my favorite players of the last decade, still an underrated (if now overpaid) Swiss Army knife, leader, and awesome competitor. Barbosa can get a ring to represent all those Suns from the mid  to late 00’s that deserve one. However, I think my biases can be put aside for this prediction. Simply, the Warriors are so much better by any metric. They are a child of the D’Antoni Suns and 14-15 Spurs.

Honestly, I don’t think the Cavs are that good. I feel stronger about this one on paper than I did about the Spurs over the Cavs last season. They Xs and Os are more conclusive. There is a leadership factor to input because Lebron has been here and Golden State has not. However, Golden State isn’t exactly a young team. Green. Barnes, and Klay are still relatively green. However, Green and Barnes have been in the playoffs every year of their career. Steph is in year 6, Bogut and Lee have 10 years in the NBA at this point, and guys like Barbosa, Iguodala and Livingston have been around a long while. The Cavs, outside of Lebron and Perkins, really don’t have much more experience under pressure. If anything, they have less. Kyrie, Thompson, and Shumpert have few high leverage reps in their career.

Kerr has outcoached Blatt all year. Kerr gets the rookie coach title, but worked as a GM for so many years with a good team in Phoenix (and now has high class assistant coaches with him in Golden State) that his relative coaching age isn’t “rookie”. Blatt has been better in the playoffs than the regular season, but still makes stupid mistakes.

In terms of matchups, there are two glaring issues. The first is that there is nowhere to hide Kyrie. He can’t guard Steph, and Klay/Barnes would be a disaster in the post or while running around screens. No matter what you do, Kyrie is a sieve defensively. Take him out of the game because of his defensive liabilities, and then you don’t have to worry as much on the other end about defending the CLE PG spot.

The second issue is Lebron. No one can guard him, still. However, in the playoffs his jumper is broken and I don’t think a week is going to fix it. For the first time in a long time, Lebron is in part getting stats and impact through sheer numbers of possessions, not shot efficiency. Part of his allure was that he got 25 points on 15 shots. Now he is getting 30 on 25 shots. The 3s are not falling. So, the gameplan should be to find people who can slow him down and force him to take jumpers. Ignore the times he makes them and go forward. The Spurs did it with Leonard. Most teams have 1 or 0 guys who can make an attempt. Jimmy Butler did okay, and Carroll, before the injury, was again okay at it. The reason I love this matchup for the Warriors is that they have 4 guys who can do an acceptable job on Lebron.

Draymond Green is a great match for Lebron among all available defenders. Iguodala has always been a good option and is still viable. Harrison Barnes has the length and youth to be a really good third defensive option and one that Golden State doesn’t have to panic about when a switch happens. Klay Thompson isn’t the greatest option on Lebron, but he plays good hard defense using his length on opponents. He will have Kyrie I’d assume (consider how well Klay defends CP3 and Mike Conley), but like with Barnes the Warriors won’t panic if he gets switched on Lebron. Most teams would love to have Klay as the 4^th option defensively on Lebron.

Generally, the Warriors can switch just about everything and that is a major key to their success defensively. Bogut guarded Tony Allen as the key adjustment in the second round for goodness’ sake. The Cavs always have to hide Kyrie, and bench Mozgov when something just doesn’t work with him. The Warriors may blitz with the Curry/Klay/Barnes/Iggy/Green lineup and I have no idea how the Cavs contain that unless they try Lebron at the 5 himself. The 3 point shooters Cleveland uses in James Jones and Mike Miller would get abused this series where they walked about unscathed in the Hawks’ series. Plus, you know, there is the Curry problem. If Lebron covers Curry that’d be most effective, but would have devastating impact in the rest of the matchups. Barnes, Green, and Iggy would kill whoever they got in the cross match.  

The numbers suggest a very efficient series victory for Golden State. I think Golden State got its scare in the past series injury wise and in the previous series with their invincibility bubble popped. Cleveland has been overachieving for a while now, and taking advantage of a really easy Eastern Conference. Curry completes the incredibly hard (and statistically unlikely) task of being able to beat each of the other four All-NBA performers in 4 consecutive rounds.

NBA 2014 Finals Predictions

11.5 months later….it is the Spurs and HEAT again. It wasn’t a wasted year per se, but the expected Final Four teams were the last 4 teams standing. I did pick the Spurs in 5 over the Pacers at the beginning of the year, and still feel good about my thought process. Spurs in 6 seems more logical now, but a similar thought to where I started. Honestly, I feel better about the pick now that when I made it 6 months ago.

Many think that the HEAT had a more impressive run to the Finals this year, but that isn’t true. The HEAT got by Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Indiana. All decent teams, but not elite and not in their best shape. Their adjusted win margin is about +7.1. The Spurs had to beat the Mavs (who would have gone to the ECF were things switched), Blazers, and Thunder (their nemesis and horrid matchup). Their adjusted win margin is +8.2. The HEAT got scored on well in stretches by the inept Pacers. I think the Spurs have a few absolute masterpiece showcases on offense in this series, and can also gut out some other games.

Also, some have pointed out that the Spurs played 3 more games than the HEAT this postseason and may be tired. First, the idea that the rested team wins more is actually wrong. Stats show when there is a 4 games played or less discrepancy in playoff teams for the Finals, the team that played the MOST games won the title just under 73% of the time. It seems the experience, rhythm, and reps mean more than rest. And it will be only a day difference in rest since their last game, which helps Parker’s ankle and pretty much no one else on either team.

Oh, and the HEAT are actually older on average than the Spurs, and only the Spurs have players in the 18-23 age range who play. Sure Duncan and Manu together qualify for retirement benefits, but the whole point is the team plays a deep bench and spreads minutes. They will be ready.

