NFL 2014 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Week 21 Predictions: Superbowl Sunday

Pats -2 over the Seahawks, 24-20

-I had the Saints over the Patriots in the Preseason. Essentially what the Packers actually were this year is what the Saints were in my head in August. If the Packers were here in the Superbowl, I’d be taking them. They proved they could beat the Patriots, and with two weeks for Rodgers’ leg to heal, I think they would have done it again. However, this matchup ended up being totally different from the outline I had in my head. But first, before anything, I want to return here:

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-most-successful-franchise-in-sports.html

I wrote that almost two years ago, my favorite piece ever. It was a comparison piece on the Spurs and Patriots (defensive years turned to offense, Duncan and Brady, Pop and Belichick, new X Factors in Kawhi and Gronk). At the end, I set the over under at 2.5 Spurs/Pats titles from that point forward. Well, I am going to cheat and give the Spurs 1.5 titles over the last 2 years (that one Ray Allen 3….ughhhhh). The Pats can make me prophetic right here and now by giving me the 2.5 titles since I wrote that.

Let’s clear Deflategate , shall we? I don’t have any idea how this will affect them. Let’s examine two “Patriots are facing off field controversy and media scrutiny” results:

In 2007, early in the season the Pats were punished as a part of the Spygate incident. They would lose public face, a draft pick, and a decent chunk of money. Of course, they ran off a 16-0 record while putting up 38-38-38-34-34-48-49-52 points in the next 8 weeks following the punishment. I think they responded just fine to that incident in the short term in terms of game performance. The long term was of course, they lost the Super Bowl and then Tom Brady for a year due to a knee injury.

In 2003, the Pats released beloved Safety Lawyer Milloy a few days before the season started in a strange move that seemed to relate to money. He jumped directly to the Bills, the Pats’ week 1 opponent, who then beat the Pats on opening day 31-0. The distraction actually hurt in the short term for game performance. Of course, the Pats then went 17-1 the rest of the season and won the Super Bowl.

So, I have no idea. Anyone who tells you that the team will wither under the scrutiny and not show up Sunday is confused. Anyone who tells you it will galvanize the team and result in a blowout of Seattle is also confused. We don’t know, and it is more likely it will have little effect on the game. As many have pointed out, despite popular opinion, momentum does not exist. It is an idea we manufacture to tell our stories and is retrospective. These players already have emotion and investment in the game. It is the Super Bowl.

So, let’s actually look at the matchup. Football Outsiders has this as pretty much a toss-up, which is fairly stunning. It isn’t that I don’t believe in toss-ups, especially on a neutral field, but it is fairly rare in the Super Bowl. The game last year as you will remember,

http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2014/01/nfl-2013-week-21-predictions-super-bowl.html

was one in which I predicted a Seahawks victory by a big score due to the unseen inequities in the matchup. Football Outsiders saw the edge for the Seahawks and so did I. But this year, FO has these opponents at a dead heat (weighted DVOA is Pats 39.8%, Seattle 38.8%, insignificant statistically). Check out this article for the best breakdown I’ve seen so far:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2015/week-20-dvoa-ratings

I agree with the advanced stats guys again: this game is really close. Both teams have shut down, awesome secondaries. Both teams have underwhelming possession and short to medium route running receivers that basically make those secondaries loss their normal impact. Simmons said it in his column that both teams have been built to stop the new age crazy strong passing attacks. In some ways, it worked because both teams defeated those kinds of teams to get here. But, they end up staring at mirrors of each other in that area.

Both teams have underwhelming offensive lines. However, the Pats barely have a pass rush. Seattle does have a decent one, but it is inferior to last year’s version, especially in the middle of the line. The Pats will also use multiple TE sets and 6 OL at times to diffuse that issue.

