2012-2013 NBA Season Predictions: MB vs VP

2012-2013 NBA Season Predictions:

MB vs VP

MB - As per usual, another NBA season brings another set of season predictions and another contest with the VP himself, Vishal Patel. I will stipulate a new rule this year for our predictions. We cannot pick the winners from last year or truly obvious candidates. With that understanding, the winner between us will go to the person who picks the closest possible person. So we cannot pick Lebron for MVP, but if VP picks Amare and I pick Dirk for MVP, whichever finishes with the most MVP points wins that prediction.  

AWARD SEASON

MVP:
MB - Since Lebron and Durant are ineligible due to my statement from above, I am going with Rajon Rondo. I think this year provides his best opportunity to rise to this level. His age makes sense, they are far enough from Pierce and Garnett being elite that the team success can be more placed on what Rondo contributes, and I think this will be a good regular season team which is the foundation for the award. Rondo has a good formula: he is going to play 40 minutes and a team of spot up shooters that goes 9 deep will play around him in 28 minutes spurts. And he is rocking in my 2K franchise right now. Solid scientific evidence right there. 13.5-5-13.5 with almost 3 steals and 50% shooting on a 55 win team wins this award for the Frog.

VP - I think Bliss’s rooting interests are clouding his judgement here, although it’s hard to argue with that 2K statline. I think Chris Paul is the pick to make here (he didn’t even earn half the number of MVP points that Durant got last year, so I’m using a loophole in MB’s rules and calling this a not-obvious pick). I am rolling the dice on his health holding out for an entire season, but given the fact that the Clippers loaded up their rotation with the likes of Odom, Crawford, and Grant Hill (which alleviates the scoring burden on Blake Griffin and elevates Paul’s stock as the central piece of Lob City), it’s a safe bet to say that CP3’s control of the game and leadership will impress a lot of MVP voters.

DPOY:
MB - With Dwight and Tyson ineligible, I am going to go with Andre Iguodala. It is rare for a wing to win this award, but I think the script could be right for Iggy. He has two opportunities here. First, now he gets to guard Durant, Kobe, Rudy Gay, etc on a more regular basis. It will show off his abilities. He also gets the chance to raise the team’s defensive ranking significantly because Denver wasn’t particularly good in that area last year. That rise might not all his doing, but one can still use that argument at the end of the year for him to win.

VP - I’m going to take the easy way out here and say LeBron James. He’s always guarding the best player on the other team, he’s already known for his stupendous defense, and with added time in the post now, his rebounding numbers, along with his steals and blocks, could actually jump this year.

6th Man:
MB - I am thinking of Chris Kaman. I am actually only slightly sure he’ll qualify. I think Dirk and Brand start once Dirk gets back but Kaman gets plenty of run. He will accumulate stats during the brief time when starting, then be the prime backup afterwards. If he doesn’t end up eligible, I will go with Wilson Chandler.

VP - Thaddeus Young is going to fill in the scoring void left by Lou Williams in Philly, and he’s going to be a great complement to Bynum and will definitely be on the floor at the end of games to offer the 76ers some mobility on defense to make up for Bynum’s “lapses” on that end of the floor. However, Doug Collins might move away from the idea of starting two 7-footers in Hawes and Bynum in today’s faster-paced NBA, so if Young ends up being ineligible, I think Antawn Jamison will snag a second trophy (second 6th man trophy? Or second trophy this year? Keep reading to find out...).

ROY:
MB - Anthony Davis is out based on my ridiculous criteria (which I am already hating myself for), so I am going to go with Damian Lillard for Portland, based solely on opportunity.

VP - I agree with Bliss, Damian Lillard will get all the minutes he can handle in Portland and is the only rookie even remotely close to challenging Davis for ROY.

Stat Time

Scoring (Alpha Dog):
MB - Durant obviously, but I will go with Carmelo Anthony as my pick.  I don’t particularly like Melo or the Knicks this year, but the situation sets up for him to shoot a LOT. That leads to points at least some of the time. Plus, he gets a post Olympic boost.

VP - With Durant, LeBron, and Kobe off the board here, Kevin Love is my pick to challenge for the scoring title. With talented passers like Ricky Rubio, AK-47, Brandon Roy, and Cool Hand Luke (Ridnour) around him, Love is poised to continue his high level of play from last season.

Rebounding (Mister Clean):
MB - Kenneth Faried. I had Humphries here, but decided to go with Faried because: A. He is the Manimal. B. He had a ton of boards when they let him play big minutes last year, C. He will get more minutes this year, and D. Denver will play a little better defense, creating more misses.

VP - I’m really starting to hate Mike’s rules now. Okay, DeMarcus Cousins gets my vote here; he’s talented, in shape, a beast on the defensive glass, and - based on the number of gunners on his team - will have plenty of opportunities to clean up on the offensive end as well.

Assists (Giving Tree):
MB - With CP3, Rondo, and DWill ineligible, I am going to go with Ricky Rubio. This will have to be on per game averages, but he will know the team better and have some better shooters to get easy 3 assists.

VP - Ricky Rubio will probably have the best chance of breaking up the reigning group of favorites. Not only has he gotten a rookie year under his belt, his team has upgraded at the wings, and Rubio should be able to flirt with double-digit assists this year.

Steals (Robber Baron):
MB - Iguodala. The high speed games they will play will lead to a ton of fast steals for Iggy Pop. Probably Rondo though.