The truth is the Spurs were under a minute from winning a title last year. They probably were better than Miami; Miami just had the best player. The Spurs actually outscored them in that series. It didn’t help that Tony Parker was hurt. Miami was more clutch and a bit more athletic. The Spurs system did beat them, it just didn’t bury them.

So the question of this series is, what’s the difference since last year? Well, the Spurs got better and the HEAT got worse. Wade continues to decline. His lack of shooting actually clogs the lane in pretty bad ways, and the fact he cannot be explosive each and every touch limits his total effectiveness. Battier is a beaten shell of the guy he was. He has already signed on for an announcing gig in college hoops for goodness sake. Allen is perhaps 90% of himself from last year. I have no idea what happened to Cole/Chalmers, they have so little impact. Lebron is about the same and so is Bosh. The HEAT have enough to win, very clearly. Mostly because of Lebron. But I don’t think they pull this one off.

Parker/Manu/Duncan are about the same players they were last year. Scarily, Parker may be HEALTHIER than he was for that series last year. Leonard is better in pretty much every way.  As long as he is aggressive on offense, his impact will be gigantic (darkhorse candidate for Finals MVP). Marco Belinelli should have a great impact, and he wasn’t there last year. Mills was there last year, but he was in no way this involved. He can match Gary Neal’s overall shooting impact, but run the team far more dynamically as a PG. Mills makes me comfortable in a Spurs pick even if Parker was to be sidelined by his ankle issues.

Duncan can do even better than last year on the interior defense of the HEAT. Bosh has gotten worse defensively and Chris Anderson isn’t the same player. I’m pretty sure I could post up Udonis Haslem at this point. The Spurs PG are still good, and the HEAT PGs are declining for some reason. But I believe the main point here is the Spurs will blast the HEAT in the battle of benches, which will swing this series.

So, Spurs in 6. Duncan walks off, and maybe Pop does too. Duncan does it with an MVP.

NBA 2014 Post Season Round 2 Predictions

ROUND TWO PREDICTIONS

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 5. Blazers in 5 games

-Spurs are going in the right direction, and the Blazers are playing above their heads and beyond their years. The Spurs’ offense is going to buzzsaw them.

2. Thunder over 3. Clippers in 5 games

-There is no matchup for Westbrook, and that is pretty much the whole problem here. With Chris Paul nicked up, I have no idea how they hope to stop him. Barnes can take Durant a bit, but even that is a bad matchup. Serge can take Blake head to head, so the matchups are all there for the Thunder.

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:

6. Wizards over 1. Pacers in 6 games

-This is about who is playing well right now. Wall is going to dominate George Hill, and Ariza can slow down George. Overall, this is bad time for Indiana to get such a balanced team. I will say, this is a better series for Hibbert to have an impact because Washington plays legitimate front lines. However, Wizard

2. HEAT over 6. Nets in 7 games

-I think the Nets push the Lebrons, I really do. But in the end, this isn’t a realistic end for them. The HEAT are going to be rusty though because they haven’t played impact basketball in a while. It may help Wade a little, but overall I actually think the time off is a negative. Bosh should have a big series here, as will Deron Williams.

Title Prediction:

Spurs are still the best team, but the Thunder are winning the West and the Finals. In the East, I can’t stand with my Pacers pick. It is more than likely that the HEAT get to a 4^th straight Finals.

NBA 2014 Post Season Round 1 Predictions

Okay, this is going to be fun. Well, in the Western Conference at least. Let’s do this:

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 8. Mavs in 4.

-The Dallas defense is horrible. Leonard will neutralize Monta and it would take an awesome Dirk performance to even get a win in this series. Whatever the offensive efficiency record is for a series, I think the Spurs threaten it in this warmup.

2. Thunder over 7. Grizzlies in 5.

-I think the absence of Nick Calathes will hurt the Grizzlies more than most think. I have no idea who guards Durant. Or Westbrook actually (I like Mike Conley a lot….but not on Westbrook).

         

3. Clippers over 6. Warriors in 5.

-This is a depth issue more than anything. Oh, and Blake/Jordan are salivating knowing they are getting DLee/Draymond.

4. Rox over 5. Blazers in 5.

-Nice thought, no way. Harden and Dwight ensure a first round win. Blazers are MUCH better next year from the experience.

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Pacers over 8. Hawks in 4.

-NBA TV! Respect to the Hawks’ coaching, but no way. The talent disparity is huge here.

2. HEAT over 7. Bobcats in 6.

-I actually like this matchup a bit because Kemba is feisty, Big Al has no counterpart on the other team, and the Bobcats play defense with viable wing defenders. That gets them to a sixth game, not much further.

6. Nets over 3. Raptors in 7.

-Great series. Wish I could pick the Raptors but I just cannot. The Nets have too much veteran acumen.

4. Bulls over 5. Wizards in 6.                  

-Reason number 1, Joakim Noah. Reason number 2, this is the Wizards first rodeo. Reason number 3, Thibs.

Title Prediction:

At this point, I think the Spurs are the best team, bar none. I have the Thunder winning the title because they are the one team the Spurs have a problem with. In the easy, I am going to stay on my preseason Pacers pick. 

2013-2014 NBA Season Predictions

I am really excited for the NBA season.

Don’t get me wrong, I am pretty much always into basketball. I love fantasy hoops: I consider it the best fantasy sport because it is longer than football, but retains the stat focus of baseball without being so insufferably long. Basketball itself is the most personal of sports, easily accessible to the common folk, affordable to go to in person, and decently good with advanced stats. So I love it very much.