The Pats have the biggest mismatch at TE in the league. While the Seahawks do have only the 18^th best defense on TEs, it is in the top 10 when Chancellor/Thomas/Wagner are all on the field. They will be on SBS and Seattle is literally the only team I am convinced COULD stop Gronk completely without sacrificing a major other part of their defense. They may still fall to that matchup, but they CAN make a good attempt at trying to negate that advantage.

The Lynch matchup is interesting. The Pats are the 28^th best team at stopping teams in the backfield. They literally don’t try to do that. However, they are the 7^th best at stopping backs once they cross the line of scrimmage. They basically say, “here, go ahead and get three yards. We will let you do that as many times as you want. Eventually you will screw up, fall, hit a blocker, pick the wrong hole. We will bring 4 guys to tackle you and ensure you will never get a 40 yard TD”. And that system works for the most part. Even bad games against Ivory and Forsett this season was them getting small chunks at or under 10 yards, not more. I think they do the same with Lynch. They won’t miss tackles on him in the backfield because they will make him get through 3 guys 3 yards into the play. He probably has a solid game but I don’t think the Pats let him kill them.

I see three areas that make me feel good about the Pats overall and it swung my prediction:

1. 6.1% special teams DVOA versus -2.4% for Seattle. I think a special teams moment is happening somewhere here for the Pats. Edelman punt return, something.

2. Seattle hasn’t played a truly good and healthy QB in months. They lost to Romo and Austin Davis (that happened) and then beat Cam, Carr, Eli, lost to Alex Smith, beat Drew Stanton, Kaep twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, Cam again, and an injured Aaron Rodgers. We might be reminded of this lack of true test for Seattle Sunday because the Pats have Tom Freaking Brady.

3. I always believe in Belichick after two weeks to prepare. Didn’t help in the last two Super Bowls, but 11-3 in the regular season after byes and 11-3 for two week layoffs in the playoffs (counting first round byes and SB prep weeks) is an absurd 22-6 record when this team is given two weeks rest/prep.

Oh, and I want to factor in that the Seahawks have three banged up secondary players (Kam tweaked a knee at the end of Friday’s practice).

I can’t get the picture of Roger Goodell having to hand the trophy over to Kraft out of my head. That would be too great to not have happen at this point. So come on Pats, make that moment happen.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-0

By Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 137-75

By Spread: 111-99

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 802-430
By Spread: 649-569

NFL 2013 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Seahawks +3 over Broncos, 37-14

-The Broncos are wearing orange for the Super Bowl. They are 0-3 in Super Bowls in that outfit. The Seahawks are 2-0 this year in their white top, navy blue bottom road outfits, both times winning by 23 points exactly.

So, obviously the 'Hawks are winning by 23 points, and all is right with the world. Okay, so it will probably be more complicated by that.

Here is the deal: the best comp to this game is the 2002-2003 title game. Defensive monsters Tampa Bay plays Rich Gannon’s cerebral offense and Oakland. Tampa had a really athletic, creatively schemed defense. Rich Gannon was an aging quarterback, considered an offensive genius. He had some limited physical abilities, but overall used his mind and knowledge of schemes to great effect. Denver's receivers are really young while Oakland's were really seasoned, but overall the comparison works. And of course, Tampa Bay romped that Super Bowl with numerous picks and generally causing mayhem with Gannon's timing and productivity. 

Here’s a great stat: there have been 7 teams to set the record for most points in season. All 7 failed to win the title. 2007 Patriots, 1998 Vikings, so many other high scoring teams. Perhaps it is because those teams play 3 games in 5 weeks before the big game and get out of rhythm. Maybe other teams figure out how to better scheme for them. Maybe it is just hard to maintain that pace.

The best player on the field is Manning, it is pretty hard to debate that. The next best 6 players are from Seattle. Sherman, Earl Thomas, Lynch, Bennett, Chancellor, Wilson. Seattle is stacked on each line. They are healthy, getting their only injured player (Harvin) back, reinforcing their only true weakness, WR. WR is the only place Seattle is completely outclassed by Denver, and defending WRs is coincidentally Seattle’s specialty.