VP - Rondo, Paul, and Rubio are the clear favorites. I hate myself for making this pick, but LeBron James will utilize his speed and defensive acumen in his increased playing time at PF to take advantage of opposing bigs and pick their pockets.

Blocks (The David Stern):
MB - Javale McGee. Same argument I used for Iggy and Steals. But really Dwight Howard, obviously.

VP - Barring the obvious picks of Ibaka Flocka and Dwight, I’ll go with the Clippers’ only rim-protector, DeAndre Jordan.

Title Town

Eastern Conference:
MB - HEAT, Celtics, Nets, Pacers, Hawks, Bulls, Raptors, Cavs.
You know the stories on the HEAT, Celtics, and Pacers. The Nets have more talent, health, and better expectations than before. The Hawks and 76ers all made moves that opened something up. The Hawks more than replaced Joe Johnson, and his absence leaves a simpler offense and more touches for Horford, Smith, and Teague. The 76ers may not get much out of Bynum and Iggy’s loss will be felt. Doug Collins may also wear everyone out before long. Thus, I am leaving the Sixers out. The Bulls have enough to keep afloat and get a low seed after Rose comes back. The Raptors I put in over the Knicks. I think due to age and injury the Knicks will fall apart. I like Lowry and LOVE Valanciunas. Kyrie Irving singlehandledly makes a jump into the top 15 players in the league and despite some errors in drafting other than him the last two years, the Cavs are propelled by him to a first round swept by Lebron and the HEAT. Oh, the irony.

VP - Heat, Nets, Celtics, Pacers, Hawks, 76ers, Bulls, Knicks.
Miami’s the easiest pick in the world (let the jinxing begin!), Boston reloaded in the offseason and is looking fantastic, the Nets are the new knock-off version of the Heat, and Indy is still young and constantly improving. The latter half of the conference is harder to predict, but I think Bynum will flourish as the #1 option in Collins’ team, and the Hawks are looking much more exciting with Josh Smith and Horford as the clear (and very complementary) leaders of this team. I think the Knicks will manage to hang on despite injuries to cling to one of the last two spots, and Chicago will be steady enough with the return of Captain Kirk to guide them into the playoffs even without their MVP. The only other team I see challenging for a playoff seed is Cleveland, but as amazing as Kyrie Irving is, he still needs a little more talent than what he has around him to make the postseason, especially in a full 82-game season. One final note: even if they won’t make the playoffs, the Bucks will be extremely entertaining to watch with Jennings and Monta as their backcourt.

Western Conference:
MB - Thunder, Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, Grizzlies, Mavs, Clippers, Jazz
I would have loved to take the Warriors, but Curry is hurt AGAIN. He is such a big part of their success. Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Grizzlies, Clippers are obvious. Nuggets got better with Iggy intangible and talent wise. They will miss some shooting with Afflalo but overall Iggy adds a lot more. Mavs reloaded and will be fine. Kidd had really slipped so that isn’t a significant loss. I left off the Wolves only due to the injuries. If they go 4-12 when Love is gone that’ll just be too big a hole. Next year Wolves. Jazz get development from Gordon Hayward and I like the new, slimmer Enes Kanter to be decent.

VP - Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Clippers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Mavs, Timberwolves
I don’t need to explain the top 4, so let me just say that Denver will not earn home court due to their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Memphis may end up shipping Zach Randolph, but even that possibility won’t be enough to stop Rudy Gay and co. from completing their march to the postseason. The Mavs have enough experience and an added injection of youth into their backcourt to continue their impressive streak of playoff appearances, and my surprise pick of the year is Minnesota, who I think are poised to make a lot of noise in the Western Conference after their offseason additions (and the growth of Love and Rubio). Utah will stagnate and trade one of their bigs midseason, and Golden State will sadly need another year or two of retooling despite a ludicrous amount of talent (just like Sacramento).


Final Four:
MB - Celtics over HEAT in the ECF due to injuries to Wade and Garnett owning Bosh. The Wade thing is going to happen at some point. Staying on my Rondo theme. Thunder over Lakers in the WCF. I’m afraid age will catch up to some combo of Nash/Pau/Jamison and that is an old team. Thunder quietly repeat as Western Champions because guess what? They got better and have the hunger from losing. Thunder over Celtics in the Finals, because who the heck covers Durant? 

*Already have to make an edit to this. At 11:27pm on Oct 27th, we found out James Harden was traded to the Rockers for Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin. I have to update my picks. OKC wasn't more talented than the Lakers: they had experience together and cohesion. Now they don't. Nice job punting a title for money. Now I remember you Clay Bennett. Seattle is nodding knowingly right now. Lakers over Thunder in WCF, Lakers over Celtics in the Finals.

VP - Heat over Celtics in the ECF. Sorry Bliss, but Miami has too many weapons and age is just as big an issue for Boston’s core (minus the amazing Rondo of course). And I don’t care if I sound biased, but Steve Nash will not lose his chance to earn a ring, and so I say Lakers over Thunder in the WCF. David Stern will finally have his Kobe vs. LeBron final, suspiciously right before he retires in the middle of next season. Lakers over Heat in the Finals because the LAL raised Miami’s three All-Stars with four, and the Heat will (hopefully) fold.



Okay everyone. Stay tuned for our redraft monster column coming out Monday. Enjoy football tomorrow.

-BLISS