NFL 2014 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Packers +7.5 over Seahawks, 24-30

-If this goes near 6 or 5.5, jump on Seattle. 7.5 points is just disrespectful. I love Aaron Rodgers, best player in football this side of JJ Watt. But Seattle is on another level and wins this game outright. Wilson continues his unreal run and Seattle physically beats the hell out of Green Bay on both sides of the ball.

Pats -7 over Colts, 38-24

-Luck is great, but it isn’t time yet. He has progressed from the WC round to the divisional round to the championship round over the last three years. It stops here, on schedule. The Pats know this formula, and unlike the Broncos can execute it: run it and kill them with TEs in the middle of the field. The RBs for the Pats will get the carries they need (why Denver didn’t give CJ thirty carries I don’t know), and Gronk is healthy while Julius Thomas was not.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 135-75

By Spread: 109-99

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 800-430
By Spread: 647-569

NFL 2014 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Card Round

I am alive to go 11-0 against the spread for the playoffs! It is going to happen one of these years, perhaps it will be this one.

Patriots -7 over Ravens, 31-23

-This could easily be a tight game so the point spread scares me. But the Pats will be fresh and ready to go, hardly ever lose their first playoff game at home, and have a decided edge passing downfield on the Ravens’ abhorrent corner situation. I believe the Pats will keep extra blockers in on most plays to neutralize Dumervil and Suggs and win this game in a solid fashion.

Seahawks -11 over Panthers, 30-9

-The Panthers are having a hard time scoring right now. The Seahawks are not allowing anyone to score right now. Questions?

Packers -5.5 over Cowboys, 27-19

-I’m terrified of Rodgers’ calf, but overall I think the Packers are the much better team. Hopefully he stays upright and takes advantage of an overmatched Cowboys defense, especially in the secondary. I see Cobb and Nelson running wild deep in the Cowboys secondary. This is probably a stay away overall though because of the injury situation.

Colts +7.5 over Broncos, 24-23

-I’m delusional, ignore me. Broncos look broken and odd and the Colts are going to throw it all over the field and…okay, I’m done.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 131-75

By Spread: 107-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 796-430
By Spread: 645-567

NFL 2014 Week 17 Predictions

Week 17 Predictions

Ravens -9.5 over Browns, 20-10

-Browns are falling apart and the Ravens need this.

Jags +9.5 over Texans, 10-19

-Texans are still alive so they pull this through. But that is too many points to give.

Chargers +2.5 over Chiefs, 24-13

-The Chiefs having this whole “WRs not scoring TDs” thing is going to bite them.

Fins -5.5 over Jets, 20-10

-Bye Rex.

Bears +6.5 over Vikings, 20-23

-I mean, it’d be exciting to get Matt Forte 100 catches?

Pats -5 over Bills, 28-17

-Even with some starters not playing and without much to play for, Pats still win this one to stay sharp with a two week layoff upcoming.

Saints -4 over Bucs, 27-16

-Who knows anymore with the Saints? Well, we know the Bucs want that first pick. #MarcusMariota

Colts -7 over Titans, 30-10

-Titans are in “just lose baby” mode. Colts need to get it right before the post season, and they do so here.

Cowboys -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-13

-In past years, the Cowboys lose this game. But this year, they seem to have the formula down.

Falcons -4 over Panthers, 24-19

-Panthers just don’t have enough on offense in this winner take all game. The Falcons biggest weakness in pass defense is something the Panthers will struggle to take advantage of.

Packers -7.5 over Lions, 34-20

-No Raiola, and Detroit’s offense isn’t exactly humming right now. You have to assume the Packers will claim this division.

Raiders +14.5 over Broncos, 20-24

-Just a feeling a cover may be in order. The Raiders are showing they will be a competent team next year. Sparano deserves legit consideration

Cards +6 over 49ers, 21-20

-Too many points when one team needs it and the other is done. Jim may be gone by Monday.

Seahawks -12.5 over Rams, 27-10

-Seahawks will cream them and claim the overall seed. NFC playoffs go through Seattle.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Too many points in such an important game. The Bengals can still get a first round bye if something crazy happens with the Broncos.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-7

By Spread:  6-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 119-68

By Spread: 94-91

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 786-423
By Spread: 632-561

NFL 2014 Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 Predictions

Eagles -8.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-17

-I am not watching one second of this game. I think McCoy is a good daily league start though.

