NBA 2014 Finals Predictions

11.5 months later….it is the Spurs and HEAT again. It wasn’t a wasted year per se, but the expected Final Four teams were the last 4 teams standing. I did pick the Spurs in 5 over the Pacers at the beginning of the year, and still feel good about my thought process. Spurs in 6 seems more logical now, but a similar thought to where I started. Honestly, I feel better about the pick now that when I made it 6 months ago.

Many think that the HEAT had a more impressive run to the Finals this year, but that isn’t true. The HEAT got by Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Indiana. All decent teams, but not elite and not in their best shape. Their adjusted win margin is about +7.1. The Spurs had to beat the Mavs (who would have gone to the ECF were things switched), Blazers, and Thunder (their nemesis and horrid matchup). Their adjusted win margin is +8.2. The HEAT got scored on well in stretches by the inept Pacers. I think the Spurs have a few absolute masterpiece showcases on offense in this series, and can also gut out some other games.

Also, some have pointed out that the Spurs played 3 more games than the HEAT this postseason and may be tired. First, the idea that the rested team wins more is actually wrong. Stats show when there is a 4 games played or less discrepancy in playoff teams for the Finals, the team that played the MOST games won the title just under 73% of the time. It seems the experience, rhythm, and reps mean more than rest. And it will be only a day difference in rest since their last game, which helps Parker’s ankle and pretty much no one else on either team.

Oh, and the HEAT are actually older on average than the Spurs, and only the Spurs have players in the 18-23 age range who play. Sure Duncan and Manu together qualify for retirement benefits, but the whole point is the team plays a deep bench and spreads minutes. They will be ready.

The truth is the Spurs were under a minute from winning a title last year. They probably were better than Miami; Miami just had the best player. The Spurs actually outscored them in that series. It didn’t help that Tony Parker was hurt. Miami was more clutch and a bit more athletic. The Spurs system did beat them, it just didn’t bury them.

So the question of this series is, what’s the difference since last year? Well, the Spurs got better and the HEAT got worse. Wade continues to decline. His lack of shooting actually clogs the lane in pretty bad ways, and the fact he cannot be explosive each and every touch limits his total effectiveness. Battier is a beaten shell of the guy he was. He has already signed on for an announcing gig in college hoops for goodness sake. Allen is perhaps 90% of himself from last year. I have no idea what happened to Cole/Chalmers, they have so little impact. Lebron is about the same and so is Bosh. The HEAT have enough to win, very clearly. Mostly because of Lebron. But I don’t think they pull this one off.

Parker/Manu/Duncan are about the same players they were last year. Scarily, Parker may be HEALTHIER than he was for that series last year. Leonard is better in pretty much every way.  As long as he is aggressive on offense, his impact will be gigantic (darkhorse candidate for Finals MVP). Marco Belinelli should have a great impact, and he wasn’t there last year. Mills was there last year, but he was in no way this involved. He can match Gary Neal’s overall shooting impact, but run the team far more dynamically as a PG. Mills makes me comfortable in a Spurs pick even if Parker was to be sidelined by his ankle issues.

Duncan can do even better than last year on the interior defense of the HEAT. Bosh has gotten worse defensively and Chris Anderson isn’t the same player. I’m pretty sure I could post up Udonis Haslem at this point. The Spurs PG are still good, and the HEAT PGs are declining for some reason. But I believe the main point here is the Spurs will blast the HEAT in the battle of benches, which will swing this series.

So, Spurs in 6. Duncan walks off, and maybe Pop does too. Duncan does it with an MVP.

NBA 2014 Post Season Round 3 Predictions

ROUND THREE PREDICTIONS

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 2. Thunder in 6 games

-I had it. The Thunder are more athletic, and thus can beat the Spurs who are overall better but will find it hard to keep up. But then Ibaka got hurt. This is a crater in their chances, and really too bad. Perhaps the Thunder will use this as an opportunity to play small ball and really unleash the athleticism. But I doubt it, and I think their defense crumbles without Serge there. 35 minutes a game of Perkins makes me want to cry, but it is probably happening.

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Pacers over 2. HEAT in 7 games

-What a bloodbath. I keep going back and forth. The first thing that got me to a happy place with this pick is the homecourt. The second is that the Pacers are trending upwards while the HEAT look vulnerable and WAY too over dependent upon Lebron. I don’t know that Wade has the next gear. If he doesn’t, this could be shorter.

Title Prediction:

Whoever comes out of the West, basically

NBA 2014 Post Season Round 2 Predictions

ROUND TWO PREDICTIONS

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 5. Blazers in 5 games

-Spurs are going in the right direction, and the Blazers are playing above their heads and beyond their years. The Spurs’ offense is going to buzzsaw them.

2. Thunder over 3. Clippers in 5 games

-There is no matchup for Westbrook, and that is pretty much the whole problem here. With Chris Paul nicked up, I have no idea how they hope to stop him. Barnes can take Durant a bit, but even that is a bad matchup. Serge can take Blake head to head, so the matchups are all there for the Thunder.