Denver takes advantage of matchups. D. Thomas is an athletic freak, but Sherman can stay with him. Decker takes advantage of unorganized second CBs or FSs, but Seattle will stay disciplined with him. Welker won’t find any friendly lanes inside, and the corners and safeties can get to him outside on those rub routes. Julius Thomas kills many matchups like Gronk and Graham do, but we’ve already seen what Seattle does to athletic TEs. Jimmy Graham was barely existent in the SEA-NO game. Both safeties and most of their LBs can detach into coverage and take Julius out of play. Seattle is about to make Denver’s advantage to being a normal matchup at most. And if Seattle has to win this game by stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will take that path willingly.

Denver’s only real major advantage besides QB seems to be on the interior of the defensive line. They match up well against Seattle’s interior line and Knighton should dominate there. But otherwise, the matchups predict a draw or Seattle victory.

The weather either doesn’t affect the game at all, or favors Seattle. There isn’t really a scenario where Denver benefits from the conditions unless it was 70 and sunny with no wind. Believe me, I lived in New York City for 4 years: it won't be 70 and sunny with no wind in February. 

Seattle’s DVOA is so far and away superior to Denver’s, it really puts this game into context. Seattle’s total was 40.1% to Denver’s 32.8%. Denver wins on offense 33.7%to 9.4%, but gets creamed on Defense and Special Teams (25.8% to .2% and 4.8% to -1.1%). And Denver’s special teams regresses some from its already negative value because Prater’s advantage home/road disappears here.

So really, considering the injuries on the Denver O-Line and their shoddy secondary (especially with Harvin returning), and the Seattle advantage on Special Teams, I expect this to be a rout. The 3 points is a free play, and really the +125/+130 is a gift. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 124-72
By Spread: 100-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 663-355
By Spread: 537-470

NFL 2013 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Pats +5 over Broncos, 28-24

-This is purely a function of the points. I originally saw this at 6.5, but obviously people bet that down as quickly as possible. One thing I know for sure…ignore the game they played 8 weeks ago. Gronk, Chris Harris, Von Miller, and quite a few others players aren’t playing now. John Fox, Champ, Blount, and so many others ARE now playing as key cogs and weren’t then.

I was stunned when looking at FootballOutsiders this week though. They have the Pats as a 46% chance to win this game, which is a crazy high number. I thought it was going to be a 60-40 split at best. But the Week 19 DVOA doesn’t lie. NE actually ranks above DEN right now in DVOA, 31.5 to 27.2. A huge advantage is special teams, but they are competent in all three areas.

Look at how the offenses line up. As much as the Pats are beat up on offense, they are playing a strings and spit defense in Denver, who just lost their best corner. The all time scoring leading Denver offense (which barely put up 24 last week) is playing a team with its 3 really good corners back playing together. NE can hold this together, fully execute San Diego’s plan of holding the ball and pushing it down Denver’s throat. Brady over Manning, one more time please. You know, until they get trampled in the Super Bowl by….

Seahawks -3 over Niners, 17-9

-This will probably be a painful, insanely unwatchable game. I think Colin Kaep self destructs. Both GB and CAR had opportunities to make him do so, but couldn’t. This Seattle defense will not allow easy passing. What gets me really ticked is that the SF passing game is really good when throwing to Boldin, Crabtree, or Davis. But that’s it. Literally no one else can do anything. They caught all of the SF touchdowns this year, and Crabtree only had 1! Seattle just won’t allow that kind of focus on a few guys, will take 2 away (probably Sherman-Crabtree, Earl Thomas-Davis, and three guys on Boldin then), and make the Niners sputter here. And I have a feeling Russell Wilson finds the magic here again.