But what is surprising is that I am even thinking about it on October 25th. Normally even though I love basketball, pro football is keeping me occupied. Even though I am not the biggest fan of college football, I probably have watched more of that in November the last few years than hoops. I don’t get into hoops fully until the turn of the new year (those Christmas games are my turnover point).But for this season I am locked in already, and cannot wait until tip off. I have drafts on Monday and am pumped. So, let’s do some predictions!

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 8. Wolves          

2. Thunder over 7. Mavs         

6. Grizz over 3. Clippers         

4. Dubs over 5. Rockets         

1. Spurs over 4. Dubs             

2. Thunder over 6. Grizz         

1. Spurs over 2. Thunder, -Leonard makes the LEAP and shuts down Durant. 

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:  

1. Bulls over 8. Pistons           

2. HEAT over 7. Wizards       

3. Pacers over 6. Cavs             

4. Nets over 5. Knicks                        

1. Bulls over 4. Nets               

3. Pacers over 2. HEAT          

3. Pacers over 1. Bulls, -If Thibs manages his minutes, he can win this. So the Pacers win. 

NBA Finals: Spurs over Pacers in 5

-Leonard dominates, limiting Paul George. Parker will be awesome as well, Duncan only has to play Hibbert to a stalemate. The Spurs benefit from the new Finals format (Finally a 2-2-1-1-1). Duncan and probably Pop walk off into the sunset. Ginobili limps off. Pacers are disappointed, but will be viable for the next half decade as it is clear Paul George is a dominant player. 

All NBA Teams:

1. CP3, Harden, Lebron, Durant, Dwight

2. Parker, Rose, Paul George, Love, Marc Gasol

3. Rubio, Curry, Melo, Blake, Dirk

D. Avery Bradley, Tony Allen, Paul George, Lebron, Ibaka

R. Oladipo, McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Zeller, Olynyk

20 Proclamations and Predictions:

1. Bulls will lead the league in wins, just slightly over the Spurs. And everyone will marvel at the two of them doing so. The HEAT are declining, and the Thunder won’t be at full strength for a while, so this was actually easy. The Bulls continue to grind out wins, costing them health in the playoffs.

2. The Pacers’ bench makes the difference in the Eastern Finals, as the big difference from what happened last year. The math on the previous round versus the HEAT was pretty easily actually: Wade/Allen are declining, and Shane Battier probably goes off a cliff. Paul George got better, and they get contributions from Granger and Luis Scola when they didn’t before. So, go Pacers, go!

3. Pau Gasol has a really efficient and productive year, finally in an offensive system with him at center than features his ability to pass, be creative near the rim, and hit longer jumpers. Just no 3s Pau, please.  

4. Kevin Love leads the league in boards, and has over 4 offensive rebounds a game. Rubio leads it in assists, as a combination of minutes/opportunities/game flow. Heck, he’ll lead it in steals as well (that’s not as out there, look at the numbers).

5. Wade finally regresses to a point where we cannot ignore it and Bosh is CLEARLY their second best player, without argument. 

6. Victor Oladipo or Kelly Olynyk wins the Rookie of the Year. Probably VO, but Olynyk could have one weird statline. 

7. The Lakers hit a ton of threes. Not only do they now have time with D’Antoni and Nash to run this thing, but ANYONE shooting over Metta is better, so Nick Young and Xavier Henry fill it up, even if it isn’t crazy efficient. Oh, but the Lakers divebomb and win 30 games because their defensive finishes dead last. You heard me. Nash/Kobe on one leg/Nick Young/person X at PF/old Pau. Holy crap are people going to score on them.

8. The Nets look good but not elite all year, and never really turn it on in the playoffs. However, it is injuries not to “injury prone” Brook Lopez or “old” Pierce and Garnett that do them in, but Deron Williams.

9. Dirk has a career capping season, dropping something like 23.5 PPG, 8 RPG on a 50-40-90 shooting season and the Mavs are a really efficient offensive team behind Jose Calderon.

10. Durant wins the MVP due to voter fatigue, a slightly better record than the HEAT, and his “stepping up when Westbrook was gone”. Lebron deserves it by all stats, but Durant will get it.

11. Serge Ibaka wins Defensive Player of the Year, not just for the blocks, but some increased positional defense and time at center.

12. Rick Adelman wins Coach of the Year, even though we already knew he was great.

13. The Wizards are good, watchable, and give someone a scare in the first round.

14. The Cavs look good on paper, but overall crash due to injuries and ill fits. This team looks drastically different 12 months from now.

15. None of us will know what to do with Andre Drummond. He is a combination of young Shaq/Andries Biedrins/Javale McGee/Andre Blatche/DeMarcus Cousins. For those wondering if that is a compliment or insult….yes.

16. Sixth Man of the Year is a somewhat underwhelming race, but Reggie Jackson gets it because he gets a lot of counting stats while Westbrook is gone.

17. There will be multiple trades in the middle of the season, much more exciting than last year. These will heavily include the Blazers and Hawk among others, because the pieces for both those teams are just so tradable.

18. The Knicks kind of fall apart, and Melo definitively leaves. Next year they win 20 games behind a core of Felton/Iman/JR Smith/Bargnani/Tyson as four of those guys are really declining by then.

19. Asik is traded to the Pelicans as their season crashes due to problems at the swing and defense by Ryan Anderson. Anderson going to Houston makes the Rockets fun to watch and makes Harden excel. Asik lets Anthony Davis dominate at the 4.

20. Harden finishes out of the top 5 in real life MVP votes, but is the number 1 fantasy player with one of the more balanced efficiency/usage combinations in recent history. I am thinking a 24.5/5.5/8/45-40-88 with 2 steals, lower TOs, and a ton of FT makes at a scarce position.

Happy NBA Season everyone!

