NFL 2014 Week 8 Predictions

Week 8 Predictions

Lions -3.5 over Falcons, 24-13

-The Falcons are not very good, so this really doesn’t depend on Calvin being back or not.

Seahawks -6 over Panthers, 28-20

-The Seahawks won’t lose two in a row, especially to such a mediocre team.

Ravens -1 over Bengals, 24-14

-The Bengals are in a tailspin and the Ravens are a legit team.

Fins -6 over Jags, 31-17

-Jags got their win, but it won’t be two in a row. The Fins should put up some strong offensive numbers in this game.

Pats -6 over Bears, 28-20

-Weird line numbers, feels like more of a 3 point game. The Bears just aren’t quite right right now.

Rams +7 over Chiefs, 21-20

Rams are fiester than many are giving them credit for. They have won the majority of their last eight quarters of football…and those were against the Niners and Seahawks.

Bills +3 over Jets, 21-13

-I don’t understand why this line is favoring the 1-6 Jets over 4-3 Bills. I don’t get it. Take the free points.

Texans -3 over Titans, 20-13

-I actually think the Titans have more pieces than most folks would give them credit for, but they are starting a rookie QB. Tough to ride that over the experience the Texans bring.

Cards -2.5 over Eagles, 24-21

Really a clash of two philosophies, but the Cards have the downfield passing attack too. I have backed my Cards for about 2 years now, and am not jumping off now.

Raiders +7 over Browns, 20-23

-Just cover baby.

Colts -3 over Steelers, 26-21

-Steelers were surprisingly effective last week but overall these are two teams going in the wrong direction.

Cowboys -10 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-10

-Boring, but I am taking the layup here.

Packers +2.5 over Saints, 37-24

-Someone how I am getting points here. I love my Saints, but they have killed me all season and the Packers are heating up.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 53-32

By Spread: 42-41

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 719-387
By Spread: 580-511

NFL 2014 Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs, 30-17

-Even with Roddy out, this should be an easy win.

Chargers +2.5 over Bills, 27-19

-I neither fully understand nor believe in the Bills so far. I’ll take Rivers over Manuel.

Ravens -1.5 over Browns, 20-17

-Browns have worked really hard so far, but they don’t have enough here. Ravens might be a solid little team. That close loss to the Bengals looks much better in retrospect because the Bengals may be awesome.

Bengals -7 over Titans, 23-14

-Titans’ offense looked like a mess last week. The Bengals might be the best team in the league in the trenches.

Packers +2.5 over Lions, 37-34

-I have a rule. If the Packers are decent, have Aaron Rodgers, and they are getting points, you take it.

Colts -7 over Jags, 27-13

-Luck isn’t going 0-3, and he really isn’t going 0-3 versus the Jags.

Pats -14 over Raiders, 37-20

-Love Derek Carr, but I’m not stupid. This is probably another good game for special teams/defense/intangibles for the Pats. I like this team. It reminds me of the 2003-2004 Pats’ teams, with a well rounded roster.

Saints -10 over Vikings, 40-16

-I’m legitimately excited. Saints are going to EXPLODE.

Texans -2 over Giants, 19-16

-Not a vote of confidence in the Texans. I just dislike the Giants this much.

Eagles -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 30-20

-I like you Kirk, but not this much. The Eagles’ offense is too good.

Cards +3 over 49ers, 20-18

-I mean, maybe? I don’t trust Kaep and continue to love the Cards for some reason.

Fins -4 over Chiefs, 24-17

-Chiefs weren’t that good and are now hurt. Tannehill plays really well here.

Panthers -3 over Steelers, 20-10

-I still don’t believe in the Panthers and won’t even after they stomp all over Pittsburgh.

Seahawks -5 over Broncos, 31-13

-This happened recently, right? It worked out for me then. The Broncos had a decent chance at this….but then the Seahawks lost last week. It is in Seattle, and the Broncos look human so far.

Bears +3.5 over Jets, 20-19

-I am not convinced the Jets should be giving points to anyone right now. Cutler should light them up.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 3-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 14-11

By Spread: 10-15

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 678-366
By Spread: 548-485

2014 NFL Season Preview

2014 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

AFC East – Patriots

-Boring I know, but this team is loaded, only the Dolphins are really threatening, and the schedule seemingly has broken nicely for the Pats. 12-13 wins easy, and the top seed in the AFC.

AFC North – Bengals

-Dominant lines, explosive playmakers, and troublesome issues for each of the division mates.

AFC South – Colts

-Luck. Locker. Fitzpatrick. Bortles. Let’s move along.

AFC West – Broncos

-Boring like the Pats, but makes the most sense. 11 wins easy. The West will better than people think so.

Wild Cards: Dolphins and Chargers

-Tannehill takes a step forward, and the Chargers remain offensively efficient while improving the pass defense.