SF is a really healthy advanced stat team, with the best remaining special teams (8.9) and a strong defense (-5.2). But FootballOutsiders makes my case for me: Seattle’s defense is a whopping -29.1. That blows Arizona’s -18.9 out of the water for second place, and they are a far distance from third. I had Seattle winning the whole thing in August, and I am staying on that train. I have to think the NFC is winning regardless though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 123-71
By Spread: 99-96

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 662-354
By Spread: 536-469

NFL 2013 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Saints +8 over Seahawks, 20-24

-Too many points, but a probable Seahawks victory. They did this dance last month, and this isn’t one of those games where the Saints learn from the first and do it differently. They just got dominated. And probably will be again, but have a slightly closer result. The rain keeps the scoring down a bit.

Colts +7.5 over Patriots, 24-31

-This is just way too many points. Trying to overcome my regional bias, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts win this game. But definitely, I am taking the 7.5. The Pats’ argument is constructed of the fact that they are 6-1 coming off the bye at home, and the only loss was to that wonky 2009 Jets team. The Colts will not be playing that style, and Belichick can scheme around even the Colts’ explosiveness. Though, Adam Vin is involved and that makes me really nervous.

49ers pk over Panthers, 16-13

-The 49ers were the original. The Panthers are a new fangled remix. Sometimes that’s good. But this is more of a Jordan-Kobe relationship. And while Kobe’s good, he ain’t Jordan. Kobe could get him sometimes in 1:1, but I think the Niners still get this one.

Chargers +10 over Broncos, 24-23

-I just…I don’t know…I want it to be…the time of possession stat….wind…Manning is under .500 in the playoffs….someone is getting upset this weekend….I don’t even know anymore.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 1-3

Record this year:
Straight Up: 120-70
By Spread: 97-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 659-353
By Spread: 534-468

NFL 2013 Week 16 Predictions

Texans +10.5 over Broncos, 21-31

-Just a covering situation. The Broncos have this swish cheese defense right now that probably keeps the Texans in the game.

Fins -2.5 over Bills,

-I believe in the 6^th seed bound Miami Dolphins. And I believe in Ryan Tannehill.

Bengals -8.5 over Vikings,

-8.5 is a lot. I feel dirty. Giovani Bernard has a big game here though.

Saints +3 over Panthers, 27-26

-Just taking the points. The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I think they burst the Panthers’ bubble again here.

Jags +5 over Titans, 20-16

-What is so different about these teams that there is a 5 point line, IN Jacksonville? I believe in Gus Bradley, and every game without Mojo is actually a good thing for Jacksonville at this point.

Seahawks -10.5 over Cards, 34-6

-Love the Cards, but not with all these injuries. I’m sitting every Cardinal I have because this is probably going to get ugly.

Lions -9.5 over Giants, 30-17

-Giants are done, and as bad as the Lions have been lately, they need this game. It is go time. If the Lions don’t win this, it’s over for them.

Pats +2.5 over Ravens, 21-20

-Pats getting points versus a team that may not have Rice or Flacco? I’ll just take them and know I’m covering.

Chargers -10 over Raiders, 31-13

-Such a bad defense, and the Chargers need this.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Packers -2.5 over Steelers, 24-21

-A team that needs it versus a team that does not.

49ers -13.5 over Falcons, 20-6

-The Falcons need to actively be trying to lose, and this should be accomplished by halftime here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:
Straight Up: 102-61
By Spread: 84-80

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 641-344
By Spread: 521-453

NFL 2013 Week 14 Predictions

Bills +3 over Bucs, 19-17

-Two bad teams with potential, so a FG seems right. That’s one road FG underdog I am taking this week….

Pats -11 over Browns, 30-16

-Who’s playing QB for the Browns? And at home too?

Lions +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I truly believe the Lions are better. And odds are sooner or later Foles throws that first pick (that isn’t called back on a stupid penalty). This is the second time I am taking a FG underdog on the road.

Colts +6.5 over Bengals, 20-22

-Just too many points for an Andrew Luck team.