2013 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

So here we are, Spurs versus the HEAT. For the third year in a row I am faced with trying to build a case against Lebron winning a ring (yes, I am aware of the suggestion bias in that previous sentence).  In my Mavericks pick two years ago I was dead on: the HEAT hadn’t found themselves yet, the Mavs were on a special roll, there was history from ‘06, and Lebron was still shrinking in big games at that point. So I got the prediction right, and felt pretty good about myself.

Last year I picked the Thunder in an equally logical and emotional pick. I loved Durant but especially the Westbrook matchup on Chalmers and Cole. I underrated the newness of the Thunder to the limelight, Lebron’s true ascension to clutch status (which I should have seen coming from the Boston debacle in game six of the previous series), and the lingering effects of Ron Artest’s elbow on James Harden’s head (I couldn’t bring myself to write the pun that would be “Peace’s elbow to Harden’s head”). I don’t hate that Thunder pick in retrospect, but clearly the HEAT should have been the favorites in my mind.

So I come to Spurs-HEAT. In the course of reading some articles for work this week, I came across an interesting comparison with this coming series. “Learning and Organizational Effectiveness” by Nicholas Andreadis posited two definitions for effectiveness. The first was basically “the accomplishment of missions or achievement of objectives”. The second, perhaps not meant to be opposing to the first, is “acquiring of competencies, development, and self knowledge”. This second principle is based around the concept that true success isn’t measured by accomplishing a result but having the expectation that success is predictable. Because the system is so competent, achievement is the most logical result and even expected.

I immediately associated the HEAT with the first theory. They won a title, and made three straight Finals appearances. They are 10-1 in playoff series under Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Those results are indisputably impressive no matter the other circumstances, and deserve praise and mention in the history books. But that’s the extent of what I see. They achieved results, but the team isn’t its most effective. It has gone stretches without an identity, lucked into its now signature offense because Bosh got hurt last year and they improvised on the fly while in the playoffs, and had challenges from teams (Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Boston) that it really shouldn’t have been challenged by. They have the talent, and the results, but what I think most of us are disappointed by is the lack of efficiency during that time in between.

The Spurs on the other hand have that organizational efficiency delineated in the second definition. The way the system is set up “creates predictable results, if not expected”. About three guys on the team can dunk, their three best players are 101 years old combined, multiple team members are without ACLs, and they are not exciting to the casual fan. But Pop is the best at making adjustments, the culture of the club is outstanding, and the system is well oiled, fine tuned, and adjustable. Their system works so well it is a surprise when they don’t success, like last year to the Thunder. Someone has to beat them, they don’t lose to others.

Oh, and I also wrote this ridiculous 2450 word piece on the Spurs' success only 3 months ago. It now seems pretty brilliant if I am being honest.

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

Lebron’s first Finals appearance, seemingly lost to time, was the embarrassment against the Spurs six years ago. I feel like that Finals will be forgotten either way this one goes. If Lebron wins 5 titles, people won’t care about that isolated incident. If he loses in the Finals from here out, that one series won’t be harped on as much as the Mavs series or whatever happens this year. We don’t talk about Kobe losing the ’04 Finals to the Pistons for example, just as we don't talk about any individual Super Bowl loss by the Buffalo Bills. 

However, that Finals, suspiciously underpublicized and buried by the NBA, is now very relevant. At that point at least, Pop had Lebron’s number. Sure, the Cavs at that time were really limited….but news flash, so are the HEAT now. Wade and Bosh aren’t exactly dominating and are probably overpaid, slightly over the hill minor stars now rather than superstars. Lebron’s brilliance puts them here, though he is undeniably more developed than he was six years ago. Of course, so are Parker and Pop.

When I started codify my thoughts on this series, I withdrew from the individual matchup and gazed back at the last two years. As I did so, I realized the case for the Spurs was made for me. The ’13 Spurs recall the ‘11 Mavs much more than they resemble the ’12 Thunder. In both the ‘11 and ‘12 Finals the more experienced and desperate team won. Miami just happened to flip roles between the two years. I wouldn’t necessarily describe the Spurs as more desperate, but they are definitively older and more mature of a group with a shorter window of titles.

Both those Mavs and these Spurs share a decades-long dominance by a star big man, and two guards hungry for a title. I would describe Kidd and Terry of two years ago as having the qualities of “older guard wanting a title”, “fiery off the bench scorer”, “pick and roll monsters”, and “mental leader of an efficient midrange onslaught”. Parker and Ginobili match those qualities, mixed a little bit between the two but similar to Kidd and Terry in total. Leonard and Chandler don’t fit the comparison, but overall the fit is there for these teams.

For this series, the Spurs have the advantage down low. They have a strong coaching advantage. I hold both Lionel Hollins and Spo in similar esteem. Top 10 coaches, but not in Pop’s league. Even if the HEAT start the Finals strong, I believe in the Spurs ability to adjust and get back in it. Again, similar to how Carlisle outcoached Spo in the ’11 Finals.

The matchups are very even. Parker and Duncan should kill Chalmers and Bosh respectively. Wade should outclass Danny Green. I think Miami forces Splitter off the court with smaller packages, and wins that matchup. And I love Kawhi Leonard, but he can’t contain Lebron. He and Paul George might be the best defenders against Lebron, but LBJ is going to get going and be insanely productive again. If the Spurs win this series, it won’t be because Lebron shrinks this time. It will be for other reasons, such as support…similar to CLE-SAS in ’07.

The Spurs have the skills and personal to rotate people with all those shooters and bench guys. Ginobili should equalize Wade at this point when he comes off the bench. And while I am not sure the HEAT will be tired after their long series, the Spurs will benefit from being rested. This will help with Parker a little nicked up in the previous two series. Duncan and Ginobili have this rest and the accumulated rest from the regular season, and be good to go and play their biggest per game minute averages of the season.