AFC Championship – Patriots over Colts

NFC East – Eagles

-The Eagles are the most complete team. The Giants have little talent, the Ethnic Slurs have a bad defense, and the Cowboys are the Cowboys and destined to be 8-8.

NFC North – Packers

-This is a loaded division; the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers. They dominate the divisional matchups and maximize their most balanced offense in years.

NFC South – Saints

-I love this Saints team. They have a much better defense than they have had in past years, and Cooks evens out the offense. They get 13 wins and the top overall seed.

NFC West – Seahawks

-Tough break for the 49ers again, but Seattle gets

Wild Cards: Lions and Bears

-Both good teams, both would win just about any other division but are stuck with the Packers.

NFC Championship – Saints over Packers

-Quite a shootout, but the Saints have more balance and home field matters here.

Superbowl: Saints over Patriots

-I want to pick the Pats because of their improvements on defense, but the Saints have the look to me.

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-He is the best player, and will have the best statistical season efficiency wise. Manning will regress, and Brees/Brady have their most talented defenses in years so won’t press as much.

OPY: Drew Brees

-6000 yards and 60 Touchdowns is in play. You heard me.

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-He is a machine.

ORY: Brandin Cook

-He is going to have a crazy weird statline. I think 60 catches for 1150 yards and 10 TDs is in play.

DRY: Jadeveon Clowney

-What a monster. And he is getting single teamed because of Watt!

COY: Sean Payton

-General Saints dominance.

NFL 2013 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Pats +5 over Broncos, 28-24

-This is purely a function of the points. I originally saw this at 6.5, but obviously people bet that down as quickly as possible. One thing I know for sure…ignore the game they played 8 weeks ago. Gronk, Chris Harris, Von Miller, and quite a few others players aren’t playing now. John Fox, Champ, Blount, and so many others ARE now playing as key cogs and weren’t then.

I was stunned when looking at FootballOutsiders this week though. They have the Pats as a 46% chance to win this game, which is a crazy high number. I thought it was going to be a 60-40 split at best. But the Week 19 DVOA doesn’t lie. NE actually ranks above DEN right now in DVOA, 31.5 to 27.2. A huge advantage is special teams, but they are competent in all three areas.

Look at how the offenses line up. As much as the Pats are beat up on offense, they are playing a strings and spit defense in Denver, who just lost their best corner. The all time scoring leading Denver offense (which barely put up 24 last week) is playing a team with its 3 really good corners back playing together. NE can hold this together, fully execute San Diego’s plan of holding the ball and pushing it down Denver’s throat. Brady over Manning, one more time please. You know, until they get trampled in the Super Bowl by….

Seahawks -3 over Niners, 17-9

-This will probably be a painful, insanely unwatchable game. I think Colin Kaep self destructs. Both GB and CAR had opportunities to make him do so, but couldn’t. This Seattle defense will not allow easy passing. What gets me really ticked is that the SF passing game is really good when throwing to Boldin, Crabtree, or Davis. But that’s it. Literally no one else can do anything. They caught all of the SF touchdowns this year, and Crabtree only had 1! Seattle just won’t allow that kind of focus on a few guys, will take 2 away (probably Sherman-Crabtree, Earl Thomas-Davis, and three guys on Boldin then), and make the Niners sputter here. And I have a feeling Russell Wilson finds the magic here again.

SF is a really healthy advanced stat team, with the best remaining special teams (8.9) and a strong defense (-5.2). But FootballOutsiders makes my case for me: Seattle’s defense is a whopping -29.1. That blows Arizona’s -18.9 out of the water for second place, and they are a far distance from third. I had Seattle winning the whole thing in August, and I am staying on that train. I have to think the NFC is winning regardless though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 123-71
By Spread: 99-96

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 662-354
By Spread: 536-469

NFL 2013 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Saints +8 over Seahawks, 20-24

-Too many points, but a probable Seahawks victory. They did this dance last month, and this isn’t one of those games where the Saints learn from the first and do it differently. They just got dominated. And probably will be again, but have a slightly closer result. The rain keeps the scoring down a bit.

Colts +7.5 over Patriots, 24-31

-This is just way too many points. Trying to overcome my regional bias, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts win this game. But definitely, I am taking the 7.5. The Pats’ argument is constructed of the fact that they are 6-1 coming off the bye at home, and the only loss was to that wonky 2009 Jets team. The Colts will not be playing that style, and Belichick can scheme around even the Colts’ explosiveness. Though, Adam Vin is involved and that makes me really nervous.

49ers pk over Panthers, 16-13

-The 49ers were the original. The Panthers are a new fangled remix. Sometimes that’s good. But this is more of a Jordan-Kobe relationship. And while Kobe’s good, he ain’t Jordan. Kobe could get him sometimes in 1:1, but I think the Niners still get this one.