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:

6. Wizards over 1. Pacers in 6 games

-This is about who is playing well right now. Wall is going to dominate George Hill, and Ariza can slow down George. Overall, this is bad time for Indiana to get such a balanced team. I will say, this is a better series for Hibbert to have an impact because Washington plays legitimate front lines. However, Wizard

2. HEAT over 6. Nets in 7 games

-I think the Nets push the Lebrons, I really do. But in the end, this isn’t a realistic end for them. The HEAT are going to be rusty though because they haven’t played impact basketball in a while. It may help Wade a little, but overall I actually think the time off is a negative. Bosh should have a big series here, as will Deron Williams.

Title Prediction:

Spurs are still the best team, but the Thunder are winning the West and the Finals. In the East, I can’t stand with my Pacers pick. It is more than likely that the HEAT get to a 4^th straight Finals.

NBA 2014 Post Season Round 1 Predictions

Okay, this is going to be fun. Well, in the Western Conference at least. Let’s do this:

Western Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Spurs over 8. Mavs in 4.

-The Dallas defense is horrible. Leonard will neutralize Monta and it would take an awesome Dirk performance to even get a win in this series. Whatever the offensive efficiency record is for a series, I think the Spurs threaten it in this warmup.

2. Thunder over 7. Grizzlies in 5.

-I think the absence of Nick Calathes will hurt the Grizzlies more than most think. I have no idea who guards Durant. Or Westbrook actually (I like Mike Conley a lot….but not on Westbrook).

         

3. Clippers over 6. Warriors in 5.

-This is a depth issue more than anything. Oh, and Blake/Jordan are salivating knowing they are getting DLee/Draymond.

4. Rox over 5. Blazers in 5.

-Nice thought, no way. Harden and Dwight ensure a first round win. Blazers are MUCH better next year from the experience.

Easter Conference Playoff Prediction:

1. Pacers over 8. Hawks in 4.

-NBA TV! Respect to the Hawks’ coaching, but no way. The talent disparity is huge here.

2. HEAT over 7. Bobcats in 6.

-I actually like this matchup a bit because Kemba is feisty, Big Al has no counterpart on the other team, and the Bobcats play defense with viable wing defenders. That gets them to a sixth game, not much further.

6. Nets over 3. Raptors in 7.

-Great series. Wish I could pick the Raptors but I just cannot. The Nets have too much veteran acumen.

4. Bulls over 5. Wizards in 6.                  

-Reason number 1, Joakim Noah. Reason number 2, this is the Wizards first rodeo. Reason number 3, Thibs.

Title Prediction:

At this point, I think the Spurs are the best team, bar none. I have the Thunder winning the title because they are the one team the Spurs have a problem with. In the easy, I am going to stay on my preseason Pacers pick. 

2014 MLB Season Preview

This is going to be quick and simple: I believe this is the year of the Ray.

They have been hanging around for about a half decade now. And they got close in 08-10, coming so short of a WS title. And while I think the model is well put together and should ensure sustained success over .500 over the next few of years, this is the “push the chips all in” moment. This is almost definitely David Price’s last year. Combine that maybe one more year of Zobrist’s prime and the ascension of Wil Myers/Matt Moore, and I think this is the breakthrough year.

Team Predictions:

AL East – Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central – Detroit Tigers

AL West – Oakland Athletics

AL Wild Cards – Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals

NL East – Washington Nationals

NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals

NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Wild Cards – Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinatti Reds

ALCS – Rays over Athletics

NLCS – Cardinals over Dodgers

World Series – Rays over Cardinals

I love the pitching of the Cardinals, and that is why I have them going so far here. But, overall the Rays to me are the best team with probably the best managing and tactics. I like Matt Moore and Chris Archer to develop into top of the rotation with a last stand by David Price roaring them to a title.

Individual Awards:

AL MVP: Evan Longoria (I’ve explained this one right? Offense is nice, but leadership and defense matters too). Runner up: Mike Trout

AL Cy Young: David Price. Runner Up: Yu Darvish

AL ROY: Jose Abreu (I love his power potential, especially with that team in Chicago). Runer Up: Xander Boegarts.

NL MVP: Joey Votto. Runner Up: Andrew McCutcheon

NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright. Runner Up: Cliff Lee (Kershaw is on the DL, probably won’t matter that much but I’d rather take a fresh guy off the top).

NL ROY: Archie Bradley. Runner Up: Javier Baez

NFL 2013 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Seahawks +3 over Broncos, 37-14

-The Broncos are wearing orange for the Super Bowl. They are 0-3 in Super Bowls in that outfit. The Seahawks are 2-0 this year in their white top, navy blue bottom road outfits, both times winning by 23 points exactly.

So, obviously the 'Hawks are winning by 23 points, and all is right with the world. Okay, so it will probably be more complicated by that.

Here is the deal: the best comp to this game is the 2002-2003 title game. Defensive monsters Tampa Bay plays Rich Gannon’s cerebral offense and Oakland. Tampa had a really athletic, creatively schemed defense. Rich Gannon was an aging quarterback, considered an offensive genius. He had some limited physical abilities, but overall used his mind and knowledge of schemes to great effect. Denver's receivers are really young while Oakland's were really seasoned, but overall the comparison works. And of course, Tampa Bay romped that Super Bowl with numerous picks and generally causing mayhem with Gannon's timing and productivity. 