The HEAT benefit strongly from having the home court in this series. In a normal series I love the underdog having game 6 at home because it gives them options to finish it off at home or have that opportunity to extend to a game seven. In the Finals 2-3-2 format, underdogs have their best option to win the Finals in 5. Because 6 and 7 are at home for the HEAT, the road for the Spurs to win a long series is limited. Still, I believe that if any team can ignore home-road dynamics, it is the Spurs. Going back to the Mavs-HEAT series two years ago, the big German closed it out in 6 games, at Miami.

So, that is my prediction, Spurs in 6, with Tony Parker as the MVP of the Finals. There will be sentiment for Duncan to get it but the only way the Spurs win this title is if Parker has a dominant 22 and 9 type of series, and he is their best player now. Spurs split at Miami, take 2 of 3 at home, and then win 6 in Miami, tough as that will be. If this goes seven, Miami wins. And if Miami takes both at home to start, Miami wins. The Spurs cover the possibilities in between, and could win in five, though they’d have to take both in Miami I think to do that. I believe it has only happened twice ever that the underdog wins all three at home so there is no counting on that. 

In any case, this will be a really entertaining series between some legendary players. We have 10 Hall of Famers competing in this one (yes, TMac and Bosh is going to get in, no matter how much I hate that) (I’m including Pop and Riley), and there should be some good drama.

No matter what else happens, I have nailed my best ever post season run. 13-1 so far, so the worst I can do is 13-2. So let me make one more prediction while I am feeling it a little: Neither of these teams gets back to the Finals in the next five years. Spurs will retire/dismantle at some point, and the HEAT will break up after next year. Early prediction for next year is Pacers-Thunder, but let’s wait before we get there. 

For now, let’s all get excited about some Gregg Popovich end of quarter interviews! Enjoy everyone. 

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 13-1 (In progress, San Antonio over Miami is the Final pick)

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

Hypocrisy, Stubborness, and the NBA Regular Season

Hypocrisy, stubbornness, and regular season meaninglessness. Those are my thoughts during this series. All four teams tie into these concepts. Here, let me explain. 

I see a lack of logical thinking in so many instances and examples. For example, the Rudy Gay trade. When it happened, most of the people I know and watch basketball with cheered. It gave Toronto a solid player to finally build around who could be unleashed and played at the small ball stretch four, where he belongs. The Grizzlies were a rough and tough team that just needed a 3 who could defend and shoot the long ball. Prince isn’t perfectly that, but he’s better than Rudy. More importantly, Pondexter is perfect for this role. Memphis would be smart to move Prince along and let Quincy play more. 

The thing that gets me is how so many basketball people lamented the trade. Magic, Shaq, Kenny, Wilbon, and so many more talking heads at Bristol said you couldn’t “win without the star” and they were “trading a dollar for 65 cents”. Normally that’s right, but the truth was Rudy wasn’t a star anymore. I watched Bill Simmons for weeks try to talk sense into his coworkers about how Rudy and his inefficient game being gone was actually good for the Grizzlies, especially when calculating in his salary savings and his horrendous shooting from 18 feet and out. They ignored him. But when it came to the playoffs and the Grizzlies got going and blasted their way into the Western Finals, they weren’t reversing course. You could tell several times they wanted no part of talking about this trade again because of how wrong they were. And I think Simmons was holding back from gloating. I know, the Grizzlies have exited already. But it wasn’t because they didn’t have Rudy Gay. He would have sunk them more. I am cringing from all the long terrible threes Leonard would have suckered him into.

If you will, please joing me in examining the Pacers and the logic inadequately applied to them this year. All season, they were derided because their bench is terrible, especially at the 1 and 5. But then we also hear that the bench matters far less in the playoffs, because the starters frequently play so many more minutes. So why are we surprised that the Pacers have again had a solid playoffs? Those starters have carried them. Has the bench let them down, and potentially cost them a win or two? Absolutely. But on the whole, Indiana has done well and still could win this series. Mainly because Paul George and Roy Hibbert aren’t playing 33 minutes. They are playing 43, so the inferior bench matters far less. And oh by the way? Those 5 Indy starters know each other really well. Of course, Granger being there would be nice and would let Lance “I think I’m Jamal Crawford” Stevenson not play so many important minutes. But overall, the logic remains true. 

Okay, I love basketball. But during the regular season, I don’t freak out about catching every game. I like watching, but I don’t count the stats or the wins until late in the year. I also don’t particularly care about home court or seedings to be honest. Ellis and LARRY SANDERS! had to be separated in the locker room during a playoff game. I think the Bucks were losing the first round regardless of the matchups. I didn’t really care about the Lakers record (cmon, they were at least getting into the playoffs), the Celtics record immediately following Rondo’s injury (it didn’t matter, the eye test said they couldn’t be as good in the long run), or especially the HEATs streak (statistical anomaly, and inherently meaningless). Would you rather win 20 straight games by 8 points per game, or 18 of 20 by 9.5 points per game? That should be an easy answer, yet I’ll bet most people get it wrong. If those are regular season games, the second scenario tells you more about your team and better indicates overall skill level. What the HEAT were in the regular season was impressive if all of their wins had come in a row or distributed how they were.

We put too much pressure on the regular season. Granger tried to come back too early, then pushed it. We don’t know if he had taken a long recovery whether he’d be playing now but it is possible. Roy Hibbert signed a big last offseason then had a “bad” regular season. People derided him and his new deal. Guess what? I would argue he didn’t have such a bad season. He produced about the same points per minute as he has for three years. He upped his blocks from 2 to 2.6 while playing less minutes per game. His PER was still a solid 17.35. But the biggest deal is he saved energy and minutes for the post season, where it matters. And he went from solid to dominant since they tipped it off with Atlanta in round one. The regular season was his warmup, and chance to adjust to playing with Paul George.