Chargers +10 over Broncos, 24-23

-I just…I don’t know…I want it to be…the time of possession stat….wind…Manning is under .500 in the playoffs….someone is getting upset this weekend….I don’t even know anymore.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 1-3

Record this year:
Straight Up: 120-70
By Spread: 97-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 659-353
By Spread: 534-468

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465

NFL 2013 Week 16 Predictions

Texans +10.5 over Broncos, 21-31

-Just a covering situation. The Broncos have this swish cheese defense right now that probably keeps the Texans in the game.

Fins -2.5 over Bills,

-I believe in the 6^th seed bound Miami Dolphins. And I believe in Ryan Tannehill.

Bengals -8.5 over Vikings,

-8.5 is a lot. I feel dirty. Giovani Bernard has a big game here though.

Saints +3 over Panthers, 27-26

-Just taking the points. The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I think they burst the Panthers’ bubble again here.

Jags +5 over Titans, 20-16

-What is so different about these teams that there is a 5 point line, IN Jacksonville? I believe in Gus Bradley, and every game without Mojo is actually a good thing for Jacksonville at this point.

Seahawks -10.5 over Cards, 34-6

-Love the Cards, but not with all these injuries. I’m sitting every Cardinal I have because this is probably going to get ugly.

Lions -9.5 over Giants, 30-17

-Giants are done, and as bad as the Lions have been lately, they need this game. It is go time. If the Lions don’t win this, it’s over for them.

Pats +2.5 over Ravens, 21-20

-Pats getting points versus a team that may not have Rice or Flacco? I’ll just take them and know I’m covering.

Chargers -10 over Raiders, 31-13

-Such a bad defense, and the Chargers need this.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Packers -2.5 over Steelers, 24-21

-A team that needs it versus a team that does not.

49ers -13.5 over Falcons, 20-6

-The Falcons need to actively be trying to lose, and this should be accomplished by halftime here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:
Straight Up: 102-61
By Spread: 84-80

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 641-344
By Spread: 521-453

NFL 2013 Week 14 Predictions

Bills +3 over Bucs, 19-17

-Two bad teams with potential, so a FG seems right. That’s one road FG underdog I am taking this week….

Pats -11 over Browns, 30-16

-Who’s playing QB for the Browns? And at home too?

Lions +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I truly believe the Lions are better. And odds are sooner or later Foles throws that first pick (that isn’t called back on a stupid penalty). This is the second time I am taking a FG underdog on the road.

Colts +6.5 over Bengals, 20-22

-Just too many points for an Andrew Luck team.

Chiefs -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-17

-As Bill Simmons pointed out in his Cousin Sal podcast, the Chiefs’ winning this week means that they clinch the 5 seed and can rest the remaining part of the regular season. Weird.

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Third time here I am taking the FG over a home team, but in close games what choice do I have?

Ravens -7 over Vikings, 20-12

-Vikings should be ashamed of themselves, going 1-0-1 the last few weeks. They will start to lose soon, as they should.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders +3 over Jets, 17-3

-Make that four times….

Broncos -11.5 over Titans, 31-14

-Don’t like it, but I am taking the layup.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Giants +3 over Chargers, 27-26

-Make that five times….

Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 16-13

-Make that six times…..Seattle is just better

Rams +6 over Cards, 13-17

-Reports of Palmer possibly not playing are making me nervous.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 89-51
By Spread: 75-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 628-334
By Spread: 512-439

NFL 2013 Week 13 Predictions

Lions -6 over Packers, 31-20

-SO excited this is under 7. Megatron is going to put up NUMBERS here.

Cowboys -9 over Raiders, 30-13

-Raiders are not very good, and the Cowboys are finally on the right track here.

Chiefs +6.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-Taking the points. I think the Chiefs have learned from some hurdles the last two weeks, while the Broncos just are falling back to normality.

Colts -4 over Titans, 24-16

-This will be the last week I keep the faith in Luck. I won’t go against him the rest of the year if this goes badly, but I won’t be on the train either.

Bucs +9.5 over Panthers, 20-24

-Purely a cover situation, both teams are now actually playing decently.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 21-20

-Carson Palmer is like an untrustworthy exGF. It is a bad idea to trust them again, you wince, you try not to, and somehow you decide to do it again. Carson…this is your last chance. Don’t betray my trust.

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 24-12

-I trust Tannehill. I don’t trust Geno. I trust Rex not to smartly play Simms over Geno. Questions?

49ers -7.5 over Rams, 24-6

-I don’t like the Niners. But I REALLY don’t like the Cunningham/Klemens-led Rams here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -8 over Texans, 38-17

-I am SO excited. Can someone say “tease with the Lions/Packers game”?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Bengals +2.5 over Chargers, 31-23

-Bengals should light up that horrid defense, right?

Giants -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-Oh, YEAH!