Chargers +3 over 49ers, 24-13

-He should go to Michigan, right?

Saints -6.5 over Falcons, 34-17

-The Falcons pass defense is abhorrent.

Chiefs +3.5 over Steelers, 20-17

-I don’t trust the Steelers. Or like them. Kansas City is going to have some offensive surprises for them. Heck, maybe even a WR will score!

Ravens -4 over Texans, 24-13

-Tom Savage? Thad Lewis? Case Keenum? Oi.

Packers -10 over Bucs, 41-17

-There is no end to how many points the Packers put up this week.

Lions -4.5 over Bears, 30-7

-Jimmy Clausen, meet Suh.

Panthers -3.5 over Browns, 22-10

-The Panthers need this and the Browns are probably already out of it.

Pats -10 over Jets, 28-10

-Probably an overall boring game, that is why I am projecting this to be so low.

Raiders +7.5 over Bills, 13-19

-Kyle Orton lays over a touchdown to NO team.

Colts +3.5 over Cowboys, 23-21

-Luck over a banged up Cowboys team on national TV GETTING over a FG? Yes please.

Seahawks -7.5 over Cards, 27-10

-Ryan Lindley everyone! Oh, I think he already threw an interception.

Broncos -3.5 over Bengals, 28-20

-Manning in prime time versus Dalton in prime time. I wish it were different, but I can’t ignore both clear histories here.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-2

By Spread:  4-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 113-61

By Spread: 88-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 780-416
By Spread: 626-554

NFL 2014 Week 8 Predictions

Week 8 Predictions

Lions -3.5 over Falcons, 24-13

-The Falcons are not very good, so this really doesn’t depend on Calvin being back or not.

Seahawks -6 over Panthers, 28-20

-The Seahawks won’t lose two in a row, especially to such a mediocre team.

Ravens -1 over Bengals, 24-14

-The Bengals are in a tailspin and the Ravens are a legit team.

Fins -6 over Jags, 31-17

-Jags got their win, but it won’t be two in a row. The Fins should put up some strong offensive numbers in this game.

Pats -6 over Bears, 28-20

-Weird line numbers, feels like more of a 3 point game. The Bears just aren’t quite right right now.

Rams +7 over Chiefs, 21-20

Rams are fiester than many are giving them credit for. They have won the majority of their last eight quarters of football…and those were against the Niners and Seahawks.

Bills +3 over Jets, 21-13

-I don’t understand why this line is favoring the 1-6 Jets over 4-3 Bills. I don’t get it. Take the free points.

Texans -3 over Titans, 20-13

-I actually think the Titans have more pieces than most folks would give them credit for, but they are starting a rookie QB. Tough to ride that over the experience the Texans bring.

Cards -2.5 over Eagles, 24-21

Really a clash of two philosophies, but the Cards have the downfield passing attack too. I have backed my Cards for about 2 years now, and am not jumping off now.

Raiders +7 over Browns, 20-23

-Just cover baby.

Colts -3 over Steelers, 26-21

-Steelers were surprisingly effective last week but overall these are two teams going in the wrong direction.

Cowboys -10 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-10

-Boring, but I am taking the layup here.

Packers +2.5 over Saints, 37-24

-Someone how I am getting points here. I love my Saints, but they have killed me all season and the Packers are heating up.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 53-32

By Spread: 42-41

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 719-387
By Spread: 580-511

NFL 2014 Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs, 30-17

-Even with Roddy out, this should be an easy win.

Chargers +2.5 over Bills, 27-19

-I neither fully understand nor believe in the Bills so far. I’ll take Rivers over Manuel.

Ravens -1.5 over Browns, 20-17

-Browns have worked really hard so far, but they don’t have enough here. Ravens might be a solid little team. That close loss to the Bengals looks much better in retrospect because the Bengals may be awesome.

Bengals -7 over Titans, 23-14

-Titans’ offense looked like a mess last week. The Bengals might be the best team in the league in the trenches.

Packers +2.5 over Lions, 37-34

-I have a rule. If the Packers are decent, have Aaron Rodgers, and they are getting points, you take it.

Colts -7 over Jags, 27-13

-Luck isn’t going 0-3, and he really isn’t going 0-3 versus the Jags.