One could also say that about the Spurs and Duncan. Pop figured out some things that could work. They keep the ball movement/active shooter/Parker centric offense that has been so great for them 3 years running but used the regular season to figure out how to play Splitter and Duncan together while still doing all of that. Meanwhile, they let Manu and Diaw play fewer minutes and skip games frequently due to age and injuries, and Duncan played one of his most efficient seasons ever. The Spurs were derided for this, and fined by Stern and the NBA (probably more times than we know). But guess what? THEY WERE RIGHT! They are in the Finals. And they have all that accumulated rest from the year and these ten days of a break to prepare for the HEAT or Pacers coming up June 6^th. The Spurs have used the regular season as a test tube, and shook it enough times to make sure they knew what their end product would be.

One of the reasons I think the Spurs have a solid shot of beating either team in the Finals is because of another regular season casualty: Dwyane Wade. Wade is a top 5 all time shooting guard. His performance during the 06 Finals, aided by corrupt reffing or not, is an all time mark. But that guy is gone. This is a broken down, old, inconsistent player. The transformation of the HEAT from a two man offensive game plan with Bosh pick & roles and tough defense to a Lebron-centric offense with Bosh clearing the rim and 3 shooters on the arc has hidden how bad Wade really has become. This is all comparative of course: a “terrible” D Wade is still better than Bayless or Jason Terry. But he can’t do many things anymore, and many of the things he can do are produced randomly and without any consistency. Jacoby said on the BS Report the other day: “he looks like DWade for stretches and seems fine, but you look up in the 4^th quarter and he has 14 points on 6 of 17 shooting.” And Simmons makes the most astute comment: he attempts under 5 FTs a game now.  

The HEAT played Wade 35 minutes a game in the regular season through 69 games this year. He was efficient yes, but Wade didn’t create points as much as he many times received them. There is a big difference there. He played strong minutes during the aforementioned winning streak that inherently means nothing now. Ginobili, who is four years older than Wade but has played 5000 less minutes (roughly 29000 for Wade, 24500 for Ginobili) played 23 minutes a game over 60 games. That is a 1000 net minute difference this year alone. Wade is more important to his team, but not by that much. If the HEAT wanted to maximize this year and the next (we know Bron is out after that), then Wade should have been sitting far more and asked to do less. I don't know who that reflects on more: Riley, Spo, Wade himself, agents, marketing, the trainers, or some combinations of everyone. Likewise, money, pride, stubborness, or short sighted thinking could be most to blame. Wade hasn’t touched twenty points in a game for a while, and this is a player who AVERAGED 30 PPG only four years ago. Manu should be ready to go. While Wade is better than Manu, even now, the rest and prep may equalize them.

Maybe it won’t matter. The HEAT may very well still win the title this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised. But Lebron will have score 30, assist 8, and play 46 minutes minimum to do that. Or Wade will have to show something that he has been holding in reserve, and I just don’t see how he has that. He used it beating Charlotte and Orlando for a regular season game winning streak. That is something I just don't understand. 

2013 NBA Playoffs Round 3

The first few rounds are relatively easy: 1 vs 8 SHOULD be an simple call 99% of the time. The second round gets a little harder but normally you see something in round 1 that shows you something about each team, however small or large. The Spurs were going to beat the Dubs because Mark Jackson's team couldn't execute, especially late in games. The Bulls were too beat up to win. The Pacers were a more solid bunch than the Knicks' newly embraced ISO ugly offense. And the Thunder lost Westbrook.

But these Conference Finals have trimmed the excess and are only bringing the best to play. I am going to use this piece to logic myself to some conclusions. We will have to see if they make sense.

W2. Spurs versus W4. Grizzlies
This is extremely tough, and should be fantastic series. I am hoping for a long and healthy one, as the matchup has several juicy potential points. These teams are very different. The Spurs are efficient, quick, sabermetric, well rounded, have a deep bench, and have all the experience in the world. They have three stars who have done this year after year, and a young stud ready to make his name known.

The Grizz are what San Antonio used to be: Grit and Grind, slow it down, two big guys and a point guard, with an erratic but fiery backup guard off the bench. They even have the starting wing player no one likes (Tony Allen) similar to what Spurs had (Bruce Bowen).

Funny enough, both teams excel at long series, but for differing reasons. San Antonio makes adjustments so well. We saw it in the last round: the Spurs were lucky get a split in the first two games but then schemed around what Curry and Klay were doing and thoroughly dominated them over the next 4 games.

The Grizz love long series because of their Grit and Grind mentality. They wear you down, and by games 4-6 they have bruised you physically and struck mentally as well. See Clippers, Blake Griffin.

So how does one determine this series? Tony Parker and Marc Gasol are pretty much making the "best player in the series wins it" theory a jump ball. Home court isn't going to be crazy important here either. Pop is better than Hollins sure, but this isn't a Pop versus Vinny del Negro or Scottie Brooks type situation.

It came down to this: I think Parker dominates Conley more than any Memphis big can dominate a matchup with Splitter, who if healthy is going to be competent there. But more jmportantly, Manu is going to rock Bayless in this. I have zero trust in Bay less being consistent, especially defensively. Spurs win in 7, on the strength on their superior execution, bench play, and strength on the wings. I'll take Manu/Leonard/Green/Neal over Bayless/Prince/Allen.



E1. HEAT versus E3. Pacers

-There is a legit case to be made that the Pacers can do this. They match up well, with talent across the board. I trust Lance, George, and Hill to rotate through Wade and Lebron. David West and Roy Hibbert may literally eat Bosh for lunch.