Saints +6.5 over Seahawks, 30-31

-Just cover. And the Seahawks have kept losing cornerbacks like crazy. Don’t be surprised if the Saints just pull this out. Still, I wouldn’t go out on a limb against the Seahawks at home.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-5

By Spread: 6-4

Record this year:
Straight Up: 79-49
By Spread: 68-61

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 618-332
By Spread: 505-434

NFL 2013 Week 12 Predictions

Panthers -4.5 over Dolphins, 26-14

-A lot of letdown potential, but they should handle the Dolphins.

Jags +10.5 over Texans, 14-17

-The Texans don’t get 10 points over anyone right now.

Vikings +4.5 over Packers, 20-21

-Tolzien makes terrified.

Ravens -3.5 over Jets, 20-11

-Ravens are a better team, the Jets are mostly smoke and mirrors.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Chargers +4.5 over Chiefs, 23-24

-Just because they play teams close every single time.

Lions -9.5 over Bucs, 31-21

-MEGATRON.

Colts +3.5 over Cards, 20-19

-Andrew Luck for the rest of his career, when given points, is going to be an automatic play for me. It just became a rule.

Giants PK over Cowboys, 37-34

-Oh boy.

Patriots +2.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Broncos are probably the safter bet, but I’m going with a combination of “Brady is 9-4 versus Manning, the Pats don’t lose at home, the Pats don’t lose two in a row, the Pats are insulted to be home dogs” kicking in for this game.

49ers -4.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-13

-Damn, I can’t pick against the 49ers this week because they play the other team I think the public overvalues. Kaep might actually have a good passing day here. This might be painful to watch.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-4
By Spread: 5-5

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 75-44
By Spread: 62-57

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 614-327
By Spread: 499-430

NFL 2013 Week 11 Predictions

Eagles -4 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-21

-Foles and Desean Jackson are awesome plays here in weekly leagues.

Cards -9.5 over Jags, 24-13

-Is it safe to guarantee a defensive touchdown? Well, I’m doing it anyways.

Bengals -6 over Browns, 20-10

-Bengals are limping but still a decent team. I think.

Lions -1 over Steelers, 35-14

Hasn’t happened since 1955, but it is happening this year. Lions win in the Steel City. Megatron goes OFF.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick.

Chargers -1 over Dolphins, 27-20

-Chargers are the better team. Also, they haven’t recently lost two linemen to bullying issues.

Giants -4.5 over Packers, 24-14

-Weird. But I guess this is where I am going?

Seahawks -12 over Vikings, 30-9

-Struggling to see any scenario where the Vikings can win. Or come close. Or should even show up.

-Best Eliminator Pick.

Saints -3.5 over 49ers, 31-16

-Saints aren’t losing this game at home. And 49ers aren’t that great. And Brees has a monstrous day.

Chiefs +9.5 over Broncos, 27-24

-Chiefs are ready to go, they have all these exciting plays ready to go that they’ve been hoarding, and they are going to throw everything in the world at Peyton’s knees/ankles.

Patriots +1.5 over Panthers, 24-16

-Pats will struggle to get 24, but that 24 will be more than the Panthers can muster. Plus the Panthers get the “week after someone plays the Seahawks or Niners they are too beat up to compete physically” after effect.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-4
By Spread: 6-3

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 69-40
By Spread: 57-52

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 608-323
By Spread: 494-425

NFL 2013 Week 10 Predictions

Steelers -3 over Bills, 24-20

-Ends Buffalo’s season, pretty much.

Bengals -1 over Ravens, 24-20

-I think we know who both teams are, even without Geno Adkins.

Lions pk over Bears, 31-23

-Bears are actually a good team, but the Lions are losing this being both healthier and coming off a bye. Megatron will have a huge game as usual. And I’m not sure Cutler coming back is a good thing.

Titans -12.5 over Jags, 27-12

-Yeah, this could be bad.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -5 over Falcons, 30-23

-I think the Seahawks get the offense on track here, and the Falcons complete the “completely and irrevocably fall apart” they started versus the Panthers.

Colts -9.5 over Rams, 27-14

-TY Hilton. I wouldn’t heavily bet on this cover, but it is probably an easy win straight up.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Panthers +6.5 over 49ers, 26-31

-Just cover please.

Chargers and Broncos….OVER

Cards -1 over Texans,

-Texans season is over, they know it, and the Case Keenum dream run must end. It probably does so against the NFL’s best defense. You heard me, the NFL’s best defense. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-9-dvoa-ratings

Saints -7 over Cowboys, 41-29

-The Saints lost last week. They play in a dome this week. They score a LOT of points. Questions?

Don’t touch Miami-Tampa with a ten foot pole.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6
By Spread: 4-9

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 64-36
By Spread: 51-49

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 598-315
By Spread: 494-425