Pats -14 over Raiders, 37-20

-Love Derek Carr, but I’m not stupid. This is probably another good game for special teams/defense/intangibles for the Pats. I like this team. It reminds me of the 2003-2004 Pats’ teams, with a well rounded roster.

Saints -10 over Vikings, 40-16

-I’m legitimately excited. Saints are going to EXPLODE.

Texans -2 over Giants, 19-16

-Not a vote of confidence in the Texans. I just dislike the Giants this much.

Eagles -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 30-20

-I like you Kirk, but not this much. The Eagles’ offense is too good.

Cards +3 over 49ers, 20-18

-I mean, maybe? I don’t trust Kaep and continue to love the Cards for some reason.

Fins -4 over Chiefs, 24-17

-Chiefs weren’t that good and are now hurt. Tannehill plays really well here.

Panthers -3 over Steelers, 20-10

-I still don’t believe in the Panthers and won’t even after they stomp all over Pittsburgh.

Seahawks -5 over Broncos, 31-13

-This happened recently, right? It worked out for me then. The Broncos had a decent chance at this….but then the Seahawks lost last week. It is in Seattle, and the Broncos look human so far.

Bears +3.5 over Jets, 20-19

-I am not convinced the Jets should be giving points to anyone right now. Cutler should light them up.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 3-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 14-11

By Spread: 10-15

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 678-366
By Spread: 548-485

NFL 2014 Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions

Lions +3 over Panthers, 23-19

-Derek Anderson was smoke and mirrors, and the Lions are good enough to at least get this close. I still don’t trust the Panthers to be able score at a level to keep up in this one.

Fins -1 over Bills, 21-17

-I wouldn’t put much stock in this one because the energy should be good at home with all their good news. But it is EJ Manuel against my boy Tannehill, and we know how I am picking that.

Jags +5 over Ethnic Slurs, 16-17

-Ugh, what a *fantastic* game to watch. The Jags are feisty and at one point RG3 was averaging 4 yards a pass last week. I’ll give the points a go.

Titans -3.5 over Cowboys, 27-17

-The Cowboys actively do not want to win.

Cards -3 over Giants, 21-14

-The Giants are bad. The Cards are scrappy. And Fitz will have more than 22 yards.

Saints -7 over Browns, 34-13

-Saints aren’t losing two in a row and the Browns used up all their tricks last week. We also know the Steelers aren’t that good now, so the Saints are a strong play.

Pats -3 over the Viks, 27-10

-With no Peterson, this should be a walk.

Falcons +5 over Bengals, 28-31

-With no Geno, I am taking the points in a shootout

Seahawks -6 over Chargers, 31-17

-10 days rest? Same time zone? Yes please.

Raiders +4.5 over Texans, 20-21

-I’ll take my boy Derek Carr at home as a dog versus Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road.

Packers -8 over Jets, 35-9

-This is delicious. Even better than Seahawks/Chargers. No way Packers go 0-2.

Chiefs +13 over Broncos, 24-33

-Wow crazy crazy. That’s a lot of points. I mean, the Broncos are going to win, but….13 points!

Colts -3 over the Eagles, 28-24

-No way Andrew Luck is going 0-2. The Eagles can’t start slow again and expect to win. I think we also see a lot of Ahmad Bradshaw over Trent Richardson, which is good for the offense and team.

I am not touching the Rams/Bucs game because I think both teams are terrible. And Bears/49ers depends if those receivers play or not.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 7-5

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 671-360
By Spread: 545-475

2014 NFL Season Preview

2014 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

AFC East – Patriots

-Boring I know, but this team is loaded, only the Dolphins are really threatening, and the schedule seemingly has broken nicely for the Pats. 12-13 wins easy, and the top seed in the AFC.

AFC North – Bengals

-Dominant lines, explosive playmakers, and troublesome issues for each of the division mates.

AFC South – Colts

-Luck. Locker. Fitzpatrick. Bortles. Let’s move along.

AFC West – Broncos

-Boring like the Pats, but makes the most sense. 11 wins easy. The West will better than people think so.

Wild Cards: Dolphins and Chargers

-Tannehill takes a step forward, and the Chargers remain offensively efficient while improving the pass defense.

AFC Championship – Patriots over Colts

NFC East – Eagles

-The Eagles are the most complete team. The Giants have little talent, the Ethnic Slurs have a bad defense, and the Cowboys are the Cowboys and destined to be 8-8.