But, the HEAT will play a stretch four enough to negate some of the inside strength of the Pacers, and the HEAT's bench will vastly outproduce Gerald Green, DJA, and Psycho T.

Sadly, HEAT in 6. Tyler Hansborough terrifies me. He's entering Kendrick Perkins area. But more than anything else, the Pacers' tendency for turnovers and not scoring for stretches makes this a win for Miami. Ugh, I feel dirty.



I guess I still have a HEAT over Spurs Finals, though begrudgingly. The Spurs could win that, but if they survive Memphis it will be with bumps and bruises. A lot would depend on health at that point, for Wade too.

2012-2013 NBA Season Predictions: MB vs VP

2012-2013 NBA Season Predictions:

MB vs VP

MB - As per usual, another NBA season brings another set of season predictions and another contest with the VP himself, Vishal Patel. I will stipulate a new rule this year for our predictions. We cannot pick the winners from last year or truly obvious candidates. With that understanding, the winner between us will go to the person who picks the closest possible person. So we cannot pick Lebron for MVP, but if VP picks Amare and I pick Dirk for MVP, whichever finishes with the most MVP points wins that prediction.  

AWARD SEASON

MVP:
MB - Since Lebron and Durant are ineligible due to my statement from above, I am going with Rajon Rondo. I think this year provides his best opportunity to rise to this level. His age makes sense, they are far enough from Pierce and Garnett being elite that the team success can be more placed on what Rondo contributes, and I think this will be a good regular season team which is the foundation for the award. Rondo has a good formula: he is going to play 40 minutes and a team of spot up shooters that goes 9 deep will play around him in 28 minutes spurts. And he is rocking in my 2K franchise right now. Solid scientific evidence right there. 13.5-5-13.5 with almost 3 steals and 50% shooting on a 55 win team wins this award for the Frog.

VP - I think Bliss’s rooting interests are clouding his judgement here, although it’s hard to argue with that 2K statline. I think Chris Paul is the pick to make here (he didn’t even earn half the number of MVP points that Durant got last year, so I’m using a loophole in MB’s rules and calling this a not-obvious pick). I am rolling the dice on his health holding out for an entire season, but given the fact that the Clippers loaded up their rotation with the likes of Odom, Crawford, and Grant Hill (which alleviates the scoring burden on Blake Griffin and elevates Paul’s stock as the central piece of Lob City), it’s a safe bet to say that CP3’s control of the game and leadership will impress a lot of MVP voters.

DPOY:
MB - With Dwight and Tyson ineligible, I am going to go with Andre Iguodala. It is rare for a wing to win this award, but I think the script could be right for Iggy. He has two opportunities here. First, now he gets to guard Durant, Kobe, Rudy Gay, etc on a more regular basis. It will show off his abilities. He also gets the chance to raise the team’s defensive ranking significantly because Denver wasn’t particularly good in that area last year. That rise might not all his doing, but one can still use that argument at the end of the year for him to win.

VP - I’m going to take the easy way out here and say LeBron James. He’s always guarding the best player on the other team, he’s already known for his stupendous defense, and with added time in the post now, his rebounding numbers, along with his steals and blocks, could actually jump this year.

6th Man:
MB - I am thinking of Chris Kaman. I am actually only slightly sure he’ll qualify. I think Dirk and Brand start once Dirk gets back but Kaman gets plenty of run. He will accumulate stats during the brief time when starting, then be the prime backup afterwards. If he doesn’t end up eligible, I will go with Wilson Chandler.

VP - Thaddeus Young is going to fill in the scoring void left by Lou Williams in Philly, and he’s going to be a great complement to Bynum and will definitely be on the floor at the end of games to offer the 76ers some mobility on defense to make up for Bynum’s “lapses” on that end of the floor. However, Doug Collins might move away from the idea of starting two 7-footers in Hawes and Bynum in today’s faster-paced NBA, so if Young ends up being ineligible, I think Antawn Jamison will snag a second trophy (second 6th man trophy? Or second trophy this year? Keep reading to find out...).

ROY:
MB - Anthony Davis is out based on my ridiculous criteria (which I am already hating myself for), so I am going to go with Damian Lillard for Portland, based solely on opportunity.

VP - I agree with Bliss, Damian Lillard will get all the minutes he can handle in Portland and is the only rookie even remotely close to challenging Davis for ROY.

Stat Time

Scoring (Alpha Dog):
MB - Durant obviously, but I will go with Carmelo Anthony as my pick.  I don’t particularly like Melo or the Knicks this year, but the situation sets up for him to shoot a LOT. That leads to points at least some of the time. Plus, he gets a post Olympic boost.

VP - With Durant, LeBron, and Kobe off the board here, Kevin Love is my pick to challenge for the scoring title. With talented passers like Ricky Rubio, AK-47, Brandon Roy, and Cool Hand Luke (Ridnour) around him, Love is poised to continue his high level of play from last season.

Rebounding (Mister Clean):
MB - Kenneth Faried. I had Humphries here, but decided to go with Faried because: A. He is the Manimal. B. He had a ton of boards when they let him play big minutes last year, C. He will get more minutes this year, and D. Denver will play a little better defense, creating more misses.

VP - I’m really starting to hate Mike’s rules now. Okay, DeMarcus Cousins gets my vote here; he’s talented, in shape, a beast on the defensive glass, and - based on the number of gunners on his team - will have plenty of opportunities to clean up on the offensive end as well.

Assists (Giving Tree):
MB - With CP3, Rondo, and DWill ineligible, I am going to go with Ricky Rubio. This will have to be on per game averages, but he will know the team better and have some better shooters to get easy 3 assists.