Chiefs -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-17

-As Bill Simmons pointed out in his Cousin Sal podcast, the Chiefs’ winning this week means that they clinch the 5 seed and can rest the remaining part of the regular season. Weird.

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Third time here I am taking the FG over a home team, but in close games what choice do I have?

Ravens -7 over Vikings, 20-12

-Vikings should be ashamed of themselves, going 1-0-1 the last few weeks. They will start to lose soon, as they should.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders +3 over Jets, 17-3

-Make that four times….

Broncos -11.5 over Titans, 31-14

-Don’t like it, but I am taking the layup.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Giants +3 over Chargers, 27-26

-Make that five times….

Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 16-13

-Make that six times…..Seattle is just better

Rams +6 over Cards, 13-17

-Reports of Palmer possibly not playing are making me nervous.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 89-51
By Spread: 75-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 628-334
By Spread: 512-439

NFL 2012 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Time for the annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoff picks. Good luck everyone.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Week 18: Wild Card Weekend

Bengals +4.5 over Houston, 23-19

-Calling the pure upset. Houston is in free fall, its star RB looks worn out and may have a heart problem, and its QB is playing horribly right now. It wouldn’t surprise me if I found out that Matt Schaub was hiding a major arm injury, because he clearly isn’t the same guy. AJ Green is going to torch the Texans. I trust in him as a top 5 game changer at his position. Like Calvin, AJ can bust a game open even if the QB isn't on. But Geno Atkins especially makes me scared to go against the Bengals here. I think he dominates as he has done all season. Finally this is revenge for the Bengals. They still feel like they could have won last year versus TJ freaking Yates, and everything is setup for them to finally do so now.

Colts +6.5 over Ravens, 24-19

-I really believe that the Colts will upset the Ravens this weekend. I predicted it weeks ago. I have a friend that can attest to this fact. And for those claiming Chuckstrong is counteracted by Ray Lewis's return/retirement news, stop. Lewis already has his announcing gig lined up, clearly has his mind elsewhere now. He isn't that good anymore anyways. The Colts are riding high and coming in with good vibes from their win over the Texans, a game they didn’t need and the Texans did. The Ravens will have trouble with Wayne and even Ballard. While it is true Flacco tends to get better in the playoffs, his general inconsistency scares me. And somehow, despite Ray Rice having the potential to run all over Indy, I think he gets a strong lack of carries. BAL key guard Yanda either won’t play or will be playing hurt. Luck is really good and has that special something, kind of Big Ben esch, and I think they move on. So ends an era from Raven football.

Packers -7.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-I know the purple men from northern Europe just won this matchup last week, but that was different. The Viks were at home, and the Pack were playing for seeding, not their playoff lives. Big difference. Last week featured both a strong multi TD game from Rodgers and a 200 yard game from Peterson with no big runs. Guess which situation I find more replicable? Packers are also getting Woodson and Cobb back, and will unleash Matthews full force. Finally, it is pretty much impossible for Tramon Williams to be that bad again. However, it is fully possible for Christian Ponder to be much much worse than he was. Green Bay is my pick to go to the Super Bowl from NFC, and nothing in this game is going to distract me from that.

Seahawks -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 26-17

-It should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I am taking the Seahawks over the Ethnic Slurs. In a battle of rookie quarterbacks with a style I don't particularly like, I will take the quiet inconsistent leadership of Russell Wilson over the hobbled and overly simplified offense of RG3. However, the truth is the difference in this matchup will probably come mostly come from the vast disparity in their defensive secondaries. Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner should easily dominate their matchups and cause Griffin to have the biggest problems in his young career.  On the other side however, the WAS defense, held together by sticks, glue, and strong play calling, will finally be exposed for its lack of talent. This is mainly due to injury and isn’t their fault, but is just the truth. It will not matter that Seattle is on the road.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 141-75

By Spread: 110-100

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 530-272
By Spread: 435-373