NFC North – Packers

-This is a loaded division; the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers. They dominate the divisional matchups and maximize their most balanced offense in years.

NFC South – Saints

-I love this Saints team. They have a much better defense than they have had in past years, and Cooks evens out the offense. They get 13 wins and the top overall seed.

NFC West – Seahawks

-Tough break for the 49ers again, but Seattle gets

Wild Cards: Lions and Bears

-Both good teams, both would win just about any other division but are stuck with the Packers.

NFC Championship – Saints over Packers

-Quite a shootout, but the Saints have more balance and home field matters here.

Superbowl: Saints over Patriots

-I want to pick the Pats because of their improvements on defense, but the Saints have the look to me.

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-He is the best player, and will have the best statistical season efficiency wise. Manning will regress, and Brees/Brady have their most talented defenses in years so won’t press as much.

OPY: Drew Brees

-6000 yards and 60 Touchdowns is in play. You heard me.

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-He is a machine.

ORY: Brandin Cook

-He is going to have a crazy weird statline. I think 60 catches for 1150 yards and 10 TDs is in play.

DRY: Jadeveon Clowney

-What a monster. And he is getting single teamed because of Watt!

COY: Sean Payton

-General Saints dominance.

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465

NFL 2013 Week 16 Predictions

Texans +10.5 over Broncos, 21-31

-Just a covering situation. The Broncos have this swish cheese defense right now that probably keeps the Texans in the game.

Fins -2.5 over Bills,

-I believe in the 6^th seed bound Miami Dolphins. And I believe in Ryan Tannehill.

Bengals -8.5 over Vikings,

-8.5 is a lot. I feel dirty. Giovani Bernard has a big game here though.

Saints +3 over Panthers, 27-26

-Just taking the points. The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I think they burst the Panthers’ bubble again here.

Jags +5 over Titans, 20-16

-What is so different about these teams that there is a 5 point line, IN Jacksonville? I believe in Gus Bradley, and every game without Mojo is actually a good thing for Jacksonville at this point.

Seahawks -10.5 over Cards, 34-6

-Love the Cards, but not with all these injuries. I’m sitting every Cardinal I have because this is probably going to get ugly.

Lions -9.5 over Giants, 30-17

-Giants are done, and as bad as the Lions have been lately, they need this game. It is go time. If the Lions don’t win this, it’s over for them.

Pats +2.5 over Ravens, 21-20

-Pats getting points versus a team that may not have Rice or Flacco? I’ll just take them and know I’m covering.

Chargers -10 over Raiders, 31-13

-Such a bad defense, and the Chargers need this.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Packers -2.5 over Steelers, 24-21

-A team that needs it versus a team that does not.

49ers -13.5 over Falcons, 20-6

-The Falcons need to actively be trying to lose, and this should be accomplished by halftime here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:
Straight Up: 102-61
By Spread: 84-80

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 641-344
By Spread: 521-453

NFL 2013 Week 14 Predictions

Bills +3 over Bucs, 19-17

-Two bad teams with potential, so a FG seems right. That’s one road FG underdog I am taking this week….

Pats -11 over Browns, 30-16

-Who’s playing QB for the Browns? And at home too?

Lions +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I truly believe the Lions are better. And odds are sooner or later Foles throws that first pick (that isn’t called back on a stupid penalty). This is the second time I am taking a FG underdog on the road.

Colts +6.5 over Bengals, 20-22

-Just too many points for an Andrew Luck team.

Chiefs -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-17

-As Bill Simmons pointed out in his Cousin Sal podcast, the Chiefs’ winning this week means that they clinch the 5 seed and can rest the remaining part of the regular season. Weird.

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Third time here I am taking the FG over a home team, but in close games what choice do I have?

Ravens -7 over Vikings, 20-12

-Vikings should be ashamed of themselves, going 1-0-1 the last few weeks. They will start to lose soon, as they should.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders +3 over Jets, 17-3

-Make that four times….

Broncos -11.5 over Titans, 31-14

-Don’t like it, but I am taking the layup.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Giants +3 over Chargers, 27-26

-Make that five times….

Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 16-13

-Make that six times…..Seattle is just better

Rams +6 over Cards, 13-17

-Reports of Palmer possibly not playing are making me nervous.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 89-51
By Spread: 75-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 628-334
By Spread: 512-439