VP - Ricky Rubio will probably have the best chance of breaking up the reigning group of favorites. Not only has he gotten a rookie year under his belt, his team has upgraded at the wings, and Rubio should be able to flirt with double-digit assists this year.

Steals (Robber Baron):
MB - Iguodala. The high speed games they will play will lead to a ton of fast steals for Iggy Pop. Probably Rondo though.

VP - Rondo, Paul, and Rubio are the clear favorites. I hate myself for making this pick, but LeBron James will utilize his speed and defensive acumen in his increased playing time at PF to take advantage of opposing bigs and pick their pockets.

Blocks (The David Stern):
MB - Javale McGee. Same argument I used for Iggy and Steals. But really Dwight Howard, obviously.

VP - Barring the obvious picks of Ibaka Flocka and Dwight, I’ll go with the Clippers’ only rim-protector, DeAndre Jordan.

Title Town

Eastern Conference:
MB - HEAT, Celtics, Nets, Pacers, Hawks, Bulls, Raptors, Cavs.
You know the stories on the HEAT, Celtics, and Pacers. The Nets have more talent, health, and better expectations than before. The Hawks and 76ers all made moves that opened something up. The Hawks more than replaced Joe Johnson, and his absence leaves a simpler offense and more touches for Horford, Smith, and Teague. The 76ers may not get much out of Bynum and Iggy’s loss will be felt. Doug Collins may also wear everyone out before long. Thus, I am leaving the Sixers out. The Bulls have enough to keep afloat and get a low seed after Rose comes back. The Raptors I put in over the Knicks. I think due to age and injury the Knicks will fall apart. I like Lowry and LOVE Valanciunas. Kyrie Irving singlehandledly makes a jump into the top 15 players in the league and despite some errors in drafting other than him the last two years, the Cavs are propelled by him to a first round swept by Lebron and the HEAT. Oh, the irony.

VP - Heat, Nets, Celtics, Pacers, Hawks, 76ers, Bulls, Knicks.
Miami’s the easiest pick in the world (let the jinxing begin!), Boston reloaded in the offseason and is looking fantastic, the Nets are the new knock-off version of the Heat, and Indy is still young and constantly improving. The latter half of the conference is harder to predict, but I think Bynum will flourish as the #1 option in Collins’ team, and the Hawks are looking much more exciting with Josh Smith and Horford as the clear (and very complementary) leaders of this team. I think the Knicks will manage to hang on despite injuries to cling to one of the last two spots, and Chicago will be steady enough with the return of Captain Kirk to guide them into the playoffs even without their MVP. The only other team I see challenging for a playoff seed is Cleveland, but as amazing as Kyrie Irving is, he still needs a little more talent than what he has around him to make the postseason, especially in a full 82-game season. One final note: even if they won’t make the playoffs, the Bucks will be extremely entertaining to watch with Jennings and Monta as their backcourt.

Western Conference:
MB - Thunder, Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, Grizzlies, Mavs, Clippers, Jazz
I would have loved to take the Warriors, but Curry is hurt AGAIN. He is such a big part of their success. Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Grizzlies, Clippers are obvious. Nuggets got better with Iggy intangible and talent wise. They will miss some shooting with Afflalo but overall Iggy adds a lot more. Mavs reloaded and will be fine. Kidd had really slipped so that isn’t a significant loss. I left off the Wolves only due to the injuries. If they go 4-12 when Love is gone that’ll just be too big a hole. Next year Wolves. Jazz get development from Gordon Hayward and I like the new, slimmer Enes Kanter to be decent.

VP - Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Clippers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Mavs, Timberwolves
I don’t need to explain the top 4, so let me just say that Denver will not earn home court due to their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Memphis may end up shipping Zach Randolph, but even that possibility won’t be enough to stop Rudy Gay and co. from completing their march to the postseason. The Mavs have enough experience and an added injection of youth into their backcourt to continue their impressive streak of playoff appearances, and my surprise pick of the year is Minnesota, who I think are poised to make a lot of noise in the Western Conference after their offseason additions (and the growth of Love and Rubio). Utah will stagnate and trade one of their bigs midseason, and Golden State will sadly need another year or two of retooling despite a ludicrous amount of talent (just like Sacramento).


Final Four:
MB - Celtics over HEAT in the ECF due to injuries to Wade and Garnett owning Bosh. The Wade thing is going to happen at some point. Staying on my Rondo theme. Thunder over Lakers in the WCF. I’m afraid age will catch up to some combo of Nash/Pau/Jamison and that is an old team. Thunder quietly repeat as Western Champions because guess what? They got better and have the hunger from losing. Thunder over Celtics in the Finals, because who the heck covers Durant? 

*Already have to make an edit to this. At 11:27pm on Oct 27th, we found out James Harden was traded to the Rockers for Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin. I have to update my picks. OKC wasn't more talented than the Lakers: they had experience together and cohesion. Now they don't. Nice job punting a title for money. Now I remember you Clay Bennett. Seattle is nodding knowingly right now. Lakers over Thunder in WCF, Lakers over Celtics in the Finals.

VP - Heat over Celtics in the ECF. Sorry Bliss, but Miami has too many weapons and age is just as big an issue for Boston’s core (minus the amazing Rondo of course). And I don’t care if I sound biased, but Steve Nash will not lose his chance to earn a ring, and so I say Lakers over Thunder in the WCF. David Stern will finally have his Kobe vs. LeBron final, suspiciously right before he retires in the middle of next season. Lakers over Heat in the Finals because the LAL raised Miami’s three All-Stars with four, and the Heat will (hopefully) fold.



Okay everyone. Stay tuned for our redraft monster column coming out Monday. Enjoy football tomorrow.

-BLISS