Here’s a great stat: there have been 7 teams to set the record for most points in season. All 7 failed to win the title. 2007 Patriots, 1998 Vikings, so many other high scoring teams. Perhaps it is because those teams play 3 games in 5 weeks before the big game and get out of rhythm. Maybe other teams figure out how to better scheme for them. Maybe it is just hard to maintain that pace.

The best player on the field is Manning, it is pretty hard to debate that. The next best 6 players are from Seattle. Sherman, Earl Thomas, Lynch, Bennett, Chancellor, Wilson. Seattle is stacked on each line. They are healthy, getting their only injured player (Harvin) back, reinforcing their only true weakness, WR. WR is the only place Seattle is completely outclassed by Denver, and defending WRs is coincidentally Seattle’s specialty.

Denver takes advantage of matchups. D. Thomas is an athletic freak, but Sherman can stay with him. Decker takes advantage of unorganized second CBs or FSs, but Seattle will stay disciplined with him. Welker won’t find any friendly lanes inside, and the corners and safeties can get to him outside on those rub routes. Julius Thomas kills many matchups like Gronk and Graham do, but we’ve already seen what Seattle does to athletic TEs. Jimmy Graham was barely existent in the SEA-NO game. Both safeties and most of their LBs can detach into coverage and take Julius out of play. Seattle is about to make Denver’s advantage to being a normal matchup at most. And if Seattle has to win this game by stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will take that path willingly.

Denver’s only real major advantage besides QB seems to be on the interior of the defensive line. They match up well against Seattle’s interior line and Knighton should dominate there. But otherwise, the matchups predict a draw or Seattle victory.

The weather either doesn’t affect the game at all, or favors Seattle. There isn’t really a scenario where Denver benefits from the conditions unless it was 70 and sunny with no wind. Believe me, I lived in New York City for 4 years: it won't be 70 and sunny with no wind in February. 

Seattle’s DVOA is so far and away superior to Denver’s, it really puts this game into context. Seattle’s total was 40.1% to Denver’s 32.8%. Denver wins on offense 33.7%to 9.4%, but gets creamed on Defense and Special Teams (25.8% to .2% and 4.8% to -1.1%). And Denver’s special teams regresses some from its already negative value because Prater’s advantage home/road disappears here.

So really, considering the injuries on the Denver O-Line and their shoddy secondary (especially with Harvin returning), and the Seattle advantage on Special Teams, I expect this to be a rout. The 3 points is a free play, and really the +125/+130 is a gift. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 124-72
By Spread: 100-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 663-355
By Spread: 537-470

NFL 2013 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Pats +5 over Broncos, 28-24

-This is purely a function of the points. I originally saw this at 6.5, but obviously people bet that down as quickly as possible. One thing I know for sure…ignore the game they played 8 weeks ago. Gronk, Chris Harris, Von Miller, and quite a few others players aren’t playing now. John Fox, Champ, Blount, and so many others ARE now playing as key cogs and weren’t then.

I was stunned when looking at FootballOutsiders this week though. They have the Pats as a 46% chance to win this game, which is a crazy high number. I thought it was going to be a 60-40 split at best. But the Week 19 DVOA doesn’t lie. NE actually ranks above DEN right now in DVOA, 31.5 to 27.2. A huge advantage is special teams, but they are competent in all three areas.

Look at how the offenses line up. As much as the Pats are beat up on offense, they are playing a strings and spit defense in Denver, who just lost their best corner. The all time scoring leading Denver offense (which barely put up 24 last week) is playing a team with its 3 really good corners back playing together. NE can hold this together, fully execute San Diego’s plan of holding the ball and pushing it down Denver’s throat. Brady over Manning, one more time please. You know, until they get trampled in the Super Bowl by….

Seahawks -3 over Niners, 17-9

-This will probably be a painful, insanely unwatchable game. I think Colin Kaep self destructs. Both GB and CAR had opportunities to make him do so, but couldn’t. This Seattle defense will not allow easy passing. What gets me really ticked is that the SF passing game is really good when throwing to Boldin, Crabtree, or Davis. But that’s it. Literally no one else can do anything. They caught all of the SF touchdowns this year, and Crabtree only had 1! Seattle just won’t allow that kind of focus on a few guys, will take 2 away (probably Sherman-Crabtree, Earl Thomas-Davis, and three guys on Boldin then), and make the Niners sputter here. And I have a feeling Russell Wilson finds the magic here again.

SF is a really healthy advanced stat team, with the best remaining special teams (8.9) and a strong defense (-5.2). But FootballOutsiders makes my case for me: Seattle’s defense is a whopping -29.1. That blows Arizona’s -18.9 out of the water for second place, and they are a far distance from third. I had Seattle winning the whole thing in August, and I am staying on that train. I have to think the NFC is winning regardless though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 123-71
By Spread: 99-96

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 662-354
By Spread: